13212D2D390B28212C292621400 wrote: Three out of four years in the playoffs, but people think that isn't a good plan? Only one team wins it all. You have to get into the Playoffs to even have a shot at that. The Pirates have been doing that.
Let me ask my question again: Why are people against a plan that has worked three out of four years (because of what happened that one year they didn't make the Playoffs)?
They've only made the playoffs 3 out of the last 7 years.
The Cubs have only won the WS once in the last 109 years! Clearly their plan isn't working and they're nothing to actually worry about.
Yes. In the macro-view of more than a century I would say their plan really sucked. ;D
As for them being nothing to actually worry about I revert to my "what have you done lately" argument.
What about the lineup?
Moderators: SammyKhalifa, Doc, Bobster
What about the lineup?
1C213F323D373C1E3621303637530 wrote: The "problem" is that it's harder to stay competitive than it is to become competitive.
I would say that the Pirates results from 1993 through 2012 definitively belie that notion.
I would say that the Pirates results from 1993 through 2012 definitively belie that notion.
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dogknot17@yahoo.co
What about the lineup?
5B7D7C6B7D6D1E0 wrote: I don't see the "rebuilding plan" that VA (and maybe others) are seeing. Most of the team is signed long term. If they were rebuilding, they would be trading away everyone. Just because Melancon, Walker and Liriano were dealt doesn't mean they are rebuilding. Melancon was a good return for the long term, Walker had his back up in place and Liriano was awful. Walker turned out to be a bad trade based on the player they received and his back up wasn't up to par.
Just like before, younger players will be called up and be counted on (Bell, Pitchers). You have to think Bell will be better than the 1B options last year at the plate. He might be young, but he is also the best option right now.
They have been doing the same thing for years now. It has worked. It did not work last year. Last year also had some unexpected bad years from current players and injuries unlike before.
They need another starting pitcher. They said they will get one (at least). There is time. The season is months away. many free agents haven't signed yet across all positions. It is way to early to predict 2017.
did you copy this post from last year and change 2016 to 2017?
No, I did not.
If they are rebuilding, explain to me what I am missing: Who did they trade? What prospects did they get in return? How come McCutchen, Marte, Polanco, Harrison, Cervelli, Kang, Freese, Watson, and Cole are still on the team? Why did they just give Hudson $5 million?
Just like before, younger players will be called up and be counted on (Bell, Pitchers). You have to think Bell will be better than the 1B options last year at the plate. He might be young, but he is also the best option right now.
They have been doing the same thing for years now. It has worked. It did not work last year. Last year also had some unexpected bad years from current players and injuries unlike before.
They need another starting pitcher. They said they will get one (at least). There is time. The season is months away. many free agents haven't signed yet across all positions. It is way to early to predict 2017.
did you copy this post from last year and change 2016 to 2017?
No, I did not.
If they are rebuilding, explain to me what I am missing: Who did they trade? What prospects did they get in return? How come McCutchen, Marte, Polanco, Harrison, Cervelli, Kang, Freese, Watson, and Cole are still on the team? Why did they just give Hudson $5 million?
What about the lineup?
If the Pirates finish '17 with a losing record...will people still argue the plan is working?
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rucker59@gmail.com
What about the lineup?
5F627C717E747F5D7562737574100 wrote: The "problem" is that it's harder to stay competitive than it is to become competitive.
I have to disagree with this.
There was no mystery about what the Pirates needed to do next. It was definitely not harder then digging out of the 20 years of losing, it was simply more expensive. The nonexistent Plan to Win the WS doesn't live in the nice tidy world of the Pirates internal valuation and maintaining "financial flexibility". To PLAN to win the WS you have to identify the player(s) you need NOW and figure a way to get that player (or the next best thing at least); you identify the player you need not an internal valuation price point. the Pirates never did this; it was too costly not too hard.
I have to disagree with this.
There was no mystery about what the Pirates needed to do next. It was definitely not harder then digging out of the 20 years of losing, it was simply more expensive. The nonexistent Plan to Win the WS doesn't live in the nice tidy world of the Pirates internal valuation and maintaining "financial flexibility". To PLAN to win the WS you have to identify the player(s) you need NOW and figure a way to get that player (or the next best thing at least); you identify the player you need not an internal valuation price point. the Pirates never did this; it was too costly not too hard.
-
rucker59@gmail.com
What about the lineup?
