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Adam Frazier

Posted: Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:38 pm
by 2drfischer@gmail.c
6740494940535040675046250 wrote: I predict Polanco will hit 25 HR's and bat .260 next year and Cherington will salary dump him and replace him with a LMG and then blubber about how great the LMG will be in the future.  Meantime BOB will pocket the cash.  CHA-CHING!


This is not an unlikely scenario. He was on a 25 HR pace this year, and he does not even have to get his timing completely back to end up hitting .220. Not at all out of line to think he will have a season like Nick Castellanos, Yoan Moncada, Ramon Laureano, Luis Robert, or Adam Duvall (Plus some others).  Nothing wrong with that.




Hitting .220 is now the bar for him? Wow.

Adam Frazier

Posted: Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:13 pm
by SCBucco
130805040D010E600 wrote: I predict Polanco will hit 25 HR's and bat .260 next year and Cherington will salary dump him and replace him with a LMG and then blubber about how great the LMG will be in the future.  Meantime BOB will pocket the cash.  CHA-CHING!


I predict that I will be the next President of The Maldives in the next election.

Adam Frazier

Posted: Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:35 pm
by Bobster21
4050516670707C130 wrote: I predict Polanco will hit 25 HR's and bat .260 next year and Cherington will salary dump him and replace him with a LMG and then blubber about how great the LMG will be in the future.  Meantime BOB will pocket the cash.  CHA-CHING!


I predict that I will be the next President of The Maldives in the next election.
You've got my vote! :)

Adam Frazier

Posted: Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:48 pm
by shedman
61464F4F46555646615640230 wrote: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/gregory-pol ... fferently/



Polanco was missing meatballs down the middle.  He had very obvious swing issues and did not look comfortable. Trading or releasing him because he costs too much would be unwise. [highlight]He is exactly the player the Pirates should be trading FOR, not trading away.[/highlight]


So you want the Pirates to continue winning less than a third of their games?




They are going to lose most of their games next year no matter who the RF is.




Exactly.  So why continue down that path of losing with a guy who won't reach the potential projected and won't be here after this next season?  Better to find someone else as soon as possible who can become better than Polanco and will be here for 4-5 years.




Currently, that player does not exist.  Having Polanco on the roster does not prevent them from finding that player.  Releasing Polanco just because your opinion on him would be silly. The Pirates are smarter than that. You dont pay a player $11M to go away and let some other team benefit.




Of course that player exists.  There are probably plenty of them.  It's just a matter of Cherington and his staff being able to find that guy.



Having Polanco on the roster makes it more difficult to sit him on the bench because the temptation will persist to play him, which is a waste of time.  Out of sight, out of mind.



It doesn't matter what Polanco is getting paid.  He's due the money whether he plays or not, whether he's released or not.  Why would the Pirates continue to play him for the next year when he's below average in nearly every way when he could be replaced by a guy who could be better and be playing for the next five? 



Polanco wouldn't be the first player, or the first Pirate, who was "paid to go away".






Big difference paying Archer 500K to go away than the price tag on Polanco at this stage.


Huge difference.  And they also have players to take over for Archer. 



The idea of paying someone to go away with zero replacement is backwards.


_______

Exactly, instead of salary dumping Polanco and then looking for a replacement, how about we get a replacement first and then salary dump Polanco.

Adam Frazier

Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:50 am
by 2drfischer@gmail.c
362D202128242B450 wrote: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/gregory-pol ... fferently/



Polanco was missing meatballs down the middle.  He had very obvious swing issues and did not look comfortable. Trading or releasing him because he costs too much would be unwise. [highlight]He is exactly the player the Pirates should be trading FOR, not trading away.[/highlight]


So you want the Pirates to continue winning less than a third of their games?




They are going to lose most of their games next year no matter who the RF is.




Exactly.  So why continue down that path of losing with a guy who won't reach the potential projected and won't be here after this next season?  Better to find someone else as soon as possible who can become better than Polanco and will be here for 4-5 years.




