4245535B5542050970575D51595C1E535F5D300 wrote:
1) Do you disagree with my comment about the system being depleted compared compared to recent years or do you disagree with my comment about few interesting players past Hayes? Or both?
2) I know you follow the farm and I'd love to be wrong. Do you think the system is comparable to recent years?
3) Also, I miss the reports on prospects that use to be posted here regularly. I invite the posters that follow the farm fairly closely to post more often on prospects.
1) Both. When I hear interesting in context of prospects, I think most people are thinking high ceiling. If that's your definition of interesting, I don't think Hayes is actually that interesting. Maybe it's because I have his dad in my brain, but I think his most likely outcome if he becomes a major league regular is steady not spectacular. A lot of teams would take that at third. Of course, there are no guarantees he even gets there.
Using Sickels Top 20 as a guideline, where he had Hayes 6th, here are my thoughts on some guys past him.
- 7. Hearn - Might be the most interesting prospect in the system if he can stretch out. Then again, he might be a relief pitcher.
- 8. Kingham - Showed great resiliency early in his return. He could still be a middle of the rotation pitcher, maybe even a two.
- 10. Tucker - Sure, he posted "meh" numbers last year, but he was recovering a sometimes catastrophic surgery, was still young for his level and before his injury posted two months of a comparable if not better hit tool than Rafeal Devers.
- 11. Craig - Pirates have learned their lesson from Pedro Alvarez and it seems like they're focused on building up Craig's hit tool from the jump. Rough start numbers wise, but encouraging K% for a guy with above average raw power. Could become a complete hitter.
- 12. Garcia - big arm, still raw
- Any 2016 drafted prep pitcher and Luis Escobar. Long way off but stay tuned.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/12/ ... s-for-2017
2) I don't think it's as strong as it was when Cole, Taillon, Bell, Hansen and Polanco were headlining the system heading into the 2013, but I still do think it's top ten in baseball.
3) I agree with that and for a guy who works in Altoona, I should really take in more Curve games. However, I think we've gotten burnt on our excitement created by some of these reports in the past. The cold hard fact about prospects is few of them actually reach their ceiling and many of them flame out before they get to AAA let alone the majors. Look at Stetson Allie and probably Luis Heredia. Also remember our two months of ecstasy with Matt Curry in the SAL or when everyone begged me to put MDLC on the poll? Maybe one or, long shot, two of the players I noted as "Interesting" in answer 1) will even come close to their ceiling. The safe baseball prospects live a couple doors down from the Easter bunny!
We make our lists and pass our judgements, but honestly, anything can happen which is why the list from last year will look completely different than last years and why next year's will look different again. It also makes following player development in baseball more interesting than in any other sport as its so unpredictable. Players no one expected anything from early can become stars, and 18 year old world beaters who have movies made about them can have a 36% K rate and an OPS under .800 in the majors their second season. That's why it took until 1987 (22 players) for the first top overall pick to be elected in the hall of fame!
I think we're all a little more seasoned and maybe a touch more critical of prospects which might lead to your overall thoughts of the system. I know my player evaluations have gotten tougher and I'm a little less likely to assume that a player X is going to have Y career in the majors especially when they're still miles away from Pittsburgh particularly miles to the south. However, you can still look at ceilings and dream big while understanding that nothing is written in stone. Also keep in mind that there are a lot of guys further down the list that could also become contributors. I had Luis Heredia 3 and Jordy Mercer 21 in 2013. Whose the more interesting prospect now?
Who is the #4 prospect for 2017
Moderators: SammyKhalifa, Doc, Bobster
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OrlandoMerced
Who is the #4 prospect for 2017
With regards to the sentiment that the "cavalry is no longer coming", that's because the cavalry is here.
The first wave of the organizational turnaround was the McCutchen, Alvarez, Walker, Tabata wave. Since then, Marte, Cole, Polanco, Taillon and Bell. And they still have Glasnow, Meadows and Kingham in AAA for 2017.
Then another wave after that with guys like Newman, Craig and Keller. The system isn't going to get hyped like the Braves, White Sox, Yankees and Dodgers will be, but compared to other teams, I like the Pirates combination of young core pieces under long term team control, manageable payroll and high ceiling prospects. The Pirates will have I think 4 picks before the third round (1st Round pick, comp pick for Lodolo, 2nd Round pick, 2nd round bonus pick), and I'm sort of banking on the Pirates being big players for the top International prospects this year.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/internat ... vlhtOyd.97
The Pirates are one of 8 teams with the max 5.75M bonus pool, and three of those teams can't sign any players for more than 300K. So they have a chance to add impact guys to the system.
The first wave of the organizational turnaround was the McCutchen, Alvarez, Walker, Tabata wave. Since then, Marte, Cole, Polanco, Taillon and Bell. And they still have Glasnow, Meadows and Kingham in AAA for 2017.
