I like everything that has happened this week. Granted, I'm stunned. But I like it. Credit to NH.
I now believe the following:
Offense: Could be above average
Power: Could be average
Bullpen: Could be very good
Defense: I'm planning on above average
So, overall, all of that is pretty good.
That leaves what I believe will be the fatal flaw of this team ... starting pitching.
We simply don't have enough quality. We have nothing high-end, unless Taillon takes the next step.
We have quantity, and we have a wealth of average pitchers that I think most people would consider to be No. 4 or No. 5 starters.
That is simply not good enough. Plus, some of these guys will underperform, and some will have arm injuries. Those things will happen.
To go out every day with a No. 3-4-5 caliber starter -- and no studs -- is just not good enough ... not if your goal/your hope is to contend for a playoff spot.
Most of the playoff contenders have 1 or 2 starters who are stoppers, who they expect to go out and win, or at least pitch very well, every time they take the mound. That is a HUGE difference and a huge advantage.
The Pirates don't have that, and I believe it will be there downfall, their fatal flaw.
Revised Outlook
Moderators: SammyKhalifa, Doc, Bobster
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Bobster21
Revised Outlook
You could be right about the SP. They have no one who is established as an above average starter. On the other hand, other than Nova, no one has pitched enough to establish themselves as no better than what we've seen so far. Taillon has ace potential. Kuhl was impressive in both AA and AAA, has only 1.5 years experience in MLB and only last year found a high 90s FB. He seems to be an improving young pitcher. Ceiling? We don't know. Williams has less than 1 year experience in the rotation but led the starters in ERA and hits/IP ratio. No reason to think he's reached his ceiling. Musgrove is only 25 and has just 25 career starts. He did poorly as a starter but excelled in the BP. I don't know what to expect of him but with his young age and limited experience, it's too soon to think he can't improve. To what extent? We don't know.
So it's not as if they have 5 Ivan Nova's in the rotation with extensive bodies of work firmly establishing themselves as mediocre. What they have are Nova and 4 others who are young and have potential to be better than average. I have my doubts about Musgrove because, while it's a fairly SSS, his work as a starter has been disappointing. But I'm looking forward to seeing if Taillon, Kuhl and/or Williams evolve into quality pitchers.
So it's not as if they have 5 Ivan Nova's in the rotation with extensive bodies of work firmly establishing themselves as mediocre. What they have are Nova and 4 others who are young and have potential to be better than average. I have my doubts about Musgrove because, while it's a fairly SSS, his work as a starter has been disappointing. But I'm looking forward to seeing if Taillon, Kuhl and/or Williams evolve into quality pitchers.
Revised Outlook
705D50414657400003320 wrote: You could be right about the SP. They have no one who is established as an above average starter. On the other hand, other than Nova, no one has pitched enough to establish themselves as no better than what we've seen so far. Taillon has ace potential. Kuhl was impressive in both AA and AAA, has only 1.5 years experience in MLB and only last year found a high 90s FB. He seems to be an improving young pitcher. Ceiling? We don't know. Williams has less than 1 year experience in the rotation but led the starters in ERA and hits/IP ratio. No reason to think he's reached his ceiling. Musgrove is only 25 and has just 25 career starts. He did poorly as a starter but excelled in the BP. I don't know what to expect of him but with his young age and limited experience, it's too soon to think he can't improve. To what extent? We don't know.
So it's not as if they have 5 Ivan Nova's in the rotation with extensive bodies of work firmly establishing themselves as mediocre. What they have are Nova and 4 others who are young and have potential to be better than average. I have my doubts about Musgrove because, while it's a fairly SSS, his work as a starter has been disappointing. But I'm looking forward to seeing if Taillon, Kuhl and/or Williams evolve into quality pitchers.
I'm not feeling it in the starting pitching at all. Everyone, including Taillon will be slotted at least one spot ahead of what they should. JT could be a true one down the road, but to me he is a two; Nova is a three, not a two and so on. We have three fives to me. There was no upgrade in the rotation. Bullpen could be good if they remain healthy and throw strikes (Feliz has a problem with this). With Feliz and even Crick, are they the second coming of Archimedes Camminero or will they be better?
Lineup - Dickerson helps this a lot. However, even with his inclusion, we are still bottom five in power. Can't afford a sophomore slump by Bell. Need big time rebounds from Polanco and Marte ... need Cervelli to do something.
So it's not as if they have 5 Ivan Nova's in the rotation with extensive bodies of work firmly establishing themselves as mediocre. What they have are Nova and 4 others who are young and have potential to be better than average. I have my doubts about Musgrove because, while it's a fairly SSS, his work as a starter has been disappointing. But I'm looking forward to seeing if Taillon, Kuhl and/or Williams evolve into quality pitchers.
I'm not feeling it in the starting pitching at all. Everyone, including Taillon will be slotted at least one spot ahead of what they should. JT could be a true one down the road, but to me he is a two; Nova is a three, not a two and so on. We have three fives to me. There was no upgrade in the rotation. Bullpen could be good if they remain healthy and throw strikes (Feliz has a problem with this). With Feliz and even Crick, are they the second coming of Archimedes Camminero or will they be better?