Currently, that player does not exist.  Having Polanco on the roster does not prevent them from finding that player.  Releasing Polanco just because your opinion on him would be silly. The Pirates are smarter than that. You dont pay a player $11M to go away and let some other team benefit.




Of course that player exists.  There are probably plenty of them.  It's just a matter of Cherington and his staff being able to find that guy.



Having Polanco on the roster makes it more difficult to sit him on the bench because the temptation will persist to play him, which is a waste of time.  Out of sight, out of mind.



It doesn't matter what Polanco is getting paid.  He's due the money whether he plays or not, whether he's released or not.  Why would the Pirates continue to play him for the next year when he's below average in nearly every way when he could be replaced by a guy who could be better and be playing for the next five? 



Polanco wouldn't be the first player, or the first Pirate, who was "paid to go away".






Big difference paying Archer 500K to go away than the price tag on Polanco at this stage.


Huge difference.  And they also have players to take over for Archer. 



The idea of paying someone to go away with zero replacement is backwards.


_______

Exactly, instead of salary dumping Polanco and then looking for a replacement, how about we get a replacement first and then salary dump Polanco.




So now you're in favor of salary dumping players? I wish you'd make up your mind.

Adam Frazier

Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 2:06 pm
by BellevueBuc
005640545B41515A574072555F535B5E1C51320 wrote: I predict Polanco will hit 25 HR's and bat .260 next year and Cherington will salary dump him and replace him with a LMG and then blubber about how great the LMG will be in the future.  Meantime BOB will pocket the cash.  CHA-CHING!


This is not an unlikely scenario. He was on a 25 HR pace this year, and he does not even have to get his timing completely back to end up hitting .220. Not at all out of line to think he will have a season like Nick Castellanos, Yoan Moncada, Ramon Laureano, Luis Robert, or Adam Duvall (Plus some others).  Nothing wrong with that.




Hitting .220 is now the bar for him?  Wow.




All of those players were good last year. I doubt anyone in baseball sets a bar with batting average, but that was the stat shedman brought up. Polanco walks enough and has plenty of power to make a .220 batting average perfectly fine.

Adam Frazier

Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 2:09 pm
by BellevueBuc
366076626D77676C6176446369656D682A67040 wrote: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/gregory-pol ... fferently/



Polanco was missing meatballs down the middle.  He had very obvious swing issues and did not look comfortable. Trading or releasing him because he costs too much would be unwise. [highlight]He is exactly the player the Pirates should be trading FOR, not trading away.[/highlight]


So you want the Pirates to continue winning less than a third of their games?




They are going to lose most of their games next year no matter who the RF is.




Exactly.  So why continue down that path of losing with a guy who won't reach the potential projected and won't be here after this next season?  Better to find someone else as soon as possible who can become better than Polanco and will be here for 4-5 years.




Currently, that player does not exist.  Having Polanco on the roster does not prevent them from finding that player.  Releasing Polanco just because your opinion on him would be silly. The Pirates are smarter than that. You dont pay a player $11M to go away and let some other team benefit.




Of course that player exists.  There are probably plenty of them.  It's just a matter of Cherington and his staff being able to find that guy.



Having Polanco on the roster makes it more difficult to sit him on the bench because the temptation will persist to play him, which is a waste of time.  Out of sight, out of mind.



It doesn't matter what Polanco is getting paid.  He's due the money whether he plays or not, whether he's released or not.  Why would the Pirates continue to play him for the next year when he's below average in nearly every way when he could be replaced by a guy who could be better and be playing for the next five? 



Polanco wouldn't be the first player, or the first Pirate, who was "paid to go away".






That player does not exist or you would have named him.



Polanco's salary is very relevant. They pay him no matter what. They lose nothing keeping him into next year.  They most certainly lose something by releasing him today, with zero better options.


Polanco's salary isn't relevant for the very reason you mentioned:  they have to pay him regardless.  It should matter not at all when making a decision as to what to do with him.  The only thing that matters is playing the best man in RF.