Then another wave after that with guys like Newman, Craig and Keller. The system isn't going to get hyped like the Braves, White Sox, Yankees and Dodgers will be, but compared to other teams, I like the Pirates combination of young core pieces under long term team control, manageable payroll and high ceiling prospects. The Pirates will have I think 4 picks before the third round (1st Round pick, comp pick for Lodolo, 2nd Round pick, 2nd round bonus pick), and I'm sort of banking on the Pirates being big players for the top International prospects this year.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/internat ... vlhtOyd.97
The Pirates are one of 8 teams with the max 5.75M bonus pool, and three of those teams can't sign any players for more than 300K. So they have a chance to add impact guys to the system.
Who is the #4 prospect for 2017
P2 has a nice article today on younger players getting spring training invites (it's worth reading the article just to see the phrase "spring training" being thrown around). There are a number of really interesting players being mentioned there.
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SammyKhalifa
- Posts: 3642
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:19 am
Who is the #4 prospect for 2017
6163797F690C0 wrote: P2 has a nice article today on younger players getting spring training invites (it's worth reading the article just to see the phrase "spring training" being thrown around). There are a number of really interesting players being mentioned there.
And it's minicamp!
Among those expected at #Pirates minicamp: Brault, Taillon, Kuhl, Glasnow, Williams, Hutchison, Diaz, Jaso, Frazier, Bell and Polanco.
And it's minicamp!
Among those expected at #Pirates minicamp: Brault, Taillon, Kuhl, Glasnow, Williams, Hutchison, Diaz, Jaso, Frazier, Bell and Polanco.
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rucker59@gmail.com
Who is the #4 prospect for 2017
5176677467333B3B3A33020 wrote:
1) Do you disagree with my comment about the system being depleted compared compared to recent years or do you disagree with my comment about few interesting players past Hayes? Or both?
2) I know you follow the farm and I'd love to be wrong. Do you think the system is comparable to recent years?
3) Also, I miss the reports on prospects that use to be posted here regularly. I invite the posters that follow the farm fairly closely to post more often on prospects.
1) Both. When I hear interesting in context of prospects, I think most people are thinking high ceiling. If that's your definition of interesting, I don't think Hayes is actually that interesting. Maybe it's because I have his dad in my brain, but I think his most likely outcome if he becomes a major league regular is steady not spectacular. A lot of teams would take that at third. Of course, there are no guarantees he even gets there.
Using Sickels Top 20 as a guideline, where he had Hayes 6th, here are my thoughts on some guys past him.
- 7. Hearn - Might be the most interesting prospect in the system if he can stretch out. Then again, he might be a relief pitcher.
- 8. Kingham - Showed great resiliency early in his return. He could still be a middle of the rotation pitcher, maybe even a two.
- 10. Tucker - Sure, he posted "meh" numbers last year, but he was recovering a sometimes catastrophic surgery, was still young for his level and before his injury posted two months of a comparable if not better hit tool than Rafeal Devers.
- 11. Craig - Pirates have learned their lesson from Pedro Alvarez and it seems like they're focused on building up Craig's hit tool from the jump. Rough start numbers wise, but encouraging K% for a guy with above average raw power. Could become a complete hitter.
- 12. Garcia - big arm, still raw
- Any 2016 drafted prep pitcher and Luis Escobar. Long way off but stay tuned.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/12/ ... s-for-2017
2) I don't think it's as strong as it was when Cole, Taillon, Bell, Hansen and Polanco were headlining the system heading into the 2013, but I still do think it's top ten in baseball.
3) I agree with that and for a guy who works in Altoona, I should really take in more Curve games. However, I think we've gotten burnt on our excitement created by some of these reports in the past. The cold hard fact about prospects is few of them actually reach their ceiling and many of them flame out before they get to AAA let alone the majors. Look at Stetson Allie and probably Luis Heredia. Also remember our two months of ecstasy with Matt Curry in the SAL or when everyone begged me to put MDLC on the poll? Maybe one or, long shot, two of the players I noted as "Interesting" in answer 1) will even come close to their ceiling. The safe baseball prospects live a couple doors down from the Easter bunny!
We make our lists and pass our judgements, but honestly, anything can happen which is why the list from last year will look completely different than last years and why next year's will look different again. It also makes following player development in baseball more interesting than in any other sport as its so unpredictable. Players no one expected anything from early can become stars, and 18 year old world beaters who have movies made about them can have a 36% K rate and an OPS under .800 in the majors their second season. That's why it took until 1987 (22 players) for the first top overall pick to be elected in the hall of fame!
