Re-thinking Polanco

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SammyKhalifa
Posts: 3630
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:19 am

Re-thinking Polanco

Post by SammyKhalifa »

297F697D726878737E695B7C767A727735781B0 wrote: My concern with bringing Polanco back is the opportunity cost, not the money he would be paid.  By potentially giving him 500 ABs next year, the club takes those ABs from young players.  That’s the actual cost of keeping him.  That should be the only consideration.  Him maybe helping to win a few more games next year will actually be a detriment to preparing for the years to come.



He’s not part of the future, the time when BC is looking to be competitive.  Releasing him today will serve the club better than any other decision.
Well that depends on what other upcoming outfielder would be using that time there instead.  Off the top of my head I can't think of many knocking at the door.
SCBucco
Posts: 1791
Joined: Tue Sep 13, 2016 11:47 am

Re-thinking Polanco

Post by SCBucco »

2A7C6A7E716B7B707D6A587F75797174367B180 wrote: The club option is for 12.5 million, not 11 million.



I've pointed out that the Pirates may be looking at it this way, from the lens of accounting games.



His buyout is 3 million. In essence, by keeping him, he's effectively a 9.5 million dollar player, because they save the buyout. His buyout for 2023 is only 1 million.



What does a 10.5 million dollar outfielder, a free agent type, look like?  If the club thinks Polanco can improve his arm, hit .225-.240, and 20 plus HR's, he may be worth keeping to them.



Remember, in the game today, the average batting average is about .235. If Polanco hits in that range, he may well seem worth it to them


The thing about Polanco that worries me as much as his bat is his arm.  You just can't have a good team with a rightfielder giving up extra bases constantly.  If he was even close to average throwing and could hit 250 with 25 homers then he is worth his option for next year.  especially since  at this point he would not be holding back anyone (Oliva?  Swaggerty?)




But even if Polanco could hit .250 with 25 HRs for the next two years, it hurts the team three years from now when they’re supposed to become competitive.  Time would’ve been taken away from whoever would take his place.  The team isn’t going to be very good in 2022-‘23 because there will be young guys learning to play at the big league level.  The team would be better off if one of those guys was in RF.




So, of our prospects, who is ready to start in RF? We don't have anyone ready next year IMO. You really aren't taking PT away from anyone, unless I'm missing someone.
Bobster21

Re-thinking Polanco

Post by Bobster21 »

5B4B4A7D6B6B67080 wrote: The club option is for 12.5 million, not 11 million.



I've pointed out that the Pirates may be looking at it this way, from the lens of accounting games.



His buyout is 3 million. In essence, by keeping him, he's effectively a 9.5 million dollar player, because they save the buyout. His buyout for 2023 is only 1 million.



What does a 10.5 million dollar outfielder, a free agent type, look like?  If the club thinks Polanco can improve his arm, hit .225-.240, and 20 plus HR's, he may be worth keeping to them.



Remember, in the game today, the average batting average is about .235. If Polanco hits in that range, he may well seem worth it to them


The thing about Polanco that worries me as much as his bat is his arm.  You just can't have a good team with a rightfielder giving up extra bases constantly.  If he was even close to average throwing and could hit 250 with 25 homers then he is worth his option for next year.  especially since  at this point he would not be holding back anyone (Oliva?  Swaggerty?)




But even if Polanco could hit .250 with 25 HRs for the next two years, it hurts the team three years from now when they’re supposed to become competitive.  Time would’ve been taken away from whoever would take his place.  The team isn’t going to be very good in 2022-‘23 because there will be young guys learning to play at the big league level.  The team would be better off if one of those guys was in RF.




