OnlyBucs

With the last two losing seasons and a healthy dose of cynicism for 2018, seems many are excusing the Pirates. However, where there are some valid reasons out of NH’s control, he has been and remains at the core of the issue.



First let me address a few valid issues when evaluating NH



1. The Pirates are a small market team with seemingly a smaller market owner.



2. Pirates have been the victim of a few unfortunate things the last two years.



There. I put it out as to not be accused of acknowledging two relatively valid points. But I believe it’s equally valid to dig a little deeper into both points to put in proper perspective.



Point #1 is the most valid. Fact is Pirates don’t have some of the luxuries of other teams. It’s a reality all small market teams have to deal with. But is not an excuse to fail. As we’ve seen from other teams in similar markets, success can be achieved and sustained for a period of time. And both in terms of level and length of success, there have been more successful small market teams than the Pirates.



Point #2 is more anecdotal. Yes, nobody could have predicted Kang not being allowed into the country or Marte get busted for PED use and missing half a season (while also casting a shadow of doubt about his true abilities). But losing players to various injuries and other issues is part of the sports landscape. Yes, it happened to the Pirates with both these guys and it certainly had a negative impact. But the Pirates weren’t the only team in baseball to have players miss time. Even including Marte and Kang, the Pirates were still below average for games lost to injury in 2017. Additionally, the hidden secret they don’t want you to know? They were extremely fortunate regarding injuries 2013-2015. So it appears either their luck ran out or the law of averages caught up to them. You can’t honestly blame the failures of the last two years on bad luck while ignoring the good fortune they experienced 2013-2015. Were they only good those three years because they avoided the injury bug? No. Just like they weren’t bad last year because they did experience injuries/games lost.



So with those two points acknowledged, let’s move on to what I believe are the bigger issues and at the core of what ails the Pirates in 2018 and beyond.



* Financial Flexibility. This somewhat involves point number one from above. But where people like to defend NH by saying he built a winner before so he can do it again, I believe they’re ignoring a bigger picture. Back in 2013-2014 the Pirates were getting significant production from inexpensive talent. McCutchen, Marte, Walker, Alvarez, Cole, Melancon, Grilli and Harrison were massive bargains and several were earning less than $1 million. Due to this, it allowed NH to make moves for guys like Burnett, Liriano and Martin. Unfortunately that financial flexibility does not exist today as the Pirates have clearly hit the ceiling on their payroll maximum, limiting their options. So where NH is able to succeed with a $20 million dollar cushion, he’s a different GM without it. Just look at what he did after both the 2015 and 2016 seasons. Rather than acquiring players with actual talent or reasonable hope to bounce back and contribute on a meaningful level, he acquired untalented guys like Niese and Vogelsong or overpaid for guys like Hudson and Rodriguez.



* Drafting. This was supposed to be the core of their rebuild and an area NH was going to excel. At least that’s what we were sold back in 2008. Unfortunately it’s not remotely accurate 9 years later. Based on bWAR, the Pirates rank 21st in all of baseball for drafted players since 2008. Below average but even worse considering a) where they drafted, b) resources spent (before MLB instituted a slotting system), and c) the significance of a team like the Pirates depending on acquiring talent through the draft.



Additionally, looking at picks after the 2nd round the Pirates are even worse, rankings 23rd in all of baseball. NH simply isn’t getting production unless he’s taking guys with early picks even casual fans likely could make. And the production they receive, is well below average.



If you read many of the blogs or websites dedicated to the Pirates minor leagues, praising NH, or in some cases doing both, this may come as a surprise. Personally, I’m always amazed at the level of misinformation or unbridled and irrational optimism some of these sites perpetuate. In their and our own defense, we all somewhat lost sight of the failures in these areas as we celebrated their successes in 2013-2015. But the evidence was there even back then. The vast majority of production those years came from:



1. Players NH inherited (McCutchen, Walker, Marte, Watson).



2. Players acquired via trade (Burnett in ‘13, Harrison, Morton, Melancon, Snider).



3. Players acquired via FA (Martin, Liriano, Burnett in ‘15, Volquez, Grilli).



The production from players drafted and developed was the vast minority (Alvarez, Cole, Justin Wilson).



