Paul Skenes article

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bucs607179
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Paul Skenes article

Post by bucs607179 »

If anyone gets a chance you may enjoy the sport section of USA Today, 5/20.

Great article on Skenes. He was once an Air Force cadet. As a Navy man I won't hold it against him. ;)
Surgnbuck
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Re: Paul Skenes article

Post by Surgnbuck »

bucs607179 wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 5:32 pm If anyone gets a chance you may enjoy the sport section of USA Today, 5/20.

Great article on Skenes. He was once an Air Force cadet. As a Navy man I won't hold it against him. ;)
Navy? In Navy boot camp, they have a new qualification test, that measures critical thinking, and fine motor skills. They have to complete a jigsaw puzzle within three weeks. So far, everyone has passed, though the fastest anyone has done it is in 2 weeks and 4 days.

The Navy takes exceptional pride in this, because the top of the box says, "2-4 years".
bucs607179
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Re: Paul Skenes article

Post by bucs607179 »

Surgnbuck wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 11:34 pm
bucs607179 wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 5:32 pm If anyone gets a chance you may enjoy the sport section of USA Today, 5/20.

Great article on Skenes. He was once an Air Force cadet. As a Navy man I won't hold it against him. ;)
Navy? In Navy boot camp, they have a new qualification test, that measures critical thinking, and fine motor skills. They have to complete a jigsaw puzzle within three weeks. So far, everyone has passed, though the fastest anyone has done it is in 2 weeks and 4 days.

The Navy takes exceptional pride in this, because the top of the box says, "2-4 years".
That was funny once I got it. I'd have never made it today. I HATE jigsaw puzzles.
fjk090852-7
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Re: Paul Skenes article

Post by fjk090852-7 »

Paul Skenes is a very special pitcher, and while watching the game tonight I thought the Pirates should approach him this offseason with a fair contract offer. Make him a proposal that would pay him much more than what he would receive during those first years when the team holds the salary rights. Include in the proposal the following 3 years when he is eligible for arbitration. Something like eighty million over six years. A contract such as that would give him much more money over the first three years than he would receive if the Pirates were just renewing his contract those first 3 years.
Doc
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Re: Paul Skenes article

Post by Doc »

fjk090852-7 wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 12:47 am Paul Skenes is a very special pitcher, and while watching the game tonight I thought the Pirates should approach him this offseason with a fair contract offer. Make him a proposal that would pay him much more than what he would receive during those first years when the team holds the salary rights. Include in the proposal the following 3 years when he is eligible for arbitration. Something like eighty million over six years. A contract such as that would give him much more money over the first three years than he would receive if the Pirates were just renewing his contract those first 3 years.
Nice sentiment, but Skenes would be nuts to take such an offer, and his agent would be doing him a tremendous disservice to advise him to do so. Instead, if he simply plays for the minimum for his first three years, and he remains the pitcher he’s been thus far, he’ll earn between $35-$50 million over his three arbitration years. Then, in his seventh year, when he hits free agency, he may well get a $300 million deal from a real major league team. If he took the Pirates deal you suggest, he’d still have two years with the Pirates, playing under that $80 million contract.
fjk090852-7
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Re: Paul Skenes article

Post by fjk090852-7 »

Doc wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 1:41 am
fjk090852-7 wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 12:47 am Paul Skenes is a very special pitcher, and while watching the game tonight I thought the Pirates should approach him this offseason with a fair contract offer. Make him a proposal that would pay him much more than what he would receive during those first years when the team holds the salary rights. Include in the proposal the following 3 years when he is eligible for arbitration. Something like eighty million over six years. A contract such as that would give him much more money over the first three years than he would receive if the Pirates were just renewing his contract those first 3 years.
Nice sentiment, but Skenes would be nuts to take such an offer, and his agent would be doing him a tremendous disservice to advise him to do so. Instead, if he simply plays for the minimum for his first three years, and he remains the pitcher he’s been thus far, he’ll earn between $35-$50 million over his three arbitration years. Then, in his seventh year, when he hits free agency, he may well get a $300 million deal from a real major league team. If he took the Pirates deal you suggest, he’d still have two years with the Pirates, playing under that $80 million contract.
Maybe my suggestion is confusing. the 80 million covers every year up to free agency. He gets much more money those first three years than he would get under the current Labor Agreement.
Doc
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Re: Paul Skenes article

