What would another GM do?

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dmetz
Posts: 1687
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 4:52 pm

What would another GM do?

Post by dmetz »

That makes sense. I don't think we should sell off anyway. I think Cutch should be traded. Otherwise I would not be selling.


SammyKhalifa
Posts: 3631
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:19 am

What would another GM do?

Post by SammyKhalifa »

303931202E540 wrote: That makes sense.  I don't think we should sell off anyway.  I think Cutch should be traded.   Otherwise I would not be selling. 






What should we do now though?  We're kinda falling between two stools.  Marte could as least have done us the courtesy of getting busted for cheating during the offseason.
Bobster21

What would another GM do?

Post by Bobster21 »

0F3D31312517343D30353A3D5C0 wrote: That makes sense.  I don't think we should sell off anyway.  I think Cutch should be traded.   Otherwise I would not be selling. 


What should we do now though?  We're kinda falling between two stools.  Marte could as least have done us the courtesy of getting busted for cheating during the offseason.


Probably not a lot that can or should be done now. It would be great to have an impact hitter to replace Marte and/or Kang in the lineup. But that type of hitter costs a lot in terms of who you have to trade for him as well as adding to payroll. And Marte will be back in July and no one knows what Kang's status is. What seems reasonable to me is to acquire a competent, serviceable outfielder to handle RF until Marte returns. I would look at reserve outfielders on other teams and see what is available. That would require only a minor deal and add less payroll. I know the Orioles platoon in both LF and RF and have a slew of outfielders who don't play everyday. I'm sure there are plenty of teams that would listen to a deal for a backup outfielder.
Tintin
Posts: 320
Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2016 11:16 pm

What would another GM do?

Post by Tintin »

7E757D7174756E2B2D5A637B7275753479751A0 wrote: There is absolutely no reason to sell at this point in the season.  It's April.  The return on McCutchen, Cole, or others isn't going to be more now than at the trade deadline.  Wait another month or two and see what you've got.  Both at the MLB level and at AAA.


How does that math work?   if a trade COULD be made now with 5 months of ball left in 2017, the return wouldn't be stronger than 2 months of 2017?   I don't understand



What is the arbitrary calendar line you guys make with respect to when returns are best? 



Do you get good returns on trades in January, but then April 14th, value all turns to dust, only to re-ignite in July?   



There's just so many rules!   Don't trade "prospects"! Don't trade between Opening day and July!  Don't trade when on a Tuesday  following a full moon, etc..   


I can try to answer this:



Come July, teams know if you are in it or not and if they should buy or sell for the stretch run.  In April, all teams probably think they are in it as the team was just put together.



Teams seem to overpay to make that run and offer more at the deadline in July.  Teams also know who is on the market and battle each other for players making their market go up.



Salary comes into play too.  Why pay McCutchen $13 million when you can get him in July for $7 million and be in the same situation?



You rarely see teams make big trades in April.  There has to be a reason why, right?  This isn't a new sport or business.   






You also know what you need in July.... and teams have more urgency. You see them coming off unneeded or young talent for guys that will play with them for 2 months.

It's simple supply and demand. Snow shovels cost more in December than May, opposite with bikinis.

To answer your question, the best time to trade is July, followed by the offseason. The worst time is right now.
PMike
Posts: 843
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 9:29 pm

What would another GM do?

Post by PMike »

535A52434D370 wrote: There is absolutely no reason to sell at this point in the season.  It's April.  The return on McCutchen, Cole, or others isn't going to be more now than at the trade deadline.  Wait another month or two and see what you've got.  Both at the MLB level and at AAA.


How does that math work?   if a trade COULD be made now with 5 months of ball left in 2017, the return wouldn't be stronger than 2 months of 2017?   I don't understand



What is the arbitrary calendar line you guys make with respect to when returns are best? 



Do you get good returns on trades in January, but then April 14th, value all turns to dust, only to re-ignite in July?   



There's just so many rules!   Don't trade "prospects"! Don't trade between Opening day and July!  Don't trade when on a Tuesday  following a full moon, etc..   


I have no idea what your last paragraph means in terms of what I wrote.



The reason I think it is dumb to fold now and trade away players is because we have played all of 22 games so far. Slightly more than 1/8th of the season. It seems really reactionary to trade now.



Secondly, I don't think that you would get substantially more out of any trades now than you would in two months. Given those two realities, it seems silly and reactionary to pack the season in on April 28th.
rucker59@gmail.com

What would another GM do?

Post by rucker59@gmail.com »

13323A133830570 wrote: Somewhere here we talked about trading major pieces that might bring us some unique up and coming as well as established talent.



