What about the lineup?

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Ecbucs
Posts: 4220
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:53 pm

What about the lineup?

Post by Ecbucs »

I think is time to rethink that philosophy too as it is bad to have one mediocre player playing and one mediocre player on the dl.



Plus the players getting 10 million a year now are not nearly high ceiling players.



If the Bucs can't get the payroll higher, they may need to go the way of some teams in leagues that play with a salary cap and pay for the very talented players and fill in with cheap players.


Aaron
Posts: 329
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:15 pm

What about the lineup?

Post by Aaron »

2621373F3126616D143339353D387A373B39540 wrote: I wonder which has the greater opportunity for significant success with $15M:

2 pitchers at $7.5M each

1 pitcher at $15M?



One of the issues I wonder about is how $$ is allocated by the Pirates.  Trying to catch lightning in the bottle, the Pirates will spread Thin financial resources over several players.  Part of the problem is their internal determination of individual contracts in relation to total payroll.



Maybe it's time to simply look for the best pitcher or player they can afford within the payroll.  Forget 2 for 1 "opportunities".  How about 1 Nova rather then a Niese/Vogie?



Catching lightening in a bottle is really hard even if Ray does magic.




Reading the tea leaves it appears to me the Bucs have a self imposed salary cap of 90-95 million. If accurate....the margin of error and opportunity to succeed are razor thin. They are cornered inti having players with team friendly contracts, players with 0-5 years of service time and reclamations projects. Or put another way....lightning in a bottle. Obviously it's possible as it worked from 13-15. But difficult to repeat and impossible to sustain. I've always said...the number one reason for their success those three years was getting MVP (arguably HOF level) level play from a player with an extremely team friendly contract.



Which leads to my next issue which was not realizing during that three year run what a special and unique opportunity it was and not maximizing or leveraging the situation more. People want to argue the playoffs are all about luck and it's better to remain competitive than go for it. My opinion is where there's certainly a level of luck...talent also plays a part. More importantly...if the Pirates fail to reach the playoffs or be competitive in 17...which appears likely...it makes the "remain competitive" an even larger fallacy as we're looking at a 2nd consecutive losing year.
PMike
Posts: 843
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 9:29 pm

What about the lineup?

Post by PMike »

5070637E7F110 wrote: I wonder which has the greater opportunity for significant success with $15M:

2 pitchers at $7.5M each

1 pitcher at $15M?



One of the issues I wonder about is how $$ is allocated by the Pirates.  Trying to catch lightning in the bottle, the Pirates will spread Thin financial resources over several players.  Part of the problem is their internal determination of individual contracts in relation to total payroll.



Maybe it's time to simply look for the best pitcher or player they can afford within the payroll.  Forget 2 for 1 "opportunities".  How about 1 Nova rather then a Niese/Vogie?



Catching lightening in a bottle is really hard even if Ray does magic.




Reading the tea leaves it appears to me the Bucs have a self imposed salary cap of 90-95 million. If accurate....the margin of error and opportunity to succeed are razor thin. They are cornered inti having players with team friendly contracts, players with 0-5 years of service time and reclamations projects. Or put another way....lightning in a bottle.  Obviously it's possible as it worked from 13-15. But difficult to repeat and impossible to sustain. I've always said...the number one reason for their success those three years was getting MVP (arguably HOF level) level play from a player with an extremely team friendly contract. 



Which leads to my next issue which was not realizing during that three year run what a special and unique opportunity it was and not maximizing or leveraging the situation more.  People want to argue the playoffs are all about luck and it's better to remain competitive than go for it. My opinion is where there's certainly a level of luck...talent also plays a part. More importantly...if the Pirates fail to reach the playoffs or be competitive in 17...which appears likely...it makes the "remain competitive" an even larger fallacy as we're looking at a 2nd consecutive losing year.




I think the (self imposed) cap is about 10-15 million more than that. I think they shoot to go into the season at around $95 million so that they have room to make a trade for a big salary guy and take on substantial money for half a year. Last year, they didn't feel it was worth it to add like that, so they payroll stayed low.



They certainly do rely on getting big production without paying market value for it. That's why all of the young players and putting "risky" contracts on those players. Most of those have worked out (McCutchen, Marte, Polanco so far). Some haven't worked out (Tabata, Harrison maybe?). Those aren't huge risks, but that's where they are. With that said, a person can see how imperative it is that they continue a pipeline of young talent that can give high level production at cheap prices. They have to be careful in trading away prospects because they will need to players to produce something for a low amount of money.



