OnlyBucs

OK...haven't posted on here in forever, but here goes...



Obviously, this year was disappointing for all. 78-83-1 is way below expectations. That said, I think there is ample reason to be optimistic going into next year. Obviously, the rotation needs work, but I do think the makings of a good lineup are there. Everyone had a down year this year. Many of them were hidden due to all of the focus being on Cutch's decline. But, after a stellar first half, Marte was rather pedestrian in the second half. Cervelli had a down year. Harrison had a down year. Kang was OK, but took a step back defensively, I felt, as well as with the bat. Plus, he was injured, and investigated for rape. Jaso wasn't very good.



On the rotation side of things, Cole had a down year, Liriano was terrible, Niese was bad, Glasnow was bad, Locke was awful, Vogelsong wasn't very good, Nicasio was a disaster. Taillon and Nova were fine, but that's about it.



In the bullpen, we had a lot of woes. But, looking ahead to next year...



C--Cervelli can easily have a bounce back year

1B--I think Bell plays all year there. I actually didn't mind Jaso, but Bell is a big upgrade with the stick at least

2B--My guess is Harrison is traded in the offseason and Frazier steps in admirably

SS--Mercer actually had a pretty good year, but I could see him being moved in the offseason as well, with Newman, and eventually Tucker, waiting in the wings.

3B--A full year of Kang, hopefully removed from legal trouble, will be a nice boost

LF--I'm going to put Marte here for the time being. I realize he and McCutchen could swap roles, but regardless, I think Marte has a better year next year as well. Specifically, I think he get back to hitting for more power.

CF--McCutchen--what a difference a year makes! Seven months ago, I was being ridiculed for saying that it was too early to worry about extending him. Now people are talking about trading him. My guess is that this year was a temporary aberration. I don't think he'll ever be his 27 year old self again, but I think we can expect .280/25/90 from him next year. He's still young enough that he should be close to peak. If I'm NH, I keep him, and hope he turns it around. He either keeps you in contention, or you flip him at the deadline if you're out of it.

RF--Polanco also has room for improvement.



Bench:

Stewart

Freese

Florimon (?)

Rodriguez (any chance they bring him back? I have to believe he played himself into a starting role somewhere)

Obviously, Frazier goes here if Harrison isn't traded



Rotation:

Cole (big bounce-back candidate)

Taillon

Kuhl

Glasnow (I predict he gets a rotation spot out of ST)

Up for grabs (Brault, Williams, Hutchison, FA, trade?)



Bullpen:

Watson (another major bounce back candidate)

Rivero

Nicasio

a bunch of open spots, but I'm still old school (old, as in early 2000s thought) that the BP should be the last thing you worry about. The Giants implosion, and the Royals winning notwithstanding, reliever always have been, are, and always will be, fungible. Aside from the true great ones, guys are up and down.



Long and the short of it though is this...as it stands RIGHT NOW, this team can contend for a WC spot again. I truly believe that this team played WAY below their capability. I can think of quite a few games just off the top of my head that should have been W's, but were L's. For instance:



June 5 against the Angels (blew a 5-1 lead in the 7th inning)

June 8 against the Mets (blew a 5-3 lead in the 8th inning)

June 10 against the Cards (blew a 2-0 lead in the 8th inning, plus, this was after having that one game road series in Denver)

June 22 against the Giants (blew a 6-1 lead in the 4th inning)

June 27 agasint the Dodgers (blew a 4-0 lead [and 4-1 going into the 5th inning])

August 29 agains the Cubs (blew a 6-3 lead in the 8th inning...this also stopped a four game winning streak, and really killed some good momentum we had...I think we were half a game out of the 2nd WC and even in the loss column at the time)

September 6 against the Cards (blew a 6-5 lead in the 9th inning)

September 25 against the Nats (blew a 7-5 lead in the 8th inning)



Now, I realize we had some come from behind wins ourselves (quite a few actually, but I'm trying to paint a rosy picture here...bear with me! ;D). But, if you flip these 8 games, we're 86-75, and needing to finish the 1-1 tie with the Cubs.



