Re-thinking Polanco

[Surgnbuck]

597C7F7F6A417C747661130 wrote: This post has drifted off course from original intent.

It was not suggested that the Pirates resign and keep Polanco.

The question posed was that if Polanco was able to keep up this “hot streak” that he has a chance to hit 20 HR with 20 SB. That type of production has value. BC would be in a better position to find a suiter for Polanco and possibly get a lower level high upside prospect which is better than throwing away $3M and getting absolutely nothing in return. Therefore it would make sense to play Polanco in August and see what direction he goes
Sorry for being part of the derailment. The thing is, for them to trade him after the season, they would have to resign him first. They have 5 days after the end of the World Series to make a decision. He will garner plenty of interest, but I think he gets an invite to ST at best kind of thing, similar to what Todd Frazier had. But that's if the Pirates buy him out. No one is taking that on. He's untradeable right now.

[SCBucco]

113C31202736216162530 wrote: The club option is for 12.5 million, not 11 million.



I've pointed out that the Pirates may be looking at it this way, from the lens of accounting games.



His buyout is 3 million. In essence, by keeping him, he's effectively a 9.5 million dollar player, because they save the buyout. His buyout for 2023 is only 1 million.



What does a 10.5 million dollar outfielder, a free agent type, look like?  If the club thinks Polanco can improve his arm, hit .225-.240, and 20 plus HR's, he may be worth keeping to them.



Remember, in the game today, the average batting average is about .235. If Polanco hits in that range, he may well seem worth it to them


The thing about Polanco that worries me as much as his bat is his arm.  You just can't have a good team with a rightfielder giving up extra bases constantly.  If he was even close to average throwing and could hit 250 with 25 homers then he is worth his option for next year.  especially since  at this point he would not be holding back anyone (Oliva?  Swaggerty?)




But even if Polanco could hit .250 with 25 HRs for the next two years, it hurts the team three years from now when they’re supposed to become competitive.  Time would’ve been taken away from whoever would take his place.  The team isn’t going to be very good in 2022-‘23 because there will be young guys learning to play at the big league level.  The team would be better off if one of those guys was in RF.




So, of our prospects, who is ready to start in RF?  We don't have anyone ready next year IMO.  You really aren't taking PT away from anyone, unless I'm missing someone.


Giving playing time to one or more guys, Park primarily, who have the chance of helping in the future is far better than continuing to play a guy who won't be here when the team is competitive again.  Polanco is the past.


Regardless of my feelings about polanco (I’d still like for him to be a productive player), this post is spot on.
I agree. i never thought we'd be having a discussion this year about whether the Pirates should keep him. And this only started after he had a good week and raised his BA from .202 to .211. But that week is not a sign of anything. He had a good week in April. Another one in May. His entire career has been marked by occasional, brief spurts between long slumps. He can barely throw the ball anymore 2 years since his shoulder injury. If the ability to throw hasn't returned by now, it's not going to. He made an incredible leaping catch the other day to rob a HR and save the game. But unfortunately, what stands out about that is how unusual it is to see him be even adequate in the OF.



He's due 12.5 mil next year with a 3 mil buyout and 13.5 mil in 2023 with a 1 mil buyout. We expect to see the team improved in 2022 but the best realistic expectation for a competitive team is 2023. To keep him on the team thru 2023 would cost Ebenezer Nutting 26 million. For a guy who might occasionally have brief spurts of adequacy. And that is not on Nutting's radar. To keep Polanco thru 1 more losing season in 2022 costs 12.5 million and then another million to buy him out in 2023. There doesn't seem to be a logical reason for that expenditure. It's hard to imagine any reason why the Pirates will not cut their losses with Polanco and buy him out for the 3 million. I don't see a good week right now changing that. 


Again, not convinced the savings by kicking Polanco to the curb would be reinvested on talent. People just say plug utility guy in there like Hoy. There is a reason he is a utility guy - jack of all trades, master of none. I prefer getting someone there who takes over on a game by game basis, not utility guy. If utility guy brings a bat to the lineup that must be inserted regardless, then fine. Hoy's very small sample size is something to like.



So, we are expecting 2022 to be better? How? We won't be spending money at all to bring in talent. We lose Frazier, Rodriguez, Anderson. Sure, we can find the next Anderson off the bone pile. Rodriguez as a closer for the Pirates is very replaceable since we can't seem to get to our closer too much. Who is going to put up Frazier like value? Who from the system comes in to help this mess in 2022? Yajure? Does he help? Our rotation as it stands now is Brault, Kuhl, Brubaker, Crowe and ??? Closer Bednar.



Not seeing that much improvement to be honest in 2022. Until our high end prospects start coming up and making impact we won't be as competitive as people think. We shall see.

[2drfischer@gmail.c]

7E6E6F584E4E422D0 wrote: The club option is for 12.5 million, not 11 million.



I've pointed out that the Pirates may be looking at it this way, from the lens of accounting games.



His buyout is 3 million. In essence, by keeping him, he's effectively a 9.5 million dollar player, because they save the buyout. His buyout for 2023 is only 1 million.



