OnlyBucs

Yep, my position hasn't changed.



I stated my opinion about The Plan by the Pirates many times. The Plan that has worked and made them a Playoff team. Here it is again:



"I think the plan is pretty simple. We have seen it before. They will sign/trade for a starter. Then come Super 2 they will bring up a ready Glasnow. The weakest starter will be replaced or an injury will open up a spot. Then they will look at the trade deadline to see who they can get to help even more."



They signed Nova. Step one in the rotation is complete. If they get another quality pitcher, great. If they don't, they are still on track with what I think the plan is going to be with the Rotation.



They need to get some bullpen help (already got Hudson), but I would like another arm. They need a power bat, preferable who can play the outfield, for the bench.



If they don't follow this plan, I will question it. But so far so good, they are on track. This is the same plan that got them in the Playoffs three out of four years. One bad year doesn't make me want to give up on this model. If bad seasons continue, then I would like a change in The Plan.



Why don't you believe in this model that has worked three out of four years?

4479676A656F64466E79686E6F0B0 wrote:



All you have to do is take your link and select the pitchfx tab.  Set dates Aug 5 through end of year and you will see everything after the trade.   Reset dates to opening day to Aug 4 and you'll see pre-trade numbers.



Also career lines are available same way



So now that you have your information, let me know what you think happened


If you look at the swing percentage for those low pitches out of the zone, when he was with the Pirates, he was getting a 40-50% swing rate on low pitches outside of the zone, with the blue jays, he was getting 60-70%. 



He was also throwing more pitches up in the zone with the Blue Jays.  So that might have been a minor adjustment to get more first pitch strikes or something.  But looking at those charts, I found data that supported my original point.  NL hitters weren't chasing his sliders out of the zone, when he moved to the AL, the hitters that hadn't seen him the last three years chased pitches out of the zone.




just want to throw this in. Liriano pitched against Oakland, Seattle, Texas and the Angels while with the Bucs in 2016.



His results were that he went 17.2 innings and gave up 21 earned runs.

Well, like most things, there isn't a simple explanation for why Liriano went from being a tire fire in Pittsburgh, to a competent SP in Toronto.



Or are we saying that the move to Toronto had nothing to do with it? That if NH had just been patient he would have thrown those 50 effective innings in Pittsburgh?

28212938364C0 wrote: Thanks.  In the above:



1) you're set with the roster, short a pen piece and a bench player (two minor additions)

2) you're good with an all RH rotation throwing 81 games a year in PNC.  I.E. Don't see it as questionable talent strategy.



You basically just confirmed what I posted and you responded to.  Really a lot sooner than I expected! Usually it's not this early in the offseason for you to fall in line. 



All set just like last year. Good soldier
Teams with realist hopes of reaching the post season generally have a solid 4 or 5 guys in their rotation. That way if things go bad....and almost every single team has something go wrong or not as expected....you have quality MLB starters at the back of you rotation and not expecting unknowns to step up and keep your playoff hope alive. Put another way...if one of your top three pitchers suffers an injury, regresses or simply doesn't produce as expected....the season doesn't spiral towards a losing year.



I give the Pirates credit for signing Nova. Gives them a reasonable top 3 compared to the 2 they began 2016 (which dogknot loved by the way). But there are still questions about Taillon and Nova not to mention the BOR. Planning on guys like Hutchison, Williams, Baurault and Duncan is the same failed plan as last season.

536E707D72787351796E7F79781C0 wrote: Well, like most things, there isn't a simple explanation for why Liriano went from being a tire fire in Pittsburgh, to a competent SP in Toronto.



Or are we saying that the move to Toronto had nothing to do with it?  That if NH had just been patient he would have thrown those 50 effective innings in Pittsburgh?




that's the thing, we don't know. It can't be as simple as NH said that moving leagues where batters hadn't seen him before would automatically help. It may very well have been more of a mental issue with him, whether he was unhappy, didn't like Searage or Hurdle or what. To me the bottom line was whether the Bucs made a good baseball move in dealing him.



If you take his stats out against the AL teams while a Pirate last year his ERA was around 4.50 which still isn't very good or what was expected from him.

0F322C212E242F0D2532232524400 wrote: Well, like most things, there isn't a simple explanation for why Liriano went from being a tire fire in Pittsburgh, to a competent SP in Toronto.



Or are we saying that the move to Toronto had nothing to do with it?  That if NH had just been patient he would have thrown those 50 effective innings in Pittsburgh?


I think he was done with being here and didn't care. His body language, his lack of coachability and his results here the last few months of the season support that conclusion.

I think the eighteen million was a sunk cost and if McGuire doesn't

become more than than a back up catcher, I'd think this is a shrewd deal by NH.



While I don't think Nova is a Cy Young type, he can be a competent starter and is signed below market value, which like,it or not is a reality the Pirates tread in.

