65564A4B4840764B504C5750414D4A240 wrote:
7) here's one I don't understand - if drafting and player development, and not money, are the essential elements in building a championship team, and money has little or no role, why would ANYONE support this FO? Our drafting and player development is atrocious. Literally, if we're expecting our farm system and development to be the signature of this team going forward then I think there's a good chance we're in year 2 of another 20 year losing streak. I have no idea how focusing solely on draft and development helps this FO.
I'd say mediocre rather than atrocious, but to be successful they have to be exemplary at this stuff. It's basically why I think the best strategy right now is to hold their cards and just hope everyone has a good year. I think the current group has a better chance of being good next year than the kids on the team and in the system have of being good in 2020.
At the conclusion of the 2017 season the Pirates rank 19th in WAR for drafted players since 2008 (down 1 spot from the previous year). That's slightly below average. Considering where they drafted and the amount of resources and emphasis on the draft, it's bad with any negative adjective you want to place in front of it.
There plan now seems hope. Hope players develop. Hope players perform better than expected. Hope players stay healthy. All while lowering the bar from "multiple championships" to "endless window of contention" to "playing competitive baseball".
Of course the ill informed will say they've done it before so we should believe they can do it again. The question I always ask those ill informed fans is how did they do it before and how does that apply in 2018? But that level of critical thinking skills are absent when comparing 2013-2015 to the present situation. Those previous years were built on:
a) an inherited perennial all-star performing at a HOF level.
b) an inherited player who was one of the best offensive 2b in the game (and offensively better those years than Josh Bell in 2018, mind you).
c) shrewd trades and acquisitions of veteran players like Burnett, Martin and Liriano
Notice how drafted and developed players are not listed. They represented a minority to the success of those teams.
But a-c aren't what's occurring in 2018. The perennial all star is now just an above average player. The 2b was dumped for a guy who couldn't get high school hitters out and despite the ill informed opinion NH can duplicate the Burnett/Martin/Liriano acquisitions, it's unlikely. Very unlikely.
First, the 2012-2015 teams had so many young players, they had a level of financial flexibility that does exist today. Secondly, it appears the rotation is set and seems highly unlikely they even consider another starter. Maybe a 3b, but anyone thinking that will be another Martin situation and not a Hudson situation isn't being realistic or honest.
So as I initially said, the future is founded on hope. Hope prospects develop and perform. When the history shows this front office does a very poor job drafting and developing prospects. If people want to blindly believe in that hope, ignore facts and history and continue to be ill informed, that's their business. It's what they front office wants fans to do. But I'll continue to be realistic when evaluating the organization. Doesn't make me negative or a bad fan either.
Lastly, everything could go right in 2018 and beyond and the Pirates achieve success. It could happen. But when you look at what they have done, what's going on around the rest of baseball and how this front office appears to be lagging behind, it's unlikely. To make matters worse, this hope philosophy prevents them from truly rebuilding. As we've seen, straddling the line between rebuilding and trying to win is usually a recipe for failure.
REALITY
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DemDog
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5A7A6974751B0 wrote:
7) here's one I don't understand - if drafting and player development, and not money, are the essential elements in building a championship team, and money has little or no role, why would ANYONE support this FO? Our drafting and player development is atrocious. Literally, if we're expecting our farm system and development to be the signature of this team going forward then I think there's a good chance we're in year 2 of another 20 year losing streak. I have no idea how focusing solely on draft and development helps this FO.
I'd say mediocre rather than atrocious, but to be successful they have to be exemplary at this stuff. It's basically why I think the best strategy right now is to hold their cards and just hope everyone has a good year. I think the current group has a better chance of being good next year than the kids on the team and in the system have of being good in 2020.
At the conclusion of the 2017 season the Pirates rank 19th in WAR for drafted players since 2008 (down 1 spot from the previous year). That's slightly below average. Considering where they drafted and the amount of resources and emphasis on the draft, it's bad with any negative adjective you want to place in front of it.
There plan now seems hope. Hope players develop. Hope players perform better than expected. Hope players stay healthy. All while lowering the bar from "multiple championships" to "endless window of contention" to "playing competitive baseball".
Of course the ill informed will say they've done it before so we should believe they can do it again. The question I always ask those ill informed fans is how did they do it before and how does that apply in 2018? But that level of critical thinking skills are absent when comparing 2013-2015 to the present situation. Those previous years were built on:
a) an inherited perennial all-star performing at a HOF level.
b) an inherited player who was one of the best offensive 2b in the game (and offensively better those years than Josh Bell in 2018, mind you).
c) shrewd trades and acquisitions of veteran players like Burnett, Martin and Liriano
Notice how drafted and developed players are not listed. They represented a minority to the success of those teams.
But a-c aren't what's occurring in 2018. The perennial all star is now just an above average player. The 2b was dumped for a guy who couldn't get high school hitters out and despite the ill informed opinion NH can duplicate the Burnett/Martin/Liriano acquisitions, it's unlikely. Very unlikely.
First, the 2012-2015 teams had so many young players, they had a level of financial flexibility that does exist today. Secondly, it appears the rotation is set and seems highly unlikely they even consider another starter. Maybe a 3b, but anyone thinking that will be another Martin situation and not a Hudson situation isn't being realistic or honest.
So as I initially said, the future is founded on hope. Hope prospects develop and perform. When the history shows this front office does a very poor job drafting and developing prospects. If people want to blindly believe in that hope, ignore facts and history and continue to be ill informed, that's their business. It's what they front office wants fans to do. But I'll continue to be realistic when evaluating the organization. Doesn't make me negative or a bad fan either.
Lastly, everything could go right in 2018 and beyond and the Pirates achieve success. It could happen. But when you look at what they have done, what's going on around the rest of baseball and how this front office appears to be lagging behind, it's unlikely. To make matters worse, this hope philosophy prevents them from truly rebuilding. As we've seen, straddling the line between rebuilding and trying to win is usually a recipe for failure.
WOW!!! Aaron you put some great critical thinking into this post and I agree about 90%. The one thing that I disagree with you about is the seemingly lack of interest in having a few young kids who are "hope" prospects and reclamation projects.
I think every organization needs some of those.
I do agree with you that the organization can not compete over the long haul when the depend almost entirely on those "hope" type of players. All that does is sound the bell that the ownership is cheap and miserly.
As a long time Bucco fan I am guilty of believing the way of the "hope" player seems to work. But I have been rooting for this team for almost 60 yrs and have seen 3 WS victories. The dynamics of baseball and ownership have changed immensely since my childhood so I need younger guys like you and your critical thinking to get me back into a realistic mind frame when it comes to the success of the Buccos. See, who says you can't teach and old dog new tricks.