At this point, people are getting mad because they aren't signing any new players and the argument is that they aren' raising payroll. They are raising payroll because they are paying all of those young player contracts more money. They were getting the pre-arb money. Now they are into their contracts. In the world of MLB, Marte and Cutch aren't paid much. But they are paid many times more than they were a few years ago.
Aaron
Posts: 329
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:15 pm

What about the lineup?

Post by Aaron »

1D002426284D0 wrote: I wonder which has the greater opportunity for significant success with $15M:

2 pitchers at $7.5M each

1 pitcher at $15M?



One of the issues I wonder about is how $$ is allocated by the Pirates.  Trying to catch lightning in the bottle, the Pirates will spread Thin financial resources over several players.  Part of the problem is their internal determination of individual contracts in relation to total payroll.



Maybe it's time to simply look for the best pitcher or player they can afford within the payroll.  Forget 2 for 1 "opportunities".  How about 1 Nova rather then a Niese/Vogie?



Catching lightening in a bottle is really hard even if Ray does magic.




Reading the tea leaves it appears to me the Bucs have a self imposed salary cap of 90-95 million. If accurate....the margin of error and opportunity to succeed are razor thin. They are cornered inti having players with team friendly contracts, players with 0-5 years of service time and reclamations projects. Or put another way....lightning in a bottle.  Obviously it's possible as it worked from 13-15. But difficult to repeat and impossible to sustain. I've always said...the number one reason for their success those three years was getting MVP (arguably HOF level) level play from a player with an extremely team friendly contract. 



Which leads to my next issue which was not realizing during that three year run what a special and unique opportunity it was and not maximizing or leveraging the situation more.  People want to argue the playoffs are all about luck and it's better to remain competitive than go for it. My opinion is where there's certainly a level of luck...talent also plays a part. More importantly...if the Pirates fail to reach the playoffs or be competitive in 17...which appears likely...it makes the "remain competitive" an even larger fallacy as we're looking at a 2nd consecutive losing year.




I think the (self imposed) cap is about 10-15 million more than that.  I think they shoot to go into the season at around $95 million so that they have room to make a trade for a big salary guy and take on substantial money for half a year.  Last year, they didn't feel it was worth it to add like that, so they payroll stayed low.



They certainly do rely on getting big production without paying market value for it.  That's why all of the young players and putting "risky" contracts on those players.  Most of those have worked out (McCutchen, Marte, Polanco so far).  Some haven't worked out (Tabata, Harrison maybe?).  Those aren't huge risks, but that's where they are.  With that said, a person can see how imperative  it is that they continue a pipeline of young talent that can give high level production at cheap prices.  They have to be careful in trading away prospects because they will need to players to produce something for a low amount of money.



At this point, people are getting mad because they aren't signing any new players and the argument is that they aren' raising payroll.  They are raising payroll because they are paying all of those young player contracts more money.  They were getting the pre-arb money.  Now they are into their contracts.  In the world of MLB, Marte and Cutch aren't paid much.  But they are paid many times more than they were a few years ago.
We'll see where the 17 payroll winds up. But between Melancon, Liriano, Feliz, Locke, Rodriguez, Vogelsong and Joyce they shed about 35 million. Yet needed to dump Liriano for financial flexibility and immediately claimed the 17 budget was going to be tight.



If the Pirates can't or are not willing to increase payroll to a reasonable 110-120....things are bleak. As we are currently seeing....all the predictions of the process exclusively building repeat playoffs contenders through the minors isn't realistic.
Ecbucs
Posts: 4220
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:53 pm

What about the lineup?

Post by Ecbucs »

sure they are raising payroll but relative to the league they aren't.



Relative to the league they are paying less than they did when they moved into PNC (which was a disaster, have to wonder what NH could have done if he had an opportunity like that).
PMike
Posts: 843
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 9:29 pm

What about the lineup?

Post by PMike »

58786B7677190 wrote: I wonder which has the greater opportunity for significant success with $15M:

2 pitchers at $7.5M each

1 pitcher at $15M?



One of the issues I wonder about is how $$ is allocated by the Pirates.  Trying to catch lightning in the bottle, the Pirates will spread Thin financial resources over several players.  Part of the problem is their internal determination of individual contracts in relation to total payroll.



Maybe it's time to simply look for the best pitcher or player they can afford within the payroll.  Forget 2 for 1 "opportunities".  How about 1 Nova rather then a Niese/Vogie?



Catching lightening in a bottle is really hard even if Ray does magic.