6747544948260 wrote: If the Pirates finish '17 with a losing record...will people still argue the plan is working?
I think this is what I find most frustrating: it's like we have this infinite time frame and all we're waiting on is for the luck to fall out way rather than the with the Royals or Indians.
If this team falls on its face this year the magic will be officially gone. But rather than doing all that can be done to make sure this team does NOT fall on its face, we keep talking basically about the actions taken 4, 5, 6, 7 years ago that rebuilt the team. Those years will soon be gone from PNC.
I think this is what I find most frustrating: it's like we have this infinite time frame and all we're waiting on is for the luck to fall out way rather than the with the Royals or Indians.
If this team falls on its face this year the magic will be officially gone. But rather than doing all that can be done to make sure this team does NOT fall on its face, we keep talking basically about the actions taken 4, 5, 6, 7 years ago that rebuilt the team. Those years will soon be gone from PNC.
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Bobster21
What about the lineup?
585F49414F581F136A4D474B4346044945472A0 wrote: The "problem" is that it's harder to stay competitive than it is to become competitive.
I have to disagree with this.
There was no mystery about what the Pirates needed to do next. It was definitely not harder then digging out of the 20 years of losing, it was simply more expensive. The nonexistent Plan to Win the WS doesn't live in the nice tidy world of the Pirates internal valuation and maintaining "financial flexibility". To PLAN to win the WS you have to identify the player(s) you need NOW and figure a way to get that player (or the next best thing at least); you identify the player you need not an internal valuation price point. the Pirates never did this; it was too costly not too hard.
I've been saying this all along. There are 2 phases to transforming this team into a legit WS contender. Phase 1 was accomplished with flying colors. An awful organization was infused with talent and as those players became major leaguers the team became competitive. Phase 2 was to supplement the young, inexpensive, internally developed talent with key acquisitions to fill the few remaining holes. But this seems to be where the org draws the line. They are reluctant to supplement their core with even moderately salaried players despite maintaining one of MLB's lowest payrolls. So holes in the rotation are filled with reclamation projects. Liriano was one of those and when he succeeded, his moderate salary was too much to pay. I didn't mind them moving him when he struggled so badly but surrendering 2 top prospects to shed his salary was embarrassing. And the modest amount of money saved did little more than provide the flexibility to sign Freese and Hudson. The Bucs don't seem to have any interest in even a moderate payroll increase. So for every addition, there must be a corresponding subtraction. This is not how you supplement a team by adding key parts to a strong core. The "Plan" seems to be to do the best they can as long as it doesn't require them to move up from the 5 or 6 lowest payrolls in MLB.
I have to disagree with this.
There was no mystery about what the Pirates needed to do next. It was definitely not harder then digging out of the 20 years of losing, it was simply more expensive. The nonexistent Plan to Win the WS doesn't live in the nice tidy world of the Pirates internal valuation and maintaining "financial flexibility". To PLAN to win the WS you have to identify the player(s) you need NOW and figure a way to get that player (or the next best thing at least); you identify the player you need not an internal valuation price point. the Pirates never did this; it was too costly not too hard.
I've been saying this all along. There are 2 phases to transforming this team into a legit WS contender. Phase 1 was accomplished with flying colors. An awful organization was infused with talent and as those players became major leaguers the team became competitive. Phase 2 was to supplement the young, inexpensive, internally developed talent with key acquisitions to fill the few remaining holes. But this seems to be where the org draws the line. They are reluctant to supplement their core with even moderately salaried players despite maintaining one of MLB's lowest payrolls. So holes in the rotation are filled with reclamation projects. Liriano was one of those and when he succeeded, his moderate salary was too much to pay. I didn't mind them moving him when he struggled so badly but surrendering 2 top prospects to shed his salary was embarrassing. And the modest amount of money saved did little more than provide the flexibility to sign Freese and Hudson. The Bucs don't seem to have any interest in even a moderate payroll increase. So for every addition, there must be a corresponding subtraction. This is not how you supplement a team by adding key parts to a strong core. The "Plan" seems to be to do the best they can as long as it doesn't require them to move up from the 5 or 6 lowest payrolls in MLB.
What about the lineup?
1314020A0413545821060C00080D4F020E0C610 wrote: OK, the "problem" with "the plan" - there is nothing to indicate that the Pirates are ready to make the necessary adjustments to keep the plan working.
