Looking ahead to 2019 aka Hot Stove Thread

IABucFan · Post by **IABucFan** » Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:41 pm

I figured I'd start a thread looking ahead to next year. I'm very optimistic about our pitching staff, but I see a lot of need to upgrade the lineup.

Rotation--I think the rotation could be a real strength next year. If what we're seeing from both Williams and Taillon is legit, that gives us two top starters to go with Archer, Musgrove, and one more. I'm on the fence about Nova. He's under contract for $9.17 million. Could we trade him and better allocate those resources, assuming that some combination of Keller, Kingham, Kuhl, Holmes, Brault, or someone from outside the organization can duplicate his production? Or, keep him? $9.17 million for a starter who takes the ball every five days and generally keeps his team in the game is a bargain in today's MLB.

Bullpen--again, another strength. The back end is very good, and I believe they will remain so. I like what I've seen from Rodriguez, Crick, Kela, and Vazquez. Brault has been ok coming out of the pen. Depending on the severity of his injury, I really like Kuhl as a potential long guy also. All in all, the bullpen should be a strength next year.

Catching--Cervelli is under contract next year for $11.5 million. Personally, I think they should try every avenue to trade him. He's had a good year, but I still maintain that Diaz is our best catcher. I'd be very comfortable with him as the every day starter. Trade Cervelli, free up that money (or eat it and get a better player in return, I don't care), and sign a decent back-up (because I have no faith in Stallings as a #2...he's fine as your #3 catcher providing insurance on the 40 man roster).

Infield--There will probably be a lot of turnover here. I can't see a scenario where Mercer is resigned. I also doubt they pick up Harrison's option. He has a $1 million buyout, I believe. Between the two, that should free up $16 million based on this year's salary. I also doubt they pick up Kang's option. He'll be 32, hasn't faced MLB pitching in over two years, coming off an injury, and still having questions about his character. I think they can do better, maybe even from within the organization (Hayes, for instance).

If Moran develops, and Bell bounces back, the corners should be OK. I've seen enough that I'm ok figuring that Moran improves, and Bell shows that this year was a sophomore slump.

I think Newman, Kramer, and Frazier can provide as much offense as Mercer and Harrison provided, with minimal drop-off defensively. And for far less $$$.

Outfield--Dickerson will be in his last year of arbitration, and while he didn't show a lot of power this year, I think he still provides value, and I'd like them to pencil him in in left field every day. Marte is scheduled for a $2.5 million raise to $10.33 million. I'd like to bring him back, but I also look at him and see a guy who has never lived up to his potential. If they decide to move on, I can't say I'll shed a tear. Polanco had a great year before derailing it with one of the worst slides in MLB history. Hopefully, his timeline for recovery is closer to seven months than nine.

Here's a name for a potential fourth outfielder...Andrew McCutchen. I'm not just throwing that out for sentimental reasons. Would he want to come back to Pittsburgh as a bench guy? I don't know. But, the name aside, he seems to fit a need the Pirates have for someone who can play right field until Polanco is ready, and can fill in in center when Marte needs a day off. Remove the name from the equation...the glove fits.

Schedule--I haven't had a chance to look at the schedule, but I know we swap the AL Central for the AL West, and go from six games with the Tigers to four. So, the schedule definitely gets a little bit tougher.

Manager/coaching staff--I'm in the minority, I know. But I want Hurdle brought back. I have kind of come around on the whole resting players bit. But, all in all, I think he's a good manager who gets the most out of his players. I don't know that there is anyone better out there. I did see some people throw Jay Bell's name around. I definitely think he'd make a good manager. I really liked him as a player when I was a kid. In fact, I threw his name out there as a potential candidate before they hired Hurdle. So, if they do decide to go in a different direction, Bell would be my first choice. But, I could also get behind Cora. I don't really care for him as a third base coach, but I think he'd be a guy the players would respect, which IMHO, is the most important trait in a manager.

One more thing regarding MLB as a whole...please keep the DH out of the National League, next year, in 2020, and forever. I hate the DH. I think bringing the DH to the NL would be very bad for the already penny-pinching Pirates. They'd have one more "regular" that they'd need to pay. I also like that the DH brings more strategy to the NL game.

All in all, I think the Pirates can be competitive next year, mostly on the strength of their pitching. They should have a lot of money to play with just from Mercer and Harrison coming off the books, even more if they decide to trade Cervelli and/or Nova. If they are smart in how they use that money, I think they'll be in the race for the NL WC all year, and could potentially challenge for the division.

Just my two cents worth. Or maybe more like ten cents worth. Debate and discuss at your leisure.

NOTE: Gonna pin this and make it the official OBN Hot Stove Thread for 2019.[reason]To change the name of the thread[/reason]

mouse · Post by **mouse** » Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:52 pm

Pitching, to me at least, seems to be an up and down thing. Pitchers who have been good this year may well not next. I would like to see Hurdle give shorter leashes to all of them, until it's clear they are going to be able to perform well. (I feel that way more so about position players - he's good about allowing people to play their way out of a slump, but there should be some reasonable point where he shifts the slumping player to less time and gives someone else a shot).

I can see them offering Kang an incentive laden contract -whether he takes it or not is another matter. I would consider using Moran at first, if Bell does not have a bounce-back start to the year. They really could use someone productive, either at third or as an outfielder.

notes34 · Post by **notes34** » Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:58 pm

I agree with a lot of what you stated. I would bring Nova back, he has pitched pretty well. I don't think they could cobble together a combination of their depth and get the same results.

