What about the lineup?
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2016 1:32 am
6A4A5944452B0 wrote: OK, the "problem" with "the plan" - there is nothing to indicate that the Pirates are ready to make the necessary adjustments to keep the plan working.
What we know: Neal and Frank came in with a very good plan to rebuild the Pirates. It required several more years of losing but no money was wasted, debt was paid down (for best business practices and to prepare for a more expensive future), prospects stockpiled, and careful trades (AJ) or careful FA signing (Russ, Frankie, etc).
Russ, AJ, Frankie, Hanrahan, Jason Grilli, Kang, and the Shark were all homerun deals on players that far exceeded expectations; ie, relatively cheap contracts. Cutch, Marte, Polanco, Cole, Tallion, and Glasnow were all expected to arrive at more or less the same time, also very cheap.
The plan was working beyond anyone's possible expectations; one of the (and maybe THE) best teams in MLB. As anyone should expect, there were a few bumps in the road, specifically injuries to Tallion and Cole. In addition, some of the early contracts came to their end and prices accelerated to the point the Pirates could not resign - AJ and Russ especially. Still, the plan was working incredible.
But a problem with the plan was beginning to appear - the Pirates, from all indications, were determined to continue the "rebuilding plan" rather than shift to a "win the WS plan". Looking at the names above should remind all of us just how much talent was on this team and how very close we were to being in a WS.
The plan needed to shift, ever so slightly IMHO, but critically - they always needed one more (maybe two) more pitchers. When Tallion (and Kingham) were injuried the Pirates needed to pony up to fill their void with WS caliber pitchers. Instead, they were still looking for magic in the bottle.
We know what happened next.
Now, the future is no longer in front us us, it's RIGHT NOW. A lot of contracts are going to start getting expensive (for a Pirates prospective), there are fewer high end prospects in the system, the rest of the league is creating higher cost for reclamation projects. It will not be easy and in fact is unlikely the Pirates will assemble as much talent as they currently have, not for a long time. So the time is NOW.
How does "the plan" take the talent of this team and turn it into a WS team? The "rebuilding plan" does not. But they seem to be still working under that plan, and we can all see to diminishing results.
The Rebuild plan = A+
The WS plan = does not exist.
That's the problem with "the plan".
Here's hoping Neal blows me out of the water this off season; maybe with the White Sox today.....
This might be the best piece of writing I've read on here! I agree with all of this, except for one thing, and it's the part that I bolded. Well, caveat, I agree in principle...disagree in analysis of what actually transpired. In 2015, would one more pitcher, let's say David Price, have won us the WC game, or helped us catch the Cards and avoid it altogether? Probably not, because no one, and I mean no one, out pitched J.A. Happ after the deadline. And, even if we had acquired Price and he started the WC game, unless he had held the Cubs scoreless for nine and we won it in extras, we weren't beating Arrieta that night, no matter who was on the mound.
Last year, I for one thought they needed another pitcher, specifically, a #3 starter. I was fine with our top two (Cole and Liriano), and our bottom two (Niese and Nicasio), but I felt like Niese was miscast as a #3, Nicasio as a #4, and Locke, who I think would make a fine long man/spot starter was inserted in the rotation taking the ball every fifth day. Yes, they needed a real #3 starter. But, even if they had gotten one, it wouldn't have made up for the fact that McCutchen had his worst year, Liriano was awful, Cole struggled, when he took the ball, Kang was hurt when he wasn't getting accused of rape, Stewart and Cervelli missed large chunks of time, Marte only played in 129 games, missing most if not all of the last month or so of the season (when we were still in a pennant race, remember), etc.
My point is this. Yes, they needed a third starter, and when everyone and their mother knew that, we DIDN'T know all of the above would happen. So, that shouldn't have entered into the equation last offseason. I get that. But, it did happen.
According to ESPN.com, Justin Verlander led all of MLB in WAR among pitchers, with 6.6. Let's say his 33 starts had replaced the 33 taken by Locke (19) and Vogelson (14) who combined for a -.2 WAR. That's a 6.8 WAR difference, round it up to 7. We go from being a 78 win team to an 85 win team, and still fall two games short of the Giants.
So, yes, we needed another pitcher last year. Yes, we need another pitcher this year. That's indisputable. What it doesn't account for is all the other junk that happened last year. This year, if Cutch still stinks, Cole only takes the mound 21 times, Cervelli gets hurt, Kang sits in a Korean prison for OWI or who knows what else, no pitcher on earth is going to prevent a repeat of last year.