What we know: Neal and Frank came in with a very good plan to rebuild the Pirates. It required several more years of losing but no money was wasted, debt was paid down (for best business practices and to prepare for a more expensive future), prospects stockpiled, and careful trades (AJ) or careful FA signing (Russ, Frankie, etc).
Russ, AJ, Frankie, Hanrahan, Jason Grilli, Kang, and the Shark were all homerun deals on players that far exceeded expectations; ie, relatively cheap contracts. Cutch, Marte, Polanco, Cole, Tallion, and Glasnow were all expected to arrive at more or less the same time, also very cheap.
The plan was working beyond anyone's possible expectations; one of the (and maybe THE) best teams in MLB. As anyone should expect, there were a few bumps in the road, specifically injuries to Tallion and Cole. In addition, some of the early contracts came to their end and prices accelerated to the point the Pirates could not resign - AJ and Russ especially. Still, the plan was working incredible.
But a problem with the plan was beginning to appear - the Pirates, from all indications, were determined to continue the "rebuilding plan" rather than shift to a "win the WS plan". Looking at the names above should remind all of us just how much talent was on this team and how very close we were to being in a WS.
The plan needed to shift, ever so slightly IMHO, but critically - they always needed one more (maybe two) more pitchers. When Tallion (and Kingham) were injuried the Pirates needed to pony up to fill their void with WS caliber pitchers. Instead, they were still looking for magic in the bottle.
We know what happened next.
Now, the future is no longer in front us us, it's RIGHT NOW. A lot of contracts are going to start getting expensive (for a Pirates prospective), there are fewer high end prospects in the system, the rest of the league is creating higher cost for reclamation projects. It will not be easy and in fact is unlikely the Pirates will assemble as much talent as they currently have, not for a long time. So the time is NOW.
How does "the plan" take the talent of this team and turn it into a WS team? The "rebuilding plan" does not. But they seem to be still working under that plan, and we can all see to diminishing results.
The Rebuild plan = A+
The WS plan = does not exist.
That's the problem with "the plan".
Here's hoping Neal blows me out of the water this off season; maybe with the White Sox today.....
This might be the best piece of writing I've read on here! I agree with all of this, except for one thing, and it's the part that I bolded. Well, caveat, I agree in principle...disagree in analysis of what actually transpired. In 2015, would one more pitcher, let's say David Price, have won us the WC game, or helped us catch the Cards and avoid it altogether? Probably not, because no one, and I mean no one, out pitched J.A. Happ after the deadline. And, even if we had acquired Price and he started the WC game, unless he had held the Cubs scoreless for nine and we won it in extras, we weren't beating Arrieta that night, no matter who was on the mound.
Last year, I for one thought they needed another pitcher, specifically, a #3 starter. I was fine with our top two (Cole and Liriano), and our bottom two (Niese and Nicasio), but I felt like Niese was miscast as a #3, Nicasio as a #4, and Locke, who I think would make a fine long man/spot starter was inserted in the rotation taking the ball every fifth day. Yes, they needed a real #3 starter. But, even if they had gotten one, it wouldn't have made up for the fact that McCutchen had his worst year, Liriano was awful, Cole struggled, when he took the ball, Kang was hurt when he wasn't getting accused of rape, Stewart and Cervelli missed large chunks of time, Marte only played in 129 games, missing most if not all of the last month or so of the season (when we were still in a pennant race, remember), etc.
My point is this. Yes, they needed a third starter, and when everyone and their mother knew that, we DIDN'T know all of the above would happen. So, that shouldn't have entered into the equation last offseason. I get that. But, it did happen.
According to ESPN.com, Justin Verlander led all of MLB in WAR among pitchers, with 6.6. Let's say his 33 starts had replaced the 33 taken by Locke (19) and Vogelson (14) who combined for a -.2 WAR. That's a 6.8 WAR difference, round it up to 7. We go from being a 78 win team to an 85 win team, and still fall two games short of the Giants.
So, yes, we needed another pitcher last year. Yes, we need another pitcher this year. That's indisputable. What it doesn't account for is all the other junk that happened last year. This year, if Cutch still stinks, Cole only takes the mound 21 times, Cervelli gets hurt, Kang sits in a Korean prison for OWI or who knows what else, no pitcher on earth is going to prevent a repeat of last year.
What we know: Neal and Frank came in with a very good plan to rebuild the Pirates. It required several more years of losing but no money was wasted, debt was paid down (for best business practices and to prepare for a more expensive future), prospects stockpiled, and careful trades (AJ) or careful FA signing (Russ, Frankie, etc).
