2017 Outlook

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dmetz
Posts: 1687
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 4:52 pm

2017 Outlook

Post by dmetz »

Jaso could hardly have come in more exact with his career numbers. Even the splits were right in line.



What were expectations? It stinks he was so cold for so long but overall he's right on his career marks
dmetz
Posts: 1687
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 4:52 pm

2017 Outlook

Post by dmetz »

The 2017 outlook is extremely mediocre. We need a good to great offseason to make up for the giant ball of dung we were handed as fans last offseason.



36 years since this organization has won a pennant. If the cubs beat the dodgers, only the expos/nationals streak of futility will be longer in the NL and really, it would be just us since nobody counts the expos as part of the Nats history.



We arguably have the best OF in baseball paid tens of million dollars under market. There is no tomorrow, only now, this season.



Play like we haven't won a pennant in two generations
Bobster21

2017 Outlook

Post by Bobster21 »

4F464E5F512B0 wrote: The 2017 outlook is extremely mediocre.  We need a good to great offseason to make up for the giant ball of dung we were handed as fans last offseason.



36 years since this organization has won a pennant.  If the cubs beat the dodgers, only the expos/nationals streak of futility will be longer in the NL and really, it would be just us since nobody counts the expos as part of the Nats history. 



We arguably have the best OF in baseball paid tens of million dollars under market.    There is no tomorrow, only now, this season. 



Play like we haven't won a pennant in two generations
A team that can't or won't pay market value for players that competes with teams that will is at a serious disadvantage and is unlikely to ever become the MLB champion. Even when so many things went right last year and resulted in 98 wins it still wasn't enough. I don't think they'll ever become champions unless the FO makes a move(s) that shock their fan base (i.e., "I can't believe they actually traded for or signed that expensive guy"). To their credit, they managed to become competitive on a shoestring budget. But it's going to take more money to go to the next level. And they aren't willing to do that. 
dmetz
Posts: 1687
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 4:52 pm

2017 Outlook

Post by dmetz »

Florida, Colorado, Tampa, Kansas city twice, and Cleveland this year.



KCs payroll was around the 130-140 level when they won. Very comparable market.



Cleveland just won a pennant with an opening day payroll comparable to ours. Tried to trade for lucroy who vetoed the trade, gave up four prospects for Andrew Miller from the Yanks. Now they have a Pennant.
PMike
Posts: 843
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 9:29 pm

2017 Outlook

Post by PMike »

5D545C4D43390 wrote: Florida, Colorado, Tampa, Kansas city twice, and Cleveland this year. 



KCs payroll was around the 130-140 level when they won. Very comparable market.



  Cleveland just won a pennant with an opening day payroll comparable to ours.  Tried to trade for lucroy who vetoed the trade, gave up four prospects for Andrew Miller from the Yanks.  Now they have a Pennant.


This is an excellent post. There seems to be a thinking that as long as the payroll is small, they can't make the playoffs. While stats show that it is much more improbable that they don't make the playoffs, low payroll teams are making it and winning the WS.



The playoffs are a crapshoot. Make it and anything can happen. I think last year and the prior year's Pirates teams were better than this year's Cleveland team. Circumstances beyond their control got in their way. All you can do is make the playoffs and hope for the best in the small series.
Aaron
Posts: 329
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:15 pm

2017 Outlook

Post by Aaron »

5E4367656B0E0 wrote: Florida, Colorado, Tampa, Kansas city twice, and Cleveland this year. 



KCs payroll was around the 130-140 level when they won. Very comparable market.



  Cleveland just won a pennant with an opening day payroll comparable to ours.  Tried to trade for lucroy who vetoed the trade, gave up four prospects for Andrew Miller from the Yanks.  Now they have a Pennant.


This is an excellent post.  There seems to be a thinking that as long as the payroll is small, they can't make the playoffs.  While stats show that it is much more improbable that they don't make the playoffs, low payroll teams are making it and winning the WS.



The playoffs are a crapshoot.  Make it and anything can happen.  I think last year and the prior year's Pirates teams were better than this year's Cleveland team.  Circumstances beyond their control got in their way.  All you can do is make the playoffs and hope for the best in the small series.


I get so tired of hearing this. The playoffs are not a crapshoot. Yes...there's an element of luck involved in any 5 or 7 game series. But you know what else is involved in any 5 or 7 game series? Talent. Are you suggesting talent has no bearing or impact on the playoffs? Are you saying that Andrew Miller hasn't had an impact on the Indians reaching the World Series and it's just luck? More importantly......are you suggesting had the Pirates had better teams with more talented players that last three years it would have ended exactly the same way?
Bobster21

2017 Outlook

Post by Bobster21 »

0E1337353B5E0 wrote: Florida, Colorado, Tampa, Kansas city twice, and Cleveland this year. 