That though brings me back almost 58years when my Bucs led by GM Joe L. Brown totally disappointed me as a 10 yr old.  They traded away my favorite Pirate and the team's best player one Frank Thomas.  Thomas was a power hitting 3B/LF who had led the Bucs in HR and RBIs in 1958.  Along with Thomas the Bucs parted with minor RHP Whammy Douglas, Johnny Powers a LH hitting OF/PH who hit below the Mendoza Line before it was the Mendoza Line and right handed OF/3B/PH Jim Pendelton to the Cincinnati Redlegs for uh 3 guys who would help the Bucs make history.  Don "The Tiger" Hoak a righty swinging 3B who earned his nickname because of his toughness, lefty swinging catcher/PH named Forrest Harrill Burgess aka "Smoky".  A great pinch hitter who could get out of bed, come to bat and get a hit Bob Prince used to say.  Finally there was a little "Kitten" obtained in LHP Harvey Haddix.  Called the "Kitten" because of his resemblance to and his great fielding ability to a similar guy Harry "The Cat" Breechen. 



Haddix is most known for his  12 perfect inning game against the Braves on 5/26/59.  The game was decided in the 13th inning on a Joe Adcock double.  Braves win 1-0.  The Bucs were shutout despite racking up 12 hits.   The Box Score



All three guys were instrumental in the Bucs winning the WS in 1960.  In fact Haddix was the winner of game 7 after Maz's HR.



I look back to those simpler days when being a baseball fan was fun.  You rooted for your team and cheered when they won and cried and moaned when they lost but you never ever quit rooting for them and going to games.



Now adays with all the tech involved in not just baseball but all sports it has become more of a pain to watch a game on tv and even at the park.  I could go on about those two things but I wont because I love the game and the Pirates.  I hope that some of you younger guys can take a break from all the stats and just sit back and relax and watch a great game and a bunch of guys who get paid lots of money to "play" and most of who are giving it all they got to win.



For me the dream that I have would to be able to go back to my child hood and sit in the stands at Forbes Field with my dad keeping score in the official scorebook, eating popcorn and having fun with dad and the Bucs.




Darn Possum, you go off and write the post of the year.  It makes me want to go off and have a beer or a diet Coke with Mr Nutting (I'll be buying of course) and forget about finances, PNC's too-small video board and the cost of a decent bench player; just enjoy the game.  The game became so big and the world changed so much, that those simple times are gone for ever. Nothing is the same as those 1960 Pirates, except the game itself; but the game hasn't changed at all.  First order of business - enjoy the game no matter who's making a fortune off the team.  And enjoy a good, if not a great, team.



Second, I wonder if the Pirates win the 60 WS if Thomas isn't traded?  I don't know what was behind the Thomas trade, but it was obviously a huge deal to Pirate fans when it happened- how can you trade away a bat like that?  And for what?



Thank you for pointing out that sometimes you have to make big moves if you want to win big.  Time for the Pirates to make some big moves if they want to win big.  Sitting on this team is a sure sign of trying to stay competitive and hoping rather than trying to build a WS winner.


VA, here's some background on the Frank Thomas trade. Thomas was the Pirates' true star player. In 1958, he was 2nd in the NL in HRs and RBIs, finished 4th in the MVP voting and led the Bucs to their first winning season in 10 years. After being the laughingstock of MLB for the past decade, the Pirates finished 2nd in 1958 thanks largely to Thomas. And GM Joe Brown wanted to address the team's needs and take the Pirates to another level. The 1958 team did not have a LH starter. Hank Foiles was a good defensive catcher who, aside from 1957, was a very weak hitter. He batted .205 in 1958. And despite his great hitting, Thomas was weak defensively at 3B. He was 29. He also had a hand injury which he disclosed to the Reds upon being traded. But it's unclear if this had anything to do with the trade.



The Reds were the ideal trade partner for Brown. They were looking for another slugger to pair with young Frank Robinson. They also had the great hitting catcher Smoky Burgess (age 31) who was expendable because Ed Bailey was younger, better defensively and, like Burgess, a LH batter. With the Pirates in need of a LH starting pitcher, the Reds were willing to deal 32 year old veteran Haddix. And to replace Thomas at 3B, the Bucs could have journeyman Don Hoak (age 31). Hoak would greatly improve the Pirates' infiield defense at 3B but was an inconsistent hitter who had enjoyed only 1 standout season with the bat (1957).



So the Bucs obtained 3 veterans, all 30+, to fill the team's needs and to try to build on their successful 1958 season. The rest of the trade involved throw-ins. Powers was a minor league slugger who didn't seem able to hit MLB pitching. Pendleton was a 35 year old utility guy. Douglas was a young pitching prospect who appeared in a handful of games for the Bucs in 1957 but spent the '58 season back in AAA. He was blind in one eye.