I also know every team could theoretically do this. But, my bigger point is that we don't need to burn the entire thing down and start over. Like most, I want to see some meaningful action done this offseason. I think we have a solid core, but that solid core isn't getting any younger. We have a lot of good young players on the way to hopefully replace them at some point, but the resources are there to make a move.



I HATED the Liriano trade, not so much for this year, but for next year. I would love to have a guy with Liriano's stuff to slot in to the #5 spot in the rotation.

Wow...never had a post go over the character limit before. Something with the new site? No worries...just curious.



Anyway, I loathed the Liriano trade. But, you can't change the past. What's done is done. I hope they reallocate those funds to improving the big league club. This fanbase is so hungry! Personally, I don't think the "window" is going to close any time soon. To compete in MLB, you need a couple of stars (Cutch, Marte, Polanco, Meadows on the way), a couple of good pitchers (Cole, Taillon, hopefully Glasnow), and a bunch of other guys who won't kill you. With the exception of the Cubs, I don't look at any of the playoff teams and think to myself, "Wow. They are SO much better than the Pirates!" I, for one, can't wait for 2017!

The lineup remains pretty solid as long as some players bounce back. It's not as if we're expecting anyone to do more than he's proven he can do. Bell's bat will be a nice addition for a full season. Watson needs to be more consistent as well. The 2 main issues this year were unexpectedly bad years from proven players and the starting rotation. So if Cole, Cutch, Cervelli, Harrison and Watson rebound, that still leaves the rotation as an issue. Assuming Cole rebounds, Taillon will be solid and Kuhl should be respectable. We still don't know if Glasnow is ready for prime time. And the 5th spot is unresolved. All of which, in a best case scenario, points to a better record but still not enough starting pitching to challenge for the division.

1E333E2F28392E6E6D5C0 wrote: The lineup remains pretty solid as long as some players bounce back. It's not as if we're expecting anyone to do more than he's proven he can do. Bell's bat will be a nice addition for a full season. Watson needs to be more consistent as well. The 2 main issues this year were unexpectedly bad years from proven players and the starting rotation. So if Cole, Cutch, Cervelli, Harrison and Watson rebound, that still leaves the rotation as an issue. Assuming Cole rebounds, Taillon will be solid and Kuhl should be respectable. We still don't know if Glasnow is ready for prime time. And the 5th spot is unresolved. All of which, in a best case scenario, points to a better record but still not enough starting pitching to challenge for the division.


I don't disagree with any of this.  Personally, I think the goal for the next few years should be the WC, sadly.  I just don't see us competing with the Cubs.  I look at that team, and frankly, it's an All-Star team.



Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Soler, Arrieta, Lester, Hendricks, Chapman...and you haven't even gotten to their "role" players like Fowler, Schwarber, and Heyward.  I think our best shot is getting to the WC game, winning it, and taking our shots against them in a best of five. (Yes, I do think Chapman resigns with the Cubs.)

61696A5D4B6E4946280 wrote: The lineup remains pretty solid as long as some players bounce back. It's not as if we're expecting anyone to do more than he's proven he can do. Bell's bat will be a nice addition for a full season. Watson needs to be more consistent as well. The 2 main issues this year were unexpectedly bad years from proven players and the starting rotation. So if Cole, Cutch, Cervelli, Harrison and Watson rebound, that still leaves the rotation as an issue. Assuming Cole rebounds, Taillon will be solid and Kuhl should be respectable. We still don't know if Glasnow is ready for prime time. And the 5th spot is unresolved. All of which, in a best case scenario, points to a better record but still not enough starting pitching to challenge for the division.


I don't disagree with any of this.  Personally, I think the goal for the next few years should be the WC, sadly.  I just don't see us competing with the Cubs.  I look at that team, and frankly, it's an All-Star team.



Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Soler, Arrieta, Lester, Hendricks, Chapman...and you haven't even gotten to their "role" players like Fowler, Schwarber, and Heyward.  I think our best shot is getting to the WC game, winning it, and taking our shots against them in a best of five.  (Yes, I do think Chapman resigns with the Cubs.)
Don't know if you saw a previous post but I noted last week that the Cubs committed 280+ million to sign Heyward, Zobrist, Chapman, Lackey and Fowler while the Pirates traded Liriano and 2 top prospects just to free up enough money to extend Freese. Not exactly an equal playing field.