Thanks again for one of the best post OBN has ever seen.
7) here's one I don't understand - if drafting and player development, and not money, are the essential elements in building a championship team, and money has little or no role, why would ANYONE support this FO? Our drafting and player development is atrocious. Literally, if we're expecting our farm system and development to be the signature of this team going forward then I think there's a good chance we're in year 2 of another 20 year losing streak. I have no idea how focusing solely on draft and development helps this FO.
I'd say mediocre rather than atrocious, but to be successful they have to be exemplary at this stuff. It's basically why I think the best strategy right now is to hold their cards and just hope everyone has a good year. I think the current group has a better chance of being good next year than the kids on the team and in the system have of being good in 2020.
At the conclusion of the 2017 season the Pirates rank 19th in WAR for drafted players since 2008 (down 1 spot from the previous year). That's slightly below average. Considering where they drafted and the amount of resources and emphasis on the draft, it's bad with any negative adjective you want to place in front of it.
There plan now seems hope. Hope players develop. Hope players perform better than expected. Hope players stay healthy. All while lowering the bar from "multiple championships" to "endless window of contention" to "playing competitive baseball".
Of course the ill informed will say they've done it before so we should believe they can do it again. The question I always ask those ill informed fans is how did they do it before and how does that apply in 2018? But that level of critical thinking skills are absent when comparing 2013-2015 to the present situation. Those previous years were built on:
a) an inherited perennial all-star performing at a HOF level.
b) an inherited player who was one of the best offensive 2b in the game (and offensively better those years than Josh Bell in 2018, mind you).
c) shrewd trades and acquisitions of veteran players like Burnett, Martin and Liriano
Notice how drafted and developed players are not listed. They represented a minority to the success of those teams.
But a-c aren't what's occurring in 2018. The perennial all star is now just an above average player. The 2b was dumped for a guy who couldn't get high school hitters out and despite the ill informed opinion NH can duplicate the Burnett/Martin/Liriano acquisitions, it's unlikely. Very unlikely.
First, the 2012-2015 teams had so many young players, they had a level of financial flexibility that does exist today. Secondly, it appears the rotation is set and seems highly unlikely they even consider another starter. Maybe a 3b, but anyone thinking that will be another Martin situation and not a Hudson situation isn't being realistic or honest.
So as I initially said, the future is founded on hope. Hope prospects develop and perform. When the history shows this front office does a very poor job drafting and developing prospects. If people want to blindly believe in that hope, ignore facts and history and continue to be ill informed, that's their business. It's what they front office wants fans to do. But I'll continue to be realistic when evaluating the organization. Doesn't make me negative or a bad fan either.
Lastly, everything could go right in 2018 and beyond and the Pirates achieve success. It could happen. But when you look at what they have done, what's going on around the rest of baseball and how this front office appears to be lagging behind, it's unlikely. To make matters worse, this hope philosophy prevents them from truly rebuilding. As we've seen, straddling the line between rebuilding and trying to win is usually a recipe for failure.
WOW!!! Aaron you put some great critical thinking into this post and I agree about 90%. The one thing that I disagree with you about is the seemingly lack of interest in having a few young kids who are "hope" prospects and reclamation projects.
I think every organization needs some of those.
I do agree with you that the organization can not compete over the long haul when the depend almost entirely on those "hope" type of players. All that does is sound the bell that the ownership is cheap and miserly.
As a long time Bucco fan I am guilty of believing the way of the "hope" player seems to work. But I have been rooting for this team for almost 60 yrs and have seen 3 WS victories. The dynamics of baseball and ownership have changed immensely since my childhood so I need younger guys like you and your critical thinking to get me back into a realistic mind frame when it comes to the success of the Buccos. See, who says you can't teach and old dog new tricks.
Thanks again for one of the best post OBN has ever seen.
REALITY
42636B426961060 wrote:
7) here's one I don't understand - if drafting and player development, and not money, are the essential elements in building a championship team, and money has little or no role, why would ANYONE support this FO? Our drafting and player development is atrocious. Literally, if we're expecting our farm system and development to be the signature of this team going forward then I think there's a good chance we're in year 2 of another 20 year losing streak. I have no idea how focusing solely on draft and development helps this FO.
I'd say mediocre rather than atrocious, but to be successful they have to be exemplary at this stuff. It's basically why I think the best strategy right now is to hold their cards and just hope everyone has a good year. I think the current group has a better chance of being good next year than the kids on the team and in the system have of being good in 2020.
At the conclusion of the 2017 season the Pirates rank 19th in WAR for drafted players since 2008 (down 1 spot from the previous year). That's slightly below average. Considering where they drafted and the amount of resources and emphasis on the draft, it's bad with any negative adjective you want to place in front of it.
There plan now seems hope. Hope players develop. Hope players perform better than expected. Hope players stay healthy. All while lowering the bar from "multiple championships" to "endless window of contention" to "playing competitive baseball".
Of course the ill informed will say they've done it before so we should believe they can do it again. The question I always ask those ill informed fans is how did they do it before and how does that apply in 2018? But that level of critical thinking skills are absent when comparing 2013-2015 to the present situation. Those previous years were built on:
a) an inherited perennial all-star performing at a HOF level.
b) an inherited player who was one of the best offensive 2b in the game (and offensively better those years than Josh Bell in 2018, mind you).
c) shrewd trades and acquisitions of veteran players like Burnett, Martin and Liriano
Notice how drafted and developed players are not listed. They represented a minority to the success of those teams.
But a-c aren't what's occurring in 2018. The perennial all star is now just an above average player. The 2b was dumped for a guy who couldn't get high school hitters out and despite the ill informed opinion NH can duplicate the Burnett/Martin/Liriano acquisitions, it's unlikely. Very unlikely.
First, the 2012-2015 teams had so many young players, they had a level of financial flexibility that does exist today. Secondly, it appears the rotation is set and seems highly unlikely they even consider another starter. Maybe a 3b, but anyone thinking that will be another Martin situation and not a Hudson situation isn't being realistic or honest.
So as I initially said, the future is founded on hope. Hope prospects develop and perform. When the history shows this front office does a very poor job drafting and developing prospects. If people want to blindly believe in that hope, ignore facts and history and continue to be ill informed, that's their business. It's what they front office wants fans to do. But I'll continue to be realistic when evaluating the organization. Doesn't make me negative or a bad fan either.