KCs payroll was around the 130-140 level when they won. Very comparable market.



  Cleveland just won a pennant with an opening day payroll comparable to ours.  Tried to trade for lucroy who vetoed the trade, gave up four prospects for Andrew Miller from the Yanks.  Now they have a Pennant.


This is an excellent post.  There seems to be a thinking that as long as the payroll is small, they can't make the playoffs.  While stats show that it is much more improbable that they don't make the playoffs, low payroll teams are making it and winning the WS.



The playoffs are a crapshoot.  Make it and anything can happen.  I think last year and the prior year's Pirates teams were better than this year's Cleveland team.  Circumstances beyond their control got in their way.  All you can do is make the playoffs and hope for the best in the small series.
I stand by my comment that it is unlikely the Pirates will ever become the WS champion operating the way they do. We know they can make the playoffs. But I don't buy into the "crapshoot" theory. It didn't seem like a crapshoot when they had one game playoffs vs Bumgarner and Arrieta. It was nice to get that far but then they were at a serious disadvantage which played out as expected.



Let's look at the examples Dmetz provided. Colorado and Tampa got close by actually being in the WS but never won it. Furthermore, Colorado got in as a WC team in 2007 but did not have to risk a 1-game playoff elimination. They got swept in the WS. Tampa really gave it a go in 2008 with the 29th ranked payroll but lost that WS and hasn't gotten past the division playoffs since.



When Florida won the WS in 1997, they had the 5th highest payroll in MLB. When they won the WS in 2003, they were 25th in payroll (like the Pirates generally are) but were a WC team that did not have to risk a 1-game playoff elimination.



In 2014 KC overcame the 1-game WC playoff and made it to the WS with the 25th ranked payroll which was approximately 49 percent of the average of the 5 highest team payrolls in MLB that year. But they lost the WS.



Unlike the Pirates, who didn't spend to improve upon a very good season in 2015, KC was not satisfied with a WS loss in 2014 and increased spending in 2015. That year, they were ranked 16th in salary (up from 19th the year before) with a payroll approximately 55 percent of the average of the 5 highest team payrolls in MLB that year (up from 49 percent the year before). Their moves paid off and they won the WS.



It remains to be seen if the Indians can win the WS this year with approximately the same payroll as the Pirates. But they won their division and avoided the WC elimination game.



The Pirates face a young, free-spending Cubs organization that could dominate the division for years. Not to mention the always competitive Cardinals. The WC elimination game has changed things by adding an extra barrier to making it to the WS. Of the examples Dmetz provided, none has won a WS with a payroll comparable to the Pirates except the 2003 Marlins who were a WC team not required to face a 1-game elimination contest. So I think it remains very unlikely that the Pirates ever win a WS operating as they do. Hopefully, in a few years when their Root contract is up they can make a better deal and not remain one of MLB's bottom feeders in payroll. KC showed in 2015 that you don't have to break the bank but you have to be willing to increase payroll to some extent to be a better team. That's the lesson the Pirates need to learn.
dogknot17@yahoo.co

2017 Outlook

Post by dogknot17@yahoo.co »

In 2014, two wild card teams played the one and done play-in game and advanced to the World Series.



The Mets made the World Series in 2015 with the worst record of all the other NL Playoff teams. 



The Pirates did improve in 2015 and had the second best record in all of baseball.  The best team was in their division. The best two teams in 2015 both missed the playoffs in 2016.  Actually, five teams from the 2015 Playoffs missed the 2016 Playoffs. 



Of course talent wins Championships.  But all the Playoff teams have talent.  The team with the best record doesn't always win.  If that was the case why not just crown the regular season team with the best record?   



Anyone can advance once in the Playoffs.      
PMike
Posts: 843
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 9:29 pm

2017 Outlook

Post by PMike »

5474677A7B150 wrote: Florida, Colorado, Tampa, Kansas city twice, and Cleveland this year. 



KCs payroll was around the 130-140 level when they won. Very comparable market.



  Cleveland just won a pennant with an opening day payroll comparable to ours.  Tried to trade for lucroy who vetoed the trade, gave up four prospects for Andrew Miller from the Yanks.  Now they have a Pennant.


This is an excellent post.  There seems to be a thinking that as long as the payroll is small, they can't make the playoffs.  While stats show that it is much more improbable that they don't make the playoffs, low payroll teams are making it and winning the WS.



The playoffs are a crapshoot.  Make it and anything can happen.  I think last year and the prior year's Pirates teams were better than this year's Cleveland team.  Circumstances beyond their control got in their way.  All you can do is make the playoffs and hope for the best in the small series.