The impact of the trade was not immediately apparent. The Reds didn't seem concerned about Thomas' hand injury but it led to a bad 1959 season for him with the Reds. And the Pirates regressed in 1959, going from 84 wins (2nd place) to 78 wins (4th place). But Haddix (3.13 ERA), Burgess (.297) and Hoak (.294) all performed well. A year later, those 3 continued to be productive, Clemente had his breakout year, Friend and Maz had bounce back seasons, and the additions of Hal Smith, Gino Cimoli and Vinegar Bend Mizell all combined to put them over the top.



The surprise of the trade for the Bucs was Hoak. While Burgess and Haddix lived up to their high expectations, Hoak exceeded his. They knew they were getting a big defensive upgrade over Thomas at 3B but Hoak's hitting was somewhat suspect. He was a career .254 hitter when obtained and most of his good hitting had been confined to 1957 when he batted an uncharacteristic .294. To give a better idea of his career stats, he was a .240 hitter absent 1957. But Hoak thrived in Pittsburgh, giving them a solid hitter as well as outstanding defense. He was the runner up to Groat in the NL MVP voting in 1960 (although arguably, Clemente probably should have been 1 or 2).


Thanks so much Bobster for going into detail about the Frank Thomas trade.  Means a lot more to me now with the details than it did when I was 10 yrs old. 



And thanks to VaPirate for suggesting I post the original post after sharing the story with him by PM. 


I also greatly appreciate Bobster's post - what a great story! Looks like Joe Brown personally engineered one of the great championships in all of the history of any sport.



I certainly "get" that trades don't happen like this in today's game. The Frank Thomas story represents pure baseball and illustrates just how out of wack today's game is.
rucker59@gmail.com

What would another GM do?

Post by rucker59@gmail.com »

4F626F7E79687F3F3C0D0 wrote: There is absolutely no reason to sell at this point in the season.  It's April.  The return on McCutchen, Cole, or others isn't going to be more now than at the trade deadline.  Wait another month or two and see what you've got.  Both at the MLB level and at AAA.


How does that math work?   if a trade COULD be made now with 5 months of ball left in 2017, the return wouldn't be stronger than 2 months of 2017?   I don't understand



What is the arbitrary calendar line you guys make with respect to when returns are best? 



Do you get good returns on trades in January, but then April 14th, value all turns to dust, only to re-ignite in July?   



There's just so many rules!   Don't trade "prospects"! Don't trade between Opening day and July!  Don't trade when on a Tuesday  following a full moon, etc..   


I can try to answer this:



Come July, teams know if you are in it or not and if they should buy or sell for the stretch run.  In April, all teams probably think they are in it as the team was just put together.



Teams seem to overpay to make that run and offer more at the deadline in July.  Teams also know who is on the market and battle each other for players making their market go up.



Salary comes into play too.  Why pay McCutchen $13 million when you can get him in July for $7 million and be in the same situation?



You rarely see teams make big trades in April.  There has to be a reason why, right?  This isn't a new sport or business.   


I agree with Dog on this. By April, teams have had all off season to build the roster they're satisfied with. And that's a combination of player talent and payroll limits. There's probably more optimism than common sense in April as many more teams think they're going to contend than actually do. Many players get off to slow starts and their teams still hope those players will rebound before feeling like they have to make a trade to fill that hole. So the July non-waiver trade deadline is sort of the rallying point for teams to make deals that they hoped in April would not be necessary. At that point, a GM trying to improve his team for the stretch run is more willing to deal even if he has to give up more than he would like. It also depends on the contract. If you can get a free-agent-to-be at the August 31 waiver-deal deadline, you are only renting him for a month. Those players don't bring as much in return.


Yeah, I get that April or May is not the time to move significant parts. This is a hypothetical discussion. I imagine that everyone who favors building this team through trades, like myself, the FO would be forced to wait until the market is strongest.



So while I personally think it's crazy to be determined to hold a ~.500 team together, I don't expect or advocate April or May

Trades.
rucker59@gmail.com

What would another GM do?

Post by rucker59@gmail.com »

7E4C40405466454C41444B4C2D0 wrote: That makes sense.  I don't think we should sell off anyway.  I think Cutch should be traded.   Otherwise I would not be selling. 






What should we do now though?  We're kinda falling between two stools.  Marte could as least have done us the courtesy of getting busted for cheating during the offseason.




This is a great point. When the Pirates do nothing in the offseason, I get really frustrated to hear that the FO can fill any exposed needs at the deadline.  The reality is a season can be down the drain by then. 



Even more, the Pirates seem to be pushing the envelope further - now the Pirates are trying to deal by the Sept 1 roster date, and it very definitely leaves the impression that saving payroll is the motivation to push back to a sept 1 date.



