557372657363100 wrote: Offer Keller the Musgrove deal , a deal the Pirates should of gave Musgrove .
Musgrove’s contract is for five years and $100 million. At his age and with two arb years remaining, Keller would be a fool to accept a five year deal. I would think eight or nine years would be his minimum. And, of course, the money would have to exceed $100 million.
If he continues to pitch at this elite level, he’s going to have considerable leverage. We know there are a dozen teams or more that will blow the doors off of the Pirates best offer.
Unfortunately you are correct.
I wonder if there is any contract he will sign with Bucs? If he is great for the rest of his time with the Bucs. Max Scherzer is making over $40 million a year, Gerrit Cole has 9 year $324 million contract. I can't see the Bucs reaching a deal with Keller is that is over $20 million a year (and they probably shouldn't do that at this point but if he pitches great all season he is going to come close to that).
The Pirates will be up against it when it comes time to sign him. If he continues to be superb, Nutting won’t match what the big market teams will be willing to pay. The Pirates have the advantage for these next couple of years because they don’t have to compete against those teams, as they own his rights. But they’d have to do one heck of a selling job to convince him to stay.
I’d sure like for them to succeed. He’s turned his career completely around and is showing what it means to have a stud. Teams can’t win without a starter with the talent he’s showing. It would be a big loss, just like when guys like Morton, Cole, Wakefield, and Happ left here for one reason or another. The Pirates would be a better team with Keller.
The Future . . .
Moderators: SammyKhalifa, Doc, Bobster
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fjk090852-7
- Posts: 3488
- Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 2:52 pm
The Future . . .
6E50555D4E56565D7D584F5C0B390 wrote: Offer Keller the Musgrove deal , a deal the Pirates should of gave Musgrove .
Musgrove’s contract is for five years and $100 million. At his age and with two arb years remaining, Keller would be a fool to accept a five year deal. I would think eight or nine years would be his minimum. And, of course, the money would have to exceed $100 million.
If he continues to pitch at this elite level, he’s going to have considerable leverage. We know there are a dozen teams or more that will blow the doors off of the Pirates best offer.
Unfortunately you are correct.
I think that the Pirates will not exceed 5 years with any contract agreement with Keller. Signing a pitcher for a very long period is risky due to possible injury. It is crazy as to how many pitchers need TJ surgery this day and age.
Musgrove’s contract is for five years and $100 million. At his age and with two arb years remaining, Keller would be a fool to accept a five year deal. I would think eight or nine years would be his minimum. And, of course, the money would have to exceed $100 million.
If he continues to pitch at this elite level, he’s going to have considerable leverage. We know there are a dozen teams or more that will blow the doors off of the Pirates best offer.
Unfortunately you are correct.
I think that the Pirates will not exceed 5 years with any contract agreement with Keller. Signing a pitcher for a very long period is risky due to possible injury. It is crazy as to how many pitchers need TJ surgery this day and age.
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2drfischer@gmail.c
The Future . . .
6B67663D343D35383F203A0D0 wrote: Offer Keller the Musgrove deal , a deal the Pirates should of gave Musgrove .
Musgrove’s contract is for five years and $100 million. At his age and with two arb years remaining, Keller would be a fool to accept a five year deal. I would think eight or nine years would be his minimum. And, of course, the money would have to exceed $100 million.
If he continues to pitch at this elite level, he’s going to have considerable leverage. We know there are a dozen teams or more that will blow the doors off of the Pirates best offer.
Unfortunately you are correct.
I think that the Pirates will not exceed 5 years with any contract agreement with Keller. Signing a pitcher for a very long period is risky due to possible injury. It is crazy as to how many pitchers need TJ surgery this day and age.
You’re likely right about the five years. But other teams will set the market for Keller by offering more years. Nutting’s never been willing to participate in the individual player markets for top free agents so there’s no reason to think he’ll participate in the Keller market.
