OnlyBucs

Like many others posting before me, I thought this was a crappy article. McCutchen was a great player for the Pirates who demonstrated good character in the process. If a no-name blogger is going to take him on, it needs to be done with evidence.



With that said, I think there is evidence. The author simply wasn't good enough or courageous enough to point it out. Much was made of the recent comments by David Freese, but I think most people missed the biggest point. In their zeal to use his comments as a stab at management, nobody really talked about the fact that this guy who wants to win said "it was time" for the team to trade McCutchen (and Cole). Why would a guy who wants to win now and apparently believes attitude has been the biggest impediment to winning the past two seasons think the time was right to trade McCutchen and Cole? The answer has to be that he thinks they were part of the problem and not the solution, right?



I'm not saying that Freese is right or wrong. He was appropriately complimentary of McCutchen in his comments; however, it only takes a minimum of reading between the lines to see how he felt about his leadership on the team.

505951404E340 wrote: I think triples are mostly lucky, not based on hustle.  A weird bounce off some unusual outfield configuration, a ball getting stuck under a pad/corner, or a player falling down/misplaying a ball (should be an error) is how most triples come about.  Sure, you can catch a player sleeping and get that extra base.  That is very risky. 



Harrison, the hustler, only had ten triples the last three seasons.  Yeah, McCutchen had more chances, but still.


  JHay had 10 in 1300 abs, cutch had 8 in 1700 at bats.   Cutch has significantly more power and was faster.. JHay tripled 161% more often despite being slower and having less power.  You're making the statistical case for me.

 

But still...   I'll just add that to the end.  "But still!"



Just look at Cutch's statsheet.  2015 the speed game vanished and he fell off across the board.   Average went down, OBP went down (trying to hit for more power) triples cut in half, defense got extremely sloppy but the dancing and antics tripled (pun intended). 



Maybe the team instructed him to become a 2-tool player to increase his longevity.  I hear that.  It's definitely a possibility.

I don't think the team told him to stand at home and stare at fly balls, but considering that he wasn't particularly good at basestealing anyway, I can see the team telling him to shut off the speed to save health.



 That's a really dumb thing for the Pirates to do, imo, since there was almost no chance he was staying with this org past 31. we should be telling guys to go 110%!   Save nothing!  What do we care if these guys can still play with they're 33-34?  They aren't playing for us






It is not a huge difference in triples between the two players (Harrison and McCutchen).



Why does having more power mean more triples?  I still stick to my theory why most triples happen.  They are rare and rely on a misplay or luck. 



Harrison had only two in 2017 in more plate appearances compared to seven in 2016.  I wouldn't say he hustled less.  He only had one in 2015? 



I don't think the Triple stat is what would hold McCutchen back from the Hall of Fame.  There are only 160 players in the history of the game with 100 or more triples in their career.  Only seven of those players have played past the year 1999.  The ballparks have changed, the players arms have changed, player positioning has changed, the score keepers have changed are the main factors in my opinion.



**Modify**



I just think there is more to getting a triple than simply hustling for it.

050E060A0F0E155056211800090E0E4F020E610 wrote: I think triples are mostly lucky, not based on hustle.  A weird bounce off some unusual outfield configuration, a ball getting stuck under a pad/corner, or a player falling down/misplaying a ball (should be an error) is how most triples come about.  Sure, you can catch a player sleeping and get that extra base.  That is very risky. 



Harrison, the hustler, only had ten triples the last three seasons.  Yeah, McCutchen had more chances, but still.


  JHay had 10 in 1300 abs, cutch had 8 in 1700 at bats.   Cutch has significantly more power and was faster.. JHay tripled 161% more often despite being slower and having less power.  You're making the statistical case for me.

 

But still...   I'll just add that to the end.  "But still!"



Just look at Cutch's statsheet.  2015 the speed game vanished and he fell off across the board.   Average went down, OBP went down (trying to hit for more power) triples cut in half, defense got extremely sloppy but the dancing and antics tripled (pun intended). 



Maybe the team instructed him to become a 2-tool player to increase his longevity.  I hear that.  It's definitely a possibility.

I don't think the team told him to stand at home and stare at fly balls, but considering that he wasn't particularly good at basestealing anyway, I can see the team telling him to shut off the speed to save health.



 That's a really dumb thing for the Pirates to do, imo, since there was almost no chance he was staying with this org past 31. we should be telling guys to go 110%!   Save nothing!  What do we care if these guys can still play with they're 33-34?  They aren't playing for us






It is not a huge difference in triples between the two players (Harrison and McCutchen).



