What about the lineup?

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Ecbucs
Posts: 4223
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:53 pm

What about the lineup?

Post by Ecbucs »

In August of 2015 Neise went 3-0 but his ERA went from 3.63 on July 30 to 3.95 on August 27. He started 4 more times (last on 9/21 were he pitched 6 shut out innings for his last win of season) before finishing with 4 relief appearances.



He pitched in relief 6 times in post season
Aaron
Posts: 329
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:15 pm

What about the lineup?

Post by Aaron »

515640484651161A63444E424A4F0D404C4E230 wrote: So clearly last year they failed to assemble an adequate pitching staff.  Going into the season, they had Liriano and Cole as their 1-2, then a collection of Niese, Locke, Nicasio and Vogelsong with a AAA rotation of Glasnow, Taillon, Kuhl, Williams and Brault.



Nicasio was miscast as a starter, Niese was a scouting error, Locke was the usual Locke, but I think Vogelsong was a good signing.  He predictably fell off a cliff, but had the other players done anything, he could have been removed when he reached that cliff instead of being sent out there and watch his ERA move from 3 to 5 in a handful of appearances.



So for 2017, they have Taillon, Cole and Kuhl, and presumably a couple of warm bodies that they'll bring in.  Then the AAA rotation of Glasnow, Kingham, Brault, Williams (and that one guy who had a good year last year).  I only see the need for one sure thing starter, there is a good chance that one of those AAA guys is able to break through and pencil himself into the ML rotation.


So, I think what you're saying is, "let's do 2016 over in 2017"?



Instead of Cole and Liariano we have Cole and Tallion.

Tallion: could be a stud soon, less than a season but I take him any day.

Cole: potential either way. Just a fact. Last we saw of him there were a 100 questions raised. Often injuried.  Blow out potential. But what the heck, we'll assume he's going to pitch 200 critical innings. 

Kuhl - I like as a steady backend guy.  Less than a season and no expectations, until now. 

"Two warm bodies" till mid season. If (IF) this is Neal's approach after acknowledging that last year was a failed plan, then shame on him and he's not the GM i think he is. If the Pirates are thinking this way then I prefer them to acknowledge that their "original plan worked well but in the end injuries messed up expected arrivals, the best plan going forward is to step back a couple years AND trade current contract that will not realistically help them in 2-3 years."   

AAA guys: let's face it, this group did little to impress last year.  Kingham could be a good addition and I'm certainly not giving up on Glasnow nor any of the others.  But last year did not paint an obvious picture for 2017 and beyond.



In other words, let's try 2016 again.....




Yeah......not sure how anyone can think this is a sound strategy. It's exactly what they did last off season. Sure....EVERYTHING could break right in 2017 and the could win 90 games. But more than likely....they win 78-83 games.



What happened to 2016 being a bridge to 2017? What happened to the process leading to an infinite window of contention with teams exclusively built through the draft? What happened to multiple championships?



But now we have multiple off seasons with a strategy of hope, the Pirates just being unlucky or MLB is not fair to small market teams.
PMike
Posts: 843
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 9:29 pm

What about the lineup?

Post by PMike »

4565766B6A040 wrote: So clearly last year they failed to assemble an adequate pitching staff.  Going into the season, they had Liriano and Cole as their 1-2, then a collection of Niese, Locke, Nicasio and Vogelsong with a AAA rotation of Glasnow, Taillon, Kuhl, Williams and Brault.



Nicasio was miscast as a starter, Niese was a scouting error, Locke was the usual Locke, but I think Vogelsong was a good signing.  He predictably fell off a cliff, but had the other players done anything, he could have been removed when he reached that cliff instead of being sent out there and watch his ERA move from 3 to 5 in a handful of appearances.



So for 2017, they have Taillon, Cole and Kuhl, and presumably a couple of warm bodies that they'll bring in.  Then the AAA rotation of Glasnow, Kingham, Brault, Williams (and that one guy who had a good year last year).  I only see the need for one sure thing starter, there is a good chance that one of those AAA guys is able to break through and pencil himself into the ML rotation.


So, I think what you're saying is, "let's do 2016 over in 2017"?



Instead of Cole and Liariano we have Cole and Tallion.

Tallion: could be a stud soon, less than a season but I take him any day.

Cole: potential either way. Just a fact. Last we saw of him there were a 100 questions raised. Often injuried.  Blow out potential. But what the heck, we'll assume he's going to pitch 200 critical innings. 

Kuhl - I like as a steady backend guy.  Less than a season and no expectations, until now. 

