OnlyBucs

2229212D2829327771063F272E2929682529460 wrote: It's a fact that Rivero has pitched in more high leverage situation than any other bullpen pitcher.



There is no guarantee you get to the 9th inning if you save the best for that role. Hurdle did mention that and pointed out how Cleveland uses Andrew Miller.  Miller hasn't closed out games either.


He has never closed out a game once.  Either what's being fed to you is utter BS, like usual, or there hasn't been a single situation since opening day that the 9th inning is the highest leverage situation



Stop living in a fantasy world of absolutes.  It's not possible that he's being used as the highest leverage situational relief pitcher and not one time close out a game.  It's common sense. 



If he occasionally finished a game when the situation called for it, it would be believable.  He doesn't.  So it's not true.  It sounds decent enough but it doesn't stand up to common sense



Edit:. Well what do ya know? baseball reference shows that Tony Watson by FAR has pitched the most in high leverage situations, while Rivero is even split between high, medium, and low.



That makes perfect (common) sense since only one of the above mentioned pitchers is allowed to close out a game in a save situation.



That's all changing now though. So everyone might as well stop crying about it. Watson is done. Rivero is in

6B60686461607B3E384F766E676060216C600F0 wrote: It's a fact that Rivero has pitched in more high leverage situation than any other bullpen pitcher.



There is no guarantee you get to the 9th inning if you save the best for that role. Hurdle did mention that and pointed out how Cleveland uses Andrew Miller.  Miller hasn't closed out games either.
I agree with that. However, there's no reason a reliever has to close no matter what simply because he's the designated closer or can't be used to close simply because he hasn't been so designated. By the 9th inning last night Rivero was available and, in fact, was used later in the 10th after Watson had already blown the game. Watson has been bad for quite a while now and Rivero has been unhittable. It was a no brainer for everyone except Hurdle. Instead of using Rivero, who was obviously available to put that win in the books, he had Rivero sit and watch Watson, who routinely fails, blow yet another game. That wouldn't have to mean roles were changing. He could have given Watson a night off. Or he could replace Watson as closer with Nicasio and leave Rivero in his current role. But for that game, the only thing that prevented a win was the tag Hurdle puts in front of his relievers' names. Only the closer can close. Formula managing at it's best.

200D00111607105053620 wrote: It's a fact that Rivero has pitched in more high leverage situation than any other bullpen pitcher.



There is no guarantee you get to the 9th inning if you save the best for that role. Hurdle did mention that and pointed out how Cleveland uses Andrew Miller.  Miller hasn't closed out games either.
I agree with that. However, there's no reason a reliever has to close no matter what simply because he's the designated closer or can't be used to close simply because he hasn't been so designated. By the 9th inning last night Rivero was available and, in fact, was used later in the 10th after Watson had already blown the game. Watson has been bad for quite a while now and Rivero has been unhittable. It was a no brainer for everyone except Hurdle. Instead of using Rivero, who was obviously available to put that win in the books, he had Rivero sit and watch Watson, who routinely fails, blow yet another game. That wouldn't have to mean roles were changing. He could have given Watson a night off. Or he could replace Watson as closer with Nicasio and leave Rivero in his current role. But for that game, the only thing that prevented a win was the tag Hurdle puts in front of his relievers' names. Only the closer can close. Formula managing at it's best. 




I would not be surprised if Hurdle uses someone else to close next time. In his mind, he needed to give Watson another chance (like riding a bike, if you fall off you need to get back on right away). Unfortunately, it should have been clear from his time as closer that Watson was not the pitcher he was in 2014 and 2015. I wonder what advice the Pirate analytics team was sending on Watson.



This season has gone down the drain and not much evident effort has been made to stop it.

4B424A5B552F0 wrote: It's a fact that Rivero has pitched in more high leverage situation than any other bullpen pitcher.



There is no guarantee you get to the 9th inning if you save the best for that role. Hurdle did mention that and pointed out how Cleveland uses Andrew Miller.  Miller hasn't closed out games either.


He has never closed out a game once.  Either what's being fed to you is utter BS, like usual, or there hasn't been a single situation since opening day that the 9th inning is the highest leverage situation



Stop living in a fantasy world of absolutes.  It's not possible that he's being used as the highest leverage situational relief pitcher and not one time close out a game.  It's common sense. 



If he occasionally finished a game when the situation called for it, it would be believable.  He doesn't.  So it's not true.  It sounds decent enough but it doesn't stand up to common sense



Edit:. Well what do ya know?  baseball reference shows that Tony Watson by FAR has pitched the most in high leverage situations, while Rivero is even split between high, medium, and low.



That makes perfect (common) sense since only one of the above mentioned pitchers is allowed to close out a game in a save situation.



That's all changing now though.  So everyone might as well stop crying about it.  Watson is done.  Rivero is in


I said more, key word.



Please share the Baseball Reference stats. I am interested.

How do they define high leverage? A save opportunity? Obviously he would have a lot of those if that's how they define it. Not accusing here, just asking.

*Rivero has entered the game 8 times with runners on base and has inherited 12 runners.  23 times he entered with no one on base.



*Watson has entered the game twice with runners on base and had inherited 4 runners.  22 times he entered with no one on base.



They both gave up two runs that were inherited.





*Baseball Reference

I would say that if the winning run comes up to the plate in the 9th during an away game then that's a high-leverage situation. One swing could be a walk-off tie or win, just as we have seen. Of course Watson often causes himself to be in high-leverage situations but letting guys get on base.

6A6F686E666C756861727479000 wrote: I would say that if the winning run comes up to the plate in the 9th during an away game then that's a high-leverage situation.  One swing could be a walk-off tie or win, just as we have seen.  Of course Watson often causes himself to be in high-leverage situations but letting guys get on base.
I couldn't find a clear definition on baseballreference but I did see that they base it on the situation at the time the reliever enters rather than the mess he creates for himself.

Found this.  Not much help, other than telling us is pretty well thought out.





Leverage Index



Within a game, there are plays that are more pivotal than others. We attempt to quantify these plays with a stat called leverage index (LI). LI looks at the possible changes in win probability in a given situation; situations where dramatic swings in win probability are possible (e.g. runner on second late in a tie game) have higher LIs than situations where there can be no large change in win probability (e.g. late innings of a 12-run blowout).



The stat is normalized so that on average the leverage is 1.00. In tense situations, the leverage is higher than 1.00 (up to about 10) and in low-tension situations, the leverage is between 0 and 1.0.




http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/wpa.shtml

5A535B4A443E0 wrote:



Edit:. Well what do ya know?  baseball reference shows that Tony Watson by FAR has pitched the most in high leverage situations, while Rivero is even split between high, medium, and low.






So, Watson is creating his own high leverage situations. He isn't coming into the game with a high LI unlike Rivero. Four inherited runners compared to twelve would also demonstrate that.