516C727F707A71537B6C7D7B7A1E0 wrote: So clearly last year they failed to assemble an adequate pitching staff. Going into the season, they had Liriano and Cole as their 1-2, then a collection of Niese, Locke, Nicasio and Vogelsong with a AAA rotation of Glasnow, Taillon, Kuhl, Williams and Brault.
Nicasio was miscast as a starter, Niese was a scouting error, Locke was the usual Locke, but I think Vogelsong was a good signing. He predictably fell off a cliff, but had the other players done anything, he could have been removed when he reached that cliff instead of being sent out there and watch his ERA move from 3 to 5 in a handful of appearances.
So for 2017, they have Taillon, Cole and Kuhl, and presumably a couple of warm bodies that they'll bring in. Then the AAA rotation of Glasnow, Kingham, Brault, Williams (and that one guy who had a good year last year). I only see the need for one sure thing starter, there is a good chance that one of those AAA guys is able to break through and pencil himself into the ML rotation.
Last year in the pitching was a series of unfortunate events. You are right, Liriano and Cole were supposed to be 1-2. They pitched terrible and/or were hurt. The disaster all started there.
Personally, I think it is hard to blame scouting for Niese. He literally had the worst season of his career and it wasn't close. He never pitched anywhere close to that bad. It was completely unforeseen. I don't think they expected him to be a world beater, but a 4.00 ERA (or perhaps slightly under) and eat some innings. Then renew him for this year. His collapse was a bit surprising.
I agreed about Niscasio (though pretty much everyone agreed he deserved a chance to start after his great ST).
Taillon and Cole saved this team last year.
What about the lineup?
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OrlandoMerced
What about the lineup?
I disagree about Niese, I believe that was a big time failure at the ML scouting level. He did not fit the Pirates pitch calling strategy. The main reason Niese had such terrible numbers in Pittsburgh (massive spike in HR) was that his stuff doesn't play inside to RH batters. That's obviously an arm's length analysis, I don't know what tapes they were watching, but I assume his pitch selection was looked at and the success rates of those pitches as well. None of us are in the room or have the figures, but there was probably something hidden in the details to predict how Niese would do on the inside corner of the plate.
What about the lineup?
The Mets having removed Niese from their starting rotation about mid-way through the 2015 season should also have been a pretty clear red flag for the Pirates scouting department. That should have at least given them second thoughts about trading an asset like Walker for him.
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rucker59@gmail.com
What about the lineup?
76746E687E1B0 wrote: The Rays are right up there on my list of teams to avoid when it comes to trading. They are always after the top-most dollar in a deal (although I suppose they all are).
Pittsburgh's problem last year was that they planned for young pitchers from AAA to be ready mid-year, so they had to look for guys to slot in for part year. The guys who profile for that are either really marginal or want a better set-up (I am talking now of what NH would actually do, not some dream of what he would do if things were different and they had money to spend and a willingness to spend it). That hurt them getting pitchers last year and from what I can see it's hurting them again this year. Of course this year there just weren't many good free-agent pitchers out there.
Unfortunately I think you're probably correct. That's the "Hoping and wishing" plan, which as most people responsible for planning will tell you, is no plan at all....
Pittsburgh's problem last year was that they planned for young pitchers from AAA to be ready mid-year, so they had to look for guys to slot in for part year. The guys who profile for that are either really marginal or want a better set-up (I am talking now of what NH would actually do, not some dream of what he would do if things were different and they had money to spend and a willingness to spend it). That hurt them getting pitchers last year and from what I can see it's hurting them again this year. Of course this year there just weren't many good free-agent pitchers out there.
Unfortunately I think you're probably correct. That's the "Hoping and wishing" plan, which as most people responsible for planning will tell you, is no plan at all....
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rucker59@gmail.com
What about the lineup?
724F515C53595270584F5E58593D0 wrote: So clearly last year they failed to assemble an adequate pitching staff. Going into the season, they had Liriano and Cole as their 1-2, then a collection of Niese, Locke, Nicasio and Vogelsong with a AAA rotation of Glasnow, Taillon, Kuhl, Williams and Brault.
Nicasio was miscast as a starter, Niese was a scouting error, Locke was the usual Locke, but I think Vogelsong was a good signing. He predictably fell off a cliff, but had the other players done anything, he could have been removed when he reached that cliff instead of being sent out there and watch his ERA move from 3 to 5 in a handful of appearances.