"Two warm bodies" till mid season. If (IF) this is Neal's approach after acknowledging that last year was a failed plan, then shame on him and he's not the GM i think he is. If the Pirates are thinking this way then I prefer them to acknowledge that their "original plan worked well but in the end injuries messed up expected arrivals, the best plan going forward is to step back a couple years AND trade current contract that will not realistically help them in 2-3 years."   

AAA guys: let's face it, this group did little to impress last year.  Kingham could be a good addition and I'm certainly not giving up on Glasnow nor any of the others.  But last year did not paint an obvious picture for 2017 and beyond.



In other words, let's try 2016 again.....




Yeah......not sure how anyone can think this is a sound strategy. It's exactly what they did last off season.  Sure....EVERYTHING could break right in 2017 and the could win 90 games. But more than likely....they win 78-83 games.



What happened to 2016 being a bridge to 2017?  What happened to the process leading to an infinite window of contention with teams exclusively built through the draft?  What happened to multiple championships?



But now we have multiple off seasons with a strategy of hope, the Pirates just being unlucky or MLB is not fair to small market teams.




I agree with you. Though, I think before last year they would have said that Liriano would be your 1/2 this year with Cole being the other part of that. Then, would have Taillon, Niese and Glasnow as the other three spots. Unfortunately, Liriano and Niese both blew up in their faces and Cole is a bit of an uncertainty.
Aaron
Posts: 329
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:15 pm

What about the lineup?

Post by Aaron »

475A7E7C72170 wrote: So clearly last year they failed to assemble an adequate pitching staff.  Going into the season, they had Liriano and Cole as their 1-2, then a collection of Niese, Locke, Nicasio and Vogelsong with a AAA rotation of Glasnow, Taillon, Kuhl, Williams and Brault.



Nicasio was miscast as a starter, Niese was a scouting error, Locke was the usual Locke, but I think Vogelsong was a good signing.  He predictably fell off a cliff, but had the other players done anything, he could have been removed when he reached that cliff instead of being sent out there and watch his ERA move from 3 to 5 in a handful of appearances.



So for 2017, they have Taillon, Cole and Kuhl, and presumably a couple of warm bodies that they'll bring in.  Then the AAA rotation of Glasnow, Kingham, Brault, Williams (and that one guy who had a good year last year).  I only see the need for one sure thing starter, there is a good chance that one of those AAA guys is able to break through and pencil himself into the ML rotation.


So, I think what you're saying is, "let's do 2016 over in 2017"?



Instead of Cole and Liariano we have Cole and Tallion.

Tallion: could be a stud soon, less than a season but I take him any day.

Cole: potential either way. Just a fact. Last we saw of him there were a 100 questions raised. Often injuried.  Blow out potential. But what the heck, we'll assume he's going to pitch 200 critical innings. 

Kuhl - I like as a steady backend guy.  Less than a season and no expectations, until now. 

"Two warm bodies" till mid season. If (IF) this is Neal's approach after acknowledging that last year was a failed plan, then shame on him and he's not the GM i think he is. If the Pirates are thinking this way then I prefer them to acknowledge that their "original plan worked well but in the end injuries messed up expected arrivals, the best plan going forward is to step back a couple years AND trade current contract that will not realistically help them in 2-3 years."   

AAA guys: let's face it, this group did little to impress last year.  Kingham could be a good addition and I'm certainly not giving up on Glasnow nor any of the others.  But last year did not paint an obvious picture for 2017 and beyond.



In other words, let's try 2016 again.....




Yeah......not sure how anyone can think this is a sound strategy. It's exactly what they did last off season.  Sure....EVERYTHING could break right in 2017 and the could win 90 games. But more than likely....they win 78-83 games.



What happened to 2016 being a bridge to 2017?  What happened to the process leading to an infinite window of contention with teams exclusively built through the draft?  What happened to multiple championships?



But now we have multiple off seasons with a strategy of hope, the Pirates just being unlucky or MLB is not fair to small market teams.




I agree with you.  Though, I think before last year they would have said that Liriano would be your 1/2 this year with Cole being the other part of that.  Then, would have Taillon, Niese and Glasnow as the other three spots.  Unfortunately, Liriano and Niese both blew up in their faces and Cole is a bit of an uncertainty.
I have hope Cole will rebound and Taillon for an entire year will help. But overall the pitching staff could be even worse than last season. No Melancon or Feliz and a declining Watson could make for a horrible bullpen



But....maybe it will all work out. Maybe Rivero stops walking a batter an inning. Maybe Watson has enough left in the tank. Maybe Nicasio is as good as David Todd would have us believe. Maybe Hutchison and Brault.....you get the point.
rucker59@gmail.com

What about the lineup?