Musgrove’s contract is for five years and $100 million. At his age and with two arb years remaining, Keller would be a fool to accept a five year deal. I would think eight or nine years would be his minimum. And, of course, the money would have to exceed $100 million.
If he continues to pitch at this elite level, he’s going to have considerable leverage. We know there are a dozen teams or more that will blow the doors off of the Pirates best offer.
Unfortunately you are correct.
I think that the Pirates will not exceed 5 years with any contract agreement with Keller. Signing a pitcher for a very long period is risky due to possible injury. It is crazy as to how many pitchers need TJ surgery this day and age.
You’re likely right about the five years. But other teams will set the market for Keller by offering more years. Nutting’s never been willing to participate in the individual player markets for top free agents so there’s no reason to think he’ll participate in the Keller market.
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Bobster21
The Future . . .
Free agency is a killer for the Pirates especially for pitching. Even the best pitchers usually take several years to reach their potential. But free agency kicks in after 6 service years and pitchers unlikely to sign an extension are traded with enough years of control left to improve the trade return. Gerrit Cole had only 1 outstanding year as a Pirate before he weas traded with 2 years of control left. Then he reached the potential they always knew he had.
This is Keller's 3rd full season altho he received credit for a service year in 2020. He's just now reaching his potential but has only 2 more years of control left before free agency. So if they don't expect him to sign, he won't even be with them 2 more years. This is the problem they face whenever drafting a pitcher. The Pirates go thru the growing pains for a few years and by the time the pitcher finally appears to be putting it all together, it's almost time to trade him.
This is Keller's 3rd full season altho he received credit for a service year in 2020. He's just now reaching his potential but has only 2 more years of control left before free agency. So if they don't expect him to sign, he won't even be with them 2 more years. This is the problem they face whenever drafting a pitcher. The Pirates go thru the growing pains for a few years and by the time the pitcher finally appears to be putting it all together, it's almost time to trade him.
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GreenWeenie
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The Future . . .
Tying a player up makes good sense- if you can afford to be wrong.
Clearly, a situation at third base that, I hope that I'm wrong, but I don't think will correct on its own. Few clubs can thrive with a glove-only option at the position, and with little power.
It really doesn't matter where a guy's moved if he can't hit MLB pitching, but I think that I've read where they thought of 2b and SS, but that didn't go.
If the season was a wash, I'd say let it play out as is. But, the team has some chance at PS play at the moment. Do they just stand pat and let May become the rest of the year? The issue would be there next season, anyway.
Any suggestions on how The Collaborative Brain Trust should handle? Would moving Cruz to third make sense?
Clearly, a situation at third base that, I hope that I'm wrong, but I don't think will correct on its own. Few clubs can thrive with a glove-only option at the position, and with little power.
It really doesn't matter where a guy's moved if he can't hit MLB pitching, but I think that I've read where they thought of 2b and SS, but that didn't go.
If the season was a wash, I'd say let it play out as is. But, the team has some chance at PS play at the moment. Do they just stand pat and let May become the rest of the year? The issue would be there next season, anyway.
Any suggestions on how The Collaborative Brain Trust should handle? Would moving Cruz to third make sense?
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Bobster21
The Future . . .
0D382F2F241D2F2F24232F4A0 wrote: Tying a player up makes good sense- if you can afford to be wrong.
Clearly, a situation at third base that, I hope that I'm wrong, but I don't think will correct on its own. Few clubs can thrive with a glove-only option at the position, and with little power.
It really doesn't matter where a guy's moved if he can't hit MLB pitching, but I think that I've read where they thought of 2b and SS, but that didn't go.
If the season was a wash, I'd say let it play out as is. But, the team has some chance at PS play at the moment. Do they just stand pat and let May become the rest of the year? The issue would be there next season, anyway.
Any suggestions on how The Collaborative Brain Trust should handle? Would moving Cruz to third make sense?
Very tough situation because they are stuck with Hayes' contract. And the organization is not known for making good decisions. So I'd put my money on no change being made at 3B while the announcers are told to really emphasize his fielding.
