The Witt Contract

[JollyRoger8]

Now BC and Nutting know what it will take to extend Oneil Cruz
KC just signed Witt to an 11 year extension for $288M

2024:$2M
2025:$7M
2026:$13M
2027:$19M
2028:$30M
2029:$35M
2030:$35M
2031:$35M Player Option
2032:$35M Player Option
2033:$35M Player Option
2034:$35M Player Option

In addition there are 3 additional team options
Pirates could do a similar contract with Cruz given the low initial dollars.
I do not know if the Witt contract had a no trade clause

[Bobster]

Now BC and Nutting know what it will take to extend Oneil Cruz
KC just signed Witt to an 11 year extension for $288M

2024:$2M
2025:$7M
2026:$13M
2027:$19M
2028:$30M
2029:$35M
2030:$35M
2031:$35M Player Option
2032:$35M Player Option
2033:$35M Player Option
2034:$35M Player Option

In addition there are 3 additional team options
Pirates could do a similar contract with Cruz given the low initial dollars.
I do not know if the Witt contract had a no trade clause

Step 1 is for Cruz to have the type of season Witt just had. We all hope he will, but he has to be paid for performance, not just potential.

[JollyRoger8]

True
Witt put up 30HR, 49SB, 96 RBI’s, .276 avg and 4.4 WAR
Cruz potentially can meet or exceed those numbers.
If he is on track in 2024 to meet or better those numbers then the Bucs would be wise to lock him up
If KC can do it then Pittsburgh can

[Surgnbuck]

Still had 4 years of control I believe. They will deal him by 2027. They'll impress me when they keep him for a couple of the 30 million plus years.I'll remain skeptical that this is nothing more than Giancarlo Stanton 2.0. Makes a nice splash with the season ticket holders. Their only gamble is if he is just so-so, they'll have to pick up more of the cost when he's traded. If he keeps playing well, his value as a trade piece, and being able to dump the entire contract, goes up.

No, don't try and sell me they are doing something that the Pirates should. Isn't the mantra around Bucco Nation "follow the money"? Look carefully at each of those first four years, which would have been this season at a bonus level over league minimum, then his three arbitration years.

Don't pretend for one minute that you don't know what KC is doing. They have no intentions of paying anymore than 41 million at most of this contract. It's the same thing the Dodgers are doing in a way with Ohtani, except in this instance, the big money down the road will be coming from another team.

[Bobster]

Still had 4 years of control I believe. They will deal him by 2027. They'll impress me when they keep him for a couple of the 30 million plus years.I'll remain skeptical that this is nothing more than Giancarlo Stanton 2.0. Makes a nice splash with the season ticket holders. Their only gamble is if he is just so-so, they'll have to pick up more of the cost when he's traded. If he keeps playing well, his value as a trade piece, and being able to dump the entire contract, goes up.

No, don't try and sell me they are doing something that the Pirates should. Isn't the mantra around Bucco Nation "follow the money"? Look carefully at each of those first four years, which would have been this season at a bonus level over league minimum, then his three arbitration years.

Don't pretend for one minute that you don't know what KC is doing. They have no intentions of paying anymore than 41 million at most of this contract. It's the same thing the Dodgers are doing in a way with Ohtani, except in this instance, the big money down the road will be coming from another team.

Cruz is a FA effective 2029. So, in theory, the Pirates have 5 more years of control. And that would involve arbitration in 2026, '27 and '28. If Cruz turns out to be a stud player, the Pirates will not pay what an arbitrator would decide is market value. IMHO, they might do 1 of those seasons at most but not more than that. I think if they were forced to pay him 20 million or so in 2026, Nutting will be anxious to move him by 2027.

The best solution would be to offer him an extension early in the 2024 season. Buy out his arb years and maybe 1 FA year with a club option. It would have to be generous enough that Cruz would think it was worth giving up his arb years for the guaranteed money just in case injuries or poor performance lowers his market value. The benefit to the Pirates is that they could afford (by the outer extent of their standards) to keep him thru his arb years and even 1 FA year. If he turns out to be a bust, they could have a club option to release him that year. If he's a stud by then, the Pirates would control him until trading him at the TDL before he walks.

Such an extension would have to be offered soon. Because if he becomes too good too soon, he'll just wait for thew paydays he won't get from Nutting.