Lastly, everything could go right in 2018 and beyond and the Pirates achieve success. It could happen. But when you look at what they have done, what's going on around the rest of baseball and how this front office appears to be lagging behind, it's unlikely. To make matters worse, this hope philosophy prevents them from truly rebuilding. As we've seen, straddling the line between rebuilding and trying to win is usually a recipe for failure.
WOW!!! Aaron you put some great critical thinking into this post and I agree about 90%. The one thing that I disagree with you about is the seemingly lack of interest in having a few young kids who are "hope" prospects and reclamation projects.
I think every organization needs some of those.
I do agree with you that the organization can not compete over the long haul when the depend almost entirely on those "hope" type of players. All that does is sound the bell that the ownership is cheap and miserly.
As a long time Bucco fan I am guilty of believing the way of the "hope" player seems to work. But I have been rooting for this team for almost 60 yrs and have seen 3 WS victories. The dynamics of baseball and ownership have changed immensely since my childhood so I need younger guys like you and your critical thinking to get me back into a realistic mind frame when it comes to the success of the Buccos. See, who says you can't teach and old dog new tricks.
Thanks again for one of the best post OBN has ever seen.
If I made it seem I was against young players representing hope, it wasn't my intent. The 2013-2015 teams did have that with players like Cole, Polanco, and Mercer. But as I mentioned, they were a minority compared to where most of the success came from.
And when you realize the Pirates are basing their future on the hope of the young players, an area this front office has performed poorly, it's both naive to be optimistic and compare 2018 to those three seasons.
But thanks for the kind words. I've been holding back this particular post for many weeks as I wanted to see if one poster could acknowledge this on his own.
7) here's one I don't understand - if drafting and player development, and not money, are the essential elements in building a championship team, and money has little or no role, why would ANYONE support this FO? Our drafting and player development is atrocious. Literally, if we're expecting our farm system and development to be the signature of this team going forward then I think there's a good chance we're in year 2 of another 20 year losing streak. I have no idea how focusing solely on draft and development helps this FO.
I'd say mediocre rather than atrocious, but to be successful they have to be exemplary at this stuff. It's basically why I think the best strategy right now is to hold their cards and just hope everyone has a good year. I think the current group has a better chance of being good next year than the kids on the team and in the system have of being good in 2020.
At the conclusion of the 2017 season the Pirates rank 19th in WAR for drafted players since 2008 (down 1 spot from the previous year). That's slightly below average. Considering where they drafted and the amount of resources and emphasis on the draft, it's bad with any negative adjective you want to place in front of it.
There plan now seems hope. Hope players develop. Hope players perform better than expected. Hope players stay healthy. All while lowering the bar from "multiple championships" to "endless window of contention" to "playing competitive baseball".
Of course the ill informed will say they've done it before so we should believe they can do it again. The question I always ask those ill informed fans is how did they do it before and how does that apply in 2018? But that level of critical thinking skills are absent when comparing 2013-2015 to the present situation. Those previous years were built on:
a) an inherited perennial all-star performing at a HOF level.
b) an inherited player who was one of the best offensive 2b in the game (and offensively better those years than Josh Bell in 2018, mind you).
c) shrewd trades and acquisitions of veteran players like Burnett, Martin and Liriano
Notice how drafted and developed players are not listed. They represented a minority to the success of those teams.
But a-c aren't what's occurring in 2018. The perennial all star is now just an above average player. The 2b was dumped for a guy who couldn't get high school hitters out and despite the ill informed opinion NH can duplicate the Burnett/Martin/Liriano acquisitions, it's unlikely. Very unlikely.
First, the 2012-2015 teams had so many young players, they had a level of financial flexibility that does exist today. Secondly, it appears the rotation is set and seems highly unlikely they even consider another starter. Maybe a 3b, but anyone thinking that will be another Martin situation and not a Hudson situation isn't being realistic or honest.
So as I initially said, the future is founded on hope. Hope prospects develop and perform. When the history shows this front office does a very poor job drafting and developing prospects. If people want to blindly believe in that hope, ignore facts and history and continue to be ill informed, that's their business. It's what they front office wants fans to do. But I'll continue to be realistic when evaluating the organization. Doesn't make me negative or a bad fan either.
Lastly, everything could go right in 2018 and beyond and the Pirates achieve success. It could happen. But when you look at what they have done, what's going on around the rest of baseball and how this front office appears to be lagging behind, it's unlikely. To make matters worse, this hope philosophy prevents them from truly rebuilding. As we've seen, straddling the line between rebuilding and trying to win is usually a recipe for failure.
WOW!!! Aaron you put some great critical thinking into this post and I agree about 90%. The one thing that I disagree with you about is the seemingly lack of interest in having a few young kids who are "hope" prospects and reclamation projects.
I think every organization needs some of those.
I do agree with you that the organization can not compete over the long haul when the depend almost entirely on those "hope" type of players. All that does is sound the bell that the ownership is cheap and miserly.
As a long time Bucco fan I am guilty of believing the way of the "hope" player seems to work. But I have been rooting for this team for almost 60 yrs and have seen 3 WS victories. The dynamics of baseball and ownership have changed immensely since my childhood so I need younger guys like you and your critical thinking to get me back into a realistic mind frame when it comes to the success of the Buccos. See, who says you can't teach and old dog new tricks.
Thanks again for one of the best post OBN has ever seen.
If I made it seem I was against young players representing hope, it wasn't my intent. The 2013-2015 teams did have that with players like Cole, Polanco, and Mercer. But as I mentioned, they were a minority compared to where most of the success came from.
And when you realize the Pirates are basing their future on the hope of the young players, an area this front office has performed poorly, it's both naive to be optimistic and compare 2018 to those three seasons.
But thanks for the kind words. I've been holding back this particular post for many weeks as I wanted to see if one poster could acknowledge this on his own.
REALITY
unless Luplow's power is real, the Bucs don't have any one who hits for power in the minors that is seen as a good prospect and has at least played A ball (Meadows may be an exception).
Will Craig - hasn't hit
Tucker - seems to be more of an on base and speed player
Kramer - no power
Newman - no power
Hayes - no power yet, perhaps because of recovering from injury
Need to get some hitters into the organization soon and also hope something happens for the better to some players we already have. 17 teams hit 200 or more homers last year, 24 hit 186 or more. The Pirates hit 151.
Will Craig - hasn't hit
Tucker - seems to be more of an on base and speed player
Kramer - no power
Newman - no power
Hayes - no power yet, perhaps because of recovering from injury
Need to get some hitters into the organization soon and also hope something happens for the better to some players we already have. 17 teams hit 200 or more homers last year, 24 hit 186 or more. The Pirates hit 151.