Russ, AJ, Frankie, Hanrahan, Jason Grilli, Kang, and the Shark were all homerun deals on players that far exceeded expectations; ie, relatively cheap contracts. Cutch, Marte, Polanco, Cole, Tallion, and Glasnow were all expected to arrive at more or less the same time, also very cheap.
The plan was working beyond anyone's possible expectations; one of the (and maybe THE) best teams in MLB. As anyone should expect, there were a few bumps in the road, specifically injuries to Tallion and Cole. In addition, some of the early contracts came to their end and prices accelerated to the point the Pirates could not resign - AJ and Russ especially. Still, the plan was working incredible.
But a problem with the plan was beginning to appear - the Pirates, from all indications, were determined to continue the "rebuilding plan" rather than shift to a "win the WS plan". Looking at the names above should remind all of us just how much talent was on this team and how very close we were to being in a WS.
The plan needed to shift, ever so slightly IMHO, but critically - they always needed one more (maybe two) more pitchers. When Tallion (and Kingham) were injuried the Pirates needed to pony up to fill their void with WS caliber pitchers. Instead, they were still looking for magic in the bottle.
We know what happened next.
Now, the future is no longer in front us us, it's RIGHT NOW. A lot of contracts are going to start getting expensive (for a Pirates prospective), there are fewer high end prospects in the system, the rest of the league is creating higher cost for reclamation projects. It will not be easy and in fact is unlikely the Pirates will assemble as much talent as they currently have, not for a long time. So the time is NOW.
How does "the plan" take the talent of this team and turn it into a WS team? The "rebuilding plan" does not. But they seem to be still working under that plan, and we can all see to diminishing results.
The Rebuild plan = A+
The WS plan = does not exist.
That's the problem with "the plan".
Here's hoping Neal blows me out of the water this off season; maybe with the White Sox today.....
This might be the best piece of writing I've read on here! I agree with all of this, except for one thing, and it's the part that I bolded. Well, caveat, I agree in principle...disagree in analysis of what actually transpired. In 2015, would one more pitcher, let's say David Price, have won us the WC game, or helped us catch the Cards and avoid it altogether? Probably not, because no one, and I mean no one, out pitched J.A. Happ after the deadline. And, even if we had acquired Price and he started the WC game, unless he had held the Cubs scoreless for nine and we won it in extras, we weren't beating Arrieta that night, no matter who was on the mound.
Last year, I for one thought they needed another pitcher, specifically, a #3 starter. I was fine with our top two (Cole and Liriano), and our bottom two (Niese and Nicasio), but I felt like Niese was miscast as a #3, Nicasio as a #4, and Locke, who I think would make a fine long man/spot starter was inserted in the rotation taking the ball every fifth day. Yes, they needed a real #3 starter. But, even if they had gotten one, it wouldn't have made up for the fact that McCutchen had his worst year, Liriano was awful, Cole struggled, when he took the ball, Kang was hurt when he wasn't getting accused of rape, Stewart and Cervelli missed large chunks of time, Marte only played in 129 games, missing most if not all of the last month or so of the season (when we were still in a pennant race, remember), etc.
My point is this. Yes, they needed a third starter, and when everyone and their mother knew that, we DIDN'T know all of the above would happen. So, that shouldn't have entered into the equation last offseason. I get that. But, it did happen.
According to ESPN.com, Justin Verlander led all of MLB in WAR among pitchers, with 6.6. Let's say his 33 starts had replaced the 33 taken by Locke (19) and Vogelson (14) who combined for a -.2 WAR. That's a 6.8 WAR difference, round it up to 7. We go from being a 78 win team to an 85 win team, and still fall two games short of the Giants.
So, yes, we needed another pitcher last year. Yes, we need another pitcher this year. That's indisputable. What it doesn't account for is all the other junk that happened last year. This year, if Cutch still stinks, Cole only takes the mound 21 times, Cervelli gets hurt, Kang sits in a Korean prison for OWI or who knows what else, no pitcher on earth is going to prevent a repeat of last year.
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rucker59@gmail.com
What about the lineup?
644944555243541417260 wrote: The "problem" is that it's harder to stay competitive than it is to become competitive.
I have to disagree with this.
There was no mystery about what the Pirates needed to do next. It was definitely not harder then digging out of the 20 years of losing, it was simply more expensive. The nonexistent Plan to Win the WS doesn't live in the nice tidy world of the Pirates internal valuation and maintaining "financial flexibility". To PLAN to win the WS you have to identify the player(s) you need NOW and figure a way to get that player (or the next best thing at least); you identify the player you need not an internal valuation price point. the Pirates never did this; it was too costly not too hard.
I've been saying this all along. There are 2 phases to transforming this team into a legit WS contender. Phase 1 was accomplished with flying colors. An awful organization was infused with talent and as those players became major leaguers the team became competitive. Phase 2 was to supplement the young, inexpensive, internally developed talent with key acquisitions to fill the few remaining holes. But this seems to be where the org draws the line. They are reluctant to supplement their core with even moderately salaried players despite maintaining one of MLB's lowest payrolls. So holes in the rotation are filled with reclamation projects. Liriano was one of those and when he succeeded, his moderate salary was too much to pay. I didn't mind them moving him when he struggled so badly but surrendering 2 top prospects to shed his salary was embarrassing. And the modest amount of money saved did little more than provide the flexibility to sign Freese and Hudson. The Bucs don't seem to have any interest in even a moderate payroll increase. So for every addition, there must be a corresponding subtraction. This is not how you supplement a team by adding key parts to a strong core. The "Plan" seems to be to do the best they can as long as it doesn't require them to move up from the 5 or 6 lowest payrolls in MLB.
Reports are flying that the Indians are "pulling out all stops" to sign Edwin Encarnacion. This will almost certainly require $20M+ for 3-4 years. The Indians need a DH. An identified need, an identified player, and trying to make it happen. They have a plan to win a WS.
And if Encarnacion is just too expensive I've heard that they will turn to Chris Carter or back to Napoli.
I don't know how any Pirate fan can look at this situation and not see the difference between the excellent work at rebuilding and the total lack of a WS plan.
One last note: the Indians, of all teams, are likely to fill their need through FA. That saves their prospects.
The Pirates will not compete in the FA mkt, and now they won't make trades. Doesn't leave a lot of options.
I have to disagree with this.
There was no mystery about what the Pirates needed to do next. It was definitely not harder then digging out of the 20 years of losing, it was simply more expensive. The nonexistent Plan to Win the WS doesn't live in the nice tidy world of the Pirates internal valuation and maintaining "financial flexibility". To PLAN to win the WS you have to identify the player(s) you need NOW and figure a way to get that player (or the next best thing at least); you identify the player you need not an internal valuation price point. the Pirates never did this; it was too costly not too hard.
I've been saying this all along. There are 2 phases to transforming this team into a legit WS contender. Phase 1 was accomplished with flying colors. An awful organization was infused with talent and as those players became major leaguers the team became competitive. Phase 2 was to supplement the young, inexpensive, internally developed talent with key acquisitions to fill the few remaining holes. But this seems to be where the org draws the line. They are reluctant to supplement their core with even moderately salaried players despite maintaining one of MLB's lowest payrolls. So holes in the rotation are filled with reclamation projects. Liriano was one of those and when he succeeded, his moderate salary was too much to pay. I didn't mind them moving him when he struggled so badly but surrendering 2 top prospects to shed his salary was embarrassing. And the modest amount of money saved did little more than provide the flexibility to sign Freese and Hudson. The Bucs don't seem to have any interest in even a moderate payroll increase. So for every addition, there must be a corresponding subtraction. This is not how you supplement a team by adding key parts to a strong core. The "Plan" seems to be to do the best they can as long as it doesn't require them to move up from the 5 or 6 lowest payrolls in MLB.
Reports are flying that the Indians are "pulling out all stops" to sign Edwin Encarnacion. This will almost certainly require $20M+ for 3-4 years. The Indians need a DH. An identified need, an identified player, and trying to make it happen. They have a plan to win a WS.
And if Encarnacion is just too expensive I've heard that they will turn to Chris Carter or back to Napoli.
I don't know how any Pirate fan can look at this situation and not see the difference between the excellent work at rebuilding and the total lack of a WS plan.
One last note: the Indians, of all teams, are likely to fill their need through FA. That saves their prospects.
The Pirates will not compete in the FA mkt, and now they won't make trades. Doesn't leave a lot of options.
What about the lineup?
1A1211263015323D530 wrote: OK, the "problem" with "the plan" - there is nothing to indicate that the Pirates are ready to make the necessary adjustments to keep the plan working.
