1A0723212F4A0 wrote: Ultimate disappointment:
Nutting really did Slip his way into a money making machine: we already know the crazy income stream coming out of MLB, but apparently appreciation of team value is disconnected from responsibility to run a good baseball organization:
Forbes valuation for 2018:
Pirates are 18th most valuable franchise
$1.260M
This guy is doing NOTHING to generate sick revenues and appreciation. But they lecture fans about not spending hard earned money to watch their “non-effort”.
https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/
Every time this Forbes valuation is used it is misleading. The Pirates may be worth over a billion dollars, but that is only if they are sold for that amount. It's not like Nutting has a billion dollars right now to spend on the Pirates. We understand that, right?
There are two major realities here for me. First is payroll. Let me just say, it is insane that we are trying to compete with a payroll of $80 million. We all agree with that. It was over $100 million a few years ago. We make a lot of assumptions about money on this board, but here are honest questions that I don't think have been answered (and probably won't be)...
- Why the drop in payroll from $100 to $80 million?
- Is there a plan to move it back to over $100?
- Why is the payroll in that range? How much in the black/red are the Pirates?
Again, there are lots of wild accusations about the Pirates and assumptions about the answers to those questions, but the reality is, none of us really know.
Secondly, if one resigns them to the reality that the aforementioned financial realities are unalterable (and from my perspective, they are), how do you use the pathetic resources available optimally. Of to say it another way, if we stop arguing and being angry about the how much should be available, we can have the much more realistic and tangible conversation about how it should be spent.
My first observation to that question is one that has been overwhelmingly stated already. We need to stop wasting any money on veteran bench players.
On one hand, the FO will argue that you need veterans on the bench because only they can go so far between at bats and be successful. Young players can't do that. They can't sit for 4 days and have effective at bats. Ignoring that the rest of MLB allows for young players to be bench players, there is rarely a person on the roster that goes long between at bats. Hurdle plays everyone too often and continues to think that resting players is effective. Let young players fill the bench and let them play.
Secondly, it isn't too shocking to hear them say that they can't risk $10+ on guys like Liriano. If the payroll is only $80 million, NH is right. Ten million on a pitcher isn't really doable. I'm not justifying the $80 million number. WE know that is a joke in the MLB landscape at this time. However, if $80 million is the number, 1/8th of that on someone like Liriano is dumb (It's also dumb to give $5 million to SRod...as I mentioned above)
The real issue is that, quite frankly, everyone on this team is underperforming. You wouldn't think that all of these young players would be all stars or even live up to their potential. However, it really seems like all of them are underperforming. If Kuhl and Williams pitched this year like they did for the second half of last year and Taillon pitched as he has, they would have a very good rotation. Not amazing, but very good. And if Bell was hitting like he did last year and Harrison was somewhere closer to career norms...this could be a team that was close to a wild card spot.
At the end of the day, with an $80 million payroll, they have to roll the dice and win prospects. There is no other way to put together a roster. A reason for optimism is that many of the guys I named are in their second full season of the majors. I think each of them are better than the numbers they are putting up and have room in their career trajectories to do better. The second year thing is often an historically tough year for players. The Pirates have nothing to lose by sticking with these players right now.
With regard to the main point of your post, it is similar to Orlando's above: forget all the promises and the rest of MLB, focus on how best to build an $80M dollar team. If it goes to $100M then great.
With these thoughts:
I agree, the $80M must be managed better.
-Plan on the roster turning over 100% over a 6 year period.
-I'd say the biggest allocation is to the Arb 2 and 3 guys and I'd walk away from long-term contracts - it seems we miss more than we hit. No more long term contracts! Go through Arb 2 and plan to trade, in the vast majority of situations, either at the trade deadline in year 2 of Arb or before arb year 3.
-Make the trade regardless of production. Trading the best players will be the source of stocking the system. If it's clear the team won't be competing in year 2 of arb, then make the trade before year 2 to increase the return.
- tear down the entire player development system and the amateur scouting team, and rebuild to get better results. Just acknowledge what we don't do well, and plan to do it better.
- I agree re veterans. Valuable resources are being wasted as is player development opportunities.
- Can the above be done on $60M? Because the one competitive change I'd make is to allocate $20M to invest in starting pitching. Maybe 1 $15M starter and a $5M starter or backend guy. Or maybe 2 $10M starters. If the Pirates could add even one highend starter it would make a huge difference. I recognize it will not be easy to find such pitchers without a long term contract. This is where a GM earns his salary.
I think a decent team can be managed this way. On occasion, lighting in the bottle will occur and the team will seriously compete. For the fans, no expectations beyond "the plan". We can focus on how to manage the roster and a greater focus on the farm. It could even be fun trying to out-think the rest of MLB.