REALITY
6040534E4F210 wrote:
7) here's one I don't understand - if drafting and player development, and not money, are the essential elements in building a championship team, and money has little or no role, why would ANYONE support this FO? Our drafting and player development is atrocious. Literally, if we're expecting our farm system and development to be the signature of this team going forward then I think there's a good chance we're in year 2 of another 20 year losing streak. I have no idea how focusing solely on draft and development helps this FO.
I'd say mediocre rather than atrocious, but to be successful they have to be exemplary at this stuff. It's basically why I think the best strategy right now is to hold their cards and just hope everyone has a good year. I think the current group has a better chance of being good next year than the kids on the team and in the system have of being good in 2020.
At the conclusion of the 2017 season the Pirates rank 19th in WAR for drafted players since 2008 (down 1 spot from the previous year). That's slightly below average. Considering where they drafted and the amount of resources and emphasis on the draft, it's bad with any negative adjective you want to place in front of it.
There plan now seems hope. Hope players develop. Hope players perform better than expected. Hope players stay healthy. All while lowering the bar from "multiple championships" to "endless window of contention" to "playing competitive baseball".
Of course the ill informed will say they've done it before so we should believe they can do it again. The question I always ask those ill informed fans is how did they do it before and how does that apply in 2018? But that level of critical thinking skills are absent when comparing 2013-2015 to the present situation. Those previous years were built on:
a) an inherited perennial all-star performing at a HOF level.
b) an inherited player who was one of the best offensive 2b in the game (and offensively better those years than Josh Bell in 2018, mind you).
c) shrewd trades and acquisitions of veteran players like Burnett, Martin and Liriano
Notice how drafted and developed players are not listed. They represented a minority to the success of those teams.
But a-c aren't what's occurring in 2018. The perennial all star is now just an above average player. The 2b was dumped for a guy who couldn't get high school hitters out and despite the ill informed opinion NH can duplicate the Burnett/Martin/Liriano acquisitions, it's unlikely. Very unlikely.
First, the 2012-2015 teams had so many young players, they had a level of financial flexibility that does exist today. Secondly, it appears the rotation is set and seems highly unlikely they even consider another starter. Maybe a 3b, but anyone thinking that will be another Martin situation and not a Hudson situation isn't being realistic or honest.
So as I initially said, the future is founded on hope. Hope prospects develop and perform. When the history shows this front office does a very poor job drafting and developing prospects. If people want to blindly believe in that hope, ignore facts and history and continue to be ill informed, that's their business. It's what they front office wants fans to do. But I'll continue to be realistic when evaluating the organization. Doesn't make me negative or a bad fan either.
Lastly, everything could go right in 2018 and beyond and the Pirates achieve success. It could happen. But when you look at what they have done, what's going on around the rest of baseball and how this front office appears to be lagging behind, it's unlikely. To make matters worse, this hope philosophy prevents them from truly rebuilding. As we've seen, straddling the line between rebuilding and trying to win is usually a recipe for failure.
Maybe Dogknot can give you a rebuttal on how "they can do it again." Nah he would have to actually put some thought into a post.
7) here's one I don't understand - if drafting and player development, and not money, are the essential elements in building a championship team, and money has little or no role, why would ANYONE support this FO? Our drafting and player development is atrocious. Literally, if we're expecting our farm system and development to be the signature of this team going forward then I think there's a good chance we're in year 2 of another 20 year losing streak. I have no idea how focusing solely on draft and development helps this FO.
I'd say mediocre rather than atrocious, but to be successful they have to be exemplary at this stuff. It's basically why I think the best strategy right now is to hold their cards and just hope everyone has a good year. I think the current group has a better chance of being good next year than the kids on the team and in the system have of being good in 2020.
At the conclusion of the 2017 season the Pirates rank 19th in WAR for drafted players since 2008 (down 1 spot from the previous year). That's slightly below average. Considering where they drafted and the amount of resources and emphasis on the draft, it's bad with any negative adjective you want to place in front of it.
There plan now seems hope. Hope players develop. Hope players perform better than expected. Hope players stay healthy. All while lowering the bar from "multiple championships" to "endless window of contention" to "playing competitive baseball".
Of course the ill informed will say they've done it before so we should believe they can do it again. The question I always ask those ill informed fans is how did they do it before and how does that apply in 2018? But that level of critical thinking skills are absent when comparing 2013-2015 to the present situation. Those previous years were built on:
a) an inherited perennial all-star performing at a HOF level.
b) an inherited player who was one of the best offensive 2b in the game (and offensively better those years than Josh Bell in 2018, mind you).
c) shrewd trades and acquisitions of veteran players like Burnett, Martin and Liriano
Notice how drafted and developed players are not listed. They represented a minority to the success of those teams.
But a-c aren't what's occurring in 2018. The perennial all star is now just an above average player. The 2b was dumped for a guy who couldn't get high school hitters out and despite the ill informed opinion NH can duplicate the Burnett/Martin/Liriano acquisitions, it's unlikely. Very unlikely.
First, the 2012-2015 teams had so many young players, they had a level of financial flexibility that does exist today. Secondly, it appears the rotation is set and seems highly unlikely they even consider another starter. Maybe a 3b, but anyone thinking that will be another Martin situation and not a Hudson situation isn't being realistic or honest.
So as I initially said, the future is founded on hope. Hope prospects develop and perform. When the history shows this front office does a very poor job drafting and developing prospects. If people want to blindly believe in that hope, ignore facts and history and continue to be ill informed, that's their business. It's what they front office wants fans to do. But I'll continue to be realistic when evaluating the organization. Doesn't make me negative or a bad fan either.
Lastly, everything could go right in 2018 and beyond and the Pirates achieve success. It could happen. But when you look at what they have done, what's going on around the rest of baseball and how this front office appears to be lagging behind, it's unlikely. To make matters worse, this hope philosophy prevents them from truly rebuilding. As we've seen, straddling the line between rebuilding and trying to win is usually a recipe for failure.
Maybe Dogknot can give you a rebuttal on how "they can do it again." Nah he would have to actually put some thought into a post.
REALITY
538 crunched the numbers to figure out what stats best predict a team's future performance over a period of five years.