Post by rucker59@gmail.com »

6545564B4A240 wrote: So clearly last year they failed to assemble an adequate pitching staff.  Going into the season, they had Liriano and Cole as their 1-2, then a collection of Niese, Locke, Nicasio and Vogelsong with a AAA rotation of Glasnow, Taillon, Kuhl, Williams and Brault.



Nicasio was miscast as a starter, Niese was a scouting error, Locke was the usual Locke, but I think Vogelsong was a good signing.  He predictably fell off a cliff, but had the other players done anything, he could have been removed when he reached that cliff instead of being sent out there and watch his ERA move from 3 to 5 in a handful of appearances.



So for 2017, they have Taillon, Cole and Kuhl, and presumably a couple of warm bodies that they'll bring in.  Then the AAA rotation of Glasnow, Kingham, Brault, Williams (and that one guy who had a good year last year).  I only see the need for one sure thing starter, there is a good chance that one of those AAA guys is able to break through and pencil himself into the ML rotation.


So, I think what you're saying is, "let's do 2016 over in 2017"?



Instead of Cole and Liariano we have Cole and Tallion.

Tallion: could be a stud soon, less than a season but I take him any day.

Cole: potential either way. Just a fact. Last we saw of him there were a 100 questions raised. Often injuried.  Blow out potential. But what the heck, we'll assume he's going to pitch 200 critical innings. 

Kuhl - I like as a steady backend guy.  Less than a season and no expectations, until now. 

"Two warm bodies" till mid season. If (IF) this is Neal's approach after acknowledging that last year was a failed plan, then shame on him and he's not the GM i think he is. If the Pirates are thinking this way then I prefer them to acknowledge that their "original plan worked well but in the end injuries messed up expected arrivals, the best plan going forward is to step back a couple years AND trade current contract that will not realistically help them in 2-3 years."   

AAA guys: let's face it, this group did little to impress last year.  Kingham could be a good addition and I'm certainly not giving up on Glasnow nor any of the others.  But last year did not paint an obvious picture for 2017 and beyond.



In other words, let's try 2016 again.....




Yeah......not sure how anyone can think this is a sound strategy. It's exactly what they did last off season.  Sure....EVERYTHING could break right in 2017 and the could win 90 games. But more than likely....they win 78-83 games.



What happened to 2016 being a bridge to 2017?  What happened to the process leading to an infinite window of contention with teams exclusively built through the draft?  What happened to multiple championships?



But now we have multiple off seasons with a strategy of hope, the Pirates just being unlucky or MLB is not fair to small market teams.




I agree with you.  Though, I think before last year they would have said that Liriano would be your 1/2 this year with Cole being the other part of that.  Then, would have Taillon, Niese and Glasnow as the other three spots.  Unfortunately, Liriano and Niese both blew up in their faces and Cole is a bit of an uncertainty.
I have hope Cole will rebound and Taillon for an entire year will help. But overall the pitching staff could be even worse than last season.  No Melancon or Feliz and a declining Watson could make for a horrible bullpen



But....maybe it will all work out. Maybe Rivero stops walking a batter an inning. Maybe Watson has enough left in the tank. Maybe Nicasio is as good as David Todd would have us believe. Maybe Hutchison and Brault.....you get the point. 




Yeah, that's the exact point I was trying to make - we're actually entering 2017 weaker then 2016 with the rotation. The top end through the prospect list, options look all around lower ceiling. Neal could change the dynamic with two home run acquisitions, but I fear two warm bodies.



A related Q: if Liariano was still on the team, his contract was something like $13M I think? Why can't that money, at least, be rolled into a decent pitcher?
dmetz
Posts: 1687
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 4:52 pm

What about the lineup?

Post by dmetz »

Niese was terrible 2nd half.  His peripherals were all messed up and he was pitching in a pitchers park against NL hitters.  There were flags all over him.  He just kept on being terrible.



Followed up his bad 2nd half with a bad spring and kept  it going through the season.



It was by no means a guarantee that he couldn't return to his 2014 form, but there were all kinds of flags on him.



We thought we could fix him and failed and it cost us Walker to do it.   We thought we could turn Nicasio into a starter and failed at that too.



Not only were we unable to magically turn these pitchers into high quality finds, we were unable to keep our good pitchers good (Cole and Liriano).  Until we salary dumped Frankie for nothing, then he pitched well the rest of the way.



In summary, Searage stinks right?  I mean, he gets all this credit when things go well surely he should be blamed when nothing goes well?



Or maybe he doesn't have much to do with any of it?



This is the same organization that hasn't taught and forced 7 foot tall RHP Tyler Glasnow to slide step in the minors. Real advanced stuff there. All you need is a stopwatch to know that you're GUARANTEED to give up a bunch of uncontested steals each game without it.