5373607D7C120 wrote: Thanks.  In the above:



1) you're set with the roster, short a pen piece and a bench player (two minor additions)

2) you're good with an all RH rotation throwing 81 games a year in PNC.  I.E. Don't see it as questionable talent strategy.



You basically just confirmed what I posted and you responded to.  Really a lot sooner than I expected! Usually it's not this early in the offseason for you to fall in line. 



All set just like last year. Good soldier
Teams with realist hopes of reaching the post season generally have a solid 4 or 5 guys in their rotation.  That way if things go bad....and almost every single team has something go wrong or not as expected....you have quality MLB starters at the back of you rotation and not expecting unknowns to step up and keep your playoff hope alive. Put another way...if one of your top three pitchers suffers an injury, regresses or simply doesn't produce as expected....the season doesn't spiral towards a losing year.



I give the Pirates credit for signing Nova.  Gives them a reasonable top 3 compared to the 2 they began 2016 (which dogknot loved by the way). But there are still questions about Taillon and Nova not to mention the BOR. Planning on guys like Hutchison, Williams, Baurault and Duncan is the same failed plan as last season. 


I think this last sentence is spot on and shows the Bucs need another pitcher. It is likely somebody is going to get hurt or be ineffective so depth is vital.

1030233E3F510 wrote: Thanks.  In the above:



1) you're set with the roster, short a pen piece and a bench player (two minor additions)

2) you're good with an all RH rotation throwing 81 games a year in PNC.  I.E. Don't see it as questionable talent strategy.



You basically just confirmed what I posted and you responded to.  Really a lot sooner than I expected! Usually it's not this early in the offseason for you to fall in line. 



All set just like last year. Good soldier
Teams with realist hopes of reaching the post season generally have a solid 4 or 5 guys in their rotation.  That way if things go bad....and almost every single team has something go wrong or not as expected....you have quality MLB starters at the back of you rotation and not expecting unknowns to step up and keep your playoff hope alive. Put another way...if one of your top three pitchers suffers an injury, regresses or simply doesn't produce as expected....the season doesn't spiral towards a losing year.



I give the Pirates credit for signing Nova.  Gives them a reasonable top 3 compared to the 2 they began 2016 (which dogknot loved by the way). But there are still questions about Taillon and Nova not to mention the BOR. Planning on guys like Hutchison, Williams, Baurault and Duncan is the same failed plan as last season. 




How many teams go into each season with 0-1 question marks in their rotation? For the Pirates, since 2013 they typically have three guys that they feel really comfortable with. Like in 2014, the year after their first run. They let Burnett walk and started the season with Liriano, Cole, Morton, Volquez and Locke (I think).



Last year, the problem wasn't the strategy, it was the execution. They go in thinking that at least 2 of their top 3 will be effective, and the bottom can be fluid because of either trade deadline acquisitions or call ups. The top three last year was supposed to be Cole, Liriano and Niese. None of them provided. Nicasio and Vogelsong would have looked a lot better holding down the bottom of the rotation until Taillon and Kuhl came up and Nova acquired in a trade. Had there been other starting pitchers not ******** the bed around their turns.

Every team needs depth at starting pitching, but it's not about just having 5 guys who have name recognition or earn a certain amount of money. It's about having guys that you can use that will prevent the other team from scoring.



I'm less worried about the Pirates bringing in guys with resumes that I like, and more worried about them adapting their groundball/defensive position strategies to the new smaller strike zone.

79445A575852597B5344555352360 wrote:



All you have to do is take your link and select the pitchfx tab.  Set dates Aug 5 through end of year and you will see everything after the trade.   Reset dates to opening day to Aug 4 and you'll see pre-trade numbers.



Also career lines are available same way



So now that you have your information, let me know what you think happened


If you look at the swing percentage for those low pitches out of the zone, when he was with the Pirates, he was getting a 40-50% swing rate on low pitches outside of the zone, with the blue jays, he was getting 60-70%. 



He was also throwing more pitches up in the zone with the Blue Jays.  So that might have been a minor adjustment to get more first pitch strikes or something.  But looking at those charts, I found data that supported my original point.  NL hitters weren't chasing his sliders out of the zone, when he moved to the AL, the hitters that hadn't seen him the last three years chased pitches out of the zone.




So are you back to the fangraphs hypothesis now?  He was lights out because he was pitching to AL hitters and they weren't aware not to swing?



Your analysis of that data is just odd and self serving to your 2nd hypothesis. Your first being that it was just his last two starts that were good.



His zone % was much better (throwing more strikes) his o-swing was comparable. Your seeing what you want to see and not what's there.



The likely answer to your riddle of "what happened?" Is regression. His 3 previous seasons serve as a much stronger sample of capabilities than a few months pre-trade. Since his velocity has not fallen off.



Yes. It is highly probable he would have pitched better had we held him.