We gathered data on all MLB teams from 1988 to 2012 and tried to see which factors best predicted their win totals over the following five seasons. After testing different combinations,2 we found that five metrics emerged as significant predictors of a team’s future record: A team’s Elo rating through the end of the World Series (which contributed about 33 percent to a team’s future win projection); its batting wins above replacement (WAR)3 (29 percent); its pitching WAR (13 percent); and the average ages — weighted by playing time — of its batters (6 percent) and pitchers (12 percent) — plus a bonus for making the World Series (7 percent).4
The Pirates currently rank 24th. The Cubs, Cards and Brewers are in the top eleven. Talent isn't a fixed amount over time, so I guess the question is whether the major league team can accumulate more at a rate faster than their counterparts.
At this point, I'm kind of skeptical.
We gathered data on all MLB teams from 1988 to 2012 and tried to see which factors best predicted their win totals over the following five seasons. After testing different combinations,2 we found that five metrics emerged as significant predictors of a team’s future record: A team’s Elo rating through the end of the World Series (which contributed about 33 percent to a team’s future win projection); its batting wins above replacement (WAR)3 (29 percent); its pitching WAR (13 percent); and the average ages — weighted by playing time — of its batters (6 percent) and pitchers (12 percent) — plus a bonus for making the World Series (7 percent).4
The Pirates currently rank 24th. The Cubs, Cards and Brewers are in the top eleven. Talent isn't a fixed amount over time, so I guess the question is whether the major league team can accumulate more at a rate faster than their counterparts.
At this point, I'm kind of skeptical.
REALITY
535249584E0E093D0 wrote:
7) here's one I don't understand - if drafting and player development, and not money, are the essential elements in building a championship team, and money has little or no role, why would ANYONE support this FO? Our drafting and player development is atrocious. Literally, if we're expecting our farm system and development to be the signature of this team going forward then I think there's a good chance we're in year 2 of another 20 year losing streak. I have no idea how focusing solely on draft and development helps this FO.
I'd say mediocre rather than atrocious, but to be successful they have to be exemplary at this stuff. It's basically why I think the best strategy right now is to hold their cards and just hope everyone has a good year. I think the current group has a better chance of being good next year than the kids on the team and in the system have of being good in 2020.
At the conclusion of the 2017 season the Pirates rank 19th in WAR for drafted players since 2008 (down 1 spot from the previous year). That's slightly below average. Considering where they drafted and the amount of resources and emphasis on the draft, it's bad with any negative adjective you want to place in front of it.
There plan now seems hope. Hope players develop. Hope players perform better than expected. Hope players stay healthy. All while lowering the bar from "multiple championships" to "endless window of contention" to "playing competitive baseball".
Of course the ill informed will say they've done it before so we should believe they can do it again. The question I always ask those ill informed fans is how did they do it before and how does that apply in 2018? But that level of critical thinking skills are absent when comparing 2013-2015 to the present situation. Those previous years were built on:
a) an inherited perennial all-star performing at a HOF level.
b) an inherited player who was one of the best offensive 2b in the game (and offensively better those years than Josh Bell in 2018, mind you).
c) shrewd trades and acquisitions of veteran players like Burnett, Martin and Liriano
Notice how drafted and developed players are not listed. They represented a minority to the success of those teams.
But a-c aren't what's occurring in 2018. The perennial all star is now just an above average player. The 2b was dumped for a guy who couldn't get high school hitters out and despite the ill informed opinion NH can duplicate the Burnett/Martin/Liriano acquisitions, it's unlikely. Very unlikely.
First, the 2012-2015 teams had so many young players, they had a level of financial flexibility that does exist today. Secondly, it appears the rotation is set and seems highly unlikely they even consider another starter. Maybe a 3b, but anyone thinking that will be another Martin situation and not a Hudson situation isn't being realistic or honest.
So as I initially said, the future is founded on hope. Hope prospects develop and perform. When the history shows this front office does a very poor job drafting and developing prospects. If people want to blindly believe in that hope, ignore facts and history and continue to be ill informed, that's their business. It's what they front office wants fans to do. But I'll continue to be realistic when evaluating the organization. Doesn't make me negative or a bad fan either.
Lastly, everything could go right in 2018 and beyond and the Pirates achieve success. It could happen. But when you look at what they have done, what's going on around the rest of baseball and how this front office appears to be lagging behind, it's unlikely. To make matters worse, this hope philosophy prevents them from truly rebuilding. As we've seen, straddling the line between rebuilding and trying to win is usually a recipe for failure.
Maybe Dogknot can give you a rebuttal on how "they can do it again." Nah he would have to actually put some thought into a post.
Conspicuously silent.
7) here's one I don't understand - if drafting and player development, and not money, are the essential elements in building a championship team, and money has little or no role, why would ANYONE support this FO? Our drafting and player development is atrocious. Literally, if we're expecting our farm system and development to be the signature of this team going forward then I think there's a good chance we're in year 2 of another 20 year losing streak. I have no idea how focusing solely on draft and development helps this FO.
I'd say mediocre rather than atrocious, but to be successful they have to be exemplary at this stuff. It's basically why I think the best strategy right now is to hold their cards and just hope everyone has a good year. I think the current group has a better chance of being good next year than the kids on the team and in the system have of being good in 2020.
At the conclusion of the 2017 season the Pirates rank 19th in WAR for drafted players since 2008 (down 1 spot from the previous year). That's slightly below average. Considering where they drafted and the amount of resources and emphasis on the draft, it's bad with any negative adjective you want to place in front of it.
There plan now seems hope. Hope players develop. Hope players perform better than expected. Hope players stay healthy. All while lowering the bar from "multiple championships" to "endless window of contention" to "playing competitive baseball".
Of course the ill informed will say they've done it before so we should believe they can do it again. The question I always ask those ill informed fans is how did they do it before and how does that apply in 2018? But that level of critical thinking skills are absent when comparing 2013-2015 to the present situation. Those previous years were built on:
a) an inherited perennial all-star performing at a HOF level.
b) an inherited player who was one of the best offensive 2b in the game (and offensively better those years than Josh Bell in 2018, mind you).
c) shrewd trades and acquisitions of veteran players like Burnett, Martin and Liriano
Notice how drafted and developed players are not listed. They represented a minority to the success of those teams.
But a-c aren't what's occurring in 2018. The perennial all star is now just an above average player. The 2b was dumped for a guy who couldn't get high school hitters out and despite the ill informed opinion NH can duplicate the Burnett/Martin/Liriano acquisitions, it's unlikely. Very unlikely.
First, the 2012-2015 teams had so many young players, they had a level of financial flexibility that does exist today. Secondly, it appears the rotation is set and seems highly unlikely they even consider another starter. Maybe a 3b, but anyone thinking that will be another Martin situation and not a Hudson situation isn't being realistic or honest.
