110C282A24410 wrote: I am curious too. Maybe the people who love the WAR stat can chime in since it is factored in that estimation?
From my own eyes, Harrison is a bad base runner. He runs in wrong situations. People thought he was great because he got out of some run downs that one year, but he should have never been in those situations.
I don't know how many times he took an extra base, but who are you comparing him to? Marte and Polanco are bad base runners too, but their speed makes up for some of their mistakes. Guys like Walker and Alvarez, who are no longer here, were very good base runners. McCutchen is a good base runner. Kang is a good base runner. Mercer is a good base runner. In my opinion, Harrison is the worst. He has made many bad decisions running even if he was called safe.
PP did an article a few months back looking at exactly this issue. Their statistical analysis did not confirm your eye test. The advanced metrics that they used showed Marte, Mercer and Harrison as the top baserunners on the team. They had a major drop last year in base running was largely attributed to Jaso and Freese, but also Kang, Polanco, and even McCutchen had big drop-offs.
I appreciate PMike sharing this bit of info - it confirms that Harrison is much better on the bases then given credit for by some posters. "Score one more run". Actually, I think that sums up Josh's game: get another base any way you can.
Sacrificing an out to advance a runner one base does little to increase the odds of scoring one more run. But taking one more base without sacrificing an out raises the odds of an extra run significantly. Harrison's base running blunders are more than offset by the constant pressure to advance a base. Each advanced base represent a significantly increased opportunity to score.
Harrison vs Frazier
Moderators: SammyKhalifa, Doc, Bobster
Harrison vs Frazier
Since the fangraphs measurements were brought up, UBR is the baserunning without including stolen bases. The "taking the extra base".
jHay is decent but not great by any stretch at that metric.
When you combine UBR, w/SB, and w/GDP you get BsR which is a component of WAR.
According to fangraphs, over a 3 year sample:. jHay is decent but not good at getting extra bases, adds no value with stolen bases, and adds no value in minimizing double plays.
So frankly, statistically speaking if jHay is one of the best 3 baserunners on this team it's a condemnation of this teams baserunning more than it's praise of his baserunning ability. (My thoughts)
I think I'm on safe ground that everybody thinks we stink pretty bad at team baserunning, right? I don't think we've run bases well for many years overall.
jHay is decent but not great by any stretch at that metric.
When you combine UBR, w/SB, and w/GDP you get BsR which is a component of WAR.
According to fangraphs, over a 3 year sample:. jHay is decent but not good at getting extra bases, adds no value with stolen bases, and adds no value in minimizing double plays.
So frankly, statistically speaking if jHay is one of the best 3 baserunners on this team it's a condemnation of this teams baserunning more than it's praise of his baserunning ability. (My thoughts)
I think I'm on safe ground that everybody thinks we stink pretty bad at team baserunning, right? I don't think we've run bases well for many years overall.
Harrison vs Frazier
212820313F450 wrote: Since the fangraphs measurements were brought up, UBR is the baserunning without including stolen bases. The "taking the extra base".
jHay is decent but not great by any stretch at that metric.
When you combine UBR, w/SB, and w/GDP you get BsR which is a component of WAR.
According to fangraphs, over a 3 year sample:. jHay is decent but not good at getting extra bases, adds no value with stolen bases, and adds no value in minimizing double plays.
So frankly, statistically speaking if jHay is one of the best 3 baserunners on this team it's a condemnation of this teams baserunning more than it's praise of his baserunning ability. (My thoughts)
I think I'm on safe ground that everybody thinks we stink pretty bad at team baserunning, right? I don't think we've run bases well for many years overall.
I think you are pretty much right. In these last 5 years of success, they were really bad in 2011. Then middle of the pack in 2012, 2013, & 2015. They were great in 2014 and terrible last year.
You are probably right about Harrison and what that says about the rest of the team. I don't think it's a statement of how good he is. My earlier statement was that he was a top baserunner "last year." That was a year in which the team was terrible with significant backslides from McCutchen and Polanco...two guys you would expect to be good in this department.
jHay is decent but not great by any stretch at that metric.
When you combine UBR, w/SB, and w/GDP you get BsR which is a component of WAR.
According to fangraphs, over a 3 year sample:. jHay is decent but not good at getting extra bases, adds no value with stolen bases, and adds no value in minimizing double plays.
So frankly, statistically speaking if jHay is one of the best 3 baserunners on this team it's a condemnation of this teams baserunning more than it's praise of his baserunning ability. (My thoughts)
I think I'm on safe ground that everybody thinks we stink pretty bad at team baserunning, right? I don't think we've run bases well for many years overall.
I think you are pretty much right. In these last 5 years of success, they were really bad in 2011. Then middle of the pack in 2012, 2013, & 2015. They were great in 2014 and terrible last year.
You are probably right about Harrison and what that says about the rest of the team. I don't think it's a statement of how good he is. My earlier statement was that he was a top baserunner "last year." That was a year in which the team was terrible with significant backslides from McCutchen and Polanco...two guys you would expect to be good in this department.