Reading the tea leaves it appears to me the Bucs have a self imposed salary cap of 90-95 million. If accurate....the margin of error and opportunity to succeed are razor thin. They are cornered inti having players with team friendly contracts, players with 0-5 years of service time and reclamations projects. Or put another way....lightning in a bottle.  Obviously it's possible as it worked from 13-15. But difficult to repeat and impossible to sustain. I've always said...the number one reason for their success those three years was getting MVP (arguably HOF level) level play from a player with an extremely team friendly contract. 



Which leads to my next issue which was not realizing during that three year run what a special and unique opportunity it was and not maximizing or leveraging the situation more.  People want to argue the playoffs are all about luck and it's better to remain competitive than go for it. My opinion is where there's certainly a level of luck...talent also plays a part. More importantly...if the Pirates fail to reach the playoffs or be competitive in 17...which appears likely...it makes the "remain competitive" an even larger fallacy as we're looking at a 2nd consecutive losing year.




I think the (self imposed) cap is about 10-15 million more than that.  I think they shoot to go into the season at around $95 million so that they have room to make a trade for a big salary guy and take on substantial money for half a year.  Last year, they didn't feel it was worth it to add like that, so they payroll stayed low.



They certainly do rely on getting big production without paying market value for it.  That's why all of the young players and putting "risky" contracts on those players.  Most of those have worked out (McCutchen, Marte, Polanco so far).  Some haven't worked out (Tabata, Harrison maybe?).  Those aren't huge risks, but that's where they are.  With that said, a person can see how imperative  it is that they continue a pipeline of young talent that can give high level production at cheap prices.  They have to be careful in trading away prospects because they will need to players to produce something for a low amount of money.



At this point, people are getting mad because they aren't signing any new players and the argument is that they aren' raising payroll.  They are raising payroll because they are paying all of those young player contracts more money.  They were getting the pre-arb money.  Now they are into their contracts.  In the world of MLB, Marte and Cutch aren't paid much.  But they are paid many times more than they were a few years ago.
We'll see where the 17 payroll winds up. But between Melancon, Liriano, Feliz, Locke, Rodriguez, Vogelsong and Joyce they shed about 35 million.  Yet needed to dump Liriano for financial flexibility and immediately claimed the 17 budget was going to be tight.



If the Pirates can't or are not willing to increase payroll to a reasonable 110-120....things are bleak. As we are currently seeing....all the predictions of the process exclusively building repeat playoffs contenders through the minors isn't realistic. 




I don't know about bleak, but it is a bigger obstacle.



Comparing 2016-2017 the following:

Freese +3.25 million than last year's salary

McCutchen +1 million

Cervelli + 5.5 million

Harrison + 2.5 million

Marte +2.5 million

Bastardo is on the line for about +6.6 million

Cole should get a hefty raise from his base salary...maybe +3 million



That is about $24 million in raises for guys that were already on the team.
Ecbucs
Posts: 4220
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:53 pm

What about the lineup?

Post by Ecbucs »

don't forget Mercer, he'll get a raise too.



But they aren't really raises overall. Individual players get raises but the pie stays about the same. The team operates just like the Pens and Steelers do with their salary caps.



To make room for those getting raises it sheds other players:



Melancon, Liriano, Joyce, S-Rod, Locke, Feliz, Vogelsong, Nova (at least for moment)
Aaron
Posts: 329
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:15 pm

What about the lineup?

Post by Aaron »

706D494B45200 wrote: I wonder which has the greater opportunity for significant success with $15M:

2 pitchers at $7.5M each

1 pitcher at $15M?



One of the issues I wonder about is how $$ is allocated by the Pirates.  Trying to catch lightning in the bottle, the Pirates will spread Thin financial resources over several players.  Part of the problem is their internal determination of individual contracts in relation to total payroll.



Maybe it's time to simply look for the best pitcher or player they can afford within the payroll.  Forget 2 for 1 "opportunities".  How about 1 Nova rather then a Niese/Vogie?



Catching lightening in a bottle is really hard even if Ray does magic.




Reading the tea leaves it appears to me the Bucs have a self imposed salary cap of 90-95 million. If accurate....the margin of error and opportunity to succeed are razor thin. They are cornered inti having players with team friendly contracts, players with 0-5 years of service time and reclamations projects. Or put another way....lightning in a bottle.  Obviously it's possible as it worked from 13-15. But difficult to repeat and impossible to sustain. I've always said...the number one reason for their success those three years was getting MVP (arguably HOF level) level play from a player with an extremely team friendly contract. 



