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Looking ahead to 2019 aka Hot Stove Thread

Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 7:55 pm
by maher.timothy20@gm
True enough about Maholm and Duke. Or Kingham, although that was one start.



My hope is that Archer makes and adjustment/gets his shit together and strings together 15 wins next year with an ERA south of 3.50. Weirder things have definitely happened. And he has the "stuff."

Looking ahead to 2019 aka Hot Stove Thread

Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 7:58 pm
by IABucFan
Didn't Duke have an ERA of like 1.50 or something after his first ten MLB starts or so?

Looking ahead to 2019 aka Hot Stove Thread

Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:32 pm
by Bobster21
0C0407302603242B450 wrote: Didn't Duke have an ERA of like 1.50 or something after his first ten MLB starts or so?
Duke was called up 7/2/05 and made 14 starts that season. Went 8-2 with 1.81 ERA. They changed his delivery the next year and the rest is history. In 2006 he gave up the most hits in MLB and had a 4.47 ERA and 1.500 WHIP. :(

Looking ahead to 2019 aka Hot Stove Thread

Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:25 pm
by Quail
131B182F391C3B345A0 wrote: I can't believe how shocked people are that Glasnow looks like he MIGHT be figuring it out. He was absolutely unhittable in the minors and had only about 130 IP with the big league club. People around here need to get some patience with pitchers. Lots of guys take 200+ IP in the majors to be usable.


I still wonder if the progress Glasnow has shown with the Rays would have ever happened with the Bucs.


But we didn't have to wonder. That's the frustrating part. We could have, you know, given him a few starts back in June. Instead he's getting that tryout in Tampa Bay, after we'd waited out his development for years.



And yes, I know we gave him starts last year, but that's the beside the point. He was in over his head last year. This year we set him up perfectly, let him gain some confidence out of the pen. He was primed and ready for some starts. Instead we got Brault and Kingham.








To be fair he was hardly stellar in low leverage middle relief while pitching for us. He was averaging 5.5 BB/9 innings. Not the kind of number that screams "let him get some starts". Since joining Tampa that number has been 2.8. Somehow he's cut his walk rate in half. I don't think that was what would have happened in Pittsburgh just by giving him some starts. That seems like a coaching issue that was poorly addressed by the Pirates. When coaching failures go unrecognized an organization can make some serious mistakes evaluating talent.




But is it a coaching thing? I mean, it's not like the strike zone changed on the flight from Pittsburgh to Tampa. The plate's the same size. Same 60'6" between the mound and the plate. Not exactly a novel concept that pitchers have more success when they throw more strikes and walk fewer guys. Doesn't exactly take a rocket scientist to say, "Hey, Tyler...see this box on the screen here? It's called the strike zone. Throw the ball in it." I guess what I'm saying is that unless TB drastically changed his delivery, these results seem to be mentally driven. And even if they did change his delivery, the results wouldn't happen almost instantaneously. Good for him, whatever it is. I'm not convinced it's real. Lots of guys have strung a few decent outings together. Zack Duke and Paul Maholm looked like the next big thing when they came up. That didn't exactly work out as planned.


Well, that's a good question. As you say the strike zone didn't change from the time Glasnow left Pittsburgh and arrived in Tampa. I can't believe Glasnow wasn't trying just as hard to throw strikes when he pitched for the Pirates as he does for the Rays which makes me suspect that Tampa's coaching approach (including physical, mental and strategic elements) is the difference. Could it be pure random luck, a new set of contact lenses, a recently started zen meditation class or a new anti-Steve Blass disease diet? It's possible, but I'm a firm believer in Occam's Razor, and the simplest explanation is that Glasnow's gotten more effective coaching. Time will probably give us a more definitive answer.  

Looking ahead to 2019 aka Hot Stove Thread

Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:49 pm
by Bobster21
6E4A5E56533F0 wrote: I can't believe how shocked people are that Glasnow looks like he MIGHT be figuring it out. He was absolutely unhittable in the minors and had only about 130 IP with the big league club. People around here need to get some patience with pitchers. Lots of guys take 200+ IP in the majors to be usable.


I still wonder if the progress Glasnow has shown with the Rays would have ever happened with the Bucs.


But we didn't have to wonder. That's the frustrating part. We could have, you know, given him a few starts back in June. Instead he's getting that tryout in Tampa Bay, after we'd waited out his development for years.



