Game thread 4/8 vs Reds
Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:51 am
484043746247606F010 wrote: Two more thoughts...last year, the Pirates finished 75-87. But, they were 6-13 against the Reds. If you just kept everything else the same, and reversed the record against the Reds to 13-6, we're 82-80.
And I can't help but be disappointed. I can't help but feel like we really should be 9-0, or at worst 8-1. Wednesday against the Twins, according to Fangraphs' win probability, we were as high as 77.4%, even 74% as late as the fifth inning. Yesterday against the Reds, they were at 90% after Frazier's RBI single. I don't think you should ever lose a game you're leading 4-0, certainly not to a terrible team like the Reds. Imagine the buzz around this team if they were 9-0.
I guess the flip side of that was Opening Day where the Tigers had a 90% chance to win at one point. Regardless, it's only nine games, but I'm cautiously optimistic about this team.
Your point about the impact to our record if we just take care of business against the poor teams is right on. If the Pirates can play around .500 ball against the better team, heck just against the rest baseball other than the Reds, and they win 14 of 19 against the Reds, that would get the team to about 86 wins. Getting pretty close to WC status.
Also, I agree about the 2 that got away. The Pirates should be 9-0. They blew 4 run leads in both loses. Maybe that can be expected a couple times over a season. But not twice in 9 games. Bullpen - if the Pirates are serious about wanting to compete, they can’t sit on this problem; they need to be very proactive to shore up the weak spots.
And I can't help but be disappointed. I can't help but feel like we really should be 9-0, or at worst 8-1. Wednesday against the Twins, according to Fangraphs' win probability, we were as high as 77.4%, even 74% as late as the fifth inning. Yesterday against the Reds, they were at 90% after Frazier's RBI single. I don't think you should ever lose a game you're leading 4-0, certainly not to a terrible team like the Reds. Imagine the buzz around this team if they were 9-0.
I guess the flip side of that was Opening Day where the Tigers had a 90% chance to win at one point. Regardless, it's only nine games, but I'm cautiously optimistic about this team.
Your point about the impact to our record if we just take care of business against the poor teams is right on. If the Pirates can play around .500 ball against the better team, heck just against the rest baseball other than the Reds, and they win 14 of 19 against the Reds, that would get the team to about 86 wins. Getting pretty close to WC status.
Also, I agree about the 2 that got away. The Pirates should be 9-0. They blew 4 run leads in both loses. Maybe that can be expected a couple times over a season. But not twice in 9 games. Bullpen - if the Pirates are serious about wanting to compete, they can’t sit on this problem; they need to be very proactive to shore up the weak spots.