But in a perfect world where the Pirates made logical decisions not automatically dictated by money, the Cruz to 3B idea could be an option especially if Marcano continues to do well at SS or if Peguero figures out his defensive issues at Altoona. And it remains to be seen if Cruz will suffer effects of his broken leg. He's no gold glover at SS anyway and if his range gets limited (think Rennie Stennett) SS will no longer be an option for him. Cruz wouldn't need the range at 3B that he'd need at SS or 2B and maybe Hayes could slide to 2B. He'd have Maz-like defense but still not hit.
Termarr Johnson is a few years away and Nick Gonzalez or Jared Triolo could/should be future infield options. But the brain trust has to be willing to address the Hayes situation if it will improve. If Hayes has an option left, I would even consider some AAA time to work on his hitting.
Clearly, a situation at third base that, I hope that I'm wrong, but I don't think will correct on its own. Few clubs can thrive with a glove-only option at the position, and with little power.
It really doesn't matter where a guy's moved if he can't hit MLB pitching, but I think that I've read where they thought of 2b and SS, but that didn't go.
If the season was a wash, I'd say let it play out as is. But, the team has some chance at PS play at the moment. Do they just stand pat and let May become the rest of the year? The issue would be there next season, anyway.
Any suggestions on how The Collaborative Brain Trust should handle? Would moving Cruz to third make sense?
Very tough situation because they are stuck with Hayes' contract. And the organization is not known for making good decisions. So I'd put my money on no change being made at 3B while the announcers are told to really emphasize his fielding.
But in a perfect world where the Pirates made logical decisions not automatically dictated by money, the Cruz to 3B idea could be an option especially if Marcano continues to do well at SS or if Peguero figures out his defensive issues at Altoona. And it remains to be seen if Cruz will suffer effects of his broken leg. He's no gold glover at SS anyway and if his range gets limited (think Rennie Stennett) SS will no longer be an option for him. Cruz wouldn't need the range at 3B that he'd need at SS or 2B and maybe Hayes could slide to 2B. He'd have Maz-like defense but still not hit.
Termarr Johnson is a few years away and Nick Gonzalez or Jared Triolo could/should be future infield options. But the brain trust has to be willing to address the Hayes situation if it will improve. If Hayes has an option left, I would even consider some AAA time to work on his hitting.
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GreenWeenie
- Posts: 4012
- Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:47 pm
The Future . . .
I agree with all. At the time of his extension, it was either a good decision or at least- not a bad one. The biggest factor was the eight years- a bit risky even for more experienced players.
One point that I've been trying to remind myself of is- The "Goalpost Moving Factor."
I sometimes forget that I'm the guy who predicted a 98-loss (or thereabouts) season. I knew what we had at third base. It's nothing new. That was one of the reasons why I didn't predict a much better season.
And, .500 is much better.
Maybe part of my concern with Hayes is that, now that the team's showing some signs of improvement over past seasons, I don't want the team to slip up. I want it to keep heading in the good direction.
I don't want to give up on the chance to make the playoffs even though that's far ahead of any time table that I had in mind.
I'll ease up on Hayes some. He's just stands out more because he's an everyday player, plays a key position, and is probably going to be on the team a while. Hedges won't be.
One point that I've been trying to remind myself of is- The "Goalpost Moving Factor."
I sometimes forget that I'm the guy who predicted a 98-loss (or thereabouts) season. I knew what we had at third base. It's nothing new. That was one of the reasons why I didn't predict a much better season.
And, .500 is much better.
Maybe part of my concern with Hayes is that, now that the team's showing some signs of improvement over past seasons, I don't want the team to slip up. I want it to keep heading in the good direction.
I don't want to give up on the chance to make the playoffs even though that's far ahead of any time table that I had in mind.
I'll ease up on Hayes some. He's just stands out more because he's an everyday player, plays a key position, and is probably going to be on the team a while. Hedges won't be.