So as I initially said, the future is founded on hope. Hope prospects develop and perform. When the history shows this front office does a very poor job drafting and developing prospects. If people want to blindly believe in that hope, ignore facts and history and continue to be ill informed, that's their business. It's what they front office wants fans to do. But I'll continue to be realistic when evaluating the organization. Doesn't make me negative or a bad fan either.
Lastly, everything could go right in 2018 and beyond and the Pirates achieve success. It could happen. But when you look at what they have done, what's going on around the rest of baseball and how this front office appears to be lagging behind, it's unlikely. To make matters worse, this hope philosophy prevents them from truly rebuilding. As we've seen, straddling the line between rebuilding and trying to win is usually a recipe for failure.
Maybe Dogknot can give you a rebuttal on how "they can do it again." Nah he would have to actually put some thought into a post.
Conspicuously silent.
-
rucker59@gmail.com
REALITY
58786B7677190 wrote:
7) here's one I don't understand - if drafting and player development, and not money, are the essential elements in building a championship team, and money has little or no role, why would ANYONE support this FO? Our drafting and player development is atrocious. Literally, if we're expecting our farm system and development to be the signature of this team going forward then I think there's a good chance we're in year 2 of another 20 year losing streak. I have no idea how focusing solely on draft and development helps this FO.
I'd say mediocre rather than atrocious, but to be successful they have to be exemplary at this stuff. It's basically why I think the best strategy right now is to hold their cards and just hope everyone has a good year. I think the current group has a better chance of being good next year than the kids on the team and in the system have of being good in 2020.
At the conclusion of the 2017 season the Pirates rank 19th in WAR for drafted players since 2008 (down 1 spot from the previous year). That's slightly below average. Considering where they drafted and the amount of resources and emphasis on the draft, it's bad with any negative adjective you want to place in front of it.
There plan now seems hope. Hope players develop. Hope players perform better than expected. Hope players stay healthy. All while lowering the bar from "multiple championships" to "endless window of contention" to "playing competitive baseball".
Of course the ill informed will say they've done it before so we should believe they can do it again. The question I always ask those ill informed fans is how did they do it before and how does that apply in 2018? But that level of critical thinking skills are absent when comparing 2013-2015 to the present situation. Those previous years were built on:
a) an inherited perennial all-star performing at a HOF level.
b) an inherited player who was one of the best offensive 2b in the game (and offensively better those years than Josh Bell in 2018, mind you).
c) shrewd trades and acquisitions of veteran players like Burnett, Martin and Liriano
Notice how drafted and developed players are not listed. They represented a minority to the success of those teams.
But a-c aren't what's occurring in 2018. The perennial all star is now just an above average player. The 2b was dumped for a guy who couldn't get high school hitters out and despite the ill informed opinion NH can duplicate the Burnett/Martin/Liriano acquisitions, it's unlikely. Very unlikely.
First, the 2012-2015 teams had so many young players, they had a level of financial flexibility that does exist today. Secondly, it appears the rotation is set and seems highly unlikely they even consider another starter. Maybe a 3b, but anyone thinking that will be another Martin situation and not a Hudson situation isn't being realistic or honest.
So as I initially said, the future is founded on hope. Hope prospects develop and perform. When the history shows this front office does a very poor job drafting and developing prospects. If people want to blindly believe in that hope, ignore facts and history and continue to be ill informed, that's their business. It's what they front office wants fans to do. But I'll continue to be realistic when evaluating the organization. Doesn't make me negative or a bad fan either.
Lastly, everything could go right in 2018 and beyond and the Pirates achieve success. It could happen. But when you look at what they have done, what's going on around the rest of baseball and how this front office appears to be lagging behind, it's unlikely. To make matters worse, this hope philosophy prevents them from truly rebuilding. As we've seen, straddling the line between rebuilding and trying to win is usually a recipe for failure.
Good post.
I've been trying to say similar ideas for a year and a half, and the same old pointless response is offered each time.
I think Neal deserves a ton of credit for bringing winning baseball and that can be attributed to a well executed plan. In the beginning there was a "plan" being worked out. But the plan only worked because of very low payroll due to very young team and a couple brilliant trades.
There were signs that the same plan would not work with a maturing payroll - I'm more and more convinced that AJ was the most important player on those winning teams. The fact Neal let AJ walk over a few million is darn good evidence that the FO "internal valuation" is not a good way to sustain a team. ie, the Plan can't sustain success. Internal valuation is a roadblock to success when the rest of MLB recognizes they have compete with external valuations.
I wonder what 2015 would have been if AJ had not called Neal and taken a pay cut? AJ brought AJ back, if was a gift to Neal never to be seen again. Otherwise AJ would have been gone over a few million dollars.
The Liarino contract was an eye opener of further weakness in "the plan" it was all great as long as he OVERPREFORMED, but when his performance flipped for half a season the reaction from the FO was so extreme. Now there is a sense that long term contracts are outside of the Pirates' ability to pay. People actually talk about JHay's contract being a burden. If the Plan was to sign young talent to favorable long term contracts that the team can't manage at the back end, then the plan is not workable.
Which leads to a summary of your post: there seems to be no plan now. The direction of the team feels as rudderless as it was under Littlefield. Hoping and wishing and AJ taking a pay cut is not a plan.
Add to this the FO's attempt to shift blame to the fans and you end up with disillusionment and anger - Our current location on the map.
Bob Nutting has the opportunity to start over this off season. If he follows the same pattern this off season there is NO reason to expect the Pirates to contend and '13-'15 have literally zero in common with 2018.
7) here's one I don't understand - if drafting and player development, and not money, are the essential elements in building a championship team, and money has little or no role, why would ANYONE support this FO? Our drafting and player development is atrocious. Literally, if we're expecting our farm system and development to be the signature of this team going forward then I think there's a good chance we're in year 2 of another 20 year losing streak. I have no idea how focusing solely on draft and development helps this FO.
I'd say mediocre rather than atrocious, but to be successful they have to be exemplary at this stuff. It's basically why I think the best strategy right now is to hold their cards and just hope everyone has a good year. I think the current group has a better chance of being good next year than the kids on the team and in the system have of being good in 2020.
At the conclusion of the 2017 season the Pirates rank 19th in WAR for drafted players since 2008 (down 1 spot from the previous year). That's slightly below average. Considering where they drafted and the amount of resources and emphasis on the draft, it's bad with any negative adjective you want to place in front of it.
