Two-seam risk?
Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:26 pm
A few months ago I questioned whether excessive use of the two-seam (2S) fastball compromised the effectiveness of our pitchers. Now I am questioning if the two-seamer compromises their arm health?
Most experts agree that speed or power pitches increase the strain on the forearm and elbow. Add in the potential extra torque from the pronation of a two-seam delivery and you can have a high-risk pitch.
In this decade alone, Charlie Morton, Clay Holmes, Jamison Taillon, Brandon Cumpton, Nick Kingham, and Chad Kuhl have had Tommy John surgery (TJS). Edgar Santana is up next. I could confirm all except Cumpton threw high percentages of two-seamers.
Kuhl threw 63% and 46% 2S in 2017 and 2018. Worse yet he averaged 96 mph with a violent release. Santana hurled 50% and 39% 2S in 2017 and 2018, averaging 95 mph on those pitches. Although I couldn't get Holmes pitch type from the year of his TJS in 2014, he continued his heavy-sinker diet having thrown 48% 2S in 2018 with the Bucs. Morton threw 61% 2S in 171 innings in 2011, the year prior to his TJS in 2012.
Last weekend I saw a list of the 20 two-seam pitchers with the highest spin rates in 2018. It was amazing how many players on that list have already had TJS-- including Tyler Chatwood, who has had the surgery twice.
In another list of players who have had TJS, I googled Adam Wainwright and Alex Cobb. Wainwright had TJS in 2011, after consecutive years tossing at least 230 innings and 46% 2S. Since the surgery, Wainwright has not thrown more than 27% 2S --- until this year when in a SSS he is at 36%. Cobb threw 38% 2S in the 2 years before his surgery in 2015. He hasn’t backed off though, having thrown 47%, 51%, and 42% in the 3 years since.
I am sure pitchers can blow out their arms on any type of pitch but it does make me wonder if the two-seamer is accelerating the TJS epidemic? The other night I saw Matt Scherzer pitching, so I googled him. He has pitched over 2,100 career innings and over 200 innings each of the past 6 seasons. He has never had TJS. Scherzer doesn’t throw the two-seamer.
Is it possible the 2S will someday move towards near extinction like the split finger? Both are great pitches, but pitches that should probably be used in moderation as complimentary pitches. Regardless, I think the Pirates should take a long look at pitch type allocation and how they develop their pitchers. They should also study the release mechanics of each 2S pitcher. I hope Mitch Keller doesn’t focus on the power-sinker?
Most experts agree that speed or power pitches increase the strain on the forearm and elbow. Add in the potential extra torque from the pronation of a two-seam delivery and you can have a high-risk pitch.
In this decade alone, Charlie Morton, Clay Holmes, Jamison Taillon, Brandon Cumpton, Nick Kingham, and Chad Kuhl have had Tommy John surgery (TJS). Edgar Santana is up next. I could confirm all except Cumpton threw high percentages of two-seamers.
Kuhl threw 63% and 46% 2S in 2017 and 2018. Worse yet he averaged 96 mph with a violent release. Santana hurled 50% and 39% 2S in 2017 and 2018, averaging 95 mph on those pitches. Although I couldn't get Holmes pitch type from the year of his TJS in 2014, he continued his heavy-sinker diet having thrown 48% 2S in 2018 with the Bucs. Morton threw 61% 2S in 171 innings in 2011, the year prior to his TJS in 2012.
Last weekend I saw a list of the 20 two-seam pitchers with the highest spin rates in 2018. It was amazing how many players on that list have already had TJS-- including Tyler Chatwood, who has had the surgery twice.
In another list of players who have had TJS, I googled Adam Wainwright and Alex Cobb. Wainwright had TJS in 2011, after consecutive years tossing at least 230 innings and 46% 2S. Since the surgery, Wainwright has not thrown more than 27% 2S --- until this year when in a SSS he is at 36%. Cobb threw 38% 2S in the 2 years before his surgery in 2015. He hasn’t backed off though, having thrown 47%, 51%, and 42% in the 3 years since.
I am sure pitchers can blow out their arms on any type of pitch but it does make me wonder if the two-seamer is accelerating the TJS epidemic? The other night I saw Matt Scherzer pitching, so I googled him. He has pitched over 2,100 career innings and over 200 innings each of the past 6 seasons. He has never had TJS. Scherzer doesn’t throw the two-seamer.
Is it possible the 2S will someday move towards near extinction like the split finger? Both are great pitches, but pitches that should probably be used in moderation as complimentary pitches. Regardless, I think the Pirates should take a long look at pitch type allocation and how they develop their pitchers. They should also study the release mechanics of each 2S pitcher. I hope Mitch Keller doesn’t focus on the power-sinker?