McCutchen's drop off

BenM · Post by **BenM** » Thu May 11, 2017 6:15 pm

I agree (hope) that there is going to be some regression to the mean. But at this point, I wonder what that is.

He currently has an OBS of .691. Does he get to .750? .800? That would still put him about a hundred points lower than his four year stretch where he was in the top five in MVP voting. And that was only a season plus ago.

I really hoped that "nagging injuries" was the reason for his decline last year, but now I'm not so sure.

Osushawn · Post by **Osushawn** » Thu May 11, 2017 6:43 pm

only correlation I can make to his decline is it started when he got married. Figures:-)

dogknot17@yahoo.co · Post by **dogknot17@yahoo.co** » Thu May 11, 2017 6:48 pm

6B5751574C45534A240 wrote: only correlation I can make to his decline is it started when he got married. Figures:-)

He had a good 2015. Or was that still the honeymoon stage?

SammyKhalifa · Post by **SammyKhalifa** » Thu May 11, 2017 6:55 pm

I connect it to the moment he cut off his dreds.

BenM · Post by **BenM** » Thu May 11, 2017 7:23 pm

0F3D31312517343D30353A3D5C0 wrote: I connect it to the moment he cut off his dreds.

I think you nailed it.

dogknot17@yahoo.co · Post by **dogknot17@yahoo.co** » Thu May 11, 2017 7:29 pm

0522290A470 wrote: I connect it to the moment he cut off his dreds.

I think you nailed it.

I thought that too, but he cut them in May of 2015. (He was married in November of 2014).

I don't know. But I am in favor of his dreads coming back and his wife leaving him (ha ha) if it changes his game on the field.

steve49 · Post by **steve49** » Thu May 11, 2017 7:38 pm

5F5E4554420205310 wrote: If you go to the site and find his name and click on it, you can see more data. It shows each and every batted ball date. Exit velocity, launch angle, etc. His BABIP is now at .226. Like I stated before, I think Cutch has been extremely unlucky. His overall exit velocity is down somewhat from 2015 but with that said it's not that bad. He has a max EV of 109.5 which is pretty good. I think some of these hard hit balls are going to start finding holes. Averages tell us they should!

Hopefully you're right and my eyes are wrong.

notes34 · Post by **notes34** » Mon May 15, 2017 4:42 pm

Here are some of Cutch's recent exit velocities. He is hitting the ball hard. There are a lot of 95+ velocities on this short list.

Hopefully things start to even out. His average EV has increased while his BA has decreased. That is a sign of bad luck. His BABIP is hovering around .220!

2017-05-14 Robbie Ray Andrew McCutchen 106.3 29.0 420 home_run

2017-05-14 Fernando Rodney Andrew McCutchen 88.1 -26.2 6 field_out

2017-05-13 Randall Delgado Andrew McCutchen 74.7 9.3 110 force_out

2017-05-13 Taijuan Walker Andrew McCutchen 102.4 -16.0 9 fielders_choice_out

2017-05-13 Taijuan Walker Andrew McCutchen 108.6 14.9 282 double

2017-05-13 Taijuan Walker Andrew McCutchen 102.4 -4.8 26 field_out

2017-05-12 Patrick Corbin Andrew McCutchen 96.3 9.7 205 single

2017-05-12 Patrick Corbin Andrew McCutchen 36.7 -27.5 5 field_out

2017-05-12 Patrick Corbin Andrew McCutchen 95.4 34.9 354 field_out

2017-05-11 Zack Greinke Andrew McCutchen 97.9 29.2 393 field_out

2017-05-11 Zack Greinke Andrew McCutchen 100.6 13.7 290

Bobster21 · Post by **Bobster21** » Mon May 15, 2017 4:53 pm

Just a thought but couldn't it also have to do with his pitch selection? If he hits a strike over the plate at 100 mph EV, chances of it being a line drive are better than if he lets that pitch go by and hits a borderline pitch at the same EV, which might end up as a hard grounder to SS. Is that reasonable?

notes34 · Post by **notes34** » Mon May 15, 2017 5:01 pm

557875646372652526170 wrote: Just a thought but couldn't it also have to do with his pitch selection? If he hits a strike over the plate at 100 mph EV, chances of it being a line drive are better than if he lets that pitch go by and hits a borderline pitch at the same EV, which might end up as a hard grounder to SS. Is that reasonable?
I suppose but the chances of hitting a borderline or a pitch out of the zone at the same EV aren't very good. He is swinging at 68% of pitches in the zone and only 22.2 out of the zone according to fangraphs. Everything is pointing to him being extremely unlikely.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... F#advanced