Why does having more power mean more triples?  I still stick to my theory why most triples happen.  They are rare and rely on a misplay or luck. 



Harrison had only two in 2017 in more plate appearances compared to seven in 2016.  I wouldn't say he hustled less.  He only had one in 2015? 



I don't think the Triple stat is what would hold McCutchen back from the Hall of Fame.  There are only 160 players in the history of the game with 100 or more triples in their career.  Only seven of those players have played past the year 1999.  The ballparks have changed, the players arms have changed, player positioning has changed, the score keepers have changed are the main factors in my opinion.



**Modify**



I just think there is more to getting a triple than simply hustling for it. 




I think that occasionally a triple happens by luck, but largely, they are the result of a certain type of hitter and extreme speed/hustle. My primary point of argument for this would be that it is the same guys who lead the league in triples yearly. If they were based on luck, there would be different leaders every year.

7E757D7174756E2B2D5A637B7275753479751A0 wrote: I think triples are mostly lucky, not based on hustle.  A weird bounce off some unusual outfield configuration, a ball getting stuck under a pad/corner, or a player falling down/misplaying a ball (should be an error) is how most triples come about.  Sure, you can catch a player sleeping and get that extra base.  That is very risky. 



Harrison, the hustler, only had ten triples the last three seasons.  Yeah, McCutchen had more chances, but still.


  JHay had 10 in 1300 abs, cutch had 8 in 1700 at bats.   Cutch has significantly more power and was faster.. JHay tripled 161% more often despite being slower and having less power.  You're making the statistical case for me.

 

But still...   I'll just add that to the end.  "But still!"



Just look at Cutch's statsheet.  2015 the speed game vanished and he fell off across the board.   Average went down, OBP went down (trying to hit for more power) triples cut in half, defense got extremely sloppy but the dancing and antics tripled (pun intended). 



Maybe the team instructed him to become a 2-tool player to increase his longevity.  I hear that.  It's definitely a possibility.

I don't think the team told him to stand at home and stare at fly balls, but considering that he wasn't particularly good at basestealing anyway, I can see the team telling him to shut off the speed to save health.



 That's a really dumb thing for the Pirates to do, imo, since there was almost no chance he was staying with this org past 31. we should be telling guys to go 110%!   Save nothing!  What do we care if these guys can still play with they're 33-34?  They aren't playing for us






It is not a huge difference in triples between the two players (Harrison and McCutchen).



Why does having more power mean more triples?  I still stick to my theory why most triples happen.  They are rare and rely on a misplay or luck. 



Harrison had only two in 2017 in more plate appearances compared to seven in 2016.  I wouldn't say he hustled less.  He only had one in 2015? 



I don't think the Triple stat is what would hold McCutchen back from the Hall of Fame.  There are only 160 players in the history of the game with 100 or more triples in their career.  Only seven of those players have played past the year 1999.  The ballparks have changed, the players arms have changed, player positioning has changed, the score keepers have changed are the main factors in my opinion.



**Modify**



I just think there is more to getting a triple than simply hustling for it. 




I never said his triples would keep him from the hall.  You're building a strawman and burning it down.  Conversing with you is beyond frusterating. I surrender.



Tripling is luck. Drafting players is luck. The playoffs is a crapshoot. There's no correlation between ML payroll and wins. I give up

Regarding Cutch's base stealing. From 2009 thru 2013 he had a success rate of approximately 72.7% in 172 attempts. From 2014 thru 2017 he had a 69.7% success rate in 66 attempts. Starting in 2014 Cutch cut back on his attempted steals by more than 50%.



Why would he do this? Well perhaps someone correctly advised him that statistically a successful steal rate of less than 75% is considered to be counterproductive so his base stealing wasn't really helping the team, and increased his chance of an injury which would prevent him from contributing with his bat. Regardless, his effectiveness as a base stealer lessened over the past four years which seems to confirm that it was a good decision on Cutch's (or management's) part to cut down on his base stealing attempts. I find it impossible to correlate this aspect of his game with any sort of prima donna behavior on Cutch's part.

2D242C3D33490 wrote: I think triples are mostly lucky, not based on hustle.  A weird bounce off some unusual outfield configuration, a ball getting stuck under a pad/corner, or a player falling down/misplaying a ball (should be an error) is how most triples come about.  Sure, you can catch a player sleeping and get that extra base.  That is very risky. 



Harrison, the hustler, only had ten triples the last three seasons.  Yeah, McCutchen had more chances, but still.