And yes, I know we gave him starts last year, but that's the beside the point. He was in over his head last year. This year we set him up perfectly, let him gain some confidence out of the pen. He was primed and ready for some starts. Instead we got Brault and Kingham.








To be fair he was hardly stellar in low leverage middle relief while pitching for us. He was averaging 5.5 BB/9 innings. Not the kind of number that screams "let him get some starts". Since joining Tampa that number has been 2.8. Somehow he's cut his walk rate in half. I don't think that was what would have happened in Pittsburgh just by giving him some starts. That seems like a coaching issue that was poorly addressed by the Pirates. When coaching failures go unrecognized an organization can make some serious mistakes evaluating talent.




But is it a coaching thing? I mean, it's not like the strike zone changed on the flight from Pittsburgh to Tampa. The plate's the same size. Same 60'6" between the mound and the plate. Not exactly a novel concept that pitchers have more success when they throw more strikes and walk fewer guys. Doesn't exactly take a rocket scientist to say, "Hey, Tyler...see this box on the screen here? It's called the strike zone. Throw the ball in it." I guess what I'm saying is that unless TB drastically changed his delivery, these results seem to be mentally driven. And even if they did change his delivery, the results wouldn't happen almost instantaneously. Good for him, whatever it is. I'm not convinced it's real. Lots of guys have strung a few decent outings together. Zack Duke and Paul Maholm looked like the next big thing when they came up. That didn't exactly work out as planned.


Well, that's a good question. As you say the strike zone didn't change from the time Glasnow left Pittsburgh and arrived in Tampa. I can't believe Glasnow wasn't trying just as hard to throw strikes when he pitched for the Pirates as he does for the Rays which makes me suspect that Tampa's coaching approach (including physical, mental and strategic elements) is the difference. Could it be pure random luck, a new set of contact lenses, a recently started zen meditation class or a new anti-Steve Blass disease diet? It's possible, but I'm a firm believer in Occam's Razor, and the simplest explanation is that Glasnow's gotten more effective coaching. Time will probably give us a more definitive answer.  
I think the biggest difference is that Glasnow was taking the mound as a Pirate thinking that he had disappointed everyone and that everyone was now just waiting for him to screw up. As a Ray he was taking the mound for a team that just made a trade to acquire him and was waiting to see how good he can be.

Looking ahead to 2019 aka Hot Stove Thread

Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:09 am
by ChitownBucco
5B767B6A6D7C6B2B28190 wrote: Didn't Duke have an ERA of like 1.50 or something after his first ten MLB starts or so?
Duke was called up 7/2/05 and made 14 starts that season. Went 8-2 with 1.81 ERA. They changed his delivery the next year and the rest is history.




you mean the 12 years and 534 MLB apperances netting him about 30 million dollars in his career thus far...

Looking ahead to 2019 aka Hot Stove Thread

Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:28 am
by SCBucco
614C41505746511112230 wrote: I can't believe how shocked people are that Glasnow looks like he MIGHT be figuring it out. He was absolutely unhittable in the minors and had only about 130 IP with the big league club. People around here need to get some patience with pitchers. Lots of guys take 200+ IP in the majors to be usable.


Unhittable in the minors and the majors - two totally different things.  We have seen this in Pittsburgh before.  To be honest, I really think Glasnow needed a change of scenery.  I didn't foresee him improving here and becoming a good pitcher.  Cool, he MIGHT have figured it out in Tampa.  Until he puts together a full year of it, I don't think he has figured out anything just yet.
I agree. The problem seemed to be between his ears. From the first moment he was promoted he struggled very badly with the Pirates. Despite those gaudy minor league stats, which demonstrated his immense potential, he always seemed to be dealing with failure as a Pirate and just trying to show that he wasn't a dud rather than showing his capabilities. In other words, as a Pirate he was trying to avoid his floor. As a Ray, he's focused on showing his ceiling. The change of scenery was perfect for him. He got away from a team he felt he was letting down, which no doubt added pressure every time he entered a game. He went to a team that made a trade because they wanted him and immediately gave him a pat on the back by telling him he was in the rotation. Looks like that was the confidence builder he needed. I don't blame the Pirates. It had gotten to the point where they breathed a sigh of relief every time he survived a short outing without melting down. Glad to see him doing well now. But I don't think that would have happened with the Pirates. 




