Super Nova or a flameout?

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rucker59@gmail.com

Super Nova or a flameout?

Post by rucker59@gmail.com »

Nova ineffective again today.  5 runs in 5 innings.  2 HRs. 



His ERA this year is in the neighborhood of his numbers with the Yankees in 2016.  Certainly he no longer bears any resemblance to his 2016 with the Pirates or the first couple months this season.



Pirates on the hook for $9+M each of the next two years.  Needless to say, in Pirate language, this is a TERRIBLE contract suddenly. 



What do the Pirates do with Nova and what could the impact be on 2018?
DemDog

Super Nova or a flameout?

Post by DemDog »

For now I think they are stuck with him. His signing to the 3 yr deal looked great at the beginning of the season and most of us here liked it. Did not turn out as well as we had hoped so just stick with him at least to start 2018 and see what shakes out with him.
rucker59@gmail.com

Super Nova or a flameout?

Post by rucker59@gmail.com »

5D7C745D767E190 wrote: For now I think they are stuck with him.  His signing to the 3 yr deal looked great at the beginning of the season and most of us here liked it.  Did not turn out as well as we had hoped so just stick with him at least to start 2018 and see what shakes out with him.


I expect the Pirates will try to move him this winter.  I don't have a problem starting next season with him in the rotation, but I suspect the FO likes internal options better and would love to shed this contract. 



I just hope it doesn't take too many top 10 prospects to move him! ;)
mouse
Posts: 1728
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:46 pm

Super Nova or a flameout?

Post by mouse »

He may have Jeff Locke syndrome. If he's really strong next year up to the All Star break they should definitely look to trade him.
dmetz
Posts: 1687
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 4:52 pm

Super Nova or a flameout?

Post by dmetz »

There was always a significant chance he would fall back to a back of the rotation starter.



I think he's fine for a 4-5 and will be in our awesome, no fixes needed rotation next year


INbuc
Posts: 752
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:47 am

Super Nova or a flameout?

Post by INbuc »

4641575F5146010D745359555D581A575B59340 wrote: Nova ineffective again today.  5 runs in 5 innings.  2 HRs. 



His ERA this year is in the neighborhood of his numbers with the Yankees in 2016.  Certainly he no longer bears any resemblance to his 2016 with the Pirates or the first couple months this season.



Pirates on the hook for $9+M each of the next two years.  Needless to say, in Pirate language, this is a TERRIBLE contract suddenly. 



What do the Pirates do with Nova and what could the impact be on 2018?


Nova has become our Mike Leake. Leake's ERA has been 5.97 with a WHIP of 1.62 since the break --numbers not far off from Nova's second half. However, the Cards owed Leake 53M over the next 3 years. With Reyes, Weaver, and other options available at league minimum, they traded Leake at the first opportunity. That is exactly what the Pirates should do with Nova. We have cheaper and BETTER options available.



If we are never going to acquire an ace level pitcher, we can't afford to run a Nova, Locke, or Liriano out to the mound every fifth day. Unfortunately, as we discovered with Liriano, the higher the salary the trickier the exit strategy.
rucker59@gmail.com

Super Nova or a flameout?

Post by rucker59@gmail.com »

484F637462010 wrote: Nova ineffective again today.  5 runs in 5 innings.  2 HRs. 



His ERA this year is in the neighborhood of his numbers with the Yankees in 2016.  Certainly he no longer bears any resemblance to his 2016 with the Pirates or the first couple months this season.



Pirates on the hook for $9+M each of the next two years.  Needless to say, in Pirate language, this is a TERRIBLE contract suddenly. 



What do the Pirates do with Nova and what could the impact be on 2018?


Nova has become our Mike Leake.  Leake's ERA has been 5.97 with a WHIP of 1.62 since the break --numbers not far off from Nova's second half.  However, the Cards owed Leake 53M over the next 3 years.  With Reyes, Weaver, and other options available at league minimum, they traded Leake at the first opportunity.  That is exactly what the Pirates should do with Nova.  We have cheaper and BETTER options available.



If we are never going to acquire an ace level pitcher, we can't afford to run a Nova, Locke, or Liriano out to the mound every fifth day.   Unfortunately, as we discovered with Liriano, the higher the salary the trickier the exit strategy. 




Leake is a good look at whether the Pirates can move Nova. The thing that concerns me about trying to move Him is that no one was really pursuing him in the off season. for that reason only he fell in the Pirates lap.



Your comment about having to lift up the back end of our rotation since we don't have a real top end, Is also very good.
dogknot17@yahoo.co

Super Nova or a flameout?

Post by dogknot17@yahoo.co »

It seems to me the Pirates knew the market on Nova and got him at their price for a reason. He is average and is getting paid like an average starting pitcher with his tenure.



I hope his second half performance is due to the team's record. The Pirates went down hill. The energy can go away real quickly. Nova is under contract. I don't know. I just hope that is the case. He is just trying to finish the season.


notes34
Posts: 856
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:10 am

Super Nova or a flameout?

Post by notes34 »

Nova is what he is. He will throw lots of innings while not issuing many walks. He is going to give up lots of base hits. If he is on and hitting his spots, I think he will be OK. I like what Williams and Kuhl are doing right now, I would trade Nova if possible if someone is willing to give up anything.(We would have to eat salary to get anything I'm sure.) If not plug him into the 5 spot and roll with him for next year. He will at times throw a gem and at others get destroyed.
MaineBucs
Posts: 1145
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:51 pm

Super Nova or a flameout?

Post by MaineBucs »

I was one of the ones who crowed about Nova's early season performances with the Pirates, particularly when he threw several complete games at the end of last season and the start of this season. The 3 year deal he signed appeared to be a great contract at the time in terms of production, cost and length of the deal.



Unfortunately, a baseball season is 162 games long. Nova's early success is barely a memory. He is now regularly getting rocked and rocked hard. He now doesn't go deep into games, is walking batters or going deep into counts, is giving up home-runs and he is not even a decent # 5 starter. While Nova could rebound, there also is some likelihood that he could regress further.



While this may sound a bit along the lines of what have you done for me lately, if I am the Bucs, I do everything I can to trade him this off-season. The main goal is salary relief. Perhaps the Bucs can pair some international bonus money with him to move him without having to eat much money. The fact that he is signed for only 2 more years may (read may) make him a reasonable alternative for some teams.


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