Just build the team in the offseason, please!
Docjon49
Posts: 103
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:07 am

What would another GM do?

Post by Docjon49 »

111600080611565A23040E020A0F4D000C0E630 wrote:



Yeah, I get that April or May is not the time to move significant parts.  This is a hypothetical discussion.  I imagine that everyone who favors building this team through trades, like myself, the FO would be forced to wait until the market is strongest. 



So while I personally think it's crazy to be determined to hold a ~.500 team together, I don't expect or advocate April or May

Trades.




Meh.  Suppose a team that fully expects to contend loses a starter tomorrow.  Maybe they lose a star outfielder for the season, or someone from high in the rotation.  In that case, there COULD be a demand now.  IF that becomes the case, we entertain offers.  IF we like the offer, we accept, if not, we wait.  Standard operating procedure, with a larger window than usual in which we're willing to entertain offers.



The season is done for the Pirates now.  You won't see me saying anything like this prior to this thread, but I'll stand by it for the rest of the season. It's not really much of a risk to do so, as I strongly believe it's an obvious and blatant situation.  From hereon out, you act with that knowledge WRT everything you do for this team. 



Also, I heard a podcast around the middle of the month where John Perotto comes right out and said that MLB was upset with the Nuttings because of the profit they're turning without putting enough back into the team, and that the MLPA feels the same way.  With that in mind, I'm more inclined than ever to turn it over and trade for new talent.  They won't be spending to improve the team, they won't even bring in mid-tier talent - just marginal guys they thing have been under performing and hoping for a bounce.



The podcast I mentioned above. The part I'm talking about starts around the 16 minute mark.



I don't have much hope for the near future, given our apparently lackluster Latin American system right now, and the lack of high draft picks the past several years.  Heck, most of our highly-touted prospects that WERE drafted high did not turn out to be as good as we'd hoped in recent years, so I don't hold out much hope for late-round picks.




rucker59@gmail.com

What would another GM do?

Post by rucker59@gmail.com »

6D464A4346471D10290 wrote:



Yeah, I get that April or May is not the time to move significant parts.  This is a hypothetical discussion.  I imagine that everyone who favors building this team through trades, like myself, the FO would be forced to wait until the market is strongest. 



So while I personally think it's crazy to be determined to hold a ~.500 team together, I don't expect or advocate April or May

Trades.




Meh.  Suppose a team that fully expects to contend loses a starter tomorrow.  Maybe they lose a star outfielder for the season, or someone from high in the rotation.  In that case, there COULD be a demand now.  IF that becomes the case, we entertain offers.  IF we like the offer, we accept, if not, we wait.  Standard operating procedure, with a larger window than usual in which we're willing to entertain offers.



The season is done for the Pirates now.  You won't see me saying anything like this prior to this thread, but I'll stand by it for the rest of the season. It's not really much of a risk to do so, as I strongly believe it's an obvious and blatant situation.  From hereon out, you act with that knowledge WRT everything you do for this team. 



Also, I heard a podcast around the middle of the month where John Perotto comes right out and said that MLB was upset with the Nuttings because of the profit they're turning without putting enough back into the team, and that the MLPA feels the same way.  With that in mind, I'm more inclined than ever to turn it over and trade for new talent.  They won't be spending to improve the team, they won't even bring in mid-tier talent - just marginal guys they thing have been under performing and hoping for a bounce.



The podcast I mentioned above.  The part I'm talking about starts around the 16 minute mark.



I don't have much hope for the near future, given our apparently lackluster Latin American system right now, and the lack of high draft picks the past several years.  Heck, most of our highly-touted prospects that WERE drafted high did not turn out to be as good as we'd hoped in recent years, so I don't hold out much hope for late-round picks.








I agree with you, although not quite as pessimistic. My comment you were responding to was meant to simply say that I wouldn't demand an immediate trade, allowing the trade to take place at the most advantageous time. April, July or whatever.



I tend to agree with you about the future. I don't see the system feeding as much talent as in the past, so for an organization dependent upon its system, the future will likely be less then what we've recently experienced.





I fully expect this organization to sit on its hands, play approximately .500 ball for the next couple years and then slide back into irrelevance.



We've shown no "plan" to use either our prospects nor our vets. Just a lot of haphazard moving parts usually with little or no real value. Sitting on the current team will be proof for me: neither building this team for the best possible current run nor replenishing our farm system - just middling along.



Your comments about MLB and Nutting - I can believe the "report". Watching the team refuse to follow its pears into salary levels despite promises and genuine potential is a scandal in the world of sports. The intergraty of the game, a near fiduciary duty to the fans of the game, is by all appearances being sacrificed by this ownership. I'd love to see MLB come in and review matters and administer discipline as appropriate.
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