There plan now seems hope. Hope players develop. Hope players perform better than expected. Hope players stay healthy. All while lowering the bar from "multiple championships" to "endless window of contention" to "playing competitive baseball".
Of course the ill informed will say they've done it before so we should believe they can do it again. The question I always ask those ill informed fans is how did they do it before and how does that apply in 2018? But that level of critical thinking skills are absent when comparing 2013-2015 to the present situation. Those previous years were built on:
a) an inherited perennial all-star performing at a HOF level.
b) an inherited player who was one of the best offensive 2b in the game (and offensively better those years than Josh Bell in 2018, mind you).
c) shrewd trades and acquisitions of veteran players like Burnett, Martin and Liriano
Notice how drafted and developed players are not listed. They represented a minority to the success of those teams.
But a-c aren't what's occurring in 2018. The perennial all star is now just an above average player. The 2b was dumped for a guy who couldn't get high school hitters out and despite the ill informed opinion NH can duplicate the Burnett/Martin/Liriano acquisitions, it's unlikely. Very unlikely.
First, the 2012-2015 teams had so many young players, they had a level of financial flexibility that does exist today. Secondly, it appears the rotation is set and seems highly unlikely they even consider another starter. Maybe a 3b, but anyone thinking that will be another Martin situation and not a Hudson situation isn't being realistic or honest.
So as I initially said, the future is founded on hope. Hope prospects develop and perform. When the history shows this front office does a very poor job drafting and developing prospects. If people want to blindly believe in that hope, ignore facts and history and continue to be ill informed, that's their business. It's what they front office wants fans to do. But I'll continue to be realistic when evaluating the organization. Doesn't make me negative or a bad fan either.
Lastly, everything could go right in 2018 and beyond and the Pirates achieve success. It could happen. But when you look at what they have done, what's going on around the rest of baseball and how this front office appears to be lagging behind, it's unlikely. To make matters worse, this hope philosophy prevents them from truly rebuilding. As we've seen, straddling the line between rebuilding and trying to win is usually a recipe for failure.
Good post.
I've been trying to say similar ideas for a year and a half, and the same old pointless response is offered each time.
I think Neal deserves a ton of credit for bringing winning baseball and that can be attributed to a well executed plan. In the beginning there was a "plan" being worked out. But the plan only worked because of very low payroll due to very young team and a couple brilliant trades.
There were signs that the same plan would not work with a maturing payroll - I'm more and more convinced that AJ was the most important player on those winning teams. The fact Neal let AJ walk over a few million is darn good evidence that the FO "internal valuation" is not a good way to sustain a team. ie, the Plan can't sustain success. Internal valuation is a roadblock to success when the rest of MLB recognizes they have compete with external valuations.
I wonder what 2015 would have been if AJ had not called Neal and taken a pay cut? AJ brought AJ back, if was a gift to Neal never to be seen again. Otherwise AJ would have been gone over a few million dollars.
The Liarino contract was an eye opener of further weakness in "the plan" it was all great as long as he OVERPREFORMED, but when his performance flipped for half a season the reaction from the FO was so extreme. Now there is a sense that long term contracts are outside of the Pirates' ability to pay. People actually talk about JHay's contract being a burden. If the Plan was to sign young talent to favorable long term contracts that the team can't manage at the back end, then the plan is not workable.
Which leads to a summary of your post: there seems to be no plan now. The direction of the team feels as rudderless as it was under Littlefield. Hoping and wishing and AJ taking a pay cut is not a plan.
Add to this the FO's attempt to shift blame to the fans and you end up with disillusionment and anger - Our current location on the map.
Bob Nutting has the opportunity to start over this off season. If he follows the same pattern this off season there is NO reason to expect the Pirates to contend and '13-'15 have literally zero in common with 2018.
REALITY
2202110C0D630 wrote:
7) here's one I don't understand - if drafting and player development, and not money, are the essential elements in building a championship team, and money has little or no role, why would ANYONE support this FO? Our drafting and player development is atrocious. Literally, if we're expecting our farm system and development to be the signature of this team going forward then I think there's a good chance we're in year 2 of another 20 year losing streak. I have no idea how focusing solely on draft and development helps this FO.
I'd say mediocre rather than atrocious, but to be successful they have to be exemplary at this stuff. It's basically why I think the best strategy right now is to hold their cards and just hope everyone has a good year. I think the current group has a better chance of being good next year than the kids on the team and in the system have of being good in 2020.
At the conclusion of the 2017 season the Pirates rank 19th in WAR for drafted players since 2008 (down 1 spot from the previous year). That's slightly below average. Considering where they drafted and the amount of resources and emphasis on the draft, it's bad with any negative adjective you want to place in front of it.
There plan now seems hope. Hope players develop. Hope players perform better than expected. Hope players stay healthy. All while lowering the bar from "multiple championships" to "endless window of contention" to "playing competitive baseball".
Of course the ill informed will say they've done it before so we should believe they can do it again. The question I always ask those ill informed fans is how did they do it before and how does that apply in 2018? But that level of critical thinking skills are absent when comparing 2013-2015 to the present situation. Those previous years were built on:
a) an inherited perennial all-star performing at a HOF level.
b) an inherited player who was one of the best offensive 2b in the game (and offensively better those years than Josh Bell in 2018, mind you).
c) shrewd trades and acquisitions of veteran players like Burnett, Martin and Liriano
Notice how drafted and developed players are not listed. They represented a minority to the success of those teams.
But a-c aren't what's occurring in 2018. The perennial all star is now just an above average player. The 2b was dumped for a guy who couldn't get high school hitters out and despite the ill informed opinion NH can duplicate the Burnett/Martin/Liriano acquisitions, it's unlikely. Very unlikely.
First, the 2012-2015 teams had so many young players, they had a level of financial flexibility that does exist today. Secondly, it appears the rotation is set and seems highly unlikely they even consider another starter. Maybe a 3b, but anyone thinking that will be another Martin situation and not a Hudson situation isn't being realistic or honest.
So as I initially said, the future is founded on hope. Hope prospects develop and perform. When the history shows this front office does a very poor job drafting and developing prospects. If people want to blindly believe in that hope, ignore facts and history and continue to be ill informed, that's their business. It's what they front office wants fans to do. But I'll continue to be realistic when evaluating the organization. Doesn't make me negative or a bad fan either.
Lastly, everything could go right in 2018 and beyond and the Pirates achieve success. It could happen. But when you look at what they have done, what's going on around the rest of baseball and how this front office appears to be lagging behind, it's unlikely. To make matters worse, this hope philosophy prevents them from truly rebuilding. As we've seen, straddling the line between rebuilding and trying to win is usually a recipe for failure.
