626760666E647D60697A7C71080 wrote: He went to the Braves because they offered him a starting role and we did not. I doubt our perception of him has changed. He is seen as a utility player and not a starter. I'd love to see them trade for a young-ish starting 3B but I doubt they are willing to part with the necessary prospects to get one.
I would prefer they acquire a young 3Bman but I don't think they would have taken on the salary Rodriguez signed for with Atlanta for 2 years just to make him a utility player. Barring a Kang return I expected to see Rodriguez get the bulk of the PT at 3B next year. That wouldn't be my plan but I suspect its NH's.
That may well be plan B. Looking at what's available on the market does not give a lot of hope for significant improvement.
Let's say that Kang doesn't come back and team feels like S-Rod and Freese can handle third.
What does NH do to improve the team for 2018?
Mostly bank on Polanco, Marte, Cutch, Bell and Harrison provide the offense?
Expect that Cole and Taillon have very good years and 3 other starters will be at least ok?
For bullpen, Hudson pitches like they expected when signing him (does what Nicasio did last year).
Rivero is still lights out
The rookies come through too (Santana and Neverouskas)
or are there other moves NH will make?
If those things don't happen just wait for 2019?
Who would be a good pickup to Play 3rd if Kang fails
Moderators: SammyKhalifa, Doc, Bobster
Who would be a good pickup to Play 3rd if Kang fails
5E6C60607446656C61646B6C0D0 wrote: Does Rodriguez's very short 2017 erase his 2016 season? Why did the Braves sign him to a two a year deal and then trade him away? The Braves still don't have a second baseman.
yes, that is a big question for me. The Braves basically dumped his salary so they must not have expected much from him in 2018. If he repeats 2016 (or hopefully betters it) he is a huge bargain and someone any team would want to have.
. . . but i hope they're not banking on it.
This is the point, and this is my problem with their approach. It seems to me that they are hoping guys can closely duplicate career years. To their credit, they had a bunch of guys do this in 2015: McCutchen, Cervelli, Marte, Watson, Cole, Burnett, Liriano, Melancon, Rodriguez, Blanton, and Happ come to mind. The result: a 98 win team. Great.
But, what are the odds that everyone has a career year? Not likely. The key to building a great team is to get a bunch of guys whose AVERAGE years are on par with your players' career years. As an example, let's take Gerrit Cole. Cole's best year thus far was 2015. He was a legitimate ace and a legit contender for the Cy Young. But, every other year of his career has been rather pedestrian. Not Jeff Lockian, mind you, but not anywhere close to the consistency of a guy like David Price or Max Scherzer. And I believe that Cole's pure stuff is as good as though two guys.
Regardless, if a key to the Pirates' season is Gerrit Cole having a career year, they are already behind the 8-ball. But that's the approach, and it's not just with Cole. It's the case with everyone: Taillon, Polanco, Marte, Cervelli (duplicate 2015), Glasnow, Rodriguez. That's not going to happen. Those guys aren't ALL going to have career years. It would be great if they did, but they won't.
Yet, the Pirates seem to be planning 2018 around it happening.
yes, that is a big question for me. The Braves basically dumped his salary so they must not have expected much from him in 2018. If he repeats 2016 (or hopefully betters it) he is a huge bargain and someone any team would want to have.
. . . but i hope they're not banking on it.
This is the point, and this is my problem with their approach. It seems to me that they are hoping guys can closely duplicate career years. To their credit, they had a bunch of guys do this in 2015: McCutchen, Cervelli, Marte, Watson, Cole, Burnett, Liriano, Melancon, Rodriguez, Blanton, and Happ come to mind. The result: a 98 win team. Great.
But, what are the odds that everyone has a career year? Not likely. The key to building a great team is to get a bunch of guys whose AVERAGE years are on par with your players' career years. As an example, let's take Gerrit Cole. Cole's best year thus far was 2015. He was a legitimate ace and a legit contender for the Cy Young. But, every other year of his career has been rather pedestrian. Not Jeff Lockian, mind you, but not anywhere close to the consistency of a guy like David Price or Max Scherzer. And I believe that Cole's pure stuff is as good as though two guys.
