Thread of Optimism

OrlandoMerced · Post by **OrlandoMerced** » Sat Jan 07, 2017 1:48 pm

I just saw some odds that had the Pirates at 50-1 for the World Series. My first thought was to put $10 dollars on the Pirates, and the second was to make a post about why I'm optimistic about the Pirates for 2017.

I like the bullpen, Rivero, Watson and Hudson are going to be strong at the back end, and I think Hughes and Nicasio are good middle inning options.

I also think they'll have one of the best 2-6 hitters in the National League (Bell, McCutchen, Marte, Polanco, Kang). There is a nice combination of growth and bounceback potential to get this team back to 90+ wins.

Player - production direction from 2016 performance

Cervelli - UP: Had an injury plagued 2016, He was looking like an absolute stud to start 2016 and I think they'll do better to manage his early season innings to try and prevent nagging injuries. I think he could be a nice .360 OBP guy in the 7 hole of the lineup.

Bell - UP: I suppose there is a risk of a sophmore slump or his defense playing him off the field. But the offensive potential is huge and he could be an anchor at the 2 hole in the lineup.

Harrison - (?) He needs to have a different approach at the plate. Too much weak contact and making bad swings at pitches outside the zone. I don't think he could be less effective than his 2016, but I'm not sure if I'd count on a bounceback.

Frazier - (?) I don't really know what to expect from him, but he's a lefty with a nice approach at the plate. If he could come in, take the 2nd base job and be a league average leadoff hitter to put in front of that 2-6, he would make the rest of the lineup better.

Mercer -DOWN: I am a bit afraid that Mercer could fall off a cliff. I definitely don't think he has anything more than he's already shown us, but if he could just stay level with his 2016 production, you wouldn't ask for anything more from a SS.

Kang - Level: Let's just hope he plays, I don't think there's any reason to doubt what this guy can do on the field.

Marte - Level: He's been their best player probably since the second half of 2014

McCutchen: UP: He was replacement level even after a strong finish. I have little doubt that he can get back to his 2015 form.

Polanco: UP: Tailed off at the end of 2016, but I think this guy's power potential is massive. I like his chances of extending his strong start from last year longer into 2017.

They've lost a lot of offense in SeanRod and Joyce, but I think there are plenty of internal resources here to replace that and some.

Cole: UP: Obviously

Taillon: Level: Can't expect more than what he did last year.

Nova: Down: But I like his chances of being a solid innings eater.

There are obviously questions about the rest of the rotation, perhaps Kuhl is a rock, maybe Glasnow figures things out in AAA to start the year. But either way, I like the chances of the offense and bullpen carrying the load to start the year, and I think NH and the coaching staff will do a better job with the starting rotation in 2017.

dogknot17@yahoo.co · Post by **dogknot17@yahoo.co** » Sat Jan 07, 2017 6:14 pm

I would hope Kang and Marte go up. I also think Taillon will go up.

DemDog · Post by **DemDog** » Sat Jan 07, 2017 7:28 pm

While I do not share your all out optimism, years of rooting have taught me that such optimism leads to many more down times than I can now handle. But you can keep the all out optimism for both of us.

It maybe tempered somewhat if Kang does not make it our of Korea or if he does you have to hope MLB does not suspend him.

ThePirate · Post by **ThePirate** » Sat Jan 07, 2017 7:52 pm

In order to really have a shot at the Cubs, we must Kang to really step up.

He was absolutely horrendous since that Chicago incident.

OrlandoMerced · Post by **OrlandoMerced** » Sat Jan 07, 2017 7:52 pm

The Pirated had a chance to make some big moves last offseason, but instead chose to sit on the sidelines. The FA class last year was pretty loaded, and it was frustrating to watch the Cubs throw all that money around, especially after having ousted the Pirates in the playoff. But I can see why they chose to continue their path, coming off three consecutive playoff appearances, the main roster pieces under control, and a handful of upper level prospects on the verge of making their pro debuts.

But it failed, but let's also recognize that the Cubs' WS championship had little to do with that 2016 FA class. I mean, that Heyward signing should have meant no Fowler, but they lucked out and he came back. They might not win without his contributions.

My thinking is that the pieces are still there, nobody matches up on paper with the Cubs, so there's no reason to compete in the offseason with them, let the season play out. Player performance is more volatile in the post-steroid era, so it's not a given that they'll be as good as they were.

I've also chosen to have a short memory with respect to their 20 consecutive losing seasons. I remember the moves and sort of draft picks that they used to make so that their irrelevance would persist. It's night and day, and maybe that Liriano trade was blast from that miserable past, there is a lot of potential downside (Liriano pitches a lot of good innings in 2017 or one of those prospects breaks through). But the Pirates have plenty of other pieces to make compensate for that.

Bobster21 · Post by **Bobster21** » Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:09 pm

4A767B4E776C7F6A7B1E0 wrote: In order to really have a shot at the Cubs, we must Kang to really step up.

He was absolutely horrendous since that Chicago incident.

To be fair, he did have a very good September.

.289/.427/.602/1.030 with 5 2Bs, 7 HRs and 21 RBIs.

Roberto218 · Post by **Roberto218** » Sun Jan 08, 2017 12:25 am

I think the Bucs have plenty of upside. I am a bit worried about Mercer at SS. His defense has been in decline for a while and offense is so-so. Another good starter would help but we have some good young arms even if we don't add one. I hope Kang is able to play a full season and stays out of trouble. A fourth outfielder would be nice but JHay or Frazier or Bell are fine. We need Cole healthy, Tallion to flourish and Nova to pitch like he did for the Bucs. The 4 and 5 starters are up for grabs, but we have some solid options. I am optimistic.

Ecbucs · Post by **Ecbucs** » Sun Jan 08, 2017 2:21 am

I appreciate Orlando making this post. It shows that the Bucs do have a lot of talent and the ability to compete against most teams. The Bucs are at worst a middle of the pack team, if things go right they can be in the hunt.

There are question marks and I hope a couple more will be answered by mid-spring training at the latest.

Mercer is a solid shortstop in my opinion.

Quail · Post by **Quail** » Sun Jan 08, 2017 11:16 am

Like Ebucs I give kudos to Orlando for a great post! Thoughtful and optimistic. While I personally am more skeptical/pessimistic about many of the players I appreciate Orlando's thoughts and point of view.

BenM · Post by **BenM** » Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:50 pm

My level of pessimism tends to peak about a week after the winter meetings. As the Pirates make/don't make moves for the new season.

After that, every day we get closer to opening day makes me more optimistic about the season. Josh Bell goes to the development program? Optimism up! Austin Meadows get an invite to camp? Optimism up!

Pitchers and catchers?

A prospect slugs .500 in spring training (despite small sample size)?

Up and up! I'll be fully on board by opening day.