Which leads to my next issue which was not realizing during that three year run what a special and unique opportunity it was and not maximizing or leveraging the situation more.  People want to argue the playoffs are all about luck and it's better to remain competitive than go for it. My opinion is where there's certainly a level of luck...talent also plays a part. More importantly...if the Pirates fail to reach the playoffs or be competitive in 17...which appears likely...it makes the "remain competitive" an even larger fallacy as we're looking at a 2nd consecutive losing year.




I think the (self imposed) cap is about 10-15 million more than that.  I think they shoot to go into the season at around $95 million so that they have room to make a trade for a big salary guy and take on substantial money for half a year.  Last year, they didn't feel it was worth it to add like that, so they payroll stayed low.



They certainly do rely on getting big production without paying market value for it.  That's why all of the young players and putting "risky" contracts on those players.  Most of those have worked out (McCutchen, Marte, Polanco so far).  Some haven't worked out (Tabata, Harrison maybe?).  Those aren't huge risks, but that's where they are.  With that said, a person can see how imperative  it is that they continue a pipeline of young talent that can give high level production at cheap prices.  They have to be careful in trading away prospects because they will need to players to produce something for a low amount of money.



At this point, people are getting mad because they aren't signing any new players and the argument is that they aren' raising payroll.  They are raising payroll because they are paying all of those young player contracts more money.  They were getting the pre-arb money.  Now they are into their contracts.  In the world of MLB, Marte and Cutch aren't paid much.  But they are paid many times more than they were a few years ago.
We'll see where the 17 payroll winds up. But between Melancon, Liriano, Feliz, Locke, Rodriguez, Vogelsong and Joyce they shed about 35 million.  Yet needed to dump Liriano for financial flexibility and immediately claimed the 17 budget was going to be tight.



If the Pirates can't or are not willing to increase payroll to a reasonable 110-120....things are bleak. As we are currently seeing....all the predictions of the process exclusively building repeat playoffs contenders through the minors isn't realistic. 




I don't know about bleak, but it is a bigger obstacle.



Comparing 2016-2017 the following:

Freese +3.25 million than last year's salary

McCutchen +1 million

Cervelli + 5.5 million

Harrison + 2.5 million

Marte +2.5 million

Bastardo is on the line for about +6.6 million

Cole should get a hefty raise from his base salary...maybe +3 million



That is about $24 million in raises for guys that were already on the team.
And shed an additional 35 million. Meaning they should have at worst 11 million to spend. Or even more if they fulfill the promise of raising payroll. But I suspect we'll see a marginal signing of someone like Daniel Hudson and an opening day payroll around 93 million.



If accurate...we're looking at another losing season. Which only fuels my frustration over not trying to do more to win in 13-15. I was told they couldn't afford to remotely compromise the future because they would still be contending due to the sound process. Yet they didn't do more to win in 13-15 and are no longer winning.

Meaning, the process was flawed and an excuse not to spend.
PMike
Posts: 843
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 9:29 pm

What about the lineup?

Post by PMike »

7353405D5C320 wrote: I wonder which has the greater opportunity for significant success with $15M:

2 pitchers at $7.5M each

1 pitcher at $15M?



One of the issues I wonder about is how $$ is allocated by the Pirates.  Trying to catch lightning in the bottle, the Pirates will spread Thin financial resources over several players.  Part of the problem is their internal determination of individual contracts in relation to total payroll.



Maybe it's time to simply look for the best pitcher or player they can afford within the payroll.  Forget 2 for 1 "opportunities".  How about 1 Nova rather then a Niese/Vogie?



Catching lightening in a bottle is really hard even if Ray does magic.




Reading the tea leaves it appears to me the Bucs have a self imposed salary cap of 90-95 million. If accurate....the margin of error and opportunity to succeed are razor thin. They are cornered inti having players with team friendly contracts, players with 0-5 years of service time and reclamations projects. Or put another way....lightning in a bottle.  Obviously it's possible as it worked from 13-15. But difficult to repeat and impossible to sustain. I've always said...the number one reason for their success those three years was getting MVP (arguably HOF level) level play from a player with an extremely team friendly contract. 



Which leads to my next issue which was not realizing during that three year run what a special and unique opportunity it was and not maximizing or leveraging the situation more.  People want to argue the playoffs are all about luck and it's better to remain competitive than go for it. My opinion is where there's certainly a level of luck...talent also plays a part. More importantly...if the Pirates fail to reach the playoffs or be competitive in 17...which appears likely...it makes the "remain competitive" an even larger fallacy as we're looking at a 2nd consecutive losing year.




