OnlyBucs

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I’m not sure which infuriates Pirates fans more: the team’s lack of spending or its garbled message points.



In a recent radio interview, Huntington was presented with his claim that neither the Cole trade nor the McCutchen trade dramatically impacted the Pirates’ chance to win the World Series this year.



We, as hosts, wondered: Did that mean he thought his team had no shot either way or a decent shot that was not impacted?



What follows, I do solemnly swear, is an exact transcript of his answer. And perhaps the all-time example of Pirate inscrutability.



Before you dive in, I suggest you find a comfortable chair, a tall drink and a team of linguists. You’re going to be here a while.



Here we go …



“Well, the Gerrit Cole trade, our internal projection model — and my guess is most of the external projection models — really wouldn’t change that much. We add Colin Moran, a left-handed-hitting third baseman with developing power … and we add what we believe is going to be a good major league starting pitcher in (Joe) Musgrove, and we add a good reliever in Michael Feliz, who, again, his metrics and his indicators are better than his surface ERA. It reminds us of guys we’ve had a lot of success with here, that have quality stuff, but the results are less than the indicators, and then eventually the indicators catch up to the actual, because stuff plays and strikeouts play.



“[highlight]So that trade, the projection models, we actually got a little bit better in some, a little bit worse in others, but it did not have a strong impact on our projected win total, which is not good enough to be in the postseason as we sit here today but on the edge …[/highlight]



“With only replacing Andrew, or replacing Andrew, with a reliever, potentially, that one does cost us wins in the projection model. It still leaves us on the outside looking in at the projection model of the postseason. It’s actually pretty close to where we were in ’13, ’14, ’15 and actually worse than where we were projected to be in ’16 and ’17. So what that means is we’ve added some variability with our veteran players that we’re anticipating bouncing back and our young players that we’re anticipating getting better. They’re not all going to do that, but we believe, much like like ’13, ’14 and ’15, we have some things go in our direction, we can do what the Twins and Brewers did a year ago. We can do what the Pirates did in ’13 and find ourselves in a playoff hunt and do that sooner than later.



“So it’s not really an either-or. It wasn’t, ‘We’re out of it with no chance regardless,’ and it wasn’t it eliminated our playoff odds. [highlight]They stayed pretty much the same with those two trades, the second trade knocking us back a little bit, yes.”

[/highlight]

I’m glad we cleared that up.



Quick question, though: If you’re “on the edge” of contention, why not keep your best position player and pitcher and add around them? Why not do that especially this offseason, with so many players yet unsigned because of a soft market?



It’s a flea market out there, the perfect place for Bob Nutting to shop.



Why not add around those two?



“And that’s a great question,” Huntington said. “[It’s] because we weren’t good enough a year ago.”



Are they good enough now? Are they contending, rebuilding or somewhere in-between? Huntington won’t use the R-word because it implies a long process. He instead used other R-words, such as restocking, replenishing and refreshing.



Here’s another one: receding. Which describes the Pirates in this town’s sports consciousness.



While the freakin’ Brewers go all in

Feliz is a quality reliever if you thought Archimedes Camminero was. They are essentially the same thing. Crick is basically Camminero as well. Musgrove has shown very little to suggest he is/will be a quality MLB starter. We don't even know if he is a starter here.

Ha! SCBucco, say what you like, neither of those two has a name that even approaches in quality that of Archimedes Camminero. Otherwise, though, you may have a point.

Hey Neal!



My "internal projection model" tells me that without McCutchen and Cole this team which won 75 games last year, and did not come close to a post season berth has gotten worse. Better run those numbers through your obfuscation model again because nobody's buying what you're selling.

The sooner this pretend scientist gets fired, the better.



This failed modeling is likely what told him to add Vogelsong and Jaso, because the model said they were already good enough to get in the playoffs.

I don't know who writes these "commentaries", but here's another one, spot on.



http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/pira ... 1801250206



Here are two lines that are concerning/scary/baffling:

1) the Marlins received more value for Yelich than the Pirates received for Cutch and Cole combined. The fact that this might be true shows just how much Neal has allowed the assets to depreciate. I made a big point that Cole, a 1-1, in the end returned very little value. that spot needed to be managed to maximize return. Cole could have been a huge return. it was Neal's responsibility to understand what they had in him and maximize his value.