So, of our prospects, who is ready to start in RF?  We don't have anyone ready next year IMO.  You really aren't taking PT away from anyone, unless I'm missing someone.
Park and Marcano can both play OF. And even if OF doesn't turn out to be their primary position it would be a way to get them a season full of ABs a year before a possibly competitive season in 2023. Polanco would be blocking that.
2drfischer@gmail.c

Re-thinking Polanco

Post by 2drfischer@gmail.c »

74464A4A5E6C4F464B4E4146270 wrote: My concern with bringing Polanco back is the opportunity cost, not the money he would be paid.  By potentially giving him 500 ABs next year, the club takes those ABs from young players.  That’s the actual cost of keeping him.  That should be the only consideration.  Him maybe helping to win a few more games next year will actually be a detriment to preparing for the years to come.



He’s not part of the future, the time when BC is looking to be competitive.  Releasing him today will serve the club better than any other decision.
Well that depends on what other upcoming outfielder would be using that time there instead.  Off the top of my head I can't think of many knocking at the door.


The club must think a lot of Park since he's been put on the major league roster since being acquired. He played in RF yesterday so they must think he's capable, or are willing to at least find out. I'd continue to start him there until he shows one way or another he can or can't be successful. There's nothing to lose.
2drfischer@gmail.c

Re-thinking Polanco

Post by 2drfischer@gmail.c »

1303023523232F400 wrote: The club option is for 12.5 million, not 11 million.



I've pointed out that the Pirates may be looking at it this way, from the lens of accounting games.



His buyout is 3 million. In essence, by keeping him, he's effectively a 9.5 million dollar player, because they save the buyout. His buyout for 2023 is only 1 million.



What does a 10.5 million dollar outfielder, a free agent type, look like?  If the club thinks Polanco can improve his arm, hit .225-.240, and 20 plus HR's, he may be worth keeping to them.



Remember, in the game today, the average batting average is about .235. If Polanco hits in that range, he may well seem worth it to them


The thing about Polanco that worries me as much as his bat is his arm.  You just can't have a good team with a rightfielder giving up extra bases constantly.  If he was even close to average throwing and could hit 250 with 25 homers then he is worth his option for next year.  especially since  at this point he would not be holding back anyone (Oliva?  Swaggerty?)




But even if Polanco could hit .250 with 25 HRs for the next two years, it hurts the team three years from now when they’re supposed to become competitive.  Time would’ve been taken away from whoever would take his place.  The team isn’t going to be very good in 2022-‘23 because there will be young guys learning to play at the big league level.  The team would be better off if one of those guys was in RF.




So, of our prospects, who is ready to start in RF?  We don't have anyone ready next year IMO.  You really aren't taking PT away from anyone, unless I'm missing someone.


Giving playing time to one or more guys, Park primarily, who have the chance of helping in the future is far better than continuing to play a guy who won't be here when the team is competitive again.  Polanco is the past.
rucker59@gmail.com

Re-thinking Polanco

Post by rucker59@gmail.com »

376177636C76666D6077456268646C692B66050 wrote: The club option is for 12.5 million, not 11 million.



I've pointed out that the Pirates may be looking at it this way, from the lens of accounting games.



His buyout is 3 million. In essence, by keeping him, he's effectively a 9.5 million dollar player, because they save the buyout. His buyout for 2023 is only 1 million.



What does a 10.5 million dollar outfielder, a free agent type, look like?  If the club thinks Polanco can improve his arm, hit .225-.240, and 20 plus HR's, he may be worth keeping to them.



Remember, in the game today, the average batting average is about .235. If Polanco hits in that range, he may well seem worth it to them


The thing about Polanco that worries me as much as his bat is his arm.  You just can't have a good team with a rightfielder giving up extra bases constantly.  If he was even close to average throwing and could hit 250 with 25 homers then he is worth his option for next year.  especially since  at this point he would not be holding back anyone (Oliva?  Swaggerty?)




But even if Polanco could hit .250 with 25 HRs for the next two years, it hurts the team three years from now when they’re supposed to become competitive.  Time would’ve been taken away from whoever would take his place.  The team isn’t going to be very good in 2022-‘23 because there will be young guys learning to play at the big league level.  The team would be better off if one of those guys was in RF.




