OnlyBucs

3338303C3938236660172E363F3838793438570 wrote: Who on offense are you replacing?  I only see one glaring spot at 3B, but that could be solved if Kang makes it back. 



I know many are down on Polanco, but he is only 25 years old and was injured all year.  He might not be the super star some thought, but he is still a fine piece to a line up.  Cervelli was hurt too, but Diaz isn't going anywhere.  Only other player I can see moved is McCutchen in a trade.


The problem as I see it is that their are too many players like Polanco who are adequate pieces to a lineup but too few who are impact players. Only Cutch and Bell seem able to carry a team offensively. The starters at every other position (other than the gap at 3B) are just nice pieces to a lineup. Lots of guys who can hit .250 to .270 with a handful of HRs. They need 1 or 2 more impact hitters.






I agree to a point.  I do think a team of above average can carry an offense.  I think Marte can lead on the field and Harrison has been an all star a few times.  McCutchen can repeat his 2017 season.  Having four players who are above average at their position and having no slouches at the others can score runs.  Kang would be a fifth "star".


The only way this offense can get to the post season is if the team has consistently outstanding pitching. 




The Pirates have to think they can have a team ERA under 4.00 next year considering the current rotation and knowing who will be back in the bullpen and improving the bullpen.  Cole and Nova can be better and you would think the rookies would improve at least a little.  I know all assumptions, but the mindset the Pirates probably have.



Can this offense compete with a team ERA under 4.00?


They could probably compete with an ERA under 4.00. But is this staff going to manage that? Not a single starter had such an ERA this year. We've just has 2 straight mediocre seasons from Cole. A full season of Nova resembled the bad pitcher the Yankees got rid of more than the good pitcher the Pirates had for 11 starts a year ago. Taillon, Kuhl, Williams, Brault or Glasnow would have to step up their game. And beyond Rivero, the bullpen is a huge question mark for 2018. If the strength of the team is going to be its pitching, it's asking a lot to expect pitchers to perform better than they have thus far shown.



This year only 4 NL teams has ERAs under 4: LA, AZ, Nats and Cubs. Look at the pitching staffs of those teams and then look at the Pirates. Not even remotely close.

Everyone in the rotation is close to 4, but you make a good point about Nova.  Take away his crazy-good start in March/April and his ERA is 4.76.  He needs moved to the pen or another team.

7E7B7C7A7278617C7566606D140 wrote: Everyone in the rotation is close to 4, but you make a good point about Nova.  Take away his crazy-good start in March/April and his ERA is 4.76.  He needs moved to the pen or another team.
They're close to 4 but you don't get a team ERA under 4 unless you have starters a lot better than that.



The teams that had ERAs under 4 had the benefit of:

Cubs: Hendricks 3.03, Arrietta 3.53 and 4 relievers with 60 IP each with ERAs under 3.00.

LA: Starters Kershaw and Wood under 3.00 and Hill at 3.32. Only 1 of their 5 most used relievers had ERAs over 3.00.

AZ:Starters Ray 2.89, Greinke 3.20.

Nats: Starters. Scherzer, Strasburg, Gonzalez all under 3.00.



In other words, what gets a team ERA under 4.00 is having multiple pitchers who throw a lot of innings having outstanding ERAs well below 4.00. The Pirate starters had no one under 4.00, much less well under 4.00 or even under 3.00.

I think the pen ERA for 2018 is pretty unpredictable since we will likely have at least two rookies (or near-rookies, depending on where Neveraskus ended up in terms of innings/appearances).  It's likely to be higher than 4, though.  I wonder how many teams had a bull-pen ERA under 4.  I image not many.

Our run differential was -63. According to Baseball Prospectus, that should translate to 74.2 wins, so we actually won almost a full game more than should have been expected. Lowering our team ERA from 4.22 to 3.99 would save 37 runs on the year. So, if the offense stayed the same, we'd be at -26 runs. Still not competitive. Seattle was -22, and BP projected them to be a 79 win team based on run differential. They won 78. So, in short, no...a sub 4.00 team ERA will not be sufficient to turn this team into a contender. We need major upgrades all around the field. Many are saying third, and I agree. But, I think we need major upgrades in the outfield, behind the plate, short, and second. Pretty much everywhere but first.



Maybe a full year of Marte and a healthy Polanco, plus a year of Diaz, and getting Kang back will help. But, I'm not convinced that Kang will be back (not even hopeful at this point) and even if he is, I'm not at all confident he will still be the same player he was. Polanco has never been able to stay healthy. Cervelli will probably still play over Diaz, and McCutchen will probably be traded.