Where I completely and totally disagree with you is Moran. He will hit for a decent average but that's it. No power, no speed, no range, and a below average glove. I don't see the physical skill set to get much more out of him. His approach doesn't lend itself to much or any improvement in power. If he somehow manages to start pulling the ball he could hit a few more HR's. I find it very unlikely. He is an opposite field gap hitter with terrible speed. That is a poor combination. We desperately need a corner IF.

maher.timothy20@gm · Post by **maher.timothy20@gm** » Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:25 pm

The Polanco injury changes everything. We should assume he'll be out all next year (even if he gets back in May it'll take until August to get his timing back). Before the injury I was in favor of signing somebody like JA Happ or Ryu and sending Nova on his way. But with Polanco gone we need offense. And anyway with the way Nova's been pitching maybe the best option is to keep him.

Moran isn't an everyday starter. I don't see it ever happening. I'd sign a guy like Escobar who can play SS or 3B. Pray that Kang comes back. Maybe Moustakas if we can't get Escobar.

I don't see anybody signing Cervelli. And maybe that's not so bad. Diaz slowly takes over as starter with Cervelli there as his tutor.

maher.timothy20@gm · Post by **maher.timothy20@gm** » Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:26 pm

Also, I feel good about Bell rebounding. I feel confident that he can hit 25+ homers--because he's already done it.

mouse · Post by **mouse** » Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:42 pm

I like the idea of someone who can handle short and third, and hit a little as well. I have serious doubts about Moran as well. On Bell, the potential is certainly there. As the announcers like to say on young players (when they start off well), they start well, then the league adjusts, and they have to adjust back. You'd like to see an adjustment back that doesn't take all year, but who knows. And if can hit 25 HRs, he'd be an asset.

Bobster21 · Post by **Bobster21** » Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:52 pm

3133292F395C0 wrote: I like the idea of someone who can handle short and third, and hit a little as well. I have serious doubts about Moran as well. On Bell, the potential is certainly there. As the announcers like to say on young players (when they start off well), they start well, then the league adjusts, and they have to adjust back. You'd like to see an adjustment back that doesn't take all year, but who knows. And if can hit 25 HRs, he'd be an asset.
I don't think the problem with Bell is that the league adjusted. I think the problem with Bell is Bell. He's constantly tinkering with his swing and gets into extended funks where he swings very poorly, often alligator arming it or chopping down and rarely with a strong level swing. When he uses a good swing, he hits well and drives the ball. But he's very inconsistent. He's got to figure this out or he will always struggle for long stretches.

Quail · Post by **Quail** » Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:53 pm

I agree in large part with what IABucFan has stated with a few reservations:

With questions concerning Kuhl's health for 2019 I keep Nova. Brault, Kingham and Keller might push for a rotation spot but Nova provides a no doubt option that allows those three to develop without undue pressure.

I would rather see the Pirates sign Hechavarria as middle infield insurance rather than a 4th outfielder. Using Frazier or Luplow as the 4th outfielder should be just fine.

I want Hurdle gone. For just one example among many, in 2017 & 2018 Clint played Sean Rodriguez in 105 games and allowed him 279 plate appearances while watching him bat .167 and OPS around .550 while his defense went down the crapper. Seriously, what kind of manager would think this is a sound strategy for winning?

SammyKhalifa · Post by **SammyKhalifa** » Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:24 pm

63617B7D6B0E0 wrote: I like the idea of someone who can handle short and third, and hit a little as well. I have serious doubts about Moran as well. On Bell, the potential is certainly there. As the announcers like to say on young players (when they start off well), they start well, then the league adjusts, and they have to adjust back. You'd like to see an adjustment back that doesn't take all year, but who knows. And if can hit 25 HRs, he'd be an asset.

How is Asdrubal Cabrera's defense these days?

SCBucco · Post by **SCBucco** » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:06 pm

705440484D210 wrote: I agree in large part with what IABucFan has stated with a few reservations:

With questions concerning Kuhl's health for 2019 I keep Nova. Brault, Kingham and Keller might push for a rotation spot but Nova provides a no doubt option that allows those three to develop without undue pressure.

I would rather see the Pirates sign Hechavarria as middle infield insurance rather than a 4th outfielder. Using Frazier or Luplow as the 4th outfielder should be just fine.

I want Hurdle gone. For just one example among many, in 2017 & 2018 Clint played Sean Rodriguez in 105 games and allowed him 279 plate appearances while watching him bat .167 and OPS around .550 while his defense went down the crapper. Seriously, what kind of manager would think this is a sound strategy for winning?

I don't want Brault or Holmes anywhere near the rotation. I don't think either is good.

I would not resign Harrison or Mercer. Both look gone. Use that $$$ on signing Moustakas.

I have faith in the starting rotation for once.

Bullpen - Vasquez, Kela, Santana, Crick and Rodriguez is a good start.

Catcher - not opposed to dealing Cervelli. However, Diaz comes across as fragile. If he can stay heathy, he could put up better numbers than Frankie Cervelli. There are some interesting names out there as catching free agents. We aren't signing Grandal, but Mesoraco? Lucroy? Suzuki? Maldonado? I have little faith in stallings and we have little as far as talent on the farm at the position. Stafford is the only C prospect among our top 25 and he was only in A ball.