OnlyBucs

We have won four straight. Now it's time for a real run! BTW,

did I correctly hear that Kuhl hit 100 mph in his last start? I guess he's not a finesse pitcher after all!

It's just unbelievable the Central is so down.  But it is and the Pirates hace got to take advantage of this opportunity by winning a lot of series with occasional sweeps thrown in.  Tonight would be a huge sweep. 



What a crazy situation if mid-July the Pirates are sit on or near the top - what does Neal do at trade deadline?

I haven't posted on here regularly lately for a number of reasons, but here's my two cents.



So much depends on so many other factors. To be frank, we should really be leading the division right now. I realize every team has bad losses, but I can think of four just off the top of my head that really should have been in the win column: Red Sox, Dodgers, and two against the Orioles. I was out of the country with no internet access when we played Baltimore, and it's probably for the best. I probably would have thrown a brick through my TV or something, especially after the second game. These four are all games where we blew leads in the 8th or 9th innings. That doesn't even count going 1-6 against the Reds, losing three straight 2-1 games in STL, or losing 1-0 to the Flubs with the only run scoring on a throwing error from your second baseman.



But still, even though those games easily could have, probably should have, been in the W column, they all wound up in the L column. I don't think the Cubs are this bad, though they clearly are not the same team they were last year. I think the Cards really are down. I also don't think the Brewers are this "good," if that's the adjective you want to use to describe them being in first place because the rules dictate that someone has to be in first place, even if no team really deserves to be in first place. But, we've got about six weeks left until the trade deadline. We're guaranteed of getting an All-Star caliber player back at the deadline (who won't be eligible for the playoffs should we sneak in), but nevertheless, we will have Marte back in the middle of the order for the last half of the season.



That said, if we are still in contention, it wouldn't shock me to see NH try to pull off a deal for an outfielder. Things have kind of stabilized from early in the year. Freese-Mercer-Harrison/Frazier-Bell is solid. But I'm still nervous about Marte not being eligible for the postseason, should we qualify.



That said, as far as I'm concerned, Diaz is my catcher, even when Cervelli returns. I like Cervelli, but personally, I just think Diaz brings so much more to the table, not the least of which is his arm in controlling the running game. It's a high comparison, but I kind of see some of Yadi in Diaz's game.



Someone asked the question of whether or not Marte goes back to center when he's back. For me, no. He hurt the team with his selfishness and that alone should relegate him back to left. But the bigger issue for me is that should we by some fluke actually win this division, Cutch will need to play center in the playoffs, again, due to Marte's lack of judgment. So, he needs the reps there.



I think we are still one good starting pitcher away from a solid rotation. Nova has been great. Taillon has been great. Cole can be great, but can also implode. I'm not at all confident when Kuhl, Glasnow, or Williams take the mound. One more pitcher gives us a solid rotation.



Bottom line...I'm not convinced. This little run has been fun, and it's nice to look at the standings and only see 3.5 in the GB column, but at the end of the day, this isn't a very good team. If they had JHK and Marte for 150 games, then, yeah, I'd say this is as good a team as any in the division. But they don't. Harrison, Frazier, Bell, Osuna, Diaz, and Freese have filled in admirably. But those aren't star-caliber players. That's what you need to win the WS. You need some role players, but we have a whole team of them. I think some of those guys have the POTENTIAL to develop into stars, but they aren't there yet.

0E06053224012629470 wrote: I haven't posted on here regularly lately for a number of reasons, but here's my two cents.



So much depends on so many other factors.  To be frank, we should really be leading the division right now.  I realize every team has bad losses, but I can think of four just off the top of my head that really should have been in the win column:  Red Sox, Dodgers, and two against the Orioles.  I was out of the country with no internet access when we played Baltimore, and it's probably for the best.  I probably would have thrown a brick through my TV or something, especially after the second game.  These four are all games where we blew leads in the 8th or 9th innings.  That doesn't even count going 1-6 against the Reds, losing three straight 2-1 games in STL, or losing 1-0 to the Flubs with the only run scoring on a throwing error from your second baseman.