Now, you might be thinking it’s acceptable for the drafted players to contribute less in those years as most of them would still be developing in the minors. Which is partially true. But then gets to the bigger issue regarding the failures of the last two years.



While some fans want to inaccurately blame those seasons on bad luck, they conveniently ignore the bigger fundamental problem of poor drafting.



While some fans want to blame the Pirates being a small market team and unable to compete for legitimate FA, they conveniently ignore the bigger fundamental problems of poor drafting.



Where there is certainly time for more recent drafts to change and possibly improve the data, there’s simply no denying how poorly NH did 2008 to 2010. Just look at what they drafted and now have to show for those three drafts:



1. Received a few years of slightly above average seasons from Pedro Alvarez, non-tendered him and had nothing to show for the #2 overall pick just 8 years later.



2. Adequate and passable production from Jordy Mercer, who currently ranks as the best positional player drafted by NH.



3. Justin Wilson, who provided one very good and one poor season as a RP, was was flipped for Francisco Cervelli. Cervelli, who after producing what appears to be a complete outlier, now has a contract the Pirates would love to just give away and get out from under.



4. Robbie Grossman. They traded Grossman as part of a deal to acquire Wandy Rodriguez. It’s the type of deal I wish NH would be more willing to make, but unfortunately didn’t really work out. Simply because the Pirates could have benefited from having Grossman the past three seasons compared to what they received from Rodriguez.



5. Tony Sanchez. Enough said.



6. Brock Holt, the gem of a 2009 draft that arguably could be compared to some of Dave Littlefield’s worst. Holt was part of the trade that brought Melancon to Pittsburgh, but after a great first half in 2015, he’s proven to be an injury plagued, below average hitter.



7. Jameson Taillon. Plenty of time for him to move the needle, and possibly substantially. Still has plenty of upside but looking back 7-1/2 years later, it’s warranted to question if NH made the right pick (Machado, Sale and Yelich we’re still on the board).



That’s it. There are some guys who got cups of coffee, but considering they drafted 2nd, 4th and 2nd, you’d think they would net more in 2017 than Taillon and Mercer. And a big reason for back to back losing seasons and why there is valid skepticism for 2018.



Fact is, NH didn’t just wake up at the 2017 winter meetings with a middling team without many options and straddling between trying to win in 2018 or rebuilding. What he’s dealing with has been self inflicted by his failures as a GM in previous years.

Nice post and an accurate portrayal.



The draft, or lack of draft success is the biggest problem. For this team to succeed with a continuous bottom of the league payroll, they need impactful homegrown talent. I’m not talking about average or above average players. They need to uncover a Judge or Bellinger every once in awhile.

2C313537223A2D3B33580 wrote: Nice post and an accurate portrayal.



The draft, or lack of draft success is the biggest problem.  For this team to succeed with a continuous bottom of the league payroll, they need impactful homegrown talent.  I’m not talking about average or above average players.  They need to uncover a Judge or Bellinger every once in awhile. 
Fact is they could have had Judge. He was drafted 32nd in the First Round in 2013. I wanted the Bucs to draft him after seeing him in person at Fresno State. That size and power does not come along very often

6444574A4B250 wrote: With the last two losing seasons and a healthy dose of cynicism for 2018, seems many are excusing the Pirates. However, where there are some valid reasons out of NH’s control, he has been and remains at the core of the issue.



First let me address a few valid issues when evaluating NH



1. The Pirates are a small market team with seemingly a smaller market owner.



2. Pirates have been the victim of a few unfortunate things the last two years.



There. I put it out as to not be accused of acknowledging two relatively valid points.  But I believe it’s equally valid to dig a little deeper into both points to put in proper perspective.



Point #1 is the most valid. Fact is Pirates don’t have some of the luxuries of other teams. It’s a reality all small market teams have to deal with. But is not an excuse to fail. As we’ve seen from other teams in similar markets, success can be achieved and sustained for a period of time. And both in terms of level and length of success, there have been more successful small market teams than the Pirates.



