OnlyBucs

Since the end of the season I have been consumed by the Bucs' lack of power. This weekend I did a little study on what our power shortage is likely costing us. Listed below is a chart of 2017 HR numbers by teams in the Central Division:



Team 2017 Rec 2017 HR 2015 HR %Increase

Cubs 92-70 223 171 30%

Milw 86-76 224 145 54%

STL 83-79 196 137 43%

PIT 75-87 151 140 8%

Cin 70-92 219 167 31%



Key Points--

1. The last thing I discovered in my review, but the first thing I will point out, is how much our divisional rivals have increased their power in just 2 seasons compared to the Bucs.

2. It surprised me that the Bucs actually hit 11 more HR in 2017 than in 2015, when they won 98 games.

3. The Cardinals only hit 137 HR in 2015 when they won 100 games.



The next chart shows the impact of W/L records to HR hit per game:



Team 2017 Records by game with:

0 or 1HR 2or>HR 1or>HR Win%

Cubs 43-55 49-15 77-37 .675

Milw 42-53 44-23 73-53 .579

STL 50-62 33-17 65-51 .560

PIT 46-82 29-5 59-42 .584

Cin 34-63 36-29 55-60 .478



1. When hitting 0 or 1 HR per game, each team had a losing record.

2. When hitting 2 or more HR, each team had a winning record. While 3 teams had more than 60 multi-HR games, and the Cards had 50, the Bucs only did so 34 times. On the positive side, no team made more of their 2HR games than the Bucs, who had a stellar .853 W/L%.

3. Finally, I backtracked and listed each team's record in games they hit at least one HR. The Bucs ranked second, winning at a .584 clip.



In summary, this study led to two obvious points: 1) The incredible power gap that has developed between the Bucs and the rest of the Division, and 2) the undeniable significance of home runs to winning. You may say but what about the Reds? Well, the Reds had a 13-6 record versus the Bucs in 2017. They were 10-1 in games they homered and 3-5 in games which they didn't homer.



My guess is the Bucs may have had another 25 HR or more in 2017 had Kang played, and Marte and Polanco played more. Hopefully, those two will produce more power in 2018, and we will find an infielder to replace Kang's HR production.



I also found the Bucs were 36-18 in one run games in 2015 and were 19-24 in 2017. While pitching surely factored into to some degree, I imagine many of those games were lost on opponent long-balls while we were straining to string together 3 singles.



Naturally, there are numerous ways to analyze, interpret, or argue some of these numbers. And I didn't touch on the impact of pitching, on-base percentage, stadiums, etc, etc. But bottom line there is a power arms race going on within the division (and most of baseball). If not, why have the Cardinals prioritized adding a middle-of-the-order slugger to a lineup that already increased its power 43% in two years? In 2017 every team in the Central Division homered in at least 13 more games than the Bucs and each had at least 16 more multi-HR games.



The Pirates don't have to have the most power in the Division but they must find a way to significantly close the gap. Sorry for the long post, but I figured you may be in the small subset of people who found this info of interest.

I think you are exactly right on this. Somehow the team has to hit close to 200 homers to compete on offense.



It is going to be difficult with Mercer and Cervelli in lineup. Current players at third aren't going to help much.



If Adam Frazier plays a lot he gets categorized with Cervelli and Mercer as a power shortage. That is why I think for this season he isn't that valuable of a player on offense unless he gets a very high on base percentage (370 at a minimum).



out of current players, Polanco, Bell, Marte and Cutch all need to hit 25 (hopefully average 30 among the four) or over for Bucs to have a chance to come close to 200 homers.



The odds are pretty high against that.

Seeing HRs hit and especially multi-run HRs is great reading and chest pounding stuff.



But in my mind the most important stat is not total HRs but total wins. Hey you need some power to win games but it is not necessary to lead the league or even the division to produce a winning and hopefully a playoff contending record.



Perhaps pitching, defense, speed, obp can produce runs and thus wins as well. If not much power these stats must be much better than average.

1C3D351C373F580 wrote: Seeing HRs hit and especially multi-run HRs is great reading and chest pounding stuff.



But in my mind the most important stat is not total HRs but total wins.  Hey you need some power to win games but it is not necessary to lead the league or even the division to produce a winning and hopefully a playoff contending record. 



Perhaps pitching, defense, speed, obp can produce runs and thus wins as well.  If not much power these stats must be much better than average. 


Possum is right but I don't think the Pirates can excel in enough other categories to make up the difference.

Sadly, power is just one of many areas where the Pirates lack exceptional talent. In fact I think only Rivero, their closer, currently falls into the high-end talent category. Perhaps if we're lucky Taillon and Bell might get there in the future, but the Pirates roster consists mostly of average to good players who as a team don't excel in any of the power, speed, defense, pitching, or obp categories.

MLB HRs decreased from 2013 to 2014 but increased each year since. Pirate HRs decreased from 2014 to 2015, increased in 2016 and decreased in 2017. So they are "Buc-ing" the trend of increasing HRs yearly. Last year there was talk the ball might be livelier to explain the HR increase throughout MLB. The Pirates hit 2 fewer than the year before. Losing Kang and not replacing him obviously hurt. What's amazing is that they didn't even try to fill needs last year. Not for power. Not even for a 4th outfielder.

They aren't trying to fill needs this year either.   NH said he was good with Freese and S-Rod at Piratesfest, from what I've read



The faster the organization gives NH his walking papers, the better off we will be.   He's totally lost it.  Last year was an embarrassment

This years team is going to suck  ;D



They haven`t won anything with the guys they have been trotting out there the last 6 years. Those playoff years are a sham too, we were in the playoffs once ...Play in games are crap and dont count as playoffs. Never won a division.



The window is closed get max value for Cutch , Cole (he doesnt like it here anyway) and the other guy Marte....I WILL GIVE Polonco one more year.



Blow it up except for a few ....Bell /Tallion /Kuhl /Williams . Glasknow in bullpen next closer in waiting 3 years from now.Barault needs to be in bullpen too..



Go after a Souza from the rays or Moran from the Astros...Need some new blood. Take on Elsbury from Yanks at half price with Clint Frazier included for Cole and Harrison...Elsbury could be rejuvinated with an change of scenery.

Rangers knockin on the door for Cole ....Seems like they are offering that old ass prospect Profar and we want Calhoun, make it happen ...Willie has a bat for sure even tho he is like 5`6 ....Think Altuve .

There was a shift for some reason to on base guys vs the long ball hitters. Guys like Pedro Alvarez and Chris Carter had a hard time finding a team and playing time.



Losing Alvarez, Walker, and Kang was a big blow to the HR stat for the Pirates over the years. Their replacements didn't produce the power.



I always thought you either hit HRs and drive in runs or you get on base and score runs as a player. You have to do one or the other.