But still, even though those games easily could have, probably should have, been in the W column, they all wound up in the L column.  I don't think the Cubs are this bad, though they clearly are not the same team they were last year.  I think the Cards really are down.  I also don't think the Brewers are this "good," if that's the adjective you want to use to describe them being in first place because the rules dictate that someone has to be in first place, even if no team really deserves to be in first place.  But, we've got about six weeks left until the trade deadline.  We're guaranteed of getting an All-Star caliber player back at the deadline (who won't be eligible for the playoffs should we sneak in), but nevertheless, we will have Marte back in the middle of the order for the last half of the season.



That said, if we are still in contention, it wouldn't shock me to see NH try to pull off a deal for an outfielder.  Things have kind of stabilized from early in the year.  Freese-Mercer-Harrison/Frazier-Bell is solid.  But I'm still nervous about Marte not being eligible for the postseason, should we qualify.



That said, as far as I'm concerned, Diaz is my catcher, even when Cervelli returns.  I like Cervelli, but personally, I just think Diaz brings so much more to the table, not the least of which is his arm in controlling the running game.  It's a high comparison, but I kind of see some of Yadi in Diaz's game.



Someone asked the question of whether or not Marte goes back to center when he's back.  For me, no.  He hurt the team with his selfishness and that alone should relegate him back to left.  But the bigger issue for me is that should we by some fluke actually win this division, Cutch will need to play center in the playoffs, again, due to Marte's lack of judgment.  So, he needs the reps there.



I think we are still one good starting pitcher away from a solid rotation.  Nova has been great.  Taillon has been great.  Cole can be great, but can also implode.  I'm not at all confident when Kuhl, Glasnow, or Williams take the mound.  One more pitcher gives us a solid rotation.



Bottom line...I'm not convinced.  This little run has been fun, and it's nice to look at the standings and only see 3.5 in the GB column, but at the end of the day, this isn't a very good team.  If they had JHK and Marte for 150 games, then, yeah, I'd say this is as good a team as any in the division.  But they don't.  Harrison, Frazier, Bell, Osuna, Diaz, and Freese have filled in admirably.  But those aren't star-caliber players.  That's what you need to win the WS.  You need some role players, but we have a whole team of them.  I think some of those guys have the POTENTIAL to develop into stars, but they aren't there yet.




Agree with about everything you wrote, especially that's it's good you were out of the country during the Baltimore series. 



I agree about Center Field.  In fact, if the team should be winning I'd probably leave Marte on the bench most games.  Let him think about a lot of stuff he needs to think about.



And of course I'd like to see another SP.  but the reality is any acquisition is unlike to be much if any improvement over what's currently available.



As you said, even if we make the playoffs as division winner this is not a WS team.  But the possibility of winning the division does change a lot of consideration.



I figured by June the Cubs would have corrected whatever their problems are and be in process of running away with the division. Well it's June 12 and they're still sitting with a .500 team.  So maybe the unthinkable us possible - maybe the Pirates could win this suddenly awful Central. A month ago there was no way the Pirates could make the playoffs - zero chance at either the division or WC.  But in the Pirates are contending for the division after the all start break what does Neal do? 



Trading any value always made sense to me.  Still does I think, but if the Pirates could actually win the division could the Pirates be buyers rather than sellers? 



Huge question that will impact this team long term.   

This upcoming weekend is the time to make a statement.



Bucs are playing the Cubs at PNC. Winning the series, or perhaps the unthinkable (or unachievable) a sweep, and all of sudden there is hope.



A couple of other thoughts:



1) I have been clamoring for the Bucs to obtain another outfielder since the start of the season. With the emergence of Frazier as a real outfield option, and the pending return of Marte, I wouldn't pursue acquisition of another outfielder at this point unless one of Cutch, Marte or Polanco is traded. That said, NH should still be searching for a better 'reserve' outfielder than Ortiz that can be stashed in the minors.



2) While Diaz let's a few plays get by him, I agree that he needs to see regular playing time even with the return of Cervelli. At present, I would play Cervelli and Diaz about equal amounts, which may help Cervelli to stay healthy and productive, and if the season goes south in the next 30 days, I look to move Cervelli for future help.



3) If the team remains competitive I go with what the team has in the infield. Jaso/Osuna/Freese can all play first and back-up Bell, and Frazier/Mercer/Harrison/Freese and perhaps even Moroff can shift around the infield as needed. That said, sure would be nice to get Kang back for a potential shot in the arm. Doubt it happens. Too bad he's not in North Korea so the Bucs could work through Dennis Rodman to negotiate his return to the U.S.