I get so tired of hearing this. The playoffs are not a crapshoot.  Yes...there's an element of luck involved in any 5 or 7 game series.  But you know what else is involved in any 5 or 7 game series?  Talent.  Are you suggesting talent has no bearing or impact on the playoffs?  Are you saying that Andrew Miller hasn't had an impact on the Indians reaching the World Series and it's just luck?  More importantly......are you suggesting had the Pirates had better teams with more talented players that last three years it would have ended exactly the same way?




Thanks for your response.



To some degree, we are stepping into the arbitrary. But yes, I'd absolutely stand by my statement that the playoffs are a crapshoot (to a large degree).



Does talent have no impact on the playoffs? Obviously it does. But there is no way you can convince me that the Mets and Royals were the most talented teams last year. The Royals were quite magical with their clutch hitting and use of the bullpen. The Mets completely lucked into a crazy hot Daniel Murphy and just enough offense from the rest of the team. I have no problem saying that the Cardinals and Pirates had more talented teams. No question. Every year a person can go back and look through the rosters to make that same argument. The best team doesn't always win or make it through. The Wild Card has exacerbated this issue.



Andrew Miller has had a huge effect on this postseason. No doubt about it. Kershaw is the most talented pitcher in the majors. While he has been the primary reason the Dodgers have made it this far this year, he has been a major impediment in previous years.



If the Pirates had more talent, would things have turned out the same way? Who the heck knows. Last year, what would have been the answer? Which other pitcher in the league would you have rather had than Cole? Keep in mind, Cole was, what, 4th in Cy Young voting. Not that it would have mattered because they got shut out. So, then, what hitters would have been better to have than the guys we threw out there? What would have been reasonable to beat Arrieta who was in the midst of a run that had never been equaled. How were the Pirates supposed to win that WC game? I think the Pirates were the better team, but a one game playoff is a crapshoot. And it stands in contrast to the pattern of baseball.
Aaron
Posts: 329
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:15 pm

2017 Outlook

Post by Aaron »

1A0723212F4A0 wrote: Florida, Colorado, Tampa, Kansas city twice, and Cleveland this year. 



KCs payroll was around the 130-140 level when they won. Very comparable market.



  Cleveland just won a pennant with an opening day payroll comparable to ours.  Tried to trade for lucroy who vetoed the trade, gave up four prospects for Andrew Miller from the Yanks.  Now they have a Pennant.


This is an excellent post.  There seems to be a thinking that as long as the payroll is small, they can't make the playoffs.  While stats show that it is much more improbable that they don't make the playoffs, low payroll teams are making it and winning the WS.



The playoffs are a crapshoot.  Make it and anything can happen.  I think last year and the prior year's Pirates teams were better than this year's Cleveland team.  Circumstances beyond their control got in their way.  All you can do is make the playoffs and hope for the best in the small series.


I get so tired of hearing this. The playoffs are not a crapshoot.  Yes...there's an element of luck involved in any 5 or 7 game series.  But you know what else is involved in any 5 or 7 game series?  Talent.  Are you suggesting talent has no bearing or impact on the playoffs?  Are you saying that Andrew Miller hasn't had an impact on the Indians reaching the World Series and it's just luck?  More importantly......are you suggesting had the Pirates had better teams with more talented players that last three years it would have ended exactly the same way?




Thanks for your response.



To some degree, we are stepping into the arbitrary.  But yes, I'd absolutely stand by my statement that the playoffs are a crapshoot (to a large degree).



Does talent have no impact on the playoffs?  Obviously it does.  But there is no way you can convince me that the Mets and Royals were the most talented teams last year.  The Royals were quite magical with their clutch hitting and use of the bullpen.  The Mets completely lucked into a crazy hot Daniel Murphy and just enough offense from the rest of the team.  I have no problem saying that the Cardinals and Pirates had more talented teams.  No question.  Every year a person can go back and look through the rosters to make that same argument.  The best team doesn't always win or make it through.  The Wild Card has exacerbated this issue.



Andrew Miller has had a huge effect on this postseason.  No doubt about it.  Kershaw is the most talented pitcher in the majors.  While he has been the primary reason the Dodgers have made it this far this year, he has been a major impediment in previous years.



If the Pirates had more talent, would things have turned out the same way?  Who the heck knows.  Last year, what would have been the answer?  Which other pitcher in the league would you have rather had than Cole?  Keep in mind, Cole was, what, 4th in Cy Young voting.  Not that it would have mattered because they got shut out.  So, then, what hitters would have been better to have than the guys we threw out there?  What would have been reasonable to beat Arrieta who was in the midst of a run that had never been equaled. How were the Pirates supposed to win that WC game?  I think the Pirates were the better team, but a one game playoff is a crapshoot.  And it stands in contrast to the pattern of baseball.


Seems you want to keep ignoring the talent aspect and solely focus on the luck. I've acknowledged how luck is a component of playoff series. But to dismiss talent and claim it's all a crapshoot is intellectually dishonest.
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