Lineup - Dickerson helps this a lot. However, even with his inclusion, we are still bottom five in power. Can't afford a sophomore slump by Bell. Need big time rebounds from Polanco and Marte ... need Cervelli to do something.
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CarolinaBucco
Revised Outlook
When prediction time rolls around, the starting pitching is definitely the reason why I'll be picking this team to finish with a losing record.
Revised Outlook
Having 4 young starters in the rotation is certainly the big unknown with this team. No telling what kind of season each of Taillon, Kuhl, Musgrove and Williams will have let alone how they will do collectively as a staff (or even if they'll keep their places in the rotation). We could catch a little magic and have our starting pitching be a strength or it could be a trainwreck. Most likely something in between.
Even with the addition of Dickerson I think the Pirates will really struggle to be an average power team, and consequently I can't envision them being better than average offensively at best . On the other hand I think there's enough talent to prevent them from being a poor offensive club. I see a low ceiling/high floor offensive potential.
The bullpen looks strong. They may have to be if the starters trend more toward trainwreck than magic.
Defensively I have concerns about Moran, Polanco and Dickerson. Marte, Harrison and Mercer should be pluses while Bell and Cervelli should be about league average. I don't think the Pirates will be winning or losing a lot of games based on their defense. About average or with some luck slightly above.
Even with the addition of Dickerson I think the Pirates will really struggle to be an average power team, and consequently I can't envision them being better than average offensively at best . On the other hand I think there's enough talent to prevent them from being a poor offensive club. I see a low ceiling/high floor offensive potential.
The bullpen looks strong. They may have to be if the starters trend more toward trainwreck than magic.
Defensively I have concerns about Moran, Polanco and Dickerson. Marte, Harrison and Mercer should be pluses while Bell and Cervelli should be about league average. I don't think the Pirates will be winning or losing a lot of games based on their defense. About average or with some luck slightly above.
Revised Outlook
Even with the acquisition of Dickerson this is still a below average offense. I'm certainly glad they picked him up but I don't think he alone is enough. There are still too many question marks. I can still see this team only having 2 regulars with 20+ HR's. They don't walk enough either.
Revised Outlook
I can kind of agree with this, but I actually have a better outlook on the rotation than the rest of the team. That's the one area I was kind of confident in, even after Cole was traded.
I think Taillon, Nova, Kuhl, and Williams are probably all locks to make the rotation. Brault and Glasnow battle for the last spot. Certainly, you could upgrade over any of these guys. If these guys were on a pennant-caliber rotation, Taillon is probably a 2-3, Nova a 3-4, and the rest are 5's or long relievers. But, I think there is upside here. Glasnow can still be a dominant MLB starter, I think. Williams had a nice breakout year last year. As others have noted, Kuhl showed some promise last year. Ditto with Brault.
Honestly, I don't know who out there would be a tangible upgrade over any of these guys. I agree with others that Arrieta is starting to decline, and it may be steep. Lynn...meh. Most Cards fans I know are glad he's gone. He was an enigma for them. There's a reason they coined the term "Lynning" in Cardinal-land. I could get on board with Alex Cobb, but is he anything more than a marginal upgrade? Someone else said he maybe takes us from a 76 win team to 78. Ehh...if that's the case, who cares? See what the kids can do.
Edit...Sorry...forgot all about Musgrove. I've got to believe he's also got a rotation spot all sown up. I doubt they trade for the guy without planning to give him the ball every fifth day. So, we're probably looking at:
Taillon
Nova
Musgrove
Williams
Kuhl
Brault and Glasnow could sneak in there as well.
I think Taillon, Nova, Kuhl, and Williams are probably all locks to make the rotation. Brault and Glasnow battle for the last spot. Certainly, you could upgrade over any of these guys. If these guys were on a pennant-caliber rotation, Taillon is probably a 2-3, Nova a 3-4, and the rest are 5's or long relievers. But, I think there is upside here. Glasnow can still be a dominant MLB starter, I think. Williams had a nice breakout year last year. As others have noted, Kuhl showed some promise last year. Ditto with Brault.
Honestly, I don't know who out there would be a tangible upgrade over any of these guys. I agree with others that Arrieta is starting to decline, and it may be steep. Lynn...meh. Most Cards fans I know are glad he's gone. He was an enigma for them. There's a reason they coined the term "Lynning" in Cardinal-land. I could get on board with Alex Cobb, but is he anything more than a marginal upgrade? Someone else said he maybe takes us from a 76 win team to 78. Ehh...if that's the case, who cares? See what the kids can do.
Edit...Sorry...forgot all about Musgrove. I've got to believe he's also got a rotation spot all sown up. I doubt they trade for the guy without planning to give him the ball every fifth day. So, we're probably looking at:
Taillon
Nova
Musgrove
Williams
Kuhl
Brault and Glasnow could sneak in there as well.