Side note: 1 player WAR does not equal 1 team win
Right...it's a Win Above Replacement. But, if the formula is accurate, Locke and Vogelsong were essentially replacement level, no?
What we know: Neal and Frank came in with a very good plan to rebuild the Pirates. It required several more years of losing but no money was wasted, debt was paid down (for best business practices and to prepare for a more expensive future), prospects stockpiled, and careful trades (AJ) or careful FA signing (Russ, Frankie, etc).
Russ, AJ, Frankie, Hanrahan, Jason Grilli, Kang, and the Shark were all homerun deals on players that far exceeded expectations; ie, relatively cheap contracts. Cutch, Marte, Polanco, Cole, Tallion, and Glasnow were all expected to arrive at more or less the same time, also very cheap.
The plan was working beyond anyone's possible expectations; one of the (and maybe THE) best teams in MLB. As anyone should expect, there were a few bumps in the road, specifically injuries to Tallion and Cole. In addition, some of the early contracts came to their end and prices accelerated to the point the Pirates could not resign - AJ and Russ especially. Still, the plan was working incredible.
But a problem with the plan was beginning to appear - the Pirates, from all indications, were determined to continue the "rebuilding plan" rather than shift to a "win the WS plan". Looking at the names above should remind all of us just how much talent was on this team and how very close we were to being in a WS.
The plan needed to shift, ever so slightly IMHO, but critically - they always needed one more (maybe two) more pitchers. When Tallion (and Kingham) were injuried the Pirates needed to pony up to fill their void with WS caliber pitchers. Instead, they were still looking for magic in the bottle.
We know what happened next.
Now, the future is no longer in front us us, it's RIGHT NOW. A lot of contracts are going to start getting expensive (for a Pirates prospective), there are fewer high end prospects in the system, the rest of the league is creating higher cost for reclamation projects. It will not be easy and in fact is unlikely the Pirates will assemble as much talent as they currently have, not for a long time. So the time is NOW.
How does "the plan" take the talent of this team and turn it into a WS team? The "rebuilding plan" does not. But they seem to be still working under that plan, and we can all see to diminishing results.
The Rebuild plan = A+
The WS plan = does not exist.
That's the problem with "the plan".
Here's hoping Neal blows me out of the water this off season; maybe with the White Sox today.....
This might be the best piece of writing I've read on here! I agree with all of this, except for one thing, and it's the part that I bolded. Well, caveat, I agree in principle...disagree in analysis of what actually transpired. In 2015, would one more pitcher, let's say David Price, have won us the WC game, or helped us catch the Cards and avoid it altogether? Probably not, because no one, and I mean no one, out pitched J.A. Happ after the deadline. And, even if we had acquired Price and he started the WC game, unless he had held the Cubs scoreless for nine and we won it in extras, we weren't beating Arrieta that night, no matter who was on the mound.
Last year, I for one thought they needed another pitcher, specifically, a #3 starter. I was fine with our top two (Cole and Liriano), and our bottom two (Niese and Nicasio), but I felt like Niese was miscast as a #3, Nicasio as a #4, and Locke, who I think would make a fine long man/spot starter was inserted in the rotation taking the ball every fifth day. Yes, they needed a real #3 starter. But, even if they had gotten one, it wouldn't have made up for the fact that McCutchen had his worst year, Liriano was awful, Cole struggled, when he took the ball, Kang was hurt when he wasn't getting accused of rape, Stewart and Cervelli missed large chunks of time, Marte only played in 129 games, missing most if not all of the last month or so of the season (when we were still in a pennant race, remember), etc.
My point is this. Yes, they needed a third starter, and when everyone and their mother knew that, we DIDN'T know all of the above would happen. So, that shouldn't have entered into the equation last offseason. I get that. But, it did happen.
According to ESPN.com, Justin Verlander led all of MLB in WAR among pitchers, with 6.6. Let's say his 33 starts had replaced the 33 taken by Locke (19) and Vogelson (14) who combined for a -.2 WAR. That's a 6.8 WAR difference, round it up to 7. We go from being a 78 win team to an 85 win team, and still fall two games short of the Giants.
So, yes, we needed another pitcher last year. Yes, we need another pitcher this year. That's indisputable. What it doesn't account for is all the other junk that happened last year. This year, if Cutch still stinks, Cole only takes the mound 21 times, Cervelli gets hurt, Kang sits in a Korean prison for OWI or who knows what else, no pitcher on earth is going to prevent a repeat of last year.
Side note: 1 player WAR does not equal 1 team win
Right...it's a Win Above Replacement. But, if the formula is accurate, Locke and Vogelsong were essentially replacement level, no?