Regardless, if a key to the Pirates' season is Gerrit Cole having a career year, they are already behind the 8-ball. But that's the approach, and it's not just with Cole. It's the case with everyone: Taillon, Polanco, Marte, Cervelli (duplicate 2015), Glasnow, Rodriguez. That's not going to happen. Those guys aren't ALL going to have career years. It would be great if they did, but they won't.
Yet, the Pirates seem to be planning 2018 around it happening.
Who would be a good pickup to Play 3rd if Kang fails
5A5251667055727D130 wrote: Does Rodriguez's very short 2017 erase his 2016 season? Why did the Braves sign him to a two a year deal and then trade him away? The Braves still don't have a second baseman.
yes, that is a big question for me. The Braves basically dumped his salary so they must not have expected much from him in 2018. If he repeats 2016 (or hopefully betters it) he is a huge bargain and someone any team would want to have.
. . . but i hope they're not banking on it.
This is the point, and this is my problem with their approach. It seems to me that they are hoping guys can closely duplicate career years. To their credit, they had a bunch of guys do this in 2015: McCutchen, Cervelli, Marte, Watson, Cole, Burnett, Liriano, Melancon, Rodriguez, Blanton, and Happ come to mind. The result: a 98 win team. Great.
But, what are the odds that everyone has a career year? Not likely. The key to building a great team is to get a bunch of guys whose AVERAGE years are on par with your players' career years. As an example, let's take Gerrit Cole. Cole's best year thus far was 2015. He was a legitimate ace and a legit contender for the Cy Young. But, every other year of his career has been rather pedestrian. Not Jeff Lockian, mind you, but not anywhere close to the consistency of a guy like David Price or Max Scherzer. And I believe that Cole's pure stuff is as good as though two guys.
Regardless, if a key to the Pirates' season is Gerrit Cole having a career year, they are already behind the 8-ball. But that's the approach, and it's not just with Cole. It's the case with everyone: Taillon, Polanco, Marte, Cervelli (duplicate 2015), Glasnow, Rodriguez. That's not going to happen. Those guys aren't ALL going to have career years. It would be great if they did, but they won't.
Yet, the Pirates seem to be planning 2018 around it happening.
There is nothing to suggest that Cole will come close to his 2015 in 2018. The Pirates' brass is only fooling themselves. All you have to do is watch this year. He is inconsistent; couldn't go deep in games; doesn't have the ability to shake a bad pitch that was blasted to WV and so on.
yes, that is a big question for me. The Braves basically dumped his salary so they must not have expected much from him in 2018. If he repeats 2016 (or hopefully betters it) he is a huge bargain and someone any team would want to have.
. . . but i hope they're not banking on it.
This is the point, and this is my problem with their approach. It seems to me that they are hoping guys can closely duplicate career years. To their credit, they had a bunch of guys do this in 2015: McCutchen, Cervelli, Marte, Watson, Cole, Burnett, Liriano, Melancon, Rodriguez, Blanton, and Happ come to mind. The result: a 98 win team. Great.
But, what are the odds that everyone has a career year? Not likely. The key to building a great team is to get a bunch of guys whose AVERAGE years are on par with your players' career years. As an example, let's take Gerrit Cole. Cole's best year thus far was 2015. He was a legitimate ace and a legit contender for the Cy Young. But, every other year of his career has been rather pedestrian. Not Jeff Lockian, mind you, but not anywhere close to the consistency of a guy like David Price or Max Scherzer. And I believe that Cole's pure stuff is as good as though two guys.
Regardless, if a key to the Pirates' season is Gerrit Cole having a career year, they are already behind the 8-ball. But that's the approach, and it's not just with Cole. It's the case with everyone: Taillon, Polanco, Marte, Cervelli (duplicate 2015), Glasnow, Rodriguez. That's not going to happen. Those guys aren't ALL going to have career years. It would be great if they did, but they won't.
Yet, the Pirates seem to be planning 2018 around it happening.