Point #2 is more anecdotal.  Yes, nobody could have predicted Kang not being allowed into the country or Marte get busted for PED use and missing half a season (while also casting a shadow of doubt about his true abilities). But losing players to various injuries and other issues is part of the sports landscape. Yes, it happened to the Pirates with both these guys and it certainly had a negative impact. But the Pirates weren’t the only team in baseball to have players miss time. Even including Marte and Kang, the Pirates were still below average for games lost to injury in 2017. Additionally, the hidden secret they don’t want you to know? They were extremely fortunate regarding injuries 2013-2015. So it appears either their luck ran out or the law of averages caught up to them. You can’t honestly blame the failures of the last two years on bad luck while ignoring the good fortune they experienced 2013-2015. Were they only good those three years because they avoided the injury bug?  No. Just like they weren’t bad last year because they did experience injuries/games lost.



So with those two points acknowledged, let’s move on to what I believe are the bigger issues and at the core of what ails the Pirates in 2018 and beyond.



* Financial Flexibility. This somewhat involves point number one from above. But where people like to defend NH by saying he built a winner before so he can do it again, I believe they’re ignoring a bigger picture. Back in 2013-2014 the Pirates were getting significant production from inexpensive talent. McCutchen, Marte, Walker, Alvarez, Cole, Melancon, Grilli and Harrison were massive bargains and several were earning less than $1 million. Due to this, it allowed NH to make moves for guys like Burnett, Liriano and Martin.  Unfortunately that financial flexibility does not exist today as the Pirates have clearly hit the ceiling on their payroll maximum, limiting their options.   So where NH is able to succeed with a $20 million dollar cushion, he’s a different GM without it. Just look at what he did after both the 2015 and 2016 seasons. Rather than acquiring players with actual talent or reasonable hope to bounce back and contribute on a meaningful level, he acquired untalented guys like Niese and Vogelsong or overpaid for guys like Hudson and Rodriguez.



* Drafting. This was supposed to be the core of their rebuild and an area NH was going to excel. At least that’s what we were sold back in 2008. Unfortunately it’s not remotely accurate 9 years later. Based on bWAR, the Pirates rank 21st in all of baseball for drafted players since 2008. Below average but even worse considering a) where they drafted, b) resources spent (before MLB instituted a slotting system), and c) the significance of a team like the Pirates depending on acquiring talent through the draft.



Additionally, looking at picks after the 2nd round the Pirates are even worse, rankings 23rd in all of baseball. NH simply isn’t getting production unless he’s taking guys with early picks even casual fans likely could make. And the production they receive, is well below average.



If you read many of the blogs or websites dedicated to the Pirates minor leagues, praising NH, or in some cases doing both, this may come as a surprise. Personally, I’m always amazed at the level of misinformation or unbridled and irrational optimism some of these sites perpetuate. In their and our own defense, we all somewhat lost sight of the failures in these areas as we celebrated their successes in 2013-2015. But the evidence was there even back then. The vast majority of production those years came from:



1. Players NH inherited (McCutchen, Walker, Marte, Watson).



2. Players acquired via trade (Burnett in ‘13, Harrison, Morton, Melancon, Snider).



3. Players acquired via FA (Martin, Liriano, Burnett in ‘15, Volquez, Grilli).



The production from players drafted and developed was the vast minority (Alvarez, Cole, Justin Wilson).



Now, you might be thinking it’s acceptable for the drafted players to contribute less in those years as most of them would still be developing in the minors. Which is partially true. But then gets to the bigger issue regarding the failures of the last two years.



While some fans want to inaccurately blame those seasons on bad luck, they conveniently ignore the bigger fundamental problem of poor drafting.



While some fans want to blame the Pirates being a small market team and unable to compete for legitimate FA, they conveniently ignore the bigger fundamental problems of poor drafting.



Where there is certainly time for more recent drafts to change and possibly improve the data, there’s simply no denying how poorly NH did 2008 to 2010. Just look at what they drafted and now have to show for those three drafts:



1. Received a few years of slightly above average seasons from Pedro Alvarez, non-tendered him and had nothing to show for the #2 overall pick just 8 years later.



2. Adequate and passable production from Jordy Mercer, who currently ranks as the best positional player drafted by NH.



3. Justin Wilson, who provided one very good and one poor season as a RP, was was flipped for Francisco Cervelli. Cervelli, who after producing what appears to be a complete outlier, now has a contract the Pirates would love to just give away and get out from under.



4. Robbie Grossman. They traded Grossman as part of a deal to acquire Wandy Rodriguez.  It’s the type of deal I wish NH would be more willing to make, but unfortunately didn’t really work out. Simply because the Pirates could have benefited from having Grossman the past three seasons compared to what they received from Rodriguez.



