I am no longer counting out the Brewers. Its sad that everyone is assuming they won't win the division. Also funny, I could care less. I hate the Brewers too. I just don't think bad teams hold onto first place this long. They could lose it in the end, but they are not a bad team. The Brewers would be top teams in other divisions too, not just the NL Central.
The Cubs and Cardinals are on pace for losing records. So, are the Pirates. These teams really need to turn it on.
I know the Pirates play their division 44 more times. This is the only reason why I think they are still in it along with the Marte factor. I do not know how many games the other teams have in the division.
(Plus $1,700 means if you bet $100 on the Pirates to win the Division, you would win $1700 if they did win the Division.)
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Moderators: SammyKhalifa, Doc, Bobster
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Agghh ---- Shades of 1997. No one is playing all that well so even the Pirates were in the hunt with a below .500 record late in the year.
While I too have basically written off the team's chances for success this year, a miraculous run this week could continue to offer a flicker of hope. Take 2 of 3 from the Cards and 3 of 4 from the Brewers, and hey --- the team is sniffing .500 and it appears to have a chance.
So --- what occurs if the above scenario unfolds. Bucs win 5 of 7 and are suddenly 47 - 49, with 66 games to go? Does NH sit back and determine that the team has righted the ship and stands pat, or does he (really Nutting) determine that the team could make a key addition or too and make a run for the NL Central Division Crown? My guess is the former, even though it could be the latter.
Hoping that we actually could be discussing how the Bucs should make a push if this next week goes well. That said, I am not expecting such.
While I too have basically written off the team's chances for success this year, a miraculous run this week could continue to offer a flicker of hope. Take 2 of 3 from the Cards and 3 of 4 from the Brewers, and hey --- the team is sniffing .500 and it appears to have a chance.
So --- what occurs if the above scenario unfolds. Bucs win 5 of 7 and are suddenly 47 - 49, with 66 games to go? Does NH sit back and determine that the team has righted the ship and stands pat, or does he (really Nutting) determine that the team could make a key addition or too and make a run for the NL Central Division Crown? My guess is the former, even though it could be the latter.
Hoping that we actually could be discussing how the Bucs should make a push if this next week goes well. That said, I am not expecting such.
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SammyKhalifa
- Posts: 3642
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:19 am
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Thanks. 538 has us at 9% chance. That would of course change a lot with drastic swings either way in the next two series.
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ArnoldRothstein
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774A5459565C57755D4A5B5D5C380 wrote: the Pirates have to turn into a .600+ winning percentage team to capture the division.
The early 70s Pirates made the postseason 3 years in a row, then stumbled around for a year and a half. After 86 games in 1974, they found themselves 37-49, but righted to ship to go 51-25 the rest of the way, and clinch a weak division on the last day of the season.
The early 70s Pirates made the postseason 3 years in a row, then stumbled around for a year and a half. After 86 games in 1974, they found themselves 37-49, but righted to ship to go 51-25 the rest of the way, and clinch a weak division on the last day of the season.
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ArnoldRothstein
Positive Thought
416D6562694E796F7F0C0 wrote:
So --- what occurs if the above scenario unfolds. Bucs win 5 of 7 and are suddenly 47 - 49, with 66 games to go? Does NH sit back and determine that the team has righted the ship and stands pat, or does he (really Nutting) determine that the team could make a key addition or too and make a run for the NL Central Division Crown?
My sense is that this depends more on their internal metrics than on how they handle the next few series.
So --- what occurs if the above scenario unfolds. Bucs win 5 of 7 and are suddenly 47 - 49, with 66 games to go? Does NH sit back and determine that the team has righted the ship and stands pat, or does he (really Nutting) determine that the team could make a key addition or too and make a run for the NL Central Division Crown?
My sense is that this depends more on their internal metrics than on how they handle the next few series.
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dogknot17@yahoo.co
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I do think Watson will be traded no matter what. Freese or Jaso can be moved too if they are ok with Frazier at 2B as a starter.
If others aren't traded, I can see them going for it. I see these guys being traded as soft sells (like trading Melancon, but adding Nova).
If others aren't traded, I can see them going for it. I see these guys being traded as soft sells (like trading Melancon, but adding Nova).
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Bobster21
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033E202D22282301293E2F29284C0 wrote: Brewers are currently on pace for 89 wins. You can probably make a case that 88 wins guarantees you the division and you can probably win it with 87.
That means the Pirates have to win 45-46 out of their remaining 73 games.
