baseball prospectus PECOTA predictions.
Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:50 pm
has the Pirates at 81-81 and tied with the Reds (about what a bunch of people are feeling). The surprise to me was that they only had the Cubs one game better.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news ... team-2019/
"The case for the 82-80 Cubs, only a game ahead of Cincinnati and Pittsburgh:
What PECOTA’s projecting is a really, really tight NL Central, with eight games separating the top from the bottom. One game out of last place in the Central isn’t like being a game out of last place in, say, any of the American League divisions. Two or three wins here or there—that’s a variation of less than two percent over 162 games—can alter the order a lot.
There are still some free agents available (I can think of a few in particular) whose addition could add three or four wins to a team’s projection. Not that the Cubs seem likely to pursue them, but still.
Let’s look at the Cubs’ division. The Brewers signed Yasmani Grandal. The Cardinals signed Andrew Miller and traded for Paul Goldschmidt. The Reds have added Tanner Roark, Alex Wood, and Sonny Gray along with Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp. Even the toss-around-nickels-like-they’re-manhole-covers Pirates signed Lonnie Chisenhall and Jordan Lyles.
The Cubs? Well, they swapped out Tommy La Stella for Daniel Descalso and signed Brad Brach for a year.
Meanwhile, they Cubs had the NL’s oldest pitching staff last year. The rotation looks like Jon Lester (in his age-35 season), Jose Quintana (30), Cole Hamels (35), Kyle Hendricks (29), and Yu Darvish (32). The closer will be … Brandon Morrow (34)? Pedro Strop (34)? Steve Cishek (32)? Brach (33)? PECOTA, fully cognizant of aging curves, is projecting these old hurlers surrendering 730 runs in 2019 compared to 645 in 2018, over half a run more per game. It sees the team scoring 739 runs, less than a tenth of a run fewer per game. The pessimism is based on those aging pitchers."
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news ... team-2019/
"The case for the 82-80 Cubs, only a game ahead of Cincinnati and Pittsburgh:
What PECOTA’s projecting is a really, really tight NL Central, with eight games separating the top from the bottom. One game out of last place in the Central isn’t like being a game out of last place in, say, any of the American League divisions. Two or three wins here or there—that’s a variation of less than two percent over 162 games—can alter the order a lot.
There are still some free agents available (I can think of a few in particular) whose addition could add three or four wins to a team’s projection. Not that the Cubs seem likely to pursue them, but still.
Let’s look at the Cubs’ division. The Brewers signed Yasmani Grandal. The Cardinals signed Andrew Miller and traded for Paul Goldschmidt. The Reds have added Tanner Roark, Alex Wood, and Sonny Gray along with Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp. Even the toss-around-nickels-like-they’re-manhole-covers Pirates signed Lonnie Chisenhall and Jordan Lyles.
The Cubs? Well, they swapped out Tommy La Stella for Daniel Descalso and signed Brad Brach for a year.
Meanwhile, they Cubs had the NL’s oldest pitching staff last year. The rotation looks like Jon Lester (in his age-35 season), Jose Quintana (30), Cole Hamels (35), Kyle Hendricks (29), and Yu Darvish (32). The closer will be … Brandon Morrow (34)? Pedro Strop (34)? Steve Cishek (32)? Brach (33)? PECOTA, fully cognizant of aging curves, is projecting these old hurlers surrendering 730 runs in 2019 compared to 645 in 2018, over half a run more per game. It sees the team scoring 739 runs, less than a tenth of a run fewer per game. The pessimism is based on those aging pitchers."