5. Tony Sanchez. Enough said.



6. Brock Holt, the gem of a 2009 draft that arguably could be compared to some of Dave Littlefield’s worst.  Holt was part of the trade that brought Melancon to Pittsburgh, but after a great first half in 2015, he’s proven to be an injury plagued, below average hitter.



7.  Jameson Taillon. Plenty of time for him to move the needle, and possibly substantially. Still has plenty of upside but looking back 7-1/2 years later, it’s warranted to question if NH made the right pick (Machado, Sale and Yelich we’re still on the board).



That’s it. There are some guys who got cups of coffee, but considering they drafted 2nd, 4th and 2nd, you’d think they would net more in 2017 than Taillon and Mercer.  And a big reason for back to back losing seasons and why there is valid skepticism for 2018.



Fact is, NH didn’t just wake up at the 2017 winter meetings with a middling team without many options and straddling between trying to win in 2018 or rebuilding.  What he’s dealing with has been self inflicted by his failures as a GM in previous years.


good post.



yeah, to win on the cheap the drafting had to be excellent and deep. Combine that with almost no international prospects (or at least high ceiling ones) other than Kang and you have a team where everything has to go right for it to win.



Cole, Taillon and Bell have come through for the most part. But this team is on the edge and really needed Glasnow and at least one or two others to come through too so that there was a pipeline of prospects ready to perform well in the majors.

Turns out getting Trevor Williams was a big plus too.



To fans, in 2015, Marte, Cutch and Polanco all looked like they could be all star caliber players in 2017 and 2018. Don't know if the Pirates thought the same. Now who knows if any of them will be close to performing that well next season.



If the Bucs don't think they can perform at high levels in 2018 then the season is over before it starts and they should be making as many deals as they can to bring in talent.



In speaking of drafts, in hindsight it looks like the Bucs gambled quite a bit in when they picked Kevin Newman and Kevin Kramer in first 2 rounds in 2015. To me, both are much lower ceiling players than I think should be taken that high in the draft. Will Craig needs to hit at Altoona to show he is a prospect. I'm not betting on that happening.

Aaron - thanks for taking the time to post. Very good.



By any measure, it would seem the Pirates are moving in the wrong direction very quickly. The small mkt excuse is just that - an excuse.



Here's what's crazy - the one area the Pirates have a level playing field compared to every other team is the draft. As you point out, in this critical area Neal has done a very poor job. How can his 4 year extension be explained by anyone? One thing is certain: Neal is not being graded on his baseball skills. So what is Mr Nutting grading Neal on?....

6C6B7D757B6C2B275E79737F7772307D71731E0 wrote: Aaron - thanks for taking the time to post.  Very good.



By any measure, it would seem the Pirates are moving in the wrong direction very quickly.  The small mkt excuse is just that - an excuse.



Here's what's crazy - the one area the Pirates have a level playing field compared to every other team is the draft.  As you point out, in this critical area Neal has done a very poor job. How can his 4 year extension be explained by anyone?  One thing is certain: Neal is not being graded on his baseball skills.  So what is Mr Nutting grading Neal on?....
If you believe as I do, that Nutting has come to terms with the fact that he will not spend what it would take to be a serious contender, then replacing NH would have made no sense. A new GM (tho possibly a better drafter) would not make enough difference to make the team competitive with the available resources and would only highlight to the public that the GM was not the main problem. Not only is NH willing to embarrass himself with nonsensical quotes defending the organization's failure to even try to build a winner, but he also serves as at least a partial buffer in the blame game as many fans focus on him rather than Nutting as the primary problem. All of which makes him valuable to Nutting. Hence the 4-year extension.

230E03121504135350610 wrote: Aaron - thanks for taking the time to post.  Very good.



By any measure, it would seem the Pirates are moving in the wrong direction very quickly.  The small mkt excuse is just that - an excuse.