What does a 10.5 million dollar outfielder, a free agent type, look like?  If the club thinks Polanco can improve his arm, hit .225-.240, and 20 plus HR's, he may be worth keeping to them.



Remember, in the game today, the average batting average is about .235. If Polanco hits in that range, he may well seem worth it to them


The thing about Polanco that worries me as much as his bat is his arm.  You just can't have a good team with a rightfielder giving up extra bases constantly.  If he was even close to average throwing and could hit 250 with 25 homers then he is worth his option for next year.  especially since  at this point he would not be holding back anyone (Oliva?  Swaggerty?)




But even if Polanco could hit .250 with 25 HRs for the next two years, it hurts the team three years from now when they’re supposed to become competitive.  Time would’ve been taken away from whoever would take his place.  The team isn’t going to be very good in 2022-‘23 because there will be young guys learning to play at the big league level.  The team would be better off if one of those guys was in RF.




So, of our prospects, who is ready to start in RF?  We don't have anyone ready next year IMO.  You really aren't taking PT away from anyone, unless I'm missing someone.


Giving playing time to one or more guys, Park primarily, who have the chance of helping in the future is far better than continuing to play a guy who won't be here when the team is competitive again.  Polanco is the past.


Regardless of my feelings about polanco (I’d still like for him to be a productive player), this post is spot on.
I agree. i never thought we'd be having a discussion this year about whether the Pirates should keep him. And this only started after he had a good week and raised his BA from .202 to .211. But that week is not a sign of anything. He had a good week in April. Another one in May. His entire career has been marked by occasional, brief spurts between long slumps. He can barely throw the ball anymore 2 years since his shoulder injury. If the ability to throw hasn't returned by now, it's not going to. He made an incredible leaping catch the other day to rob a HR and save the game. But unfortunately, what stands out about that is how unusual it is to see him be even adequate in the OF.



He's due 12.5 mil next year with a 3 mil buyout and 13.5 mil in 2023 with a 1 mil buyout. We expect to see the team improved in 2022 but the best realistic expectation for a competitive team is 2023. To keep him on the team thru 2023 would cost Ebenezer Nutting 26 million. For a guy who might occasionally have brief spurts of adequacy. And that is not on Nutting's radar. To keep Polanco thru 1 more losing season in 2022 costs 12.5 million and then another million to buy him out in 2023. There doesn't seem to be a logical reason for that expenditure. It's hard to imagine any reason why the Pirates will not cut their losses with Polanco and buy him out for the 3 million. I don't see a good week right now changing that. 


Again, not convinced the savings by kicking Polanco to the curb would be reinvested on talent.  People just say plug utility guy in there like Hoy.  There is a reason he is a utility guy - jack of all trades, master of none.  [highlight]I prefer getting someone there who takes over on a game by game basis, not utility guy.[/highlight]  If utility guy brings a bat to the lineup that must be inserted regardless, then fine.  Hoy's very small sample size is something to like.



So, we are expecting 2022 to be better?  How?  We won't be spending money at all to bring in talent.  We lose Frazier, Rodriguez, Anderson.  Sure, we can find the next Anderson off the bone pile.  Rodriguez as a closer for the Pirates is very replaceable since we can't seem to get to our closer too much.  Who is going to put up Frazier like value?  Who from the system comes in to help this mess in 2022?  Yajure?  Does he help?  Our rotation as it stands now is Brault, Kuhl, Brubaker, Crowe and ???  Closer Bednar.



Not seeing that much improvement to be honest in 2022.  Until our high end prospects start coming up and making impact we won't be as competitive as people think.  We shall see.


Me, too. But there's no one like that whose ready to move into RF now. So, in the meantime, give a guy like Hoy the opportunity to get ABs and get accustomed to a position that he may not be familiar with, especially if he might be asked to play there in a utility role in the future. Polanco's not going to help the team win any games in 2022 and beyond. He serves no purpose to the organization from this day forward. It's a detriment to have him on the roster.

[Bobster21]

I think the issue is not so much the RF position but the ABs Polanco takes away from others. Park is not necessarily earmarked as a utility player. Nor is Marcano. It may turn out that way or they may settle into a position. Frazier looked like a super utility guy (he played 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF) until he settled in at 2B. Ditto for J-Hay. What Park needs most is ABs. Putting him in RF is a way to give him a lot of ABs. Polanco won't be back, provides little when he plays, and takes ABs away from someone like Park who has a future with the team if he hits well enough. Park can play 2B, SS or OF. If playing him in RF would give him a chance to gets ABs and he does well, they can decide on his position later, as they did with J-Hay and Frazier. But it seems counterproductive to waste ABs on Polanco.

[skinnyhorse]

785558494E5F48080B3A0 wrote: I think the issue is not so much the RF position but the ABs Polanco takes away from others. Park is not necessarily earmarked as a utility player. Nor is Marcano. It may turn out that way or they may settle into a position. Frazier looked like a super utility guy (he played 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF) until he settled in at 2B. Ditto for J-Hay. What Park needs most is ABs. Putting him in RF is a way to give him a lot of ABs. Polanco won't be back, provides little when he plays, and takes ABs away from someone like Park who has a future with the team if he hits well enough. Park can play 2B, SS or OF. If playing him in RF would give him a chance to gets ABs and he does well, they can decide on his position later, as they did with J-Hay and Frazier. But it seems counterproductive to waste ABs on Polanco.
You're right and the same goes for Gamel and Evans. At this point they are taking bats away from future starters/stars. The season is over we need to look at those with a possible future.