There is nothing to suggest that Cole will come close to his 2015 in 2018. The Pirates' brass is only fooling themselves. All you have to do is watch this year. He is inconsistent; couldn't go deep in games; doesn't have the ability to shake a bad pitch that was blasted to WV and so on.
-
Bobster21
Who would be a good pickup to Play 3rd if Kang fails
250302150313600 wrote: He went to the Braves because they offered him a starting role and we did not. I doubt our perception of him has changed. He is seen as a utility player and not a starter. I'd love to see them trade for a young-ish starting 3B but I doubt they are willing to part with the necessary prospects to get one.
I would prefer they acquire a young 3Bman but I don't think they would have taken on the salary Rodriguez signed for with Atlanta for 2 years just to make him a utility player. Barring a Kang return I expected to see Rodriguez get the bulk of the PT at 3B next year. That wouldn't be my plan but I suspect its NH's.
That may well be plan B. Looking at what's available on the market does not give a lot of hope for significant improvement.
Let's say that Kang doesn't come back and team feels like S-Rod and Freese can handle third.
What does NH do to improve the team for 2018?
Mostly bank on Polanco, Marte, Cutch, Bell and Harrison provide the offense?
Expect that Cole and Taillon have very good years and 3 other starters will be at least ok?
For bullpen, Hudson pitches like they expected when signing him (does what Nicasio did last year).
Rivero is still lights out
The rookies come through too (Santana and Neverouskas)
or are there other moves NH will make?
If those things don't happen just wait for 2019?
I think you have identified "The Plan." But for a team that annually maintains one of MLB's lowest payrolls and never acquires players proven to be productive because they come with large contracts, there isn't much else they can do. It's always hope that the players already under contract have good years and hope that the marginal players they obtain exceed expectations. This is the case every year so there's no reason to expect 2018 to be different. I don't say this to knock the team. It's just how they operate so I'm just stating the obvious. As Pirate fans, we have little choice but to hope it all comes together like it did in 2015 (but with better results).
I would prefer they acquire a young 3Bman but I don't think they would have taken on the salary Rodriguez signed for with Atlanta for 2 years just to make him a utility player. Barring a Kang return I expected to see Rodriguez get the bulk of the PT at 3B next year. That wouldn't be my plan but I suspect its NH's.
That may well be plan B. Looking at what's available on the market does not give a lot of hope for significant improvement.
Let's say that Kang doesn't come back and team feels like S-Rod and Freese can handle third.
What does NH do to improve the team for 2018?
Mostly bank on Polanco, Marte, Cutch, Bell and Harrison provide the offense?
Expect that Cole and Taillon have very good years and 3 other starters will be at least ok?
For bullpen, Hudson pitches like they expected when signing him (does what Nicasio did last year).
Rivero is still lights out
The rookies come through too (Santana and Neverouskas)
or are there other moves NH will make?
If those things don't happen just wait for 2019?
I think you have identified "The Plan." But for a team that annually maintains one of MLB's lowest payrolls and never acquires players proven to be productive because they come with large contracts, there isn't much else they can do. It's always hope that the players already under contract have good years and hope that the marginal players they obtain exceed expectations. This is the case every year so there's no reason to expect 2018 to be different. I don't say this to knock the team. It's just how they operate so I'm just stating the obvious. As Pirate fans, we have little choice but to hope it all comes together like it did in 2015 (but with better results).
-
dogknot17@yahoo.co
Who would be a good pickup to Play 3rd if Kang fails
090102352306212E400 wrote:
This is the point, and this is my problem with their approach. It seems to me that they are hoping guys can closely duplicate career years. To their credit, they had a bunch of guys do this in 2015: McCutchen, Cervelli, Marte, Watson, Cole, Burnett, Liriano, Melancon, Rodriguez, Blanton, and Happ come to mind. The result: a 98 win team. Great.
But, what are the odds that everyone has a career year? Not likely. The key to building a great team is to get a bunch of guys whose AVERAGE years are on par with your players' career years. As an example, let's take Gerrit Cole. Cole's best year thus far was 2015. He was a legitimate ace and a legit contender for the Cy Young. But, every other year of his career has been rather pedestrian. Not Jeff Lockian, mind you, but not anywhere close to the consistency of a guy like David Price or Max Scherzer. And I believe that Cole's pure stuff is as good as though two guys.