So, of our prospects, who is ready to start in RF?  We don't have anyone ready next year IMO.  You really aren't taking PT away from anyone, unless I'm missing someone.


Giving playing time to one or more guys, Park primarily, who have the chance of helping in the future is far better than continuing to play a guy who won't be here when the team is competitive again.  Polanco is the past.


Regardless of my feelings about polanco (I’d still like for him to be a productive player), this post is spot on.
Bobster21

Re-thinking Polanco

Post by Bobster21 »

484F59515F480F037A5D575B5356145955573A0 wrote: The club option is for 12.5 million, not 11 million.



I've pointed out that the Pirates may be looking at it this way, from the lens of accounting games.



His buyout is 3 million. In essence, by keeping him, he's effectively a 9.5 million dollar player, because they save the buyout. His buyout for 2023 is only 1 million.



What does a 10.5 million dollar outfielder, a free agent type, look like?  If the club thinks Polanco can improve his arm, hit .225-.240, and 20 plus HR's, he may be worth keeping to them.



Remember, in the game today, the average batting average is about .235. If Polanco hits in that range, he may well seem worth it to them


The thing about Polanco that worries me as much as his bat is his arm.  You just can't have a good team with a rightfielder giving up extra bases constantly.  If he was even close to average throwing and could hit 250 with 25 homers then he is worth his option for next year.  especially since  at this point he would not be holding back anyone (Oliva?  Swaggerty?)




But even if Polanco could hit .250 with 25 HRs for the next two years, it hurts the team three years from now when they’re supposed to become competitive.  Time would’ve been taken away from whoever would take his place.  The team isn’t going to be very good in 2022-‘23 because there will be young guys learning to play at the big league level.  The team would be better off if one of those guys was in RF.




So, of our prospects, who is ready to start in RF?  We don't have anyone ready next year IMO.  You really aren't taking PT away from anyone, unless I'm missing someone.


Giving playing time to one or more guys, Park primarily, who have the chance of helping in the future is far better than continuing to play a guy who won't be here when the team is competitive again.  Polanco is the past.


Regardless of my feelings about polanco (I’d still like for him to be a productive player), this post is spot on.
I agree. i never thought we'd be having a discussion this year about whether the Pirates should keep him. And this only started after he had a good week and raised his BA from .202 to .211. But that week is not a sign of anything. He had a good week in April. Another one in May. His entire career has been marked by occasional, brief spurts between long slumps. He can barely throw the ball anymore 2 years since his shoulder injury. If the ability to throw hasn't returned by now, it's not going to. He made an incredible leaping catch the other day to rob a HR and save the game. But unfortunately, what stands out about that is how unusual it is to see him be even adequate in the OF.



He's due 12.5 mil next year with a 3 mil buyout and 13.5 mil in 2023 with a 1 mil buyout. We expect to see the team improved in 2022 but the best realistic expectation for a competitive team is 2023. To keep him on the team thru 2023 would cost Ebenezer Nutting 26 million. For a guy who might occasionally have brief spurts of adequacy. And that is not on Nutting's radar. To keep Polanco thru 1 more losing season in 2022 costs 12.5 million and then another million to buy him out in 2023. There doesn't seem to be a logical reason for that expenditure. It's hard to imagine any reason why the Pirates will not cut their losses with Polanco and buy him out for the 3 million. I don't see a good week right now changing that.
JollyRoger
Posts: 1469
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 8:31 pm

Re-thinking Polanco

Post by JollyRoger »

This post has drifted off course from original intent.

It was not suggested that the Pirates resign and keep Polanco.

The question posed was that if Polanco was able to keep up this “hot streak” that he has a chance to hit 20 HR with 20 SB. That type of production has value. BC would be in a better position to find a suiter for Polanco and possibly get a lower level high upside prospect which is better than throwing away $3M and getting absolutely nothing in return. Therefore it would make sense to play Polanco in August and see what direction he goes
2drfischer@gmail.c

Re-thinking Polanco

Post by 2drfischer@gmail.c »

103D30212637206063520 wrote: The club option is for 12.5 million, not 11 million.