So for 2017, they have Taillon, Cole and Kuhl, and presumably a couple of warm bodies that they'll bring in. Then the AAA rotation of Glasnow, Kingham, Brault, Williams (and that one guy who had a good year last year). I only see the need for one sure thing starter, there is a good chance that one of those AAA guys is able to break through and pencil himself into the ML rotation.
So, I think what you're saying is, "let's do 2016 over in 2017"?
Instead of Cole and Liariano we have Cole and Tallion.
Tallion: could be a stud soon, less than a season but I take him any day.
Cole: potential either way. Just a fact. Last we saw of him there were a 100 questions raised. Often injuried. Blow out potential. But what the heck, we'll assume he's going to pitch 200 critical innings.
Kuhl - I like as a steady backend guy. Less than a season and no expectations, until now.
"Two warm bodies" till mid season. If (IF) this is Neal's approach after acknowledging that last year was a failed plan, then shame on him and he's not the GM i think he is. If the Pirates are thinking this way then I prefer them to acknowledge that their "original plan worked well but in the end injuries messed up expected arrivals, the best plan going forward is to step back a couple years AND trade current contract that will not realistically help them in 2-3 years."
AAA guys: let's face it, this group did little to impress last year. Kingham could be a good addition and I'm certainly not giving up on Glasnow nor any of the others. But last year did not paint an obvious picture for 2017 and beyond.
In other words, let's try 2016 again.....
Nicasio was miscast as a starter, Niese was a scouting error, Locke was the usual Locke, but I think Vogelsong was a good signing. He predictably fell off a cliff, but had the other players done anything, he could have been removed when he reached that cliff instead of being sent out there and watch his ERA move from 3 to 5 in a handful of appearances.
So for 2017, they have Taillon, Cole and Kuhl, and presumably a couple of warm bodies that they'll bring in. Then the AAA rotation of Glasnow, Kingham, Brault, Williams (and that one guy who had a good year last year). I only see the need for one sure thing starter, there is a good chance that one of those AAA guys is able to break through and pencil himself into the ML rotation.
So, I think what you're saying is, "let's do 2016 over in 2017"?
Instead of Cole and Liariano we have Cole and Tallion.
Tallion: could be a stud soon, less than a season but I take him any day.
Cole: potential either way. Just a fact. Last we saw of him there were a 100 questions raised. Often injuried. Blow out potential. But what the heck, we'll assume he's going to pitch 200 critical innings.
Kuhl - I like as a steady backend guy. Less than a season and no expectations, until now.
"Two warm bodies" till mid season. If (IF) this is Neal's approach after acknowledging that last year was a failed plan, then shame on him and he's not the GM i think he is. If the Pirates are thinking this way then I prefer them to acknowledge that their "original plan worked well but in the end injuries messed up expected arrivals, the best plan going forward is to step back a couple years AND trade current contract that will not realistically help them in 2-3 years."
AAA guys: let's face it, this group did little to impress last year. Kingham could be a good addition and I'm certainly not giving up on Glasnow nor any of the others. But last year did not paint an obvious picture for 2017 and beyond.
In other words, let's try 2016 again.....
What about the lineup?
301400080D610 wrote: The Mets having removed Niese from their starting rotation about mid-way through the 2015 season should also have been a pretty clear red flag for the Pirates scouting department. That should have at least given them second thoughts about trading an asset like Walker for him.
I don't remember him being removed from their rotation. He started 29 games that year. That's pretty much a full season of starts every fifth day. And, he had a 4.13 ERA.
If he did get bumped (and I don't remember that), it was likely less him than it was having a rotation of Colon, Harvey, Syndergaard, DeGrom, and (just called up and dominant) Matz all healthy.
Niese was traded because they had a ton of pitching and he was the least of those 6. The other 5 of which were basically pitching like all stars at the end of that year. That's why they almost won the WS.
I don't remember him being removed from their rotation. He started 29 games that year. That's pretty much a full season of starts every fifth day. And, he had a 4.13 ERA.
If he did get bumped (and I don't remember that), it was likely less him than it was having a rotation of Colon, Harvey, Syndergaard, DeGrom, and (just called up and dominant) Matz all healthy.
Niese was traded because they had a ton of pitching and he was the least of those 6. The other 5 of which were basically pitching like all stars at the end of that year. That's why they almost won the WS.
