Impact Rookies

[rucker59@gmail.com]

505B535F5A5B400503744D555C5B5B1A575B340 wrote:





Alvarez, Taillon, and Cole were all good picks.



.....



).


If your picking 1st or 2nd you can't swing and miss. I think DL is judged by his colossal misses at the top of the draft. Neal didn't fail like DL, but in two of those drafts, Neal missed on the bigger talent. Cole is the only pick, in hindsight, that was probably the best choice.



Machado from 2010, Posey or Hosmer from 2008, added to the core of the three year run and its very easy to imagine the Pirates winning a WS.

[dogknot17@yahoo.co]

I don't think these guys were misses. Yeah, there were better players taken later but these were not bad picks at all.



Machado vs Taillon was a great debate back then. If I recall, the Orioles wanted Taillon too. Machado is a stud. Taillon is a rookie.

[rucker59@gmail.com]

557372657363100 wrote: Question about the hightlighted sentence below, maybe NH is not being asked to win championships by the owner (or if he is there are objectives that are much more important).





What I see is that the Bucs have gotten into a rut.  One where they will only try to sign reclamation projects and not go at a minimum into the FA market for upper middle FAs. 




Here's the problem I see with the free agent market:



There are 3 tiers

1. The high-end mega-star, mega-contracts.  These guys will likely be difference-makers for at least the early part of their contracts.  However, they will cost so much that it's debatable if they could ever give enough value for their cost.  A middling performance sinks the team, to say nothing of a crash-and-burn. . . and they cost a fortune at the end of their contract while putting out the worst stats of their careers.



2. Mid-tier. These are older players that have done something in the past, but are fading, or players that are middle-of-the road.  In most cases they won't be difference-makers, and they cost too much.  They can contribute to a good team who need to fill one or 2 holes, but as middling/older talent, they are more likely to fall off the cliff before the end of the contract. 



For both the top and mid-tier, you're playing players based on past performances, ones they're unlikely to repeat, as they are aging and injuries are piling up.



3. Dumpster-diving/reclamation.  Older players looking for one last contract, pitchers who lost the plate last season, players looking to rebuild value after a bad contract year, etc.  The only tier that might possibly provide good value, but they are also the group most likely to be out of baseball before the end of the season.



The Pirates, for whatever reason, can't or won't take the monitory risks needed to get anything other than a reclamation project.  Given that, they need to evaluate talent better for the draft and in Latin America (things on that front seem kind of quiet in recent years).  They also need to take players that are over-performing, and/or are approaching the end of their contract, and use them to restock the minors.  On occasion, they may have to turn over the team and have a fire-sale.



They could take on some short-term bad contracts to plug the holes left by the players they trade away.  Overpaying for half-a-season of a player who is performing OK at the time of the trade, and will be gone at the end of the season, isn't tragic.  The danger is overpaying someone, or several someones, for 3 years and having them tank. 



Dumpster-diving is a really erratic way to build your team, but signing so-called mid-tier players doesn't always look much more appealing, and signing top-tier players just isn't going to happen.  We have to maximize the draft and LA signings, and turn over players to keep the farm stocked.  Cutch needs to go before the trade deadline if we can scare up a good offer, and if Cole can build his value with a couple good performances, he should go as well.  The farm needs constant stocking.  Everything else costs too much and carries too much risk.



It comes down to player evaluation, and I think the front office knows this.  EVERY front office knows this, and they're all doing the best they can, but there's no magic formula. 


.........




Actually, maybe you're correct. There is a lot of evidence that the main objective is to avoid up and down cycles, remaining competitive year after year.  I can believe Neal when he says "just get into the playoffs as many times as possible and see what happens."  I don't generally agree with that as an "all or nothing" proposition, but I can understand.



For Nutting, if probably looks like the best business model.



The problem is, it appears, maintaining a competitive level year after year is proving to be unrealistic.



NLC is just waiting for someone to step up and take it. Assuming the pirates don't take it, we're now out of the playoffs two straight years.  What makes anyone thing next year will be different? 



So, whether the goal is to win or just remain competitive, we seem to be arriving at the same place: we're failing. However, if the goal was to win, and a couple moves had been made, the Pirates might have a WS right now.

[rucker59@gmail.com]

4D464E4247465D181E695048414646074A46290 wrote: I don't think these guys were misses.  Yeah, there were better players taken later but these were not bad picks at all. 



Machado vs Taillon was a great debate back then.  If I recall, the Orioles wanted Taillon too.  Machado is a stud.  Taillon is a rookie.


I didn't say they were bad picks or misses.  I said the pirates didn't get the best in either 2008 or 10.  That doesn't make Neal a failure, but getting a good return on ##2 doesn't make him great.



He did well.  If he'd done better who knows what the conversation would be right now.

[rucker59@gmail.com]

I want to restate - generally I think highly of Neal. I will never forget that he built those winning teams. But, as much as I hate to face this, it's true: in total I think his drafts warrant an "F" CONSIDERING the critical weight that the Pirates place on their prospects.



Glasnow is the one that has pushed me over the edge.  Everyone of us were counting on him being a stud. Maybe he will yet, I hope, but so far he looks to be a zero.

[dogknot17@yahoo.co]

Don't forget that only three teams who made the MLB Playoffs ended up going further the next year since 2008.



So, after 41 teams made the NL Playoffs one year, only two did better the following year: Phillies and Cubs. Two in the NL since 2008 (82 teams total for three: Royals).



Makes you wonder why the other 38 NL teams didn't build on their playoff runs? Or the other 79 teams in all of baseball?

[Bobster21]

2F283E36382F68641D3A303C3431733E32305D0 wrote: I want to restate - generally I think highly of Neal. I will never forget that he built those winning teams. But, as much as I hate to face this, it's true: in total I think his drafts warrant an "F" CONSIDERING the critical weight that the Pirates place on their prospects.



Glasnow is the one that has pushed me over the edge.  Everyone of us were counting on him being a stud. Maybe he will yet, I hope, but so far he looks to be a zero.
And although he wasn't drafted, Polanco was supposed to be a key impact player and seems to be failing badly.

[rucker59@gmail.com]

4B666B7A7D6C7B3B38090 wrote: I want to restate - generally I think highly of Neal. I will never forget that he built those winning teams. But, as much as I hate to face this, it's true: in total I think his drafts warrant an "F" CONSIDERING the critical weight that the Pirates place on their prospects.



Glasnow is the one that has pushed me over the edge.  Everyone of us were counting on him being a stud. Maybe he will yet, I hope, but so far he looks to be a zero.
And although he wasn't drafted, Polanco was supposed to be a key impact player and seems to be failing badly.


Right. And over and over. It seems our prospects are way overvalued. Dog wonders why the Pirates don't occasionally score that unexpected star. The bigger issue, however, is how badly top prospects have preformed relative to expectations. I'd say beginning with Pedro.

[dogknot17@yahoo.co]

Well, that also depends on the expectations you set for players. My expectations for Bell and Glasnow weren't very high this year. But some thought Glasnow would be a top of the rotation pitcher at age 22. I didn't think he belonged on the team.



I also don't think Meadows will step right in and replace McCutchen. He is years away from that.

[SammyKhalifa]

353E363A3F3E256066112830393E3E7F323E510 wrote: But some thought Glasnow would be a top of the rotation pitcher at age 22.  I didn't think he belonged on the team.




So are you saying that needed to get another starting pitcher?