Very thought provoking post. I agree with much of what you wrote. I do think you underplay the role of hope in those FA acquisitions of the playoff years. Burnett, Liriano, and Martin were HUGE question marks when they arrived. All three had just come off recent performances that were so bad, the Pirates basically acquired them for free. There was a ton of hope that surrounded those years and specifically with those players.
I think the best point you made is that the Pirates are out of financial flexibility. All of those core players that were part of the team in the playoff years are in arbitration and making exponentially more. If the payroll is going to stay between 100-110 million, they need to be traded for a bunch of prospects. Then, we need to make another run when they are all pre arb and add some FAs like you mentioned.
PS, fantastic stat about the Pirates drafted WAR. That's pretty damning considering the vision of the FO.
7) here's one I don't understand - if drafting and player development, and not money, are the essential elements in building a championship team, and money has little or no role, why would ANYONE support this FO? Our drafting and player development is atrocious. Literally, if we're expecting our farm system and development to be the signature of this team going forward then I think there's a good chance we're in year 2 of another 20 year losing streak. I have no idea how focusing solely on draft and development helps this FO.
I'd say mediocre rather than atrocious, but to be successful they have to be exemplary at this stuff. It's basically why I think the best strategy right now is to hold their cards and just hope everyone has a good year. I think the current group has a better chance of being good next year than the kids on the team and in the system have of being good in 2020.
At the conclusion of the 2017 season the Pirates rank 19th in WAR for drafted players since 2008 (down 1 spot from the previous year). That's slightly below average. Considering where they drafted and the amount of resources and emphasis on the draft, it's bad with any negative adjective you want to place in front of it.
There plan now seems hope. Hope players develop. Hope players perform better than expected. Hope players stay healthy. All while lowering the bar from "multiple championships" to "endless window of contention" to "playing competitive baseball".
Of course the ill informed will say they've done it before so we should believe they can do it again. The question I always ask those ill informed fans is how did they do it before and how does that apply in 2018? But that level of critical thinking skills are absent when comparing 2013-2015 to the present situation. Those previous years were built on:
a) an inherited perennial all-star performing at a HOF level.
b) an inherited player who was one of the best offensive 2b in the game (and offensively better those years than Josh Bell in 2018, mind you).
c) shrewd trades and acquisitions of veteran players like Burnett, Martin and Liriano
Notice how drafted and developed players are not listed. They represented a minority to the success of those teams.
But a-c aren't what's occurring in 2018. The perennial all star is now just an above average player. The 2b was dumped for a guy who couldn't get high school hitters out and despite the ill informed opinion NH can duplicate the Burnett/Martin/Liriano acquisitions, it's unlikely. Very unlikely.
First, the 2012-2015 teams had so many young players, they had a level of financial flexibility that does exist today. Secondly, it appears the rotation is set and seems highly unlikely they even consider another starter. Maybe a 3b, but anyone thinking that will be another Martin situation and not a Hudson situation isn't being realistic or honest.
So as I initially said, the future is founded on hope. Hope prospects develop and perform. When the history shows this front office does a very poor job drafting and developing prospects. If people want to blindly believe in that hope, ignore facts and history and continue to be ill informed, that's their business. It's what they front office wants fans to do. But I'll continue to be realistic when evaluating the organization. Doesn't make me negative or a bad fan either.
Lastly, everything could go right in 2018 and beyond and the Pirates achieve success. It could happen. But when you look at what they have done, what's going on around the rest of baseball and how this front office appears to be lagging behind, it's unlikely. To make matters worse, this hope philosophy prevents them from truly rebuilding. As we've seen, straddling the line between rebuilding and trying to win is usually a recipe for failure.
Very thought provoking post. I agree with much of what you wrote. I do think you underplay the role of hope in those FA acquisitions of the playoff years. Burnett, Liriano, and Martin were HUGE question marks when they arrived. All three had just come off recent performances that were so bad, the Pirates basically acquired them for free. There was a ton of hope that surrounded those years and specifically with those players.
I think the best point you made is that the Pirates are out of financial flexibility. All of those core players that were part of the team in the playoff years are in arbitration and making exponentially more. If the payroll is going to stay between 100-110 million, they need to be traded for a bunch of prospects. Then, we need to make another run when they are all pre arb and add some FAs like you mentioned.
PS, fantastic stat about the Pirates drafted WAR. That's pretty damning considering the vision of the FO.
-
rucker59@gmail.com
REALITY
7B485455565E68554E52494E5F53543A0 wrote:
7) here's one I don't understand - if drafting and player development, and not money, are the essential elements in building a championship team, and money has little or no role, why would ANYONE support this FO? Our drafting and player development is atrocious. Literally, if we're expecting our farm system and development to be the signature of this team going forward then I think there's a good chance we're in year 2 of another 20 year losing streak. I have no idea how focusing solely on draft and development helps this FO.
I'd say mediocre rather than atrocious, but to be successful they have to be exemplary at this stuff. It's basically why I think the best strategy right now is to hold their cards and just hope everyone has a good year. I think the current group has a better chance of being good next year than the kids on the team and in the system have of being good in 2020.
I wanted to come back to this post because of a very important point: I think Babe nails a point that will be reality within just a year or two: this team in 2019 and certainly 2020 could have the bottom fall out. Another example of a failed plan ultimately: the FO would not move prospects to help the current team, but there is little to think the farm system is going to replace the core of the 2013-15 teams. With the current approach it could well be years before the Pirates are truly contenders.
7) here's one I don't understand - if drafting and player development, and not money, are the essential elements in building a championship team, and money has little or no role, why would ANYONE support this FO? Our drafting and player development is atrocious. Literally, if we're expecting our farm system and development to be the signature of this team going forward then I think there's a good chance we're in year 2 of another 20 year losing streak. I have no idea how focusing solely on draft and development helps this FO.
I'd say mediocre rather than atrocious, but to be successful they have to be exemplary at this stuff. It's basically why I think the best strategy right now is to hold their cards and just hope everyone has a good year. I think the current group has a better chance of being good next year than the kids on the team and in the system have of being good in 2020.
I wanted to come back to this post because of a very important point: I think Babe nails a point that will be reality within just a year or two: this team in 2019 and certainly 2020 could have the bottom fall out. Another example of a failed plan ultimately: the FO would not move prospects to help the current team, but there is little to think the farm system is going to replace the core of the 2013-15 teams. With the current approach it could well be years before the Pirates are truly contenders.