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rucker59@gmail.com
Harrison vs Frazier
4E5377757B1E0 wrote: Since the fangraphs measurements were brought up, UBR is the baserunning without including stolen bases. The "taking the extra base".
jHay is decent but not great by any stretch at that metric.
When you combine UBR, w/SB, and w/GDP you get BsR which is a component of WAR.
According to fangraphs, over a 3 year sample:. jHay is decent but not good at getting extra bases, adds no value with stolen bases, and adds no value in minimizing double plays.
So frankly, statistically speaking if jHay is one of the best 3 baserunners on this team it's a condemnation of this teams baserunning more than it's praise of his baserunning ability. (My thoughts)
I think I'm on safe ground that everybody thinks we stink pretty bad at team baserunning, right? I don't think we've run bases well for many years overall.
I think you are pretty much right. In these last 5 years of success, they were really bad in 2011. Then middle of the pack in 2012, 2013, & 2015. They were great in 2014 and terrible last year.
You are probably right about Harrison and what that says about the rest of the team. I don't think it's a statement of how good he is. My earlier statement was that he was a top baserunner "last year." That was a year in which the team was terrible with significant backslides from McCutchen and Polanco...two guys you would expect to be good in this department.
Well rats....
I thought I had Dog on this one.
jHay is decent but not great by any stretch at that metric.
When you combine UBR, w/SB, and w/GDP you get BsR which is a component of WAR.
According to fangraphs, over a 3 year sample:. jHay is decent but not good at getting extra bases, adds no value with stolen bases, and adds no value in minimizing double plays.
So frankly, statistically speaking if jHay is one of the best 3 baserunners on this team it's a condemnation of this teams baserunning more than it's praise of his baserunning ability. (My thoughts)
I think I'm on safe ground that everybody thinks we stink pretty bad at team baserunning, right? I don't think we've run bases well for many years overall.
I think you are pretty much right. In these last 5 years of success, they were really bad in 2011. Then middle of the pack in 2012, 2013, & 2015. They were great in 2014 and terrible last year.
You are probably right about Harrison and what that says about the rest of the team. I don't think it's a statement of how good he is. My earlier statement was that he was a top baserunner "last year." That was a year in which the team was terrible with significant backslides from McCutchen and Polanco...two guys you would expect to be good in this department.
Well rats....
I thought I had Dog on this one.
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dogknot17@yahoo.co
Harrison vs Frazier
Harrison is a reason for the team's bad base running too. He isn't helping their average.
I am curious why McCutchen's base running went down? (Why I thought steals were involved)
Harrison is aggressive, but he hesitates in my opinion. Once he is stopped or slowed down, he doesn't have that Marte/Polanco speed to make it up.
A good example was last night in the USA game. Crawford was on first base and a ball hit off the wall in the gap. No Japanese player was close to catching it. You knew when the ball was hit. Crawford got to third. He wasn't even at second base when the ball hit the wall. I know it was wet last night, but a good base runner knows that ball isn't being caught and would have scored. Even if it was caught and he was at second or a little past, he wouldn't have been thrown out. Crawford never looked at his third base coach either.
dmetz, how is UBR calculated? Is it based on when an extra base was taken and shouldn't have been? Or when a player could have got the extra base but didn't? Or a combination? It just seems like an opinion to me. What if I did Harrison's base running stats? Wouldn't my result be different?
I am curious why McCutchen's base running went down? (Why I thought steals were involved)
Harrison is aggressive, but he hesitates in my opinion. Once he is stopped or slowed down, he doesn't have that Marte/Polanco speed to make it up.
A good example was last night in the USA game. Crawford was on first base and a ball hit off the wall in the gap. No Japanese player was close to catching it. You knew when the ball was hit. Crawford got to third. He wasn't even at second base when the ball hit the wall. I know it was wet last night, but a good base runner knows that ball isn't being caught and would have scored. Even if it was caught and he was at second or a little past, he wouldn't have been thrown out. Crawford never looked at his third base coach either.
dmetz, how is UBR calculated? Is it based on when an extra base was taken and shouldn't have been? Or when a player could have got the extra base but didn't? Or a combination? It just seems like an opinion to me. What if I did Harrison's base running stats? Wouldn't my result be different?
Harrison vs Frazier
No idea of the specific calculations that go into UBR. I only referenced it because the Fangraphs rating systems were brought up.
If you're inclined to believe fangraphs, BsR is the top level baserunning measurement and made up of the following:
UBR is the baserunning measured OUTSIDE of stolen bases and grounding into double plays.
W/SB is value added by basestealing or getting caught
W/GDP is value added by avoided or hitting into double plays.
I have no idea of the actual calculations. According to fangraphs, we're a pretty lousy baserunning team. I think that matches my preconceptions.
If you're inclined to believe fangraphs, BsR is the top level baserunning measurement and made up of the following:
UBR is the baserunning measured OUTSIDE of stolen bases and grounding into double plays.
W/SB is value added by basestealing or getting caught
W/GDP is value added by avoided or hitting into double plays.
I have no idea of the actual calculations. According to fangraphs, we're a pretty lousy baserunning team. I think that matches my preconceptions.