One month to go thoughts...

PMike · Post by **PMike** » Fri Sep 02, 2016 1:17 pm

We've got a month to go with a Pirates team that is pretty much above average. Their record indicates that. Their stats pretty much indicate that.

Offense:

The Pirates post up a pretty middle of the road for MLB batting average of .256. They are significantly better in OBP ranging at 5th in MLB but post a shocking 25th in slugging. Really, no one expected them to be a high power team, but Marte, McCutchen and Kang have really let this team down in terms of power. IMO, Polanco isn't a huge shock. He is turning into the player we thought Marte should be and McCutchen was. If he continue to grow, he will be the best of the three. This team gets on base and steals bases, but again, scoring runs in middle of MLB. I think it is the same three culprits who have let the team down in RBIs. All of that said, one could certainly see this team being significantly better in the last month and going on a tear. Those guys are due. Plus they are adding a very competent hitting in Bell (or so it appears).

Pitching:

ERA actually has them a little better than average in the league. I thought that was actually surprising. And, they have abandoned the biggest anchors for the first 5 months. However, when I look at their stats, I see a team that is bailed out by defense. They have a terrible 1.37 WHIP (22nd in the league) and low strikeouts (24th). They give up an average amount of hits, but they walk too many (10th) in the league. I don't know what to think moving forward. They really need Cole to pitch like the #1 he was last year. There is a lot of reason to think that 39 year old Vogelsong will hit the wall. The young pitchers (esp. Taillon) are throwing a lot of innings. Nova has been a surprise. They look very good right now, but this is the exhausting part of the season, even for veterans.

They seem to be on the cusp statistically. I would not have a hard time seeing them having a great September. Of course, they could continue to stumble around as they have been most of the summer.

CarolinaBucco · Post by **CarolinaBucco** » Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:32 pm

Good post. It also wouldn't surprise me at all to see this team have a great September to take one of those 2 wild card spots.

Two years ago, in 2014, the Pirates caught fire down the stretch (I think they went 17-6) to get the top WC spot. I can see the same thing happening again, but only if:

1. Cutch plays like the Cutch 2013-15 version.

2. Polanco stays hot

3. Bullpen doesn't blow any more late leads. When this team has a lead after 7 innings, it HAS to win the game. Simple as that.

rucker59@gmail.com · Post by **rucker59@gmail.com** » Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:28 pm

By this time we expected:

Cutch to be chasing the hall of fame.

Marte to be hitting 30 home runs and be the best player on the team.

Polanco to be turning into the complete package that he's now becoming.

Kang to hit 30 and be among the best 3rd basemen in MLB.

Bell to become the long awaited missing link at 1st.

Cole to be leading a young but killer rotation.

Frankie to join Cole as a lethal 1-2 punch

Glasnow to be the best #3 in the game.

Tallion to just be getting a taste.

Watson to make us forget the Shark.

I think most of us expected most of this, none of it unreasonable. Instead, nearly the entire list represents major underperformance. Only Polanco and Bell are meeting expectations. Only Tallion is exceeding expectations. So instead of chasing the Cubs we're chasing, and so far falling short, the #2 wild card.

Frankie and Kang are gone, Cole's hiding in Boras' compound, Glasnow's turned into a complete mystery and Marte is missing his call to stardom.

IF Cutch, Marte, Cole and Watson could have great Septembers then this team could still be very dangerous. But I don't see anything out of those 4 that makes me think they're about to flip a switch.

Polanco is now the best player on the team. By next season Bell will be the 2nd best player. Tallion will be the best pitcher. The Q is whether these 3 can lead this team to the WC this last month?

I think they can thanks to secondary guys who are playing well such as JHay, Freeze, Joyce, Mercer. But it would be a lot easier if the "stars" helped out.

Quail · Post by **Quail** » Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:50 pm

Great summary PMike!

I agree with pretty much everything everyone else has said. I will just say that I believe the Bucs could have a last month that could see them surge into the first WC spot or a meltdown that might have them struggling to finish ahead of the Brewers and Reds. Somehow though I can't see them in the post-season unless Cutch and Cole perform like they should. For me it's really that simple.

UtahPirate · Post by **UtahPirate** » Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:13 pm

2A2D3B333D2A6D61183F35393134763B3735580 wrote:

Frankie and Kang are gone, Cole's hiding in Boras' compound, Glasnow's turned into a complete mystery and Marte is missing his call to stardom.

Hahaha... thanks for the laugh. The Boras' note with Cole is one that no one has played. I sure hate Boras ... and have this fear that his clients will eventually underperform.

A long weekend, which I will fill with quite a bit of Pirates baseball. Looking forward to finally putting something together. Go Bucs!

CTBucco · Post by **CTBucco** » Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:08 am

I felt like Cutch has really let the team down batting with RISP this year, but then I looked at his splits. He's slashing .303/.442/.450. That's much, much better than his overall line and not far off of his career RISP slash line (OPS .918). So, we can't blame him for that.

I think some of the offensive drop off is regression to the norm for several guys who started hot as well as some of the aforementioned underperforming from guys that should be producing more.

I expect the pitching to regress some going forward and the bats to pick back up again.

PMike · Post by **PMike** » Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

7C6B7D4A5C5C503F0 wrote: I felt like Cutch has really let the team down batting with RISP this year, but then I looked at his splits. He's slashing .303/.442/.450. That's much, much better than his overall line and not far off of his career RISP slash line (OPS .918). So, we can't blame him for that.

I think some of the offensive drop off is regression to the norm for several guys who started hot as well as some of the aforementioned underperforming from guys that should be producing more.

I expect the pitching to regress some going forward and the bats to pick back up again.

Regardless of what he's slashing with RISP, he only has 57 RBIs!!! And that is hitting in the 2/3 spot all season. They have put good OBP people in front of him and he hasn't gotten the job done. Jaso was on base a lot early. When he started to struggle, the quickly made adjustments.

fjk090852-7 · Post by **fjk090852-7** » Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:34 pm

The Bucs have played about .500 since the All Star Game and I am beginning to think they will not play much better than that in these final 30 games. They now need to go 6-3 in the remaining 9 games of this home stand. Anything less and I would think they can start thinking about next season.