I think we're all a little more seasoned and maybe a touch more critical of prospects which might lead to your overall thoughts of the system. I know my player evaluations have gotten tougher and I'm a little less likely to assume that a player X is going to have Y career in the majors especially when they're still miles away from Pittsburgh particularly miles to the south. However, you can still look at ceilings and dream big while understanding that nothing is written in stone. Also keep in mind that there are a lot of guys further down the list that could also become contributors. I had Luis Heredia 3 and Jordy Mercer 21 in 2013. Whose the more interesting prospect now?
I really appreciate your thoughtful response. I wish I had time to dig much deeper in my reply, maybe this will make a good thread.
1) Anyway. When I think of "interesting", ceiling is certainly one definition, but not the best for me at least. I think of two types of prospects that I'm particularly interested in: a few are guys like Allie, that have a paticular tool that could change a team. Pedro was about power. Allie as well. Gotta hope (expect) the rest of their game is acceptable, but Garrett Jones served pretty well because he could hit the ball very far.
In the past, it seems to me, we've had guys that that special intrigue. Maybe we still do and I'm just not tuned in as much now.
But the more likely guy that "interest me" are those few guys who really do have he potential to be better that average (more than a replacement player). My Philosophy is pretty simple: if you don't have better players you probably won't win much.
This is key - the Pirates must produce a steady stream of these above average players. Take Mercer as an example. Bottom line id consider him more or less "average" (to be average in MLB is actually REALLY good, but you get the point). Jody works great because there are other players on the team that are or have potential to be above average. Jody can't create a hole, and I don't think he does.
But if Jody was in the system right now I'd appreciate him for what he is. I'd appreciate his potential to hold a position but J wouldn't see him as terribly "interesting".
Glasnow and Miller are truly interesting. Kingham is meat and potatoes. If he comes in and serves as a 4 he's got great value. If he winds up being our #2 I'm pretty worried - did he exceed expectations or do the Pirates simply have a hole? If Kingham is a legit #4 or 5 he had great value, but he's not the guy who can change the expectations of the team (generally, we'd expect a 4 or 5 to be easier to acquire).
I gotta run, but that's what I'm thinking of. Maybe they're there, but myself and others are unaware. That's point 3 and I'll try to get back to that point.
1) Do you disagree with my comment about the system being depleted compared compared to recent years or do you disagree with my comment about few interesting players past Hayes? Or both?
2) I know you follow the farm and I'd love to be wrong. Do you think the system is comparable to recent years?
3) Also, I miss the reports on prospects that use to be posted here regularly. I invite the posters that follow the farm fairly closely to post more often on prospects.
1) Both. When I hear interesting in context of prospects, I think most people are thinking high ceiling. If that's your definition of interesting, I don't think Hayes is actually that interesting. Maybe it's because I have his dad in my brain, but I think his most likely outcome if he becomes a major league regular is steady not spectacular. A lot of teams would take that at third. Of course, there are no guarantees he even gets there.
Using Sickels Top 20 as a guideline, where he had Hayes 6th, here are my thoughts on some guys past him.
- 7. Hearn - Might be the most interesting prospect in the system if he can stretch out. Then again, he might be a relief pitcher.
- 8. Kingham - Showed great resiliency early in his return. He could still be a middle of the rotation pitcher, maybe even a two.
- 10. Tucker - Sure, he posted "meh" numbers last year, but he was recovering a sometimes catastrophic surgery, was still young for his level and before his injury posted two months of a comparable if not better hit tool than Rafeal Devers.
- 11. Craig - Pirates have learned their lesson from Pedro Alvarez and it seems like they're focused on building up Craig's hit tool from the jump. Rough start numbers wise, but encouraging K% for a guy with above average raw power. Could become a complete hitter.
- 12. Garcia - big arm, still raw
- Any 2016 drafted prep pitcher and Luis Escobar. Long way off but stay tuned.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/12/ ... s-for-2017
2) I don't think it's as strong as it was when Cole, Taillon, Bell, Hansen and Polanco were headlining the system heading into the 2013, but I still do think it's top ten in baseball.
3) I agree with that and for a guy who works in Altoona, I should really take in more Curve games. However, I think we've gotten burnt on our excitement created by some of these reports in the past. The cold hard fact about prospects is few of them actually reach their ceiling and many of them flame out before they get to AAA let alone the majors. Look at Stetson Allie and probably Luis Heredia. Also remember our two months of ecstasy with Matt Curry in the SAL or when everyone begged me to put MDLC on the poll? Maybe one or, long shot, two of the players I noted as "Interesting" in answer 1) will even come close to their ceiling. The safe baseball prospects live a couple doors down from the Easter bunny!
We make our lists and pass our judgements, but honestly, anything can happen which is why the list from last year will look completely different than last years and why next year's will look different again. It also makes following player development in baseball more interesting than in any other sport as its so unpredictable. Players no one expected anything from early can become stars, and 18 year old world beaters who have movies made about them can have a 36% K rate and an OPS under .800 in the majors their second season. That's why it took until 1987 (22 players) for the first top overall pick to be elected in the hall of fame!
