The competition for the #1 draft pick is narrowing, and the Pirates, unfortunately, are within striking distance, particularly if they continue to lose games at the rate that they have over the past 10 games (2 - 8).
The Reds have 46 wins.
The Pirates and Tigers have 45 wins.
Oakland trails with 43 wins.
And the Nationals have only 39 wins.
The Bucs, however, are entering a frightful part of their schedule. After 3 upcoming games with the Reds, they face the following:
Phillies
Brewers
Blue Jays
Mets
Cards
Reds
Mets
Yankees
Cubs
Cards (6 games to end the season)
All but the Reds and Cubs are in play-off contention, and the Reds and Cubs have been playing better as of late.
In short, the recent stretch of painful games may be just the start of a miserable end to the current season.
Pirates Getting Closer to the Race to the Bottom
Moderators: SammyKhalifa, Doc, Bobster
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2drfischer@gmail.c
Pirates Getting Closer to the Race to the Bottom
6F434B4C4760574151220 wrote: The competition for the #1 draft pick is narrowing, and the Pirates, unfortunately, are within striking distance, particularly if they continue to lose games at the rate that they have over the past 10 games (2 - 8).
The Reds have 46 wins.
The Pirates and Tigers have 45 wins.
Oakland trails with 43 wins.
And the Nationals have only 39 wins.
The Bucs, however, are entering a frightful part of their schedule. After 3 upcoming games with the Reds, they face the following:
Phillies
Brewers
Blue Jays
Mets
Cards
Reds
Mets
Yankees
Cubs
Cards (6 games to end the season)
All but the Reds and Cubs are in play-off contention, and the Reds and Cubs have been playing better as of late.
In short, the recent stretch of painful games may be just the start of a miserable end to the current season.
Yikes, that's a murderous schedule for our boys. And even though Joey Votto is out for the season, which one would think would make it easier for the Bucs to grab a few wins, forget it. As long as Jonathan India can strap it on, he'll single-handedly win nearly all of those remaining games for the Reds. He friggin' kills us.
The Reds have 46 wins.
The Pirates and Tigers have 45 wins.
Oakland trails with 43 wins.
And the Nationals have only 39 wins.
The Bucs, however, are entering a frightful part of their schedule. After 3 upcoming games with the Reds, they face the following:
Phillies
Brewers
Blue Jays
Mets
Cards
Reds
Mets
Yankees
Cubs
Cards (6 games to end the season)
All but the Reds and Cubs are in play-off contention, and the Reds and Cubs have been playing better as of late.
In short, the recent stretch of painful games may be just the start of a miserable end to the current season.
Yikes, that's a murderous schedule for our boys. And even though Joey Votto is out for the season, which one would think would make it easier for the Bucs to grab a few wins, forget it. As long as Jonathan India can strap it on, he'll single-handedly win nearly all of those remaining games for the Reds. He friggin' kills us.
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ArnoldRothstein
Pirates Getting Closer to the Race to the Bottom
The Nats would be very tough to catch. They're way behind in run differential, -212 to -168.
Pirates Getting Closer to the Race to the Bottom
Is the holder of the worst record given the No. 1 pick or does the draft pick lottery come into play this year? What a bummer it would be to have the worst record and still draft at 7 or 8.
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Bobster21
Pirates Getting Closer to the Race to the Bottom
6062787E680D0 wrote: Is the holder of the worst record given the No. 1 pick or does the draft pick lottery come into play this year? What a bummer it would be to have the worst record and still draft at 7 or 8.
They could have the worst record and still pick as low as 7th with the new draft lottery in 2023. The first 6 picks are determined by a lottery involving the 18 non-playoff teams. After that, it reverts to worst W-L records. The lottery is weighted toward the worst records of those 18 teams with the worst 3 teams having equals chances and then decreasing odds for each of the next 15 teams. But anyone can get lucky in the lottery so it's possible--although unlikely--that none of the worst 6 teams would pick 1-6 and as a result the worst 6 teams could end picking 7-12.
They could have the worst record and still pick as low as 7th with the new draft lottery in 2023. The first 6 picks are determined by a lottery involving the 18 non-playoff teams. After that, it reverts to worst W-L records. The lottery is weighted toward the worst records of those 18 teams with the worst 3 teams having equals chances and then decreasing odds for each of the next 15 teams. But anyone can get lucky in the lottery so it's possible--although unlikely--that none of the worst 6 teams would pick 1-6 and as a result the worst 6 teams could end picking 7-12.
Pirates Getting Closer to the Race to the Bottom
Thank you. That's confusing but I can see where it might slow tanking.
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Bobster21
Pirates Getting Closer to the Race to the Bottom
4E4C565046230 wrote: Thank you. That's confusing but I can see where it might slow tanking.
To try to address the confusion:
Picks 1-6 are based on a lottery including all 18 teams that didn't make the post season. The lottery is weighted to give the worst teams the better chance to win a better draft slot. The worst 3 teams will be lumped together as if they had the same record and all 3 will have a 16.5% chance of being selected for a better slot.
The team with the 4th worst record will have a 13.25% chance. Then it goes down to 's 10%, 7.5% and continues to decrease the odds for each team based on their record. The better records among those 18 teams will have less than 2% or even less than 1% chance of winning that lottery to get one of the first 6 picks.
After the lottery has determined the first 6 drafting slots, picks 7-30 go in order of W-L record among the remaining 24 teams.
To try to address the confusion:
Picks 1-6 are based on a lottery including all 18 teams that didn't make the post season. The lottery is weighted to give the worst teams the better chance to win a better draft slot. The worst 3 teams will be lumped together as if they had the same record and all 3 will have a 16.5% chance of being selected for a better slot.
The team with the 4th worst record will have a 13.25% chance. Then it goes down to 's 10%, 7.5% and continues to decrease the odds for each team based on their record. The better records among those 18 teams will have less than 2% or even less than 1% chance of winning that lottery to get one of the first 6 picks.
After the lottery has determined the first 6 drafting slots, picks 7-30 go in order of W-L record among the remaining 24 teams.
Pirates Getting Closer to the Race to the Bottom
774458595A526459425E4542535F58360 wrote: The Nats would be very tough to catch. They're way behind in run differential, -212 to -168.
89 runs of the Pirates run differential is in 6 games. They could have lost those games by one run, and have a run differential of -85 instead.
Would that make any difference at all? They'd still have the same record. Run differential like many other "stats" can really be skewered by an outlier or two.
89 runs of the Pirates run differential is in 6 games. They could have lost those games by one run, and have a run differential of -85 instead.
Would that make any difference at all? They'd still have the same record. Run differential like many other "stats" can really be skewered by an outlier or two.
Pirates Getting Closer to the Race to the Bottom
715750454C40574149220 wrote: The Nats would be very tough to catch. They're way behind in run differential, -212 to -168.
89 runs of the Pirates run differential is in 6 games. They could have lost those games by one run, and have a run differential of -85 instead.
Would that make any difference at all? They'd still have the same record. Run differential like many other "stats" can really be skewered by an outlier or two.
not to mention VanMeter pitching appearances.
89 runs of the Pirates run differential is in 6 games. They could have lost those games by one run, and have a run differential of -85 instead.
Would that make any difference at all? They'd still have the same record. Run differential like many other "stats" can really be skewered by an outlier or two.
not to mention VanMeter pitching appearances.