I also don't believe in the Brewers, but because the Pirates have to leap two other teams, it's not going to be about what other teams do, the Pirates have to turn into a .600+ winning percentage team to capture the division.
That's right. Even if we make that optimistic leap and say we won't have to worry about the Brewers winning the division, there are 2 other teams also ahead of the Pirates. Losses to anyone-including the Brewers-will make it harder and harder to pass all 3 teams ahead of them. The Pirates have to get hot. Playing .500 ball or less won't do it.
That means the Pirates have to win 45-46 out of their remaining 73 games.
I also don't believe in the Brewers, but because the Pirates have to leap two other teams, it's not going to be about what other teams do, the Pirates have to turn into a .600+ winning percentage team to capture the division.
That's right. Even if we make that optimistic leap and say we won't have to worry about the Brewers winning the division, there are 2 other teams also ahead of the Pirates. Losses to anyone-including the Brewers-will make it harder and harder to pass all 3 teams ahead of them. The Pirates have to get hot. Playing .500 ball or less won't do it.
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OrlandoMerced
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487B6766656D5B667D617A7D6C6067090 wrote: the Pirates have to turn into a .600+ winning percentage team to capture the division.
The early 70s Pirates made the postseason 3 years in a row, then stumbled around for a year and a half. After 86 games in 1974, they found themselves 37-49, but righted to ship to go 51-25 the rest of the way, and clinch a weak division on the last day of the season.
I think the Pirates have the potential to right the ship. Adding a Marte to the lineup is crucial, Harrison, Freese and Frazier are all slowing down and need fewer at bats. McCutchen is back to being McCutchen so that in itself makes the lineup formidable.
The rotation looks relatively sturdy with Brault ready to step in if there's an injury. Then there's the wildcard in Glasnow that could also be an interesting add to the roster if they are in the playoff race.
The early 70s Pirates made the postseason 3 years in a row, then stumbled around for a year and a half. After 86 games in 1974, they found themselves 37-49, but righted to ship to go 51-25 the rest of the way, and clinch a weak division on the last day of the season.
I think the Pirates have the potential to right the ship. Adding a Marte to the lineup is crucial, Harrison, Freese and Frazier are all slowing down and need fewer at bats. McCutchen is back to being McCutchen so that in itself makes the lineup formidable.
The rotation looks relatively sturdy with Brault ready to step in if there's an injury. Then there's the wildcard in Glasnow that could also be an interesting add to the roster if they are in the playoff race.
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OrlandoMerced
Positive Thought
I also just looked at Hudson's numbers. He's been a solid reliever since his disastrous month April. 2.36 ERA in 26.2 innings since his outing on 4/30.
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JollyRoger
- Posts: 1469
- Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 8:31 pm
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I am in the minority here, but I think the Brewers are solid and will play consistent winning baseball. I also think their ownership will go all in and bring additional talent inat the trade deadline. They have a chance to win a division that was handed to their rival Cubs at the beginning of the season and they will go for it.
The Cubs are a disaster. Every metric says they are a bad team and they have played that way. I also think the innings that the starters pitched last year and the short time off has had an impact.
Who on this board thought that when Taillon was scratched in favor of Kuhl to pitch against Lester that the Pirates had a shot to win that game? We all know that the Bucs crushed them. The Cubs kind of remind me of the 1973 Pirates. The Bucs were a great team in 1972 trying for back to back titles. When Clemente was killed that off season; they were never right in 1973 and just stumbled through the season. I don't see the Cubs turning it on. They seem lost
The Cards are certainly no better than the Pirates. They are not pulling out the miraculous comebacks that they did on a regular basis in seasons past.
I think the Bucs can steal a division title if things line up as discussed in this thread. The next week and the trade deadline will be very interesting
The Cubs are a disaster. Every metric says they are a bad team and they have played that way. I also think the innings that the starters pitched last year and the short time off has had an impact.
Who on this board thought that when Taillon was scratched in favor of Kuhl to pitch against Lester that the Pirates had a shot to win that game? We all know that the Bucs crushed them. The Cubs kind of remind me of the 1973 Pirates. The Bucs were a great team in 1972 trying for back to back titles. When Clemente was killed that off season; they were never right in 1973 and just stumbled through the season. I don't see the Cubs turning it on. They seem lost
The Cards are certainly no better than the Pirates. They are not pulling out the miraculous comebacks that they did on a regular basis in seasons past.
I think the Bucs can steal a division title if things line up as discussed in this thread. The next week and the trade deadline will be very interesting