Here's what's crazy - the one area the Pirates have a level playing field compared to every other team is the draft.  As you point out, in this critical area Neal has done a very poor job. How can his 4 year extension be explained by anyone?  One thing is certain: Neal is not being graded on his baseball skills.  So what is Mr Nutting grading Neal on?....
If you believe as I do, that Nutting has come to terms with the fact that he will not spend what it would take to be a serious contender, then replacing NH would have made no sense. A new GM (tho possibly a better drafter) would not make enough difference to make the team competitive with the available resources and would only highlight to the public that the GM was not the main problem. Not only is NH willing to embarrass himself with nonsensical quotes defending the organization's failure to even try to build a winner, but he also serves as at least a partial buffer in the blame game as many fans focus on him rather than Nutting as the primary problem. All of which makes him valuable to Nutting. Hence the 4-year extension.   




Well, I think you make a pretty good case that Neal's main job is not baseball (in the traditional sense of being a MLB GM). I'd love for someone who disagrees to make their case for Neal's four year deal.

755855444352450506370 wrote: Aaron - thanks for taking the time to post.  Very good.



By any measure, it would seem the Pirates are moving in the wrong direction very quickly.  The small mkt excuse is just that - an excuse.



Here's what's crazy - the one area the Pirates have a level playing field compared to every other team is the draft.  As you point out, in this critical area Neal has done a very poor job. How can his 4 year extension be explained by anyone?  One thing is certain: Neal is not being graded on his baseball skills.  So what is Mr Nutting grading Neal on?....
If you believe as I do, that Nutting has come to terms with the fact that he will not spend what it would take to be a serious contender, then replacing NH would have made no sense. A new GM (tho possibly a better drafter) would not make enough difference to make the team competitive with the available resources and would only highlight to the public that the GM was not the main problem. Not only is NH willing to embarrass himself with nonsensical quotes defending the organization's failure to even try to build a winner, but he also serves as at least a partial buffer in the blame game as many fans focus on him rather than Nutting as the primary problem. All of which makes him valuable to Nutting. Hence the 4-year extension.   


True. I hope NH is investing well, because when he inevitably takes the fall for this embarrassment he isn't getting another GM job.

082D2E2E3B102D252730420 wrote: Nice post and an accurate portrayal.



The draft, or lack of draft success is the biggest problem.  For this team to succeed with a continuous bottom of the league payroll, they need impactful homegrown talent.  I’m not talking about average or above average players.  They need to uncover a Judge or Bellinger every once in awhile. 
Fact is they could have had Judge. He was drafted 32nd in the First Round in 2013. I wanted the Bucs to draft him after seeing him in person at Fresno State. That size and power does not come along very often




I can't believe I'm doing this at all, but the baseball draft is the biggest crap shoot of them all. I think we all can rip the organization for taking Sanchez, Maholm, who was the garbage early pick from Clemson that was cast as a reliever who don't do anything of note (name escapes me because he is so forgettable), maybe Bullington too. However, saying we could have taken someone that was taken 32nd, doesn't pass the sniff test. Did anyone really know Judge was going to be this dominant? If so, I'd suspect he would have been chosen earlier. Again, I hate defending the Bucs GM or owner in this case, but ...

5040417660606C030 wrote: Nice post and an accurate portrayal.



The draft, or lack of draft success is the biggest problem.  For this team to succeed with a continuous bottom of the league payroll, they need impactful homegrown talent.  I’m not talking about average or above average players.  They need to uncover a Judge or Bellinger every once in awhile. 
Fact is they could have had Judge. He was drafted 32nd in the First Round in 2013. I wanted the Bucs to draft him after seeing him in person at Fresno State. That size and power does not come along very often




I can't believe I'm doing this at all, but the baseball draft is the biggest crap shoot of them all.  I think we all can rip the organization for taking Sanchez, Maholm, who was the garbage early pick from Clemson that was cast as a reliever who don't do anything of note (name escapes me because he is so forgettable), maybe Bullington too.  However, saying we could have taken someone that was taken 32nd, doesn't pass the sniff test.  Did anyone really know Judge was going to be this dominant?  If so, I'd suspect he would have been chosen earlier.  Again, I hate defending the Bucs GM or owner in this case, but ...


I agree, to a point.  You can play that game with any draft. 24 teams passed on Mike Trout. Albert Pujols wasn’t drafted until the 13th round.



But what you can do is look at a GM’s entire body of work. Which why it’s not a complete crapshoot. And after 10 drafts we’ve got a good amount of data to evaluate NH. Spoiler alert. It’s bad.