4E636E7F78697E3E3D0C0 wrote: The lineup remains pretty solid as long as some players bounce back. It's not as if we're expecting anyone to do more than he's proven he can do. Bell's bat will be a nice addition for a full season. Watson needs to be more consistent as well. The 2 main issues this year were unexpectedly bad years from proven players and the starting rotation. So if Cole, Cutch, Cervelli, Harrison and Watson rebound, that still leaves the rotation as an issue. Assuming Cole rebounds, Taillon will be solid and Kuhl should be respectable. We still don't know if Glasnow is ready for prime time. And the 5th spot is unresolved. All of which, in a best case scenario, points to a better record but still not enough starting pitching to challenge for the division.


I don't disagree with any of this.  Personally, I think the goal for the next few years should be the WC, sadly.  I just don't see us competing with the Cubs.  I look at that team, and frankly, it's an All-Star team.



Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Soler, Arrieta, Lester, Hendricks, Chapman...and you haven't even gotten to their "role" players like Fowler, Schwarber, and Heyward.  I think our best shot is getting to the WC game, winning it, and taking our shots against them in a best of five.  (Yes, I do think Chapman resigns with the Cubs.)
Don't know if you saw a previous post but I noted last week that the Cubs committed 280+ million to sign Heyward, Zobrist, Chapman, Lackey and Fowler while the Pirates traded Liriano and 2 top prospects just to free up enough money to extend Freese. Not exactly an equal playing field.




No, I didn't see that. Definitely not an equal playing field. Somehow, baseball needs to address this, I believe. I know Jayson Stark writes an article at the beginning of each year detailing how much parity there is in baseball, there is still the case of the haves vs. the have-nots. I've long said that baseball salaries are extremely out of whack with the rest of the world (heck, even the rest of professional sports). But, they are what they are. And, if you want to be competitive, you have to be willing to pay them.



This year's FA class is pretty thin (at least where we have legitimate needs, namely, starting pitching). But, we've got to do something...I don't know about a trade. I was thinking maybe Ervin Santana would be a good target.

The Yankees think they are getting Chapman back as a free agent. Should make for an interesting negotiation.

4042585E482D0 wrote: The Yankees think they are getting Chapman back as a free agent. Should make for an interesting negotiation.


He is going to go to a playoff team in the offseason. A lot will depend on how he does in this playoff run. If he self destructs, he will lose a lot of money. So far, though, so good.

Atta boy IABucFan! This is what I've (we've) missed.



The pitching side needs some serious attention and I think the brass knows it. We have to find a veteran starter somewhere that we can rely on to be consistent and to at least eat innings. Taillon is about to get much better I believe. I was very impressed with him.



For me a lot about trying to think positive has to do with Cole. While I can buy into the turn-around thoughts for much of the team (and I'm one that thinks Cutch is going to have a really good year), Cole has to establish himself as a force. In some ways, he never has. Maybe he's not the #1 we all hoped for, but he's got to stay off the DL and give us solid #2 innings all year long.



And while the bullpen is fungible, NH has to show some of the magic he's shown before and put together a really good one. Getting a better bullpen is a must.



Pitching, pitching, pitching. I don't think we'll see the 'meh' kind of off season we have in the past. NH has to pull some pitching rabbits out of the hat whether through FA, or through trades.

1233262F172E35263322470 wrote:



Pitching, pitching, pitching. I don't think we'll see the 'meh' kind of off season we have in the past. NH has to pull some pitching rabbits out of the hat whether through FA, or through trades.
I'll be surprised if this off season is much better than last. We all know this org operates on a shoestring budget by MLB standards and NH already said they will operate with a tight budget next year. And the FA pitching market is thin anyway. So even if they pick up a FA starter from a thin list on a small budget, it won't be an impact pitcher. They also don't like to trade prospects (unless it's to save money) and if they were willing to part with prospects for a good pitcher, that pitcher would probably have a contract inconsistent with a tight budget. I think they have looked to 2017 as a year the rotation would be inexpensive with players like Taillon, Kuhl and Glasnow in addition to Cole. But Glasnow may not be ready and so the 5th if not both 4th and 5th slots may yet need to be filled. All we know is that they won't be filled by expensive pitchers.