OnlyBucs

I agree it is up to McCutchen to sign an extension, but he takes a risk in playing on a one year deal to become a free agent.



This is why players are getting that buyout. They still get paid, guaranteed contract and then can opt out if they are still good or want to move on.

Trouble is I fear NH and CH will give him away and get nothing in return, like so many other deals they've made Lariano, Nacasio, Neil Walker, just complete bone head trades, and most likely what they'll get for Cutch, will be something along those trades.

624B445156605C404944564D250 wrote: I think the better question is: If you are Andrew McCutchen, what do you do?



1.  You know the drill.  This ownership group is going to plead poverty and not do anything significant to upgrade the roster via free agent additions.  You also know you are the most valuable trade chip.



2.  You genuinely like Pittsburgh, but when you put it in context of staying here and getting paid under your market value, or moving on to a team that is less committed to the bottom line, for a competitor, there is no debate.



3.  You'd much rather have things settled going into the year than putzing around until the trade deadline.



If I'm Cutch, I sit down with Bob, Frank, Neal and Clint.  I tell them to deal me by Thanksgiving, or I will announce I want out.  The deadline is my leverage at this point.  Once I make my announcement, the option of keeping me for another year can't be used to make a better deal.



If he's really nice, he might entertain a discussion of the Pirates making an offer to keep him, but we all know that's not going to happen, other than lip service.  Besides, if he's smart, he's going to want some guarantee of a roster upgrade...or that the Pirates will treat the trade deadline as an opportunity to boost their chances at the postseason rather than improve the bottom line.



I don't know how you would enforce that guarantee if they do give it lip service.  Maybe you have a roll over opt out of some sort to protect your interest.  But that's a pipe dream.  They've proven since your arrival the priorities of the operation.


great post.

I think they have to trade him in the offseason. I'm assuming he will not (and should not) take a discounted offer to stay if one is even presented.



Originally, I thought they might keep him for 18 if the FO really believes they can compete. I'm not sure what other roster moves can be expected around the division, but it does not seem like they can hurdle the teams ahead of them the way they operate. But even if management believes they can, they will be boxing themselves in.



If Cutch stays for all of 18, the PBC will only get a comp draft pick for him. To do so, they will have to give him a QO - which they might not. In doing so, it means that any team that signs him away will give up a pick. That lowers his market value and isn't exactly a nice parting gift.



Trading him at the 18 deadline is risky. If they manage to compete, it will be impossible to trade him unless he has cratered in which case his value will be nil and they probably aren't competing. Also, the acquiring team can't give him a QO (to get a comp pick) making him a pure rental.



That leaves the only realistic option that also maximizes the return on his departure is to trade him this offseason. They'll need to get an (lesser) OFer to fill his spot either in the trade or, more likely, in free agency using some of the savings. They will want a MLB-ready prospect (3B, C, SP) and either a lower level prospect or a value reliever in return.



If that happens, I expect they may deal Cole as well. It's not ideal given his season, but his trade value goes down as his arb years dwindle.

Just a thought, but with the new 4 year contracts for CH & NH I think the "Nut" is going to blow it up and trade Cole, Cutch and Harrison.

The cheapo owner likes the money and with that savings can buy another resort and position it as bringing along the youth as well as the "return" for those three making the future bright.



Can't wait to see what happens.

If you look at the projected payroll for 2018, Cutch, Cervelli, and Harrison are the top three, in that order. Cole is fairly far down the list, with a projected 6MM in salary. I would expect Cutch and Harrison to be traded. That would free up almost 25MM. If they find a home for Cervelli, that would free up another 10MM. With even two of those three traded they would solve their immediate budget crunch. They might even get some prospects back, at least for Cutch. I don't expect to see Cole traded this year. Next off-season is likely his year.

Justin Upton, one year younger than Cutch is probably going to opt out of a contract averaging 22 million a year over the next 4 years. I would think that Cutch is worth at least 24 million a year on a 5 or 6 year deal if he was on the open market.



It is “increasingly likely” that Justin Upton will choose to opt out of the remaining four years and $88.5MM remaining on his contract, a source tells MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi. Upton’s outstanding 2017 season gives him a strong case to look for a larger deal in free agency this winter, though opting out doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll leave the Angels. Morosi notes that Upton could use the opt-out clause as a way to leverage an extension from the Halos, as C.C. Sabathia did with the Yankees six years ago.

Upton has been getting better. He just had his best year ever in his 11 year old career.



McCutchen is not in that same boat. He had a decent year, but it was probably his 5th best season ever. And it wasn't as good as Upton's either.



I don't know what McCutchen will get on the open market. I just feel he is on a decline. That doesn't mean he is no longer a super star, but his best years might be in the past. He is still a great player in my eyes. A $10 million raise would be significant.

The answer the this question depends on what the FO plans to do. 



If they aren't planning on trading other players for, or signing an impact 3bman they might as well trade Cutch before opening day.



Baseball is a game of probabilities right?  There are no certainties, only analysis based on the likelihood of what is going to happen.   



The probability that the 2018 pirates can win anything worthwhile while Fielding essentially the same team is very low.



If they are planning to make an impact lineup acquisition, along with a few other changes both from within and otherwise, that probability increases enough that Cutch should be retained into next season for a push at winning something meaningful.



If the above is done and things don't work out, you would deal him during the season.



But if they're not going to make that lineup splash, just sell him.



I think the least likely outcome is resigning him regardless of what is done. But whether we move him now or later is unanswerable

I remain in the camp of picking up his option (no-brainer) and then trading him for talent.



As the Bucs need more talent to have a chance of competing at a high level, the Bucs should consider all avenues in moving Cutch, including trading him with other players.



What do I want in return? In order of priority.



1) Talent

2) Cost controlled talent

3) Prefer a 3rd baseman, SS or catcher

4) And if Cutch is traded, it should be the beginning of a string of trades and not just a single move. Cutch is the backbone of the current offense. If he is traded, Bucs should begin to retool.