I've pointed out that the Pirates may be looking at it this way, from the lens of accounting games.



His buyout is 3 million. In essence, by keeping him, he's effectively a 9.5 million dollar player, because they save the buyout. His buyout for 2023 is only 1 million.



What does a 10.5 million dollar outfielder, a free agent type, look like?  If the club thinks Polanco can improve his arm, hit .225-.240, and 20 plus HR's, he may be worth keeping to them.



Remember, in the game today, the average batting average is about .235. If Polanco hits in that range, he may well seem worth it to them


The thing about Polanco that worries me as much as his bat is his arm.  You just can't have a good team with a rightfielder giving up extra bases constantly.  If he was even close to average throwing and could hit 250 with 25 homers then he is worth his option for next year.  especially since  at this point he would not be holding back anyone (Oliva?  Swaggerty?)




But even if Polanco could hit .250 with 25 HRs for the next two years, it hurts the team three years from now when they’re supposed to become competitive.  Time would’ve been taken away from whoever would take his place.  The team isn’t going to be very good in 2022-‘23 because there will be young guys learning to play at the big league level.  The team would be better off if one of those guys was in RF.




So, of our prospects, who is ready to start in RF?  We don't have anyone ready next year IMO.  You really aren't taking PT away from anyone, unless I'm missing someone.


Giving playing time to one or more guys, Park primarily, who have the chance of helping in the future is far better than continuing to play a guy who won't be here when the team is competitive again.  Polanco is the past.


Regardless of my feelings about polanco (I’d still like for him to be a productive player), this post is spot on.
I agree. i never thought we'd be having a discussion this year about whether the Pirates should keep him. And this only started after he had a good week and raised his BA from .202 to .211. But that week is not a sign of anything. He had a good week in April. Another one in May. His entire career has been marked by occasional, brief spurts between long slumps. He can barely throw the ball anymore 2 years since his shoulder injury. If the ability to throw hasn't returned by now, it's not going to. He made an incredible leaping catch the other day to rob a HR and save the game. But unfortunately, what stands out about that is how unusual it is to see him be even adequate in the OF.



He's due 12.5 mil next year with a 3 mil buyout and 13.5 mil in 2023 with a 1 mil buyout. We expect to see the team improved in 2022 but the best realistic expectation for a competitive team is 2023. To keep him on the team thru 2023 would cost Ebenezer Nutting 26 million. For a guy who might occasionally have brief spurts of adequacy. And that is not on Nutting's radar. To keep Polanco thru 1 more losing season in 2022 costs 12.5 million and then another million to buy him out in 2023. There doesn't seem to be a logical reason for that expenditure. It's hard to imagine any reason why the Pirates will not cut their losses with Polanco and buy him out for the 3 million. [highlight]I don't see a good week right now changing that.[/highlight] 


His "good" week has consisted of four singles. He's had six hits in the past week and a half, none of them for extra bases.  That's how far we've lowered our expectations for him. 
2drfischer@gmail.c

Re-thinking Polanco

Post by 2drfischer@gmail.c »

113437372209343C3E295B0 wrote: This post has drifted off course from original intent.

It was not suggested that the Pirates resign and keep Polanco.

The question posed was that if Polanco was able to keep up this “hot streak” that he has a chance to hit 20 HR with 20 SB. That type of production has value. BC would be in a better position to find a suiter for Polanco and possibly get a lower level high upside prospect which is better than throwing away $3M and getting absolutely nothing in return. [highlight]Therefore it would make sense to play Polanco in August and see what direction he goes[/highlight]


Polanco has been playing since April with the hope that he would show another GM he's worth acquiring. It hasn't gone well, and I wouldn't expect anything to change in August. He's not capable. And again, the at bats and game experience that he's taking away from another player outweighs the benefit of a throw away player BC acquires in return. Releasing him before tonight's game is the absolute best decision the Pirates can make for their future.
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