I think we're all a little more seasoned and maybe a touch more critical of prospects which might lead to your overall thoughts of the system. I know my player evaluations have gotten tougher and I'm a little less likely to assume that a player X is going to have Y career in the majors especially when they're still miles away from Pittsburgh particularly miles to the south. However, you can still look at ceilings and dream big while understanding that nothing is written in stone. Also keep in mind that there are a lot of guys further down the list that could also become contributors. I had Luis Heredia 3 and Jordy Mercer 21 in 2013. Whose the more interesting prospect now?
I really appreciate your thoughtful response. I wish I had time to dig much deeper in my reply, maybe this will make a good thread.
1) Anyway. When I think of "interesting", ceiling is certainly one definition, but not the best for me at least. I think of two types of prospects that I'm particularly interested in: a few are guys like Allie, that have a paticular tool that could change a team. Pedro was about power. Allie as well. Gotta hope (expect) the rest of their game is acceptable, but Garrett Jones served pretty well because he could hit the ball very far.
In the past, it seems to me, we've had guys that that special intrigue. Maybe we still do and I'm just not tuned in as much now.
But the more likely guy that "interest me" are those few guys who really do have he potential to be better that average (more than a replacement player). My Philosophy is pretty simple: if you don't have better players you probably won't win much.
This is key - the Pirates must produce a steady stream of these above average players. Take Mercer as an example. Bottom line id consider him more or less "average" (to be average in MLB is actually REALLY good, but you get the point). Jody works great because there are other players on the team that are or have potential to be above average. Jody can't create a hole, and I don't think he does.
But if Jody was in the system right now I'd appreciate him for what he is. I'd appreciate his potential to hold a position but J wouldn't see him as terribly "interesting".
Glasnow and Miller are truly interesting. Kingham is meat and potatoes. If he comes in and serves as a 4 he's got great value. If he winds up being our #2 I'm pretty worried - did he exceed expectations or do the Pirates simply have a hole? If Kingham is a legit #4 or 5 he had great value, but he's not the guy who can change the expectations of the team (generally, we'd expect a 4 or 5 to be easier to acquire).
I gotta run, but that's what I'm thinking of. Maybe they're there, but myself and others are unaware. That's point 3 and I'll try to get back to that point.
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OrlandoMerced
Who is the #4 prospect for 2017
When you say Miller do you mean Keller?
Out of the group of Kuhl, Brault, Williams and Kingham, I would put Kingham up there with Kuhl as most likely to hold down a rotation spot long term.
Out of the group of Kuhl, Brault, Williams and Kingham, I would put Kingham up there with Kuhl as most likely to hold down a rotation spot long term.
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ChitownBucco
- Posts: 492
- Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2016 9:10 pm
Who is the #4 prospect for 2017
How are Jose Osuna and Wily Garcia doing in winter ball?
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ChitownBucco
- Posts: 492
- Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2016 9:10 pm
Who is the #4 prospect for 2017
7853524F544C55794E5858543B0 wrote: How are Jose Osuna and Wily Garcia doing in winter ball?
wow I didn't even realize Garcia was DFA-ed and white sox picked him up
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/p ... ol-p3.html
wow I didn't even realize Garcia was DFA-ed and white sox picked him up
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/p ... ol-p3.html
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SammyKhalifa
- Posts: 3642
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:19 am
Who is the #4 prospect for 2017
5972736E756D74586F7979751A0 wrote: How are Jose Osuna and Wily Garcia doing in winter ball?
wow I didn't even realize Garcia was DFA-ed and white sox picked him up
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/p ... ol-p3.html
Yeah, not saying he'll amount to anything in the end, but it seems like there are other more "worthy" candidates on the roster to DFA
wow I didn't even realize Garcia was DFA-ed and white sox picked him up
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/p ... ol-p3.html
Yeah, not saying he'll amount to anything in the end, but it seems like there are other more "worthy" candidates on the roster to DFA
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rucker59@gmail.com
Who is the #4 prospect for 2017
0E332D202F252E0C2433222425410 wrote: When you say Miller do you mean Keller?
Out of the group of Kuhl, Brault, Williams and Kingham, I would put Kingham up there with Kuhl as most likely to hold down a rotation spot long term.
Yes. Thanks for the correction. I'm typing on the fly lately. To bad because I'd like to continue to explore the state of the farm.
Out of the group of Kuhl, Brault, Williams and Kingham, I would put Kingham up there with Kuhl as most likely to hold down a rotation spot long term.
Yes. Thanks for the correction. I'm typing on the fly lately. To bad because I'd like to continue to explore the state of the farm.