4) The starting rotation could be okay, but I believe it also could implode. Expecting Tallion to pitch well and to go deep into games likely is asking and hoping for too much Unbelievable that he was back and able to hold the Rockies scoreless). Was this week's start the rebirth of Cole, or is now more like Locke (I good game interspersed among 1 bad and 1 mediocre start). Is Nova really this good? I am actually feeling pretty good about Kuhl, and if he can't make it as a starter, he could be the pitcher who shores up the pen. Williams likely is an okay #5 (if other pitchers are performing). I also question if the Pirates could pay the (trade/talent) cost of a decent starter. If they do need to go get someone, Volquez looks like a potential option.



5) The pen. I believe the Bucs need help if they decide that they are in the hunt. Rivero has been outstanding (but he's likely to hit some bumps), Nicassio has generally been good (but I don't see him performing this well through-out the season, and Hurdle often yanks him if he runs into trouble), and LeBlanc is an okay innings eater. Watson is a real question mark at this point, and perhaps Hudson can be a contributor, but the likes of Marinez, Santana, Shugel et al doesn't instill much confidence. While I have no thoughts on who to obtain, it would be good to have another dependable arm for the 7th - 9th. I also understand that many other teams are going to be looking for the same and that the cost would be high.

I just watched Moneyball (again) the other night. In the movie, they wanted to be 7 games back by mid-July. If they were at that point, they thought they could make the Playoffs. Of course, they went on and set a record of consecutive wins in a row. But still thinking they had a shot at 7 games back in mid-July is interesting (if true, of course).



I still think there is plenty of time to find out if the Pirates are buyers or sellers. They have to be in a decent spot when Marte returns to be true buyers.



I have to think McCutchen will still be shopped and so will Watson. That could be big blows to the chances this year. It is kind of like 2016 when they were still in the hunt but no one really thought they could make a true run.

6B474F484364534555260 wrote:

5)  The pen.  I believe the Bucs need help if they decide that they are in the hunt.  Rivero has been outstanding (but he's likely to hit some bumps), Nicassio has generally been good (but I don't see him performing this well through-out the season, and Hurdle often yanks him if he runs into trouble), and LeBlanc is an okay innings eater.  Watson is a real question mark at this point, and perhaps Hudson can be a contributor, but the likes of Marinez, Santana, Shugel et al doesn't instill much confidence.   While I have no thoughts on who to obtain, it would be good to have another dependable arm for the 7th - 9th.   I also understand that many other teams are going to be looking for the same and that the cost would be high.       




I think the pen has been considerably better once the Brass decided to make the decision of removing Watson from the closer role (and pulled Glasnow as a starter). Marinez has been a whole lot better than Barbato and Bastardo. He's not great, but he is more consistent. And I think you are wrong about Santana. He is pitching in the majors for the first time and I think once he learns a little more about pitching at this level, he has the pitches to be a really effective reliever. Schugel was OK for us last year and hopefully he'll be the same this year. The key for me is having Hudson find himself to some degree. If he can do that, I really think this bullpen will be fine. Oh, and Watson is gone at the deadline (for a couple of A+ level long shots if necessary). For the second half, I think we need another starter pretty bad. I'm hoping for the Happ/Nova discovery. Neither cost us much at the time. Keep the bats rolling, tighten up the starting rotation and let's see what happens.

Reasons that I am optimistic:

1) they have played terrible and have blown 6 games and are still in it

2) Marte coming back should give them a good push

3) I believe Cutch is back to at least a good player level

4) They have 3 strong pitchers in the rotation

5) I think a Cervelli/Diaz platoon can really help the production from the catcher

6) There is not great pitching in the division and that should keep the team in it.

7) Polanco can't be this bad all year, can he?



Reasons for doubt:

1) The team is mentally weak. Too many lack of focus plays result in runs or additional outs.

2) Frazier has been solid but is likely to adjust down over the second half

3) Nicasio and Rivero are great but I don't have faith in Watson, Hudson, Santana in the 7th

4) They have two 5th starters in Kuhl and Williams

5) The Cubs could get hot

6) Polanco is going to be this bad all year.



Realistically, for the Pirates to win, I think Taillon, Nova and Cole have to be great and Cutch has to play like an MVP for the rest of the year.