2) Neal said: "This team is going to show up ready to go in spring training, ready to compete, ready to defy odds, just like that 2013 Pirates team did.” ;D

This may be the most embarrassing statement I've ever heard from a baseball guy. I trust Neal is not really basing his expectations for the season on some screwball BS that these Pirates are ready to show up and compete. Heck, they're even going to defy odds!



My gosh, do we look as dumb as he's making us out to be??

This is really interesting.



Depth Charts at FanGraphs has the Pirates projected for a record of 79 - 83, 5 games out of the Wild Card. That's the only credible projection system I've seen out so far this offseason. Obviously, it's unbiased toward the Pirates, so is it completely off-base or are we just sour right now because of our perceptions?



Clearly, the Pirates are not a playoff team but and I don't expect a projection system to change anybody's mind about the Pirates but I also think some people are over-reacting here.



I actually like the Gerrit Cole trade more than the Cutch trade. I hate seeing Andrew go and would have preferred that the team overpay him to stay in Black & Gold. I'm buying Moran's power uptick the more I read and I really like Feliz.



I just don't see a superstar player to build around. I guess Josh Bell could have a .300-25-100 year or something, but I think we need to find a new face of the franchise.

21243320760704450 wrote: This is really interesting.



Depth Charts at FanGraphs has the Pirates projected for a record of 79 - 83, 5 games out of the Wild Card. That's the only credible projection system I've seen out so far this offseason. Obviously, it's unbiased toward the Pirates, so is it completely off-base or are we just sour right now because of our perceptions?



Clearly, the Pirates are not a playoff team but and I don't expect a projection system to change anybody's mind about the Pirates but I also think some people are over-reacting here.



I actually like the Gerrit Cole trade more than the Cutch trade. I hate seeing Andrew go and would have preferred that the team overpay him to stay in Black & Gold. I'm buying Moran's power uptick the more I read and I really like Feliz.



I just don't see a superstar player to build around. I guess Josh Bell could have a .300-25-100 year or something, but I think we need to find a new face of the franchise.






Which strengthens the case of adding to the team....instead this team sits around and either does nothing or dumpster dives.



This organization is a joke...the worst in mlb.

223F3B392C3423353D560 wrote: This is really interesting.



Depth Charts at FanGraphs has the Pirates projected for a record of 79 - 83, 5 games out of the Wild Card. That's the only credible projection system I've seen out so far this offseason. Obviously, it's unbiased toward the Pirates, so is it completely off-base or are we just sour right now because of our perceptions?



Clearly, the Pirates are not a playoff team but and I don't expect a projection system to change anybody's mind about the Pirates but I also think some people are over-reacting here.



I actually like the Gerrit Cole trade more than the Cutch trade. I hate seeing Andrew go and would have preferred that the team overpay him to stay in Black & Gold. I'm buying Moran's power uptick the more I read and I really like Feliz.



I just don't see a superstar player to build around. I guess Josh Bell could have a .300-25-100 year or something, but I think we need to find a new face of the franchise.






Which strengthens the case of adding to the team....instead this team sits around and either does nothing or dumpster dives.



This organization is a joke...the worst in mlb.




Right. I think a lot of people on here believe the team could have become competitive if the FO tried. The dark clouds are because they seem content to role out a team that’s built to win 79 games. That’s the worse possible result imho.

So NH says the Pirates are ready to compete this year but if they do it will defy the odds. Which suggests they are not ready to compete. Ok, got it!



He says they are ready to compete but his projected win total is not good enough to be in the postseason. Ok, got it!



He says they stayed pretty much the same with those two trades, but the Cutch trade knocked them back a little bit. Which means they didn't stay pretty much the same. He says trading Cutch leaves them on the outside looking in at their own projection model of the postseason. Ok, got ot!



It's all crystal clear. They're going to compete but the odds are against it. They're going to compete without an adequate win total. And the trades left them the same only worse.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9434BoGkNQ