The Future . . .
Hayes was 24 when the Pirates signed him to a long-term deal. Pirate management obviously thought that his offense would pick-up. I also note that they signed him when they had no other players under longer term contracts, that they wanted to project some optimism to fans that there is hope for the future, and that the contract declines in value over the longer-term (it was front loaded).
I do not believe that Hayes is the answer at 3rd, SS, or 2nd. Unfortunately, he just doesn't hit for average and he has no power, regardless of how hard he hits the ball. If I were the Pirates, I would move on from Hayes at 3rd (or any other position) and I would attempt to move him.
I also believe there would be some buyers. He is still young (26), he plays good defense (although not at a premium defensive position), he does hit the ball hard when he doesn't swing and miss (his hard hit rate may encourage teams to believe that there is some upside with a better offense around him), he is a decent base runner, and his contract is not that outlandish in today's baseball world. He is owed $7 mil over each of the next 4 years, $8 mil in both 28 and 29, and has a $6 mil buy-out in 2030 (or a $12 mil team option). That's a $50 mil minimum over the next 6+ years.
While I doubt that BC would pursue a trade of Hayes, I believe 3rd or 1st is a better long-term option for Cruz, and that the Pirates should look to their future 2nd - SS options among their current cadre of under 24 options: Marcano, Gonzalez, Castro, Bae, Peguro, Johnson, and Triolo, with a dash of Endy Rodriguez at 2nd. With the exception of Peguro, all of the above appear to have more power and the ability to hit for a higher average than Hayes.
I believe one potential landing spot for Hayes could be the Yankees. They have no true 3rd baseman. Oh well, lunch is over. Time to try and finish my working career in the next 3 weeks.
I do not believe that Hayes is the answer at 3rd, SS, or 2nd. Unfortunately, he just doesn't hit for average and he has no power, regardless of how hard he hits the ball. If I were the Pirates, I would move on from Hayes at 3rd (or any other position) and I would attempt to move him.
I also believe there would be some buyers. He is still young (26), he plays good defense (although not at a premium defensive position), he does hit the ball hard when he doesn't swing and miss (his hard hit rate may encourage teams to believe that there is some upside with a better offense around him), he is a decent base runner, and his contract is not that outlandish in today's baseball world. He is owed $7 mil over each of the next 4 years, $8 mil in both 28 and 29, and has a $6 mil buy-out in 2030 (or a $12 mil team option). That's a $50 mil minimum over the next 6+ years.
While I doubt that BC would pursue a trade of Hayes, I believe 3rd or 1st is a better long-term option for Cruz, and that the Pirates should look to their future 2nd - SS options among their current cadre of under 24 options: Marcano, Gonzalez, Castro, Bae, Peguro, Johnson, and Triolo, with a dash of Endy Rodriguez at 2nd. With the exception of Peguro, all of the above appear to have more power and the ability to hit for a higher average than Hayes.
I believe one potential landing spot for Hayes could be the Yankees. They have no true 3rd baseman. Oh well, lunch is over. Time to try and finish my working career in the next 3 weeks.
The Future . . .
Just my 2 cents....
IDK who ever suggested Hayes is a "franchise player". I never recall him being thought that way, or talked about that way.
He got a nice contract. He didn't get a "keystone of the franchise" contract. He's the 11th highest paid third baseman this season, among the 21 in MLB that are qualifiers. He drops down the list by two already for next season, and probably 4 spots as Paredes, Candelario, Brian Anderson, and Urshela will be FA's, JD Davis is Arb 4. These are all guys Hayes is making more than this season, but probably won't next year. There may be more who are platooning, but my guess is there probably aren't many making bank doing so. Does it make you feel better that a guy who is middle of the road pay wise overall as a third baseman will be paid more towards the bottom of the list for the next 6 years?
Of those 21, he's 15th in WAR (using the figures on baseball reference). That's total, not offensive or defensive. So he's clearly not the worst around, if WAR is to be believed at some level.