Totally agree with this and the way you put it. There is a very small sample size here. We don't know what he will turn out to be. Cole turned out to be a stud with a change of scenery; same with Ground Chuck and going back even further, Jason Schmidt. Time will tell with TG.

Looking ahead to 2019 aka Hot Stove Thread

Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:18 am
by skinnyhorse
5E4E4F786E6E620D0 wrote: I can't believe how shocked people are that Glasnow looks like he MIGHT be figuring it out. He was absolutely unhittable in the minors and had only about 130 IP with the big league club. People around here need to get some patience with pitchers. Lots of guys take 200+ IP in the majors to be usable.


Unhittable in the minors and the majors - two totally different things.  We have seen this in Pittsburgh before.  To be honest, I really think Glasnow needed a change of scenery.  I didn't foresee him improving here and becoming a good pitcher.  Cool, he MIGHT have figured it out in Tampa.  Until he puts together a full year of it, I don't think he has figured out anything just yet.
I agree. The problem seemed to be between his ears. From the first moment he was promoted he struggled very badly with the Pirates. Despite those gaudy minor league stats, which demonstrated his immense potential, he always seemed to be dealing with failure as a Pirate and just trying to show that he wasn't a dud rather than showing his capabilities. In other words, as a Pirate he was trying to avoid his floor. As a Ray, he's focused on showing his ceiling. The change of scenery was perfect for him. He got away from a team he felt he was letting down, which no doubt added pressure every time he entered a game. He went to a team that made a trade because they wanted him and immediately gave him a pat on the back by telling him he was in the rotation. Looks like that was the confidence builder he needed. I don't blame the Pirates. It had gotten to the point where they breathed a sigh of relief every time he survived a short outing without melting down. Glad to see him doing well now. But I don't think that would have happened with the Pirates. 




Totally agree with this and the way you put it.  There is a very small sample size here.  We don't know what he will turn out to be.  Cole turned out to be a stud with a change of scenery; same with Ground Chuck and going back even further, Jason Schmidt.  Time will tell with TG.
I was truly shocked at the way the Hurdle and his so called coaching staff kept throwing him out there when it was obvious he had lost all confidence. He should have been put in the bullpen after his early struggles and brought on slowly like they did this year. Pitchers psyche is nothing to mess with just look at Steve Blass, and Rick Ankiel. I believe the coaching staff damaged TG and I don't know that he'll ever recover.

Looking ahead to 2019 aka Hot Stove Thread

Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:03 pm
by SCBucco
7052415C5F5A5D52714650505C330 wrote: I just want NH to take action and do something proactive, and not address these issues from within.



It will be SO PIRATES for NH to address the Polanco situation by using an internal stop-gap of Ludlow and Frazier in RF, and then Kramer/Newman at 2B, etc...



No, he needs to go out and get an ACTUAL outfielder with pop, preferably a lefty. I liked the Granderson idea that someone mentioned.



And go out and do something about 3B ... not just settling on Moran and saying that he should improve.



And go out and get a danged LH starter ... Happ, Gio, Corbin, etc...


We all want to pull out hair out with Nova. Gio would be the same at best, more than likely worse. He is more of an enigma than Nova. Go has the stuff, but ...

Looking ahead to 2019 aka Hot Stove Thread

Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:41 pm
by BucsFaninGA
I think we have a nucleus for a decent team in  2019. The front office will have $$ to spend to improve this team. Question will be what will NH do…I tire of his lines and reasoning to support his lack of activity…



Starting Pitching…This year we saw the rotation get that valuable experience. Jameson Tallion and Trevor Williams really excelled. Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove and Ivan Nova could make this rotation very solid with consistent efforts in 2019. Keller is not going to be ready in 2019. He struggled at times with Triple AAA. I say give him a season there to get his act together and the reps in…Kingham, He certainly has looked overmatched a lot over the last few weeks. I thought he would pitch better. Clay Holmes, no one I would rely on.



Back End of Bullpen-Strong from Felipe Vasquez to Kela, Crick, Rodriguez, and Santana. Too bad Kuhl went down due to TJ. I would love to see what he could do in small samples out of the pen. Would be nice if we could find a lefthander like an Ollie Perez. Brault may be better the second time around.