I say blow it up. This team is really not good. I thought they would be. But, they're pretty lousy. The "names" on this team should make it a good team. But, for whatever reason, the last two years have demonstrated that simply isn't the case. Time to start over from scratch.

ESPN* has 8 teams under 4.00 ERA, with the Brewers at 4.00, Cardinlas at 4.01. The Pirates ranked 12th in Team ERA (according to ESPN*) at 4.22. The Rockies and Twins had ERAs over 4.50.



I picked 4.00 because it was in the Top 10 and looked reachable considering this year's team ERA of 4.22.



(*If ESPN was wrong, then sorry for my post. That is where the top teams in 2016 fell)

737671777F756C71786B6D60190 wrote: I think the pen ERA for 2018 is pretty unpredictable since we will likely have at least two rookies (or near-rookies, depending on where Neveraskus ended up in terms of innings/appearances).  It's likely to be higher than 4, though.  I wonder how many teams had a bull-pen ERA under 4.  I image not many.
Totally agree about the BP ERA. And I can't imagine our starters having Kershaw-type ERAs to average out the BP to under 4.00.

5F545C5055544F0A0C7B425A5354541558543B0 wrote: ESPN* has 8 teams under 4.00 ERA, with the Brewers at 4.00, Cardinlas at 4.01.  The Pirates ranked 12th in Team ERA (according to ESPN*) at 4.22.  The Rockies and Twins had ERAs over 4.50. 



I picked 4.00 because it was in the Top 10 and looked reachable considering this year's team ERA of 4.22.



(*If ESPN was wrong, then sorry for my post.  That is where the top teams in 2016 fell)
ESPN was correct. But because of the DH, we have to look at team ERAs differently in the AL and NL. That's why I only mentioned the NL ERAs under 4.00. But Cleveland had the best ERA in MLB. And Boston, Yankees and TB also were below 4.00, which shows how good their pitching really was.



Every team is going to have ineffective pitchers. That's why the only teams to have good ERAs have some great pitching to more than counterbalance the bad ones. The Pirates won't get under 4.00 just by having some of their starters get to 3.90 or so. Like the examples I showed above, those teams balanced out the bad ERAs with guys like Kershaw, Wood, Ray, Greinke, Hendricks, Arrieta, Scherzer, Strasburg, Gonzalez. I don't think the Pirates' staff is at that point.

767374727A7069747D6E68651C0 wrote: Who on offense are you replacing?  I only see one glaring spot at 3B, but that could be solved if Kang makes it back. 



I know many are down on Polanco, but he is only 25 years old and was injured all year.  He might not be the super star some thought, but he is still a fine piece to a line up.  Cervelli was hurt too, but Diaz isn't going anywhere.  Only other player I can see moved is McCutchen in a trade.


The problem as I see it is that their are too many players like Polanco who are adequate pieces to a lineup but too few who are impact players. Only Cutch and Bell seem able to carry a team offensively. The starters at every other position (other than the gap at 3B) are just nice pieces to a lineup. Lots of guys who can hit .250 to .270 with a handful of HRs. They need 1 or 2 more impact hitters.






I agree to a point.  I do think a team of above average can carry an offense.  I think Marte can lead on the field and Harrison has been an all star a few times.  McCutchen can repeat his 2017 season.  Having four players who are above average at their position and having no slouches at the others can score runs.  Kang would be a fifth "star".


The only way this offense can get to the post season is if the team has consistently outstanding pitching. 




The Pirates have to think they can have a team ERA under 4.00 next year considering the current rotation and knowing who will be back in the bullpen and improving the bullpen.  Cole and Nova can be better and you would think the rookies would improve at least a little.  I know all assumptions, but the mindset the Pirates probably have.



Can this offense compete with a team ERA under 4.00?




I think their will be too much turn-over in the pen to make that bold a prediction, but it might be safe to say we have a chance of being slightly under 4 in the starting rotation.  And no, I don't think this offense can compete with an era slightly under 4.  We need some significant upgrades.




Those "upgrades" are going to have to come from within. We have an ownership that cut their 2nd best BP arm ,Juan Nicasio ,to save around 100 K . That really does challenge the Liriano salary dump for cheapness.

Cole, Taillon, Nova colapse is flummoxing



The 2nd half ERA for our two rookies is encouraging



Williams 3.35

Kuhl 3.63



with alot of depth at AAA and coming up soon at AA there is no way the Pirates look at ANY starting pitching this off season.