OnlyBucs

417C626F606A61436B7C6D6B6A0E0 wrote: Newman, who I think is Exhibit A on how limited sites like Baseball America are in talent evaluation.  They were wrong about him coming out of the draft, and I bet they hesitate to rank him highly because that would be admitting fault.



If Newman did what he did last year, and had been hyped by other internet prospect outlets, he'd probably be getting Dansby Swanson type treatment.  I also don't get why people are down on the system when there are four prospects arguably better than him in the system.


I largely agree with you to an extent.  I do think Newman would be getting more prospect hype if the pundits had been higher on him to start.  That said, he's not likely to develop much/any power so his bat is purely a BA/OBP play.  He's not super fast, so he's not likely to steal many bases.  And, he put in a lot of work last year to make his defense acceptable at SS.



And, regarding Swanson, he's not so far off.  But he's a little (6 mos) older, draws less walks, and has less power.  I don't know enough about Swanson's D to compare them.  I think the power potential in the bat is the main thing that makes Swanson a more hyped prospect as a potential middle-of-the-order guy.



However you look at it, he's pretty clearly #5 and a step above the next tier of guys.  We hope and expect that one or more of Hayes, Tucker, Craig move up into that top tier with good years this season.

Here's the FanGraphs write up on him:



http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-21-p ... h-pirates/

Scouting Report

Varied opinions about Newman’s overall projection surround his defense. If a given scout thinks Newman fits defensively at shortstop, then it’s difficult to deny the likelihood that he becomes at least an average everyday player. If the scout finds Newman’s defense there to be subpar and prefers him at either second or third base, then suddenly the offensive bar Newman needs to clear to profile as an everyday player becomes ambitiously high.



Newman is a plus straight-line runner with an above-average arm. He has good defensive footwork but, despite his straight-line speed, he lacks an explosive first step (which limits his range) and his hands are inconsistent. He is a fringe-average athlete. I think the sum of the parts is enough to play at short, even if it isn’t spectacular, but acknowledge that the margin for error is pretty thin and, if an injury saps Newman of range or arm strength at any time, his overall utility looks pretty dicey.



This dude rakes, though. Newman has plus bat speed, terrific hand-eye coordination and can move the barrel around the hitting zone. He sprays line-drive and hard ground-ball contact to all fields and quite comfortably profiles as a plus hitter. He has no power, in part because of how little he utilizes his lower half in the swing, something that has followed Newman to pro ball despite what appears to be a narrower stance and longer stride than he had in college. I’m not advocating any sort of proactive overhaul to Newman’s approach, because I think a plus-hitting shortstop is a good prospect and it doesn’t make sense to jeopardize that with greed. But if, for some reason, Newman does have to move off of short and more power is required for him to profile, tapping into that lower half is probably a good place to start.



For context, Jordy Mercer was worth 1.5 WAR this year as an average defensive shortstop who hit for very little power. I think Newman has a more favorable contact profile than Mercer does and is a pretty solid bet to post 2.0-plus WAR annually at peak.


Nice in depth report on Newman. It's stressing defense because some scouts don't think he can stick at SS. He's never going to be Ozzie Smith, but it's not an Alen Hanson situation where he can't make the throws, the main negatives being a slow first step and inconsistent hands. His has limited power, but the report notes consistent hard contact, so I think the only question is if a guy with no power threat can be mitigated by MLB pitching.