I don't work in baseball.  It's not my job to find baseball talent, so naming a replacement is out of my realm.  But one thing I'm certain of is that there are many young players, several we've never even heard of, who will be replacing current major league players, beginning as soon as next season.  It happens every year.



I've yet to see what the Pirates would lose if Polanco were released today.  Would it be his handful of HRs?  His below average batting average?  His multiple strikeouts per game?  His frightful outfield play?  His head-scratching base running?  It's genuinely hard to find any positives with him.




For it not being your job, you are very adamant that they get rid of him. Is it your job to evaluate him? Hopefully not, since you seem to be scouting him like it is 1985.



You dont get rid of a player you are paying without a replacement. It wont happen.

Adam Frazier

Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 3:25 pm
by BellevueBuc
Of course, since Polanco has had injury/illness issues recently, the Pirates have used other guys in the OF the last two years. How have they done?



Adam Frazier (2020): 196/302/261, 53 PA

Kevin Newman (2019): 333/500/333, 4 PA

Cole Tucker (2020): 215/241/262, 112 PA

Pablo Reyes (2019): 184/236/291, 110 PA

Erik Gonzalez (2019): 294/333/471, 18 PA

Kevin Kramer (2019): 171/225/200, 40 PA

Jake Elmore (2019): 308/357/346, 28 PA

Corban Joseph (2019): 000/000/000, 3 PA

J.T. Riddle (2020): 100/100/150, 20 PA



Those guys managed out to a 40ish OPS+ in over 500 PAs and a 203/253/272 slash line. And that is just the infielders they have used in the OF. We can add Dyson, Heredia, Shuck, Martin and it is not looking much better.



This team is considering using Brault in the OF. There is a better chance that Polanco hits like he did in 2018 than the Pirates adding a competent OF for 2021.

Adam Frazier

Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 11:00 pm
by SCBucco
684F46464F5C5F4F685F492A0 wrote: Of course, since Polanco has had injury/illness issues recently, the Pirates have used other guys in the OF the last two years.  How have they done?



Adam Frazier (2020):  196/302/261, 53 PA

Kevin Newman (2019):  333/500/333, 4 PA

Cole Tucker (2020):  215/241/262, 112 PA

Pablo Reyes (2019):  184/236/291, 110 PA

Erik Gonzalez (2019):  294/333/471, 18 PA

Kevin Kramer (2019):  171/225/200, 40 PA

Jake Elmore (2019):  308/357/346, 28 PA

Corban Joseph (2019):  000/000/000, 3 PA

J.T. Riddle (2020):  100/100/150, 20 PA



Those guys managed out to a 40ish OPS+ in over 500 PAs and a 203/253/272 slash line. And that is just the infielders they have used in the OF.  We can add Dyson, Heredia, Shuck, Martin and it is not looking much better.



This team is considering using Brault in the OF. There is a better chance that Polanco hits like he did in 2018 than the Pirates adding a competent OF for 2021.


So, we should bring back Elmore?

Adam Frazier

Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 11:57 pm
by 2drfischer@gmail.c
795E57575E4D4E5E794E583B0 wrote: I predict Polanco will hit 25 HR's and bat .260 next year and Cherington will salary dump him and replace him with a LMG and then blubber about how great the LMG will be in the future.  Meantime BOB will pocket the cash.  CHA-CHING!


This is not an unlikely scenario. He was on a 25 HR pace this year, and he does not even have to get his timing completely back to end up hitting .220. Not at all out of line to think he will have a season like Nick Castellanos, Yoan Moncada, Ramon Laureano, Luis Robert, or Adam Duvall (Plus some others).  Nothing wrong with that.




Hitting .220 is now the bar for him?  Wow.




All of those players were good last year.  I doubt anyone in baseball sets a bar with batting average, but that was the stat shedman brought up. Polanco walks enough and has plenty of power to make a .220 batting average perfectly fine.




I'll never agree that a .220 batting average is "perfectly fine", especially when it comes from a guy you consider to be an important power source and run producer. I don't care how many times he walks. When he's walking, he's not hitting a HR or driving in runs.