Stopwatches work the same in A ball as they do MLB
PMike
Posts: 843
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 9:29 pm

What about the lineup?

Post by PMike »

565F574648320 wrote: Niese was terrible 2nd half.  His peripherals were all messed up and he was pitching in a pitchers park against NL hitters.  There were flags all over him.  He just kept on being terrible.



Followed up his bad 2nd half with a bad spring and kept  it going through the season.



It was by no means a guarantee that he couldn't return to his 2014 form, but there were all kinds of flags on him.



We thought we could fix him and failed and it cost us Walker to do it.   We thought we could turn Nicasio into a starter and failed at that too.



Not only were we unable to magically turn these pitchers into high quality finds, we were unable to keep our good pitchers good (Cole and Liriano).  Until we salary dumped Frankie for nothing, then he pitched well the rest of the way.



In summary, Searage stinks right?  I mean, he gets all this credit when things go well surely he should be blamed when nothing goes well?



Or maybe he doesn't have much to do with any of it?



This is the same organization that hasn't taught and forced 7 foot tall RHP Tyler Glasnow to slide step in the minors.    Real advanced stuff there.  All you need is a stopwatch to know that you're GUARANTEED to give up a bunch of uncontested steals each game without it.



Stopwatches work the same in A ball as they do MLB


I have heard others say the same thing about Niese's 2015 first half/second half. That's not entirely true. The splits aren't that wide. At the end of June, he had a 3.90 ERA. He finished with a 4.15. From June 30 to Aug 4, his ERA actually dropped all the way to 3.50. Then he had 4 bad starts that jumped his ERA to 4.34. He gave up only 2 ER in his next 12 innings starting and then pitched 3.2 innings from the bullpen with only 1 run.



He had a bad run at the end of August/early September, but to say his his whole second half was terrible isn't exactly true.



I agree on your Searage take. That said, his track record (and the Pirates payroll/history) makes me want to give him the benefit of the doubt. They have to keep taking these risks knowing that sometimes it won't work out.



I also agree on Glasnow. If he doesn't come to ST or out of ST with a slide step, I'll be shocked and very concerned for his future.
rucker59@gmail.com

What about the lineup?

Post by rucker59@gmail.com »

I wonder which has the greater opportunity for significant success with $15M:

2 pitchers at $7.5M each

1 pitcher at $15M?



One of the issues I wonder about is how $$ is allocated by the Pirates. Trying to catch lightning in the bottle, the Pirates will spread Thin financial resources over several players. Part of the problem is their internal determination of individual contracts in relation to total payroll.



Maybe it's time to simply look for the best pitcher or player they can afford within the payroll. Forget 2 for 1 "opportunities". How about 1 Nova rather then a Niese/Vogie?



Catching lightening in a bottle is really hard even if Ray does magic.


PMike
Posts: 843
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 9:29 pm

What about the lineup?

Post by PMike »

2720363E3027606C153238343C397B363A38550 wrote: I wonder which has the greater opportunity for significant success with $15M:

2 pitchers at $7.5M each

1 pitcher at $15M?



One of the issues I wonder about is how $$ is allocated by the Pirates.  Trying to catch lightning in the bottle, the Pirates will spread Thin financial resources over several players.  Part of the problem is their internal determination of individual contracts in relation to total payroll.



Maybe it's time to simply look for the best pitcher or player they can afford within the payroll.  Forget 2 for 1 "opportunities".  How about 1 Nova rather then a Niese/Vogie?



Catching lightening in a bottle is really hard even if Ray does magic.






I think that's exactly the philosophy. The other factor I'm sure they consider is injury. It's really bad if you pay that $15 million guy and he gets injured.
rucker59@gmail.com

What about the lineup?

Post by rucker59@gmail.com »

4D507476781D0 wrote: I wonder which has the greater opportunity for significant success with $15M:

2 pitchers at $7.5M each

1 pitcher at $15M?



One of the issues I wonder about is how $$ is allocated by the Pirates.  Trying to catch lightning in the bottle, the Pirates will spread Thin financial resources over several players.  Part of the problem is their internal determination of individual contracts in relation to total payroll.



Maybe it's time to simply look for the best pitcher or player they can afford within the payroll.  Forget 2 for 1 "opportunities".  How about 1 Nova rather then a Niese/Vogie?



Catching lightening in a bottle is really hard even if Ray does magic.






I think that's exactly the philosophy.  The other factor I'm sure they consider is injury.  It's really bad if you pay that $15 million guy and he gets injured.




I think you're right (that's there philosophy), but maybe it's time to rethink. Maybe their own success in reclaimation projects with Ray was not sustainable. Maybe now is the time to get the best pitcher their money will buy, rather than spreading risk.
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