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rucker59@gmail.com
What about the lineup?
Actually, comparing the Pirates' projected rotation of 2017 to what was projected for 2016, 2017 looks much weaker:
Preseason 2016, Lirano, Cole, Locke + Tallion and Glasnow looks considerably stronger than current projection of 2017
Cole, Tallion, Kuhl + Glasnow, et al.
I think we can expect 2017 rotation to be better then the actually production of 2016, but I don't think we can go into 2017 with the expectations we had going in 2016. I guess that's why I can't understand going into 2017 with our current core.
The unknown is, who will Neal pick up. A significant trade is still possible and I support.
Preseason 2016, Lirano, Cole, Locke + Tallion and Glasnow looks considerably stronger than current projection of 2017
Cole, Tallion, Kuhl + Glasnow, et al.
I think we can expect 2017 rotation to be better then the actually production of 2016, but I don't think we can go into 2017 with the expectations we had going in 2016. I guess that's why I can't understand going into 2017 with our current core.
The unknown is, who will Neal pick up. A significant trade is still possible and I support.
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OrlandoMerced
What about the lineup?
I think we have to take it for granted that the Pirates bring in another competent SP. There were some Nova rumblings today, apparently his offers are in the 3 years 36M range. Which is risky, I would prefer a two year deal, but if other teams are going three, the Pirates should meet that. Then they could let Kuhl, Brault, Glasnow and Williams compete for the last two rotation spots.
What about the lineup?
Neise - this is what fangraphs said about him prior to the 2015 season:
The Quick Opinion: Niese showed signs of being a solid fantasy starter in the past, and he’s still relatively young. But many of his peripherals have long been trending the wrong way, and he now projects as the fifth or sixth best starter on his own team.
This is what fangraphs said prior to 2016:
Jon Niese saw a rebound in his ground ball rate in 2015 and yet he oddly gave up a career high 14.3% home run per fly ball rate. It was that kind of year for Niese, who after seeing a velocity decline for four straight years actually had an uptick in his fastball velocity in 2015. Yet, his strikeout rate was a career low 14.7% with a dismal 5.8% swinging strike rate.
They focus on him not being good for fantasy baseball
The Quick Opinion: Niese showed signs of being a solid fantasy starter in the past, and he’s still relatively young. But many of his peripherals have long been trending the wrong way, and he now projects as the fifth or sixth best starter on his own team.
This is what fangraphs said prior to 2016:
Jon Niese saw a rebound in his ground ball rate in 2015 and yet he oddly gave up a career high 14.3% home run per fly ball rate. It was that kind of year for Niese, who after seeing a velocity decline for four straight years actually had an uptick in his fastball velocity in 2015. Yet, his strikeout rate was a career low 14.7% with a dismal 5.8% swinging strike rate.
They focus on him not being good for fantasy baseball
What about the lineup?
110C282A24410 wrote: The Mets having removed Niese from their starting rotation about mid-way through the 2015 season should also have been a pretty clear red flag for the Pirates scouting department. That should have at least given them second thoughts about trading an asset like Walker for him.
I don't remember him being removed from their rotation. He started 29 games that year. That's pretty much a full season of starts every fifth day. And, he had a 4.13 ERA.
If he did get bumped (and I don't remember that), it was likely less him than it was having a rotation of Colon, Harvey, Syndergaard, DeGrom, and (just called up and dominant) Matz all healthy.
Niese was traded because they had a ton of pitching and he was the least of those 6. The other 5 of which were basically pitching like all stars at the end of that year. That's why they almost won the WS.
Well obviously your memory is a lot better than mine. You're correct. I don't know why I thought I remembered him losing his starting job with the Mets in 2015.
I don't remember him being removed from their rotation. He started 29 games that year. That's pretty much a full season of starts every fifth day. And, he had a 4.13 ERA.
If he did get bumped (and I don't remember that), it was likely less him than it was having a rotation of Colon, Harvey, Syndergaard, DeGrom, and (just called up and dominant) Matz all healthy.
Niese was traded because they had a ton of pitching and he was the least of those 6. The other 5 of which were basically pitching like all stars at the end of that year. That's why they almost won the WS.
Well obviously your memory is a lot better than mine. You're correct. I don't know why I thought I remembered him losing his starting job with the Mets in 2015.