  JHay had 10 in 1300 abs, cutch had 8 in 1700 at bats.   Cutch has significantly more power and was faster.. JHay tripled 161% more often despite being slower and having less power.  You're making the statistical case for me.

 

But still...   I'll just add that to the end.  "But still!"



Just look at Cutch's statsheet.  2015 the speed game vanished and he fell off across the board.   Average went down, OBP went down (trying to hit for more power) triples cut in half, defense got extremely sloppy but the dancing and antics tripled (pun intended). 



Maybe the team instructed him to become a 2-tool player to increase his longevity.  I hear that.  It's definitely a possibility.

I don't think the team told him to stand at home and stare at fly balls, but considering that he wasn't particularly good at basestealing anyway, I can see the team telling him to shut off the speed to save health.



 That's a really dumb thing for the Pirates to do, imo, since there was almost no chance he was staying with this org past 31. we should be telling guys to go 110%!   Save nothing!  What do we care if these guys can still play with they're 33-34?  They aren't playing for us






It is not a huge difference in triples between the two players (Harrison and McCutchen).



Why does having more power mean more triples?  I still stick to my theory why most triples happen.  They are rare and rely on a misplay or luck. 



Harrison had only two in 2017 in more plate appearances compared to seven in 2016.  I wouldn't say he hustled less.  He only had one in 2015? 



I don't think the Triple stat is what would hold McCutchen back from the Hall of Fame.  There are only 160 players in the history of the game with 100 or more triples in their career.  Only seven of those players have played past the year 1999.  The ballparks have changed, the players arms have changed, player positioning has changed, the score keepers have changed are the main factors in my opinion.



**Modify**



I just think there is more to getting a triple than simply hustling for it. 




I never said his triples would keep him from the hall.  You're building a strawman and burning it down.  Conversing with you is beyond frusterating.  I surrender.



Tripling is luck.  Drafting players is luck.  The playoffs is a crapshoot.  There's no correlation between ML payroll and wins.   I give up








Awesome. I will take the win. I'm glad I had several reasons to back up my stance too. This feels great. I don't even know where to start in thanking people. I am just going to say Thank You to all.

Dmetz, Cutch has more war than Clemente had through his age 31 season...by a good margin. Now, Roberto from 1966- 1972 set the world on fire, and was a greater overall player in his thirties than when he was in his twenties. Cutch right now has about a 25 percent chance at HOF. If he averaged 4 war for next seven seasons, he would have a good shot.

1924292E393F24797A734B0 wrote: Dmetz, Cutch has more war than Clemente had through his age 31 season...by a good margin. Now, Roberto from 1966- 1972 set the world on fire, and was a greater overall player in his thirties than when he was in his twenties. Cutch right now has about a 25 percent chance at HOF. If he averaged 4 war for next seven seasons, he would have a good shot.
Seems like another example of how WAR can be misleading when relied upon as evidence. Cutch hit the ground running at age 22 after 4+ years, 511 games and 1,967 ABs in the minors. Because the Dodgers tried to hide Clemente in the minors due to his rule 5 status, he played 87 games and had 148 ABs before going to the Pirates. As a Rule 5 draftee, the Pirates couldn't sent him to the minors. So despite his enormous talent, Clemente was basically thrown to the wolves with little professional seasoning in a new culture with a different language. His first 4 seasons were very inconsistent and it took him 6 years to hit double-digit HRs or get more than 60 RBIs. That was his breakout season in 1960 at age 25. And he played on a team that simply did not use SBs as a weapon arly in his career. So comparing Cutch's first few years after having a normal minor league experience and playing in his own country to Clemente's early years is a not a good indicator of their respective abilities.

it's not impossible for cutch to get there.   



He (rightly imo) doesn't have a good defensive reputation, so I expect he will get no help if he's on the bubble with the counting stats.



-He will have to play at the same level of the last 3 years until he's 41 to amass 3000 hits. 



- He will have to play at the same level of the last 3 years until he's 43 to hit 500 HRs



There's probably next to no chance he gets the HRs.   It's not impossible he gets the hits.  definitely don't think it's likely.

On the triples front, I would also be curious how many times Harrison got thrown out trying for three. JHay would often try for the extra base in bad scenarios and would either get thrown out or in safely because of a bad throw. There were times, where I thought Cutch would watch his shot where it hurt him but for the most part I would not be too critical of his hustle. I think, like stealing bases, he definitely got more cautious as he aged. A triple can be a selfish stat if someone is really searching to get triples and gets thrown out too much.