Post by Doc »

fjk090852-7 wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 3:18 am
Doc wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 1:41 am
fjk090852-7 wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 12:47 am Paul Skenes is a very special pitcher, and while watching the game tonight I thought the Pirates should approach him this offseason with a fair contract offer. Make him a proposal that would pay him much more than what he would receive during those first years when the team holds the salary rights. Include in the proposal the following 3 years when he is eligible for arbitration. Something like eighty million over six years. A contract such as that would give him much more money over the first three years than he would receive if the Pirates were just renewing his contract those first 3 years.
Nice sentiment, but Skenes would be nuts to take such an offer, and his agent would be doing him a tremendous disservice to advise him to do so. Instead, if he simply plays for the minimum for his first three years, and he remains the pitcher he’s been thus far, he’ll earn between $35-$50 million over his three arbitration years. Then, in his seventh year, when he hits free agency, he may well get a $300 million deal from a real major league team. If he took the Pirates deal you suggest, he’d still have two years with the Pirates, playing under that $80 million contract.
Maybe my suggestion is confusing. the 80 million covers every year up to free agency. He gets much more money those first three years than he would get under the current Labor Agreement.
Your suggestion wasn't confusing. You explained that Skenes would make $80 million over six years, beginning next year, a total of seven years. If he were to be paid under my scenario, he would earn around $2.5 million during his first three years, between $35-50 million over the next three, and then receive a $300 million deal in his seventh year. If that $300 million deal was to be for seven years, he'd earn over $40 million in the first year alone. That would mean instead of earning $80 million from the Pirates during his first seven years, he could earn north of $90 million by waiting until he hits free agency.

If he continues pitching like he has, he'll earn record contracts during his arbitration years, possibly more each year than he'd make under the Pirates $80 million deal. Then, when he reached free agency, with the big franchises bidding for him, he'll break the bank. It's not crazy to think that one of those teams will offer him $50 million per year six years from now.
Bobster
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Re: Paul Skenes article

Post by Bobster »

fjk090852-7 wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 3:18 am
Doc wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 1:41 am
fjk090852-7 wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 12:47 am Paul Skenes is a very special pitcher, and while watching the game tonight I thought the Pirates should approach him this offseason with a fair contract offer. Make him a proposal that would pay him much more than what he would receive during those first years when the team holds the salary rights. Include in the proposal the following 3 years when he is eligible for arbitration. Something like eighty million over six years. A contract such as that would give him much more money over the first three years than he would receive if the Pirates were just renewing his contract those first 3 years.
Nice sentiment, but Skenes would be nuts to take such an offer, and his agent would be doing him a tremendous disservice to advise him to do so. Instead, if he simply plays for the minimum for his first three years, and he remains the pitcher he’s been thus far, he’ll earn between $35-$50 million over his three arbitration years. Then, in his seventh year, when he hits free agency, he may well get a $300 million deal from a real major league team. If he took the Pirates deal you suggest, he’d still have two years with the Pirates, playing under that $80 million contract.
Maybe my suggestion is confusing. the 80 million covers every year up to free agency. He gets much more money those first three years than he would get under the current Labor Agreement.
Unless I'm misreading it, it doesn't look like your suggestion buys out any free agency years. If that's the case, then it's just a matter of paying him enough when the team has complete salary control to make it worth Skenes' while to forego arbitration. And the Pirates would probably have to pay him so much in those first couple years that they might not save money by buying out his arb years.

Something else to consider: Skenes arrived in early May so it's almost certain he will qualify for Super 2 status, which makes him eligible for arb after 2 service years instead of after the usual 3. Normally a player who doesn't arrive in MLB until early May has already missed enough of the season to avoid counting the rookie season as a service year. But in the last CBA, they enacted the service time manipulation rule, which says if a player finishes 1st or 2nd in his league's ROY voting, that rookie season counts as a service year regardless of how much or how little time he spent on the roster. As of now, it looks like Skenes will finish 1st or 2nd in ROY voting.

So there's one scenario where Skenes' first 6 service years do not include 2024 but rather consist of 2025 thru 2030 with arbitration after 2026 (Super 2) and free agency effective 2031.

There's a more likely scenario that Skenes' first 6 service years consist of 2024 thru 2029 with arbitration after 2025 (Super 2) and free agency effective 2030.

In either case, it's likely Skenes will get minimum pay for only his first 2 seasons (whether that counts as 2024-2025 or 2025-2026) and arbitration for the next 4. And with each good start, he looks increasingly like a top ROY candidate and that would mean his pre-arbitration years are only 2024-2025. And 2024 is already half over. So they would essentially have to pay him so much than required for 2025 that it's worth his while to agree on a salary for 2026 until free agency in 2030 instead of having arbitration for 2026-2029. I don't see Nutting offering such a huge deal that Skenes gives up arbitration. And I don't see Skenes giving up arbitration for anything less than a mega deal. And we aren't even talking about buying out free agency years.
There's no basement in the Alamo.
Ecbucs
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Re: Paul Skenes article

Post by Ecbucs »

Jones will also get a full season for this year so the Bucs will be on the hook for some high pitcher salaries (which means they have done well).

For some reason I am optimistic today (takes 7 homers to make that happen) and Skenes should be front runner for rookie of year getting the Bucs an extra draft pick next year.
fjk090852-7
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Re: Paul Skenes article

Post by fjk090852-7 »

In my opinion when the time comes to tender a contract to Skenes this offseason the Pirates should break precedent and give Skenes more money than the minimum for a player with one year of service. Don’t break the bank, but make him feel the team appreciates the work he did this year. He is well worth it.
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