[2drfischer@gmail.c]

436E63727564733330010 wrote: I think the issue is not so much the RF position but the ABs Polanco takes away from others. Park is not necessarily earmarked as a utility player. Nor is Marcano. It may turn out that way or they may settle into a position. Frazier looked like a super utility guy (he played 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF) until he settled in at 2B. Ditto for J-Hay. What Park needs most is ABs. Putting him in RF is a way to give him a lot of ABs. Polanco won't be back, provides little when he plays, and takes ABs away from someone like Park who has a future with the team if he hits well enough. Park can play 2B, SS or OF. If playing him in RF would give him a chance to gets ABs and he does well, they can decide on his position later, as they did with J-Hay and Frazier. But it seems counterproductive to waste ABs on Polanco.


Yeppers.

[SammyKhalifa]

372F2D2A2A3D2C2B363721440 wrote: I think the issue is not so much the RF position but the ABs Polanco takes away from others. Park is not necessarily earmarked as a utility player. Nor is Marcano. It may turn out that way or they may settle into a position. Frazier looked like a super utility guy (he played 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF) until he settled in at 2B. Ditto for J-Hay. What Park needs most is ABs. Putting him in RF is a way to give him a lot of ABs. Polanco won't be back, provides little when he plays, and takes ABs away from someone like Park who has a future with the team if he hits well enough. Park can play 2B, SS or OF. If playing him in RF would give him a chance to gets ABs and he does well, they can decide on his position later, as they did with J-Hay and Frazier. But it seems counterproductive to waste ABs on Polanco.
You're right and the same goes for Gamel and Evans.  At this point they are taking bats away from future starters/stars.  The season is over we need to look at those with a possible future.


Honest question, after eliminating Gamel and Evans and Polanco who would you play in the outfield?

[Bobster21]

65575B5B4F7D5E575A5F5057360 wrote: I think the issue is not so much the RF position but the ABs Polanco takes away from others. Park is not necessarily earmarked as a utility player. Nor is Marcano. It may turn out that way or they may settle into a position. Frazier looked like a super utility guy (he played 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF) until he settled in at 2B. Ditto for J-Hay. What Park needs most is ABs. Putting him in RF is a way to give him a lot of ABs. Polanco won't be back, provides little when he plays, and takes ABs away from someone like Park who has a future with the team if he hits well enough. Park can play 2B, SS or OF. If playing him in RF would give him a chance to gets ABs and he does well, they can decide on his position later, as they did with J-Hay and Frazier. But it seems counterproductive to waste ABs on Polanco.
You're right and the same goes for Gamel and Evans.  At this point they are taking bats away from future starters/stars.  The season is over we need to look at those with a possible future.


Honest question, after eliminating Gamel and Evans and Polanco who would you play in the outfield?
I hope they keep Gamel. He's arb eligible next year but shouldn't get a boatload. He plays the game hard and should be a good influence ion younger players. He's not a FA until 2023. Evans is expendable. The more he plays the less useful he looks. I would like to see Alford recalled. He has hit very well at Indy this year. I know they'd have to make a move to clear space on the 40 but there are a lot of players who could be waived and not missed.

[shedman]

Polanco has 11 HR's and 13 SB's with 275 AB's. If he were given 550 AB's, that could mean 22 HR's and 26 SB's. Most teams treasure 20/20 players.

[Bobster21]

2C373A3B323E315F0 wrote: Polanco has 11 HR's and 13 SB's with 275 AB's.  If he were given 550 AB's, that could mean 22 HR's and 26 SB's.  Most teams treasure 20/20 players.
But those 2 numbers can't be looked at in a vacuum as if nothing else matters.



Going back to the last 2 full seasons of 2018 and 2019, there were 10 20/20 guys in MLB in 2018. The lowest BAs for them were .236 and .240. There were 3 in the .270s and .280s and 5 in the .290s and .300s. 



In 2019 there were 9 20/20 guys in MLB. None hit worse than .255. There were 5 in the .270s to .280s and 3 in the .290s or .30s.



What this shows is that 20/20 guys are generally good, consistent hitters in additional to their SBs and HRs.



We can project Polanco as a 20/20 guy with a higher volume of ABs but his H/AB rate stays the same even if projected at a higher volume of ABs. He's hitting .207. And that's been pretty consistent. He's only spent 11 days above .215 and all of those days were in April and May before he amassed a lot of ABs. He has been in 87 games and in over half of them (45) has been at .203 or worse.



He is far worse than the worst 20/20 guys of 2018 (.236) and 2019 (255). So 20/20 from a guy who barely hits .200, can't throw and rarely looks good in the OF is quite different from solid, productive hitters who also hit 20+ HRs with 20+ SBs. Those guys may be "treasured." Not so sure about someone with Polanco's limitations.