What we know: Neal and Frank came in with a very good plan to rebuild the Pirates. It required several more years of losing but no money was wasted, debt was paid down (for best business practices and to prepare for a more expensive future), prospects stockpiled, and careful trades (AJ) or careful FA signing (Russ, Frankie, etc).
Russ, AJ, Frankie, Hanrahan, Jason Grilli, Kang, and the Shark were all homerun deals on players that far exceeded expectations; ie, relatively cheap contracts. Cutch, Marte, Polanco, Cole, Tallion, and Glasnow were all expected to arrive at more or less the same time, also very cheap.
The plan was working beyond anyone's possible expectations; one of the (and maybe THE) best teams in MLB. As anyone should expect, there were a few bumps in the road, specifically injuries to Tallion and Cole. In addition, some of the early contracts came to their end and prices accelerated to the point the Pirates could not resign - AJ and Russ especially. Still, the plan was working incredible.
But a problem with the plan was beginning to appear - the Pirates, from all indications, were determined to continue the "rebuilding plan" rather than shift to a "win the WS plan". Looking at the names above should remind all of us just how much talent was on this team and how very close we were to being in a WS.
The plan needed to shift, ever so slightly IMHO, but critically - they always needed one more (maybe two) more pitchers. When Tallion (and Kingham) were injuried the Pirates needed to pony up to fill their void with WS caliber pitchers. Instead, they were still looking for magic in the bottle.
We know what happened next.
Now, the future is no longer in front us us, it's RIGHT NOW. A lot of contracts are going to start getting expensive (for a Pirates prospective), there are fewer high end prospects in the system, the rest of the league is creating higher cost for reclamation projects. It will not be easy and in fact is unlikely the Pirates will assemble as much talent as they currently have, not for a long time. So the time is NOW.
How does "the plan" take the talent of this team and turn it into a WS team? The "rebuilding plan" does not. But they seem to be still working under that plan, and we can all see to diminishing results.
The Rebuild plan = A+
The WS plan = does not exist.
That's the problem with "the plan".
Here's hoping Neal blows me out of the water this off season; maybe with the White Sox today.....
This might be the best piece of writing I've read on here! I agree with all of this, except for one thing, and it's the part that I bolded. Well, caveat, I agree in principle...disagree in analysis of what actually transpired. In 2015, would one more pitcher, let's say David Price, have won us the WC game, or helped us catch the Cards and avoid it altogether? Probably not, because no one, and I mean no one, out pitched J.A. Happ after the deadline. And, even if we had acquired Price and he started the WC game, unless he had held the Cubs scoreless for nine and we won it in extras, we weren't beating Arrieta that night, no matter who was on the mound.
Last year, I for one thought they needed another pitcher, specifically, a #3 starter. I was fine with our top two (Cole and Liriano), and our bottom two (Niese and Nicasio), but I felt like Niese was miscast as a #3, Nicasio as a #4, and Locke, who I think would make a fine long man/spot starter was inserted in the rotation taking the ball every fifth day. Yes, they needed a real #3 starter. But, even if they had gotten one, it wouldn't have made up for the fact that McCutchen had his worst year, Liriano was awful, Cole struggled, when he took the ball, Kang was hurt when he wasn't getting accused of rape, Stewart and Cervelli missed large chunks of time, Marte only played in 129 games, missing most if not all of the last month or so of the season (when we were still in a pennant race, remember), etc.
My point is this. Yes, they needed a third starter, and when everyone and their mother knew that, we DIDN'T know all of the above would happen. So, that shouldn't have entered into the equation last offseason. I get that. But, it did happen.
According to ESPN.com, Justin Verlander led all of MLB in WAR among pitchers, with 6.6. Let's say his 33 starts had replaced the 33 taken by Locke (19) and Vogelson (14) who combined for a -.2 WAR. That's a 6.8 WAR difference, round it up to 7. We go from being a 78 win team to an 85 win team, and still fall two games short of the Giants.
So, yes, we needed another pitcher last year. Yes, we need another pitcher this year. That's indisputable. What it doesn't account for is all the other junk that happened last year. This year, if Cutch still stinks, Cole only takes the mound 21 times, Cervelli gets hurt, Kang sits in a Korean prison for OWI or who knows what else, no pitcher on earth is going to prevent a repeat of last year.