I think the (self imposed) cap is about 10-15 million more than that.  I think they shoot to go into the season at around $95 million so that they have room to make a trade for a big salary guy and take on substantial money for half a year.  Last year, they didn't feel it was worth it to add like that, so they payroll stayed low.



They certainly do rely on getting big production without paying market value for it.  That's why all of the young players and putting "risky" contracts on those players.  Most of those have worked out (McCutchen, Marte, Polanco so far).  Some haven't worked out (Tabata, Harrison maybe?).  Those aren't huge risks, but that's where they are.  With that said, a person can see how imperative  it is that they continue a pipeline of young talent that can give high level production at cheap prices.  They have to be careful in trading away prospects because they will need to players to produce something for a low amount of money.



At this point, people are getting mad because they aren't signing any new players and the argument is that they aren' raising payroll.  They are raising payroll because they are paying all of those young player contracts more money.  They were getting the pre-arb money.  Now they are into their contracts.  In the world of MLB, Marte and Cutch aren't paid much.  But they are paid many times more than they were a few years ago.
We'll see where the 17 payroll winds up. But between Melancon, Liriano, Feliz, Locke, Rodriguez, Vogelsong and Joyce they shed about 35 million.  Yet needed to dump Liriano for financial flexibility and immediately claimed the 17 budget was going to be tight.



If the Pirates can't or are not willing to increase payroll to a reasonable 110-120....things are bleak. As we are currently seeing....all the predictions of the process exclusively building repeat playoffs contenders through the minors isn't realistic. 




I don't know about bleak, but it is a bigger obstacle.



Comparing 2016-2017 the following:

Freese +3.25 million than last year's salary

McCutchen +1 million

Cervelli + 5.5 million

Harrison + 2.5 million

Marte +2.5 million

Bastardo is on the line for about +6.6 million

Cole should get a hefty raise from his base salary...maybe +3 million



That is about $24 million in raises for guys that were already on the team.
And shed an additional 35 million. Meaning they should have at worst 11 million to spend. Or even more if they fulfill the promise of raising payroll.  But I suspect we'll see a marginal signing of someone like Daniel Hudson and an opening day payroll around 93 million.



If accurate...we're looking at another losing season. Which only fuels my frustration over not trying to do more to win in 13-15. I was told they couldn't afford to remotely compromise the future because they would still be contending due to the sound process. Yet they didn't do more to win in 13-15 and are no longer winning.

Meaning, the process was flawed and an excuse not to spend.


I'm an unabashed optimist...or at least I try to be. Life is better for me that way.



That said, I can certainly see your perspective. But let me take another perspective. On the other hand, they have a group of hitters that are all in the prime. Seriously, every position is in their prime and aside from Mercer and Bell (who is too young), they have all shown flashes of being an All Star. It is not inconceivable to think that the offense is seriously playoff worthy or even division winning quality.



The pitching looks suspect. Cole was a finalist for the CY two years ago. He has the potential. Taillon looked like a guy who has similar potential. I actually thought Kuhl looked good and slots in well to a rotation. He keeps you in every game and can win some games for you. If Glasnow can learn a slide step and calm his nerves (as he has done after an adjustment period at every level), he could also be a CY candidate. He was more dominant in the minors and has better stuff than both Taillon and Cole. For the fifth spot, they have a handful of guys who have all been very successful in the minors and look to have stuff that will translate into major league success. Hutchison (I know) has more than enough minor league experience. If they pull a Burnett/Happ/Nova with him, he would be a very productive piece in the rotation (gotta hope on that one, right?). Brault/Williams/Duncan/Boscan all look like they could pitch in the majors now and have some success. Kingham is also just at the threshold. He is a former top prospect who allegedly has regained his pre-TJ form. He does have almost 120 AAA innings so it's not as if he needs much, if any, seasoning there.



I know, there are tons of counter arguments about all of that. The point is, it is very realistic that they are successful this year. Pretty much every guy alluded to above is also around for the next number of years. There minor league system isn't as deep as it has been at times, but there are a few guys who look like they may be big impact additions down the road. It isn't that hard to look at this organization and see success now and into the future.
Aaron
Posts: 329
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:15 pm

What about the lineup?

Post by Aaron »

It amazes me that we are only a few months removed from a losing season....a failed season due to a failed offseason grounded in hope....and people are okay repeating it. I mean 2016 happened....right? Did I dream it or were people talking about how everything could work out fine with Nicasio, Vogelsong and Locke and even if they failed the minors were littered with qualified SP's? Was that real life?
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