People want to project what positions should be power positions, etc. Hayes wasn't signed based upon a few AB's in 2020 that people keep talking about. He was signed to the long term deal after the 2021 season, where he had an OPS of only .689 There is no way the Pirates management saw that 85 AB in 2020 as the norm, no doubt they saw it as an aberration, small sample size thing. Keep in mind, Cruz was supposed to be playing at a position where offensive excellence was a bonus, with his 30-40 HR power potential, which more than compensated for the diminished power from third base, a position traditionally thought to be one where you need power.
Also, I believe they expect to see above average offense from second base from either Castro, Gonzalez, Bae, Marcano, or Peguero.
I think people are too quick to want to jettison Hayes. But I have to say, the most questionable stuff I've been reading is defense isn't that big of a deal at third, let's get a bopper.
My, my, my. How soon we forget Pedro Alvarez. Even when he was hitting above average, like his silver slugger year where he tied for the NL lead in HR's, people were not happy with his poor defense, and felt he should be moved to first base.
Now we have the opposite, and people want to move him. Hayes is part of an overall team concept, that I believe was built around a philosophy of Cruz, Davis, Endy, the future second baseman, and now Reynolds keying the offense.
Hayes is simply just the first of the young group to get a contract extension. He's not being paid as a superstar, so I don't know why the expectation is he should play like one. He's simply a competent building block. A real major league player they have long term on the cheap by today's standards.
Let's let a couple seasons play out with Hayes first before casting him off 1/3 of the way into the second season of an 8 year contract.
IDK who ever suggested Hayes is a "franchise player". I never recall him being thought that way, or talked about that way.
He got a nice contract. He didn't get a "keystone of the franchise" contract. He's the 11th highest paid third baseman this season, among the 21 in MLB that are qualifiers. He drops down the list by two already for next season, and probably 4 spots as Paredes, Candelario, Brian Anderson, and Urshela will be FA's, JD Davis is Arb 4. These are all guys Hayes is making more than this season, but probably won't next year. There may be more who are platooning, but my guess is there probably aren't many making bank doing so. Does it make you feel better that a guy who is middle of the road pay wise overall as a third baseman will be paid more towards the bottom of the list for the next 6 years?
Of those 21, he's 15th in WAR (using the figures on baseball reference). That's total, not offensive or defensive. So he's clearly not the worst around, if WAR is to be believed at some level.
People want to project what positions should be power positions, etc. Hayes wasn't signed based upon a few AB's in 2020 that people keep talking about. He was signed to the long term deal after the 2021 season, where he had an OPS of only .689 There is no way the Pirates management saw that 85 AB in 2020 as the norm, no doubt they saw it as an aberration, small sample size thing. Keep in mind, Cruz was supposed to be playing at a position where offensive excellence was a bonus, with his 30-40 HR power potential, which more than compensated for the diminished power from third base, a position traditionally thought to be one where you need power.
Also, I believe they expect to see above average offense from second base from either Castro, Gonzalez, Bae, Marcano, or Peguero.
I think people are too quick to want to jettison Hayes. But I have to say, the most questionable stuff I've been reading is defense isn't that big of a deal at third, let's get a bopper.
My, my, my. How soon we forget Pedro Alvarez. Even when he was hitting above average, like his silver slugger year where he tied for the NL lead in HR's, people were not happy with his poor defense, and felt he should be moved to first base.
Now we have the opposite, and people want to move him. Hayes is part of an overall team concept, that I believe was built around a philosophy of Cruz, Davis, Endy, the future second baseman, and now Reynolds keying the offense.
Hayes is simply just the first of the young group to get a contract extension. He's not being paid as a superstar, so I don't know why the expectation is he should play like one. He's simply a competent building block. A real major league player they have long term on the cheap by today's standards.
Let's let a couple seasons play out with Hayes first before casting him off 1/3 of the way into the second season of an 8 year contract.