Side note: 1 player WAR does not equal 1 team win
What we know: Neal and Frank came in with a very good plan to rebuild the Pirates. It required several more years of losing but no money was wasted, debt was paid down (for best business practices and to prepare for a more expensive future), prospects stockpiled, and careful trades (AJ) or careful FA signing (Russ, Frankie, etc).
Russ, AJ, Frankie, Hanrahan, Jason Grilli, Kang, and the Shark were all homerun deals on players that far exceeded expectations; ie, relatively cheap contracts. Cutch, Marte, Polanco, Cole, Tallion, and Glasnow were all expected to arrive at more or less the same time, also very cheap.
The plan was working beyond anyone's possible expectations; one of the (and maybe THE) best teams in MLB. As anyone should expect, there were a few bumps in the road, specifically injuries to Tallion and Cole. In addition, some of the early contracts came to their end and prices accelerated to the point the Pirates could not resign - AJ and Russ especially. Still, the plan was working incredible.
But a problem with the plan was beginning to appear - the Pirates, from all indications, were determined to continue the "rebuilding plan" rather than shift to a "win the WS plan". Looking at the names above should remind all of us just how much talent was on this team and how very close we were to being in a WS.
The plan needed to shift, ever so slightly IMHO, but critically - they always needed one more (maybe two) more pitchers. When Tallion (and Kingham) were injuried the Pirates needed to pony up to fill their void with WS caliber pitchers. Instead, they were still looking for magic in the bottle.
We know what happened next.
Now, the future is no longer in front us us, it's RIGHT NOW. A lot of contracts are going to start getting expensive (for a Pirates prospective), there are fewer high end prospects in the system, the rest of the league is creating higher cost for reclamation projects. It will not be easy and in fact is unlikely the Pirates will assemble as much talent as they currently have, not for a long time. So the time is NOW.
How does "the plan" take the talent of this team and turn it into a WS team? The "rebuilding plan" does not. But they seem to be still working under that plan, and we can all see to diminishing results.
The Rebuild plan = A+
The WS plan = does not exist.
That's the problem with "the plan".
Here's hoping Neal blows me out of the water this off season; maybe with the White Sox today.....
This might be the best piece of writing I've read on here! I agree with all of this, except for one thing, and it's the part that I bolded. Well, caveat, I agree in principle...disagree in analysis of what actually transpired. In 2015, would one more pitcher, let's say David Price, have won us the WC game, or helped us catch the Cards and avoid it altogether? Probably not, because no one, and I mean no one, out pitched J.A. Happ after the deadline. And, even if we had acquired Price and he started the WC game, unless he had held the Cubs scoreless for nine and we won it in extras, we weren't beating Arrieta that night, no matter who was on the mound.
Last year, I for one thought they needed another pitcher, specifically, a #3 starter. I was fine with our top two (Cole and Liriano), and our bottom two (Niese and Nicasio), but I felt like Niese was miscast as a #3, Nicasio as a #4, and Locke, who I think would make a fine long man/spot starter was inserted in the rotation taking the ball every fifth day. Yes, they needed a real #3 starter. But, even if they had gotten one, it wouldn't have made up for the fact that McCutchen had his worst year, Liriano was awful, Cole struggled, when he took the ball, Kang was hurt when he wasn't getting accused of rape, Stewart and Cervelli missed large chunks of time, Marte only played in 129 games, missing most if not all of the last month or so of the season (when we were still in a pennant race, remember), etc.
My point is this. Yes, they needed a third starter, and when everyone and their mother knew that, we DIDN'T know all of the above would happen. So, that shouldn't have entered into the equation last offseason. I get that. But, it did happen.
According to ESPN.com, Justin Verlander led all of MLB in WAR among pitchers, with 6.6. Let's say his 33 starts had replaced the 33 taken by Locke (19) and Vogelson (14) who combined for a -.2 WAR. That's a 6.8 WAR difference, round it up to 7. We go from being a 78 win team to an 85 win team, and still fall two games short of the Giants.
So, yes, we needed another pitcher last year. Yes, we need another pitcher this year. That's indisputable. What it doesn't account for is all the other junk that happened last year. This year, if Cutch still stinks, Cole only takes the mound 21 times, Cervelli gets hurt, Kang sits in a Korean prison for OWI or who knows what else, no pitcher on earth is going to prevent a repeat of last year.
Side note: 1 player WAR does not equal 1 team win