Catching…I would stick with what we had this season across the board. We had one of the best duos in the majors. I say let Francisco play out his contract. I love his enthusiasm and he seems to have found a routine that keeps him agile behind the plate. Diaz had a good season as backup. I personally like the pairing. And I think Stallings could be a successful backup. Hope NH gets creative in retaining him. Larnarvay was not bad either. One time RedSox prospect seems to be clicking in a reserve role.



1st base…Gotta to let Josh Bell have another year. Sure he tinkers with his swing. I think he has had a combination of some bad luck and too much tinkering. At times this year, he has hit the ball right on the button but only for a long out…I’m hoping he bounces back in 2019 with a very productive year! Not sure what to do with Jose Osuna. Very much on the fence with Jose!



2nd base…Gotta go with Adam Frazier! The kid can hit and hit at the top of the order as well. And given the chance to start at 2B, I think he will be fine!



SS- I would sign Hechavarria or Mercer for insurance. Both are steady, reliable defenders. Mercer the edge in hitting! Jordy never was flashy, but I feel he got the job done and came up with a lot of timely hits! I am not sold on Kevin Kramer at SS or 3rd or 2nd. He needs more time at Triple AAA while Kevin Newman is coming around, Kramer is still spinning his wheels. I would let Kevin Newman have a year to get the big leagues down under the tutelage of Mercer or Hechavarria.



3rd base…Moran is a bit of a puzzle. He has had a below average season for a third-baseman from a power position. He looks to have very little range too. I am really uncertain if he is going to be a Bucco for very long if K’Bryan Hayes continues to grow. I would go out and sign a player who could play a lot of 3rd just in case Moran nosedives in 2019…Cabrera would not be a bad move. The Front Office will not spend the $$ to bring in Donaldson. If David Freese were available, I would bring him back. But we have to find someone to play 3rd as I don’t feel Moran is going to be anything more than what he is now…Kang is yesterday’s news. Signing him is a waste of cash. He has not played in the big for 2 full seasons. He may rebound, but I just wouldn’t bank on it!



Pablo Reyes is my choice as utility man extraordinaire! I think the kid can do it and should get the chance to prove it! I have liked what I have seen over the past few weeks! Man, he has the ability to play all over the place too! I like his hustle and he has pop in his stick!



LF-Sign Corey Dickerson and leave him there. The guy can do it and showed everyone he is not a liability in the field. I think that was a gift from the baseball gods and we were wise to take advantage of the situation with Tampa Bay cutting him loose. I like Corey Dickerson!



CF-Marte…I grew a little tired of him not hustling this season and felt at times, he was just needing a seat on the bench…But credit Hurdle with getting the most out of Starling! Marte is a tough guy to figure…I wouldn’t want to be in Hurdle’s shoes. Marte is very unpredictable.



RF…With El Coffee down for the majority of the season…This is the offensive spot that needs attention. Matt Adams is no RF. He played here in Atlanta in 2017 and while he can hit, he is no fielder outside of 1stbase. They moved Freddie Freeman to 3rd in 2017 to get Adams AB’s, but it didn’t pan out. And this is not the first time the Bucs have needed a left-handed hitter. There must be some reluctance in signing Adams by the front office. Granderson is who I would target! He is a proven vet, a left-handed hitter to boot and a guy that leads by doing! I don’t think you could miss with Curtis Granderson!!! Chisenhall is very slow and goes through a number of periods where he loses his confidence and can’t hit. Cleveland has hung onto him for years thinking he would find that niche and turn the corner. 



Luplow while one heck of a hustler just does not look to be a fit. I mean he needs the Abs to continue his growth. He may be a player who excels in another system, but as a Bucco, I don’t think he is going to be much more than 5th OF and pinch-hitter. He has shown vast improvements in the field, but wow at the dish, he continues to struggle. Really feel for the guy as I like him personally, but don’t feel he will be the best option to play RF in 2019 as the starter. 



NH has his work cut out for him. I really hope he gets a couple more pieces to add to the puzzle and doesn’t rely on the organization to provide the answers. We need better players to improve overall! If Huntington and Nutting don’t bring in players, attendance in 2019 will be even less…



A Bucs fan since 1960! Hoping that we can get to the playoffs and WS again in my lifetime…Beat’em Bucs!!!  8-)