Regardless, if a key to the Pirates' season is Gerrit Cole having a career year, they are already behind the 8-ball. But that's the approach, and it's not just with Cole. It's the case with everyone: Taillon, Polanco, Marte, Cervelli (duplicate 2015), Glasnow, Rodriguez. That's not going to happen. Those guys aren't ALL going to have career years. It would be great if they did, but they won't.
Yet, the Pirates seem to be planning 2018 around it happening.
I agree with your point, but you do kind of contradict yourself. You say career years won't happen for the handful of guys you mentioned after saying that is what happened in 2015.
I don't know if this is wrong to think this way, but I feel guys can still get better. I feel Cole and Taillon can still get better. I feel Polanco can break out. Polanco is still only 26 years old. Cole, Taillon, and Polanco haven't reached their "prime years" yet according to MLB. Then you have guys like Harrison, Marte, Nova and McCutchen who are supposed to be in their prime years. Really, only Cervelli and Freese are considered past their prime. And Cervelli will be 32.
I know these guys have been around for a while as we watched them come up through the minors and be part of a playoff run, but they are still pretty young. The rotation has an average age of 26. If every baseball historian is correct, the Pirates are before or in their prime.
This is the point, and this is my problem with their approach. It seems to me that they are hoping guys can closely duplicate career years. To their credit, they had a bunch of guys do this in 2015: McCutchen, Cervelli, Marte, Watson, Cole, Burnett, Liriano, Melancon, Rodriguez, Blanton, and Happ come to mind. The result: a 98 win team. Great.
But, what are the odds that everyone has a career year? Not likely. The key to building a great team is to get a bunch of guys whose AVERAGE years are on par with your players' career years. As an example, let's take Gerrit Cole. Cole's best year thus far was 2015. He was a legitimate ace and a legit contender for the Cy Young. But, every other year of his career has been rather pedestrian. Not Jeff Lockian, mind you, but not anywhere close to the consistency of a guy like David Price or Max Scherzer. And I believe that Cole's pure stuff is as good as though two guys.
Regardless, if a key to the Pirates' season is Gerrit Cole having a career year, they are already behind the 8-ball. But that's the approach, and it's not just with Cole. It's the case with everyone: Taillon, Polanco, Marte, Cervelli (duplicate 2015), Glasnow, Rodriguez. That's not going to happen. Those guys aren't ALL going to have career years. It would be great if they did, but they won't.
Yet, the Pirates seem to be planning 2018 around it happening.
I agree with your point, but you do kind of contradict yourself. You say career years won't happen for the handful of guys you mentioned after saying that is what happened in 2015.
I don't know if this is wrong to think this way, but I feel guys can still get better. I feel Cole and Taillon can still get better. I feel Polanco can break out. Polanco is still only 26 years old. Cole, Taillon, and Polanco haven't reached their "prime years" yet according to MLB. Then you have guys like Harrison, Marte, Nova and McCutchen who are supposed to be in their prime years. Really, only Cervelli and Freese are considered past their prime. And Cervelli will be 32.
I know these guys have been around for a while as we watched them come up through the minors and be part of a playoff run, but they are still pretty young. The rotation has an average age of 26. If every baseball historian is correct, the Pirates are before or in their prime.
Who would be a good pickup to Play 3rd if Kang fails
363D35393C3D266365122B333A3D3D7C313D520 wrote:
This is the point, and this is my problem with their approach. It seems to me that they are hoping guys can closely duplicate career years. To their credit, they had a bunch of guys do this in 2015: McCutchen, Cervelli, Marte, Watson, Cole, Burnett, Liriano, Melancon, Rodriguez, Blanton, and Happ come to mind. The result: a 98 win team. Great.
But, what are the odds that everyone has a career year? Not likely. The key to building a great team is to get a bunch of guys whose AVERAGE years are on par with your players' career years. As an example, let's take Gerrit Cole. Cole's best year thus far was 2015. He was a legitimate ace and a legit contender for the Cy Young. But, every other year of his career has been rather pedestrian. Not Jeff Lockian, mind you, but not anywhere close to the consistency of a guy like David Price or Max Scherzer. And I believe that Cole's pure stuff is as good as though two guys.
Regardless, if a key to the Pirates' season is Gerrit Cole having a career year, they are already behind the 8-ball. But that's the approach, and it's not just with Cole. It's the case with everyone: Taillon, Polanco, Marte, Cervelli (duplicate 2015), Glasnow, Rodriguez. That's not going to happen. Those guys aren't ALL going to have career years. It would be great if they did, but they won't.
Yet, the Pirates seem to be planning 2018 around it happening.
I agree with your point, but you do kind of contradict yourself. You say career years won't happen for the handful of guys you mentioned after saying that is what happened in 2015.
I don't know if this is wrong to think this way, but I feel guys can still get better. I feel Cole and Taillon can still get better. I feel Polanco can break out. Polanco is still only 26 years old. Cole, Taillon, and Polanco haven't reached their "prime years" yet according to MLB. Then you have guys like Harrison, Marte, Nova and McCutchen who are supposed to be in their prime years. Really, only Cervelli and Freese are considered past their prime. And Cervelli will be 32.
I know these guys have been around for a while as we watched them come up through the minors and be part of a playoff run, but they are still pretty young. The rotation has an average age of 26. If every baseball historian is correct, the Pirates are before or in their prime.
I don't see it as a contradiction at all. I'm saying it's LIKELY that it won't happen.
They grade players on an 20-80 scale when scouting, reason being that MOST players will fall in that range. You might have an outlier that is below 20 or above 80, but on average, the vast, vast majority of players will fall in that range.
So, let's look at the potential possibilities of Pirates' seasons next year. Yes, McCutchen could be an MVP candidate again, and Cole could be a CY contender, Taillon could make the All-Star team, Harrison could duplicate last year, Rodriguez could duplicate 2016, Marte and Polanco could break out, and Cervelli could duplicate 2015. All of that COULD happen. But on the 80/20 scale, where would this potential scenario fall? I'd say on the 75-85 range. Meaning, it's possible, but not likely.
It's also not likely that Cole gets injured, McCutchen hits .218 with five homers on the year, Cervelli misses half the year (well, actually, that is likely, but just follow the analogy for a minute), and Mercer and Bell don't build off their breakout 2016s. Again, possible...not likely. Call this a 15-25 range on the scale.
Rather, what's likely is that most guys have career average years. A few might break out (Bell and Mercer last year). A few will be major disappointments (Marte and Kang). There will some unfortunate circumstances out of your control (Taillon cancer diagnosis). The end result is you likely have a team in the middle...if more good than bad, you'll be about at 60...if more bad than good...40. Bottom line...neither of those are playoff scenarios.
Know why the Astros were good? Because Springer, Altuve, Gurriel, Correa, Keuchel, McCullers, and Bregman are all studs. Even in a down year, they are above average. The Pirates have a couple of guys like that, and even that's debatable. At the end of the day, the Pirates are probably about an 80 win team, as currently structured. If things break right, they could win 90. If they break wrong, they could win 70. But, if you play 2018 out 100 times, I'd wager about 75% of the time, they'd finish with 75-85 wins, which isn't gonna get it done most years.
Blow it up.
This is the point, and this is my problem with their approach. It seems to me that they are hoping guys can closely duplicate career years. To their credit, they had a bunch of guys do this in 2015: McCutchen, Cervelli, Marte, Watson, Cole, Burnett, Liriano, Melancon, Rodriguez, Blanton, and Happ come to mind. The result: a 98 win team. Great.
But, what are the odds that everyone has a career year? Not likely. The key to building a great team is to get a bunch of guys whose AVERAGE years are on par with your players' career years. As an example, let's take Gerrit Cole. Cole's best year thus far was 2015. He was a legitimate ace and a legit contender for the Cy Young. But, every other year of his career has been rather pedestrian. Not Jeff Lockian, mind you, but not anywhere close to the consistency of a guy like David Price or Max Scherzer. And I believe that Cole's pure stuff is as good as though two guys.
Regardless, if a key to the Pirates' season is Gerrit Cole having a career year, they are already behind the 8-ball. But that's the approach, and it's not just with Cole. It's the case with everyone: Taillon, Polanco, Marte, Cervelli (duplicate 2015), Glasnow, Rodriguez. That's not going to happen. Those guys aren't ALL going to have career years. It would be great if they did, but they won't.
Yet, the Pirates seem to be planning 2018 around it happening.
I agree with your point, but you do kind of contradict yourself. You say career years won't happen for the handful of guys you mentioned after saying that is what happened in 2015.
I don't know if this is wrong to think this way, but I feel guys can still get better. I feel Cole and Taillon can still get better. I feel Polanco can break out. Polanco is still only 26 years old. Cole, Taillon, and Polanco haven't reached their "prime years" yet according to MLB. Then you have guys like Harrison, Marte, Nova and McCutchen who are supposed to be in their prime years. Really, only Cervelli and Freese are considered past their prime. And Cervelli will be 32.
I know these guys have been around for a while as we watched them come up through the minors and be part of a playoff run, but they are still pretty young. The rotation has an average age of 26. If every baseball historian is correct, the Pirates are before or in their prime.
I don't see it as a contradiction at all. I'm saying it's LIKELY that it won't happen.
They grade players on an 20-80 scale when scouting, reason being that MOST players will fall in that range. You might have an outlier that is below 20 or above 80, but on average, the vast, vast majority of players will fall in that range.
So, let's look at the potential possibilities of Pirates' seasons next year. Yes, McCutchen could be an MVP candidate again, and Cole could be a CY contender, Taillon could make the All-Star team, Harrison could duplicate last year, Rodriguez could duplicate 2016, Marte and Polanco could break out, and Cervelli could duplicate 2015. All of that COULD happen. But on the 80/20 scale, where would this potential scenario fall? I'd say on the 75-85 range. Meaning, it's possible, but not likely.
It's also not likely that Cole gets injured, McCutchen hits .218 with five homers on the year, Cervelli misses half the year (well, actually, that is likely, but just follow the analogy for a minute), and Mercer and Bell don't build off their breakout 2016s. Again, possible...not likely. Call this a 15-25 range on the scale.
Rather, what's likely is that most guys have career average years. A few might break out (Bell and Mercer last year). A few will be major disappointments (Marte and Kang). There will some unfortunate circumstances out of your control (Taillon cancer diagnosis). The end result is you likely have a team in the middle...if more good than bad, you'll be about at 60...if more bad than good...40. Bottom line...neither of those are playoff scenarios.
Know why the Astros were good? Because Springer, Altuve, Gurriel, Correa, Keuchel, McCullers, and Bregman are all studs. Even in a down year, they are above average. The Pirates have a couple of guys like that, and even that's debatable. At the end of the day, the Pirates are probably about an 80 win team, as currently structured. If things break right, they could win 90. If they break wrong, they could win 70. But, if you play 2018 out 100 times, I'd wager about 75% of the time, they'd finish with 75-85 wins, which isn't gonna get it done most years.
Blow it up.
Who would be a good pickup to Play 3rd if Kang fails
1D303D2C2B3A2D6D6E5F0 wrote: He went to the Braves because they offered him a starting role and we did not. I doubt our perception of him has changed. He is seen as a utility player and not a starter. I'd love to see them trade for a young-ish starting 3B but I doubt they are willing to part with the necessary prospects to get one.
I would prefer they acquire a young 3Bman but I don't think they would have taken on the salary Rodriguez signed for with Atlanta for 2 years just to make him a utility player. Barring a Kang return I expected to see Rodriguez get the bulk of the PT at 3B next year. That wouldn't be my plan but I suspect its NH's.
That may well be plan B. Looking at what's available on the market does not give a lot of hope for significant improvement.
Let's say that Kang doesn't come back and team feels like S-Rod and Freese can handