OnlyBucs

7C5C4F52533D0 wrote: Nice post and an accurate portrayal.



The draft, or lack of draft success is the biggest problem.  For this team to succeed with a continuous bottom of the league payroll, they need impactful homegrown talent.  I’m not talking about average or above average players.  They need to uncover a Judge or Bellinger every once in awhile. 
Fact is they could have had Judge. He was drafted 32nd in the First Round in 2013. I wanted the Bucs to draft him after seeing him in person at Fresno State. That size and power does not come along very often




I can't believe I'm doing this at all, but the baseball draft is the biggest crap shoot of them all.  I think we all can rip the organization for taking Sanchez, Maholm, who was the garbage early pick from Clemson that was cast as a reliever who don't do anything of note (name escapes me because he is so forgettable), maybe Bullington too.  However, saying we could have taken someone that was taken 32nd, doesn't pass the sniff test.  Did anyone really know Judge was going to be this dominant?  If so, I'd suspect he would have been chosen earlier.  Again, I hate defending the Bucs GM or owner in this case, but ...


I agree, to a point.  You can play that game with any draft. 24 teams passed on Mike Trout. Albert Pujols wasn’t drafted until the 13th round.



But what you can do is look at a GM’s entire body of work. Which why it’s not a complete crapshoot. And after 10 drafts we’ve got a good amount of data to evaluate NH. Spoiler alert. It’s bad.




It's not in my DNA to defend the owner nor the GM because both are bad for this organization. However, I stand by what I said, the MLB draft if the biggest crap shoot of them all. I know NH's draft record sucks. So did the previous guy, who ended up taking guys like Moskos.

If it were a complete crapshoot, why even have the GM involved? Why have scouts? Just buy a subscription to Baseball America or have Tim Williams make the picks.



If it were a complete crapshoot, the Cardinals are the luckiest team in baseball as they have consistently outperformed all of baseball for the past 20-30 years despite generally drafting in the bottom half of each round.

6040534E4F210 wrote: If it were a complete crapshoot, why even have the GM involved? Why have scouts?  Just buy a subscription to Baseball America or have Tim Williams make the picks.



If it were a complete crapshoot, the Cardinals are the luckiest team in baseball as they have consistently outperformed all of baseball for the past 20-30 years despite generally drafting in the bottom half of each round.


The cards have a very good development program. Credit to them. I won't go further with this and you won't change my mind. MLB draft is a crap shoot ... the biggest one out there.

6F7F7E495F5F533C0 wrote: If it were a complete crapshoot, why even have the GM involved? Why have scouts?  Just buy a subscription to Baseball America or have Tim Williams make the picks.



If it were a complete crapshoot, the Cardinals are the luckiest team in baseball as they have consistently outperformed all of baseball for the past 20-30 years despite generally drafting in the bottom half of each round.


The cards have a very good development program.  Credit to them.  I won't go further with this and you won't change my mind.  MLB draft is a crap shoot ... the biggest one out there.
I don't follow hockey but the MLB draft is certainly more unpredictable than NFL or NBA drafts. Mainly because MLB requires several more years of minor league seasoning before they're ready. Very few have ever skipped the minors (kudos to Dick Groat). So even the best are rarely ready when drafted. A lot can happen in the 3-5 years it usually takes, including the fact that the player just might not make the anticipated progress.

654845545342551516270 wrote: If it were a complete crapshoot, why even have the GM involved? Why have scouts?  Just buy a subscription to Baseball America or have Tim Williams make the picks.



If it were a complete crapshoot, the Cardinals are the luckiest team in baseball as they have consistently outperformed all of baseball for the past 20-30 years despite generally drafting in the bottom half of each round.


The cards have a very good development program.  Credit to them.  I won't go further with this and you won't change my mind.  MLB draft is a crap shoot ... the biggest one out there.
I don't follow hockey but the MLB draft is certainly more unpredictable than NFL or NBA drafts. Mainly because MLB requires several more years of minor league seasoning before they're ready. Very few have ever skipped the minors (kudos to Dick Groat). So even the best are rarely ready when drafted. A lot can happen in the 3-5 years it usually takes, including the fact that the player just might not make the anticipated progress. 


Hockey ... your generational talents like Sid, McDavid, Matthews jump right to the NHL without going back to Juniors. There is a weird rule in the NHL that someone drafted high, say Daniel Sprong a few years ago, can't be assigned to the AHL ... he has to go back to his junior team until he reaches a certain age. Only the kids that sign a contract out of the NCAA that don't make the team out of camp, can be assigned to the AHL because they lose their eligibility.



The MLB draft is many rounds ... more players are eligible for the draft than any other draft out there. That's what makes it a crap shoot to me; so unpredictable.



In the NHL, you rarely have a team take a Tony Sanchez pick that high, one that saves $$$. They usually go with what many of the forecasters have locked in, give or take a spot or two.

04141522343438570 wrote: If it were a complete crapshoot, why even have the GM involved? Why have scouts?  Just buy a subscription to Baseball America or have Tim Williams make the picks.



If it were a complete crapshoot, the Cardinals are the luckiest team in baseball as they have consistently outperformed all of baseball for the past 20-30 years despite generally drafting in the bottom half of each round.


The cards have a very good development program.  Credit to them.  I won't go further with this and you won't change my mind.  MLB draft is a crap shoot ... the biggest one out there.


To a certain degree, everything a GM does is a crapshoot.



Making trades, signing free agents, drafting and developing amateur players, searching for and signing international players. They all require knowledge, opinions, exhaustive research and at the end of the day, making good decisions. Everything they do comes with a certain amount of risk.



The GMs that make good decisions that cause their teams to win, are good GMs.



The GMs that make less good decisions, that cause their teams to lose, are bad GMs. It's not really any more complicated than that.



Three winning seasons in a decade, with very little chance at things turning around anytime soon? That's the definition of a bad GM.

How do you judge a GM if it's just a crapshoot?



But you are against Huntington?



How are you against Huntington and give blame if it's s crapshoot?



Is it all based on luck?

7A71797570716A2F295E677F767171307D711E0 wrote: How do you judge a GM if it's just a crapshoot? 



But you are against Huntington?



How are you against Huntington and give blame if it's s crapshoot? 



Is it all based on luck? 
How about the people the GM has in place to develope these young players? Isn't he responsible for that too? I do feel the draft is somewhat of a crapshoot. With that said talent evaluation isn't the only means by which to measure your drafts in my opinion. Its how you handle your players after drafting that makes the difference.

68636B676263783D3B4C756D646363226F630C0 wrote: How do you judge a GM if it's just a crapshoot? 



But you are against Huntington?



How are you against Huntington and give blame if it's s crapshoot? 



Is it all based on luck? 




I'm going to step in here because I'm so sick of this crap I no longer care if I get kicked off this board for life. If the mods don't care that half your posts are nothing but baiting people into circular arguements that can never resolve into ANYTHING other than frustration, then the mods can boot me.



Aaron sure doesn't need me to defend him.  I'm in this because this STUPID exchange represents endless threads - you seem intent to replay the same pointless "arguements" over and over.



You have done more to cause me to walk away from the Pirates than a hundred miscalculations from Neal - the Pirates  are frustrating enough without your intentionalnever-ending-down-the-rabbit-hole-deception arguements. 



So this little exchange serves as the perfect place to make a stand. Because it's very clear.  Because it represents "tactics" you've used against me and others too many times. So here goes.



I'm sick of you twisting words. Aaron said the following:

"To a CERTAIN degree everything is a crap shot..."  He then explains why he says that and then he comes back with his point: some people play this game better than others and Neal doesn't play it well enough.



Pretty darn obvious to me and I bet to you as well. But you took the nuance, the invitation to discernment,  and hit it over the head with a blunt instrument.



"If it's a crap shot how can you blame Neal for anything? ..." and then your trade mark rapid fire questions that dig the SAME HOLE DEEPER. 



He NEVER said it IS A Crap shot, he said "to a certain degree". You know the difference.  But you tuned the entire point on an intentional misquote.



Further, he made it clear: even if you want to call it a crap shot,  the fact is some people know how to play the game a lot better then others.



I had a good friend in law school, smart - he never practiced a day in his life.  He graduated, flew out to Las Vegas, and made a lot more money than I did with the crap shot. So the point is all the more real: most people have no business in Vegas competing against the real players. 



To try to put this in simple terms: even if it is NOTHING BUT a crap shot (and that's not what was said) Aaron made PERFECTLY clear: Neal simply does not play craps as well as the professional players.



ITS THAT EASY AND OBVIOUS. He's already given you the answer to ALL of your questions. But you intentionally ignore the answer and intentionally start drilling a hole in everyone's head with your never ending circular "debate". Enough already!



Finally, you made mention about all the OBN members who think like you and are in contact with you through PM - I invite all of them to contact me though PM. I promise I will be nice and easy. They can tell me how they see your style of contribution to be an asset to the board.  I will listen and do my best to understand.  I'll apologize if I've been unfair. I will share the results with tge board. So I'll invite all the folks who have been in contact with Dog through PM to engage with me.  To help make a better board. 



Meantime - mods, if im over the line I apologize.  But This is what Dod's @arguements" bring out.

No worries, VA. I would just say to all concerned, the one thing we all agree on is our desire to see the Pirates succeed. Opinions differ as to how, or even if, they'll get there and arguing different opinions is fine. But we can still be respectful of others even when we disagree. My experience has been that posters can't be pigeonholed into always being right or always wrong. I often disagree with Dog but there are other times I agree with him completely. I have disagreed with Aaron in the past, yet I find him quite knowledgeable and an asset to the board. And as much as I'd like to think I'm always right, it pains me to say I'm not. Sometimes we just have to remember that we're not going to change someone's mind about a particular issue and let it go. And as long as we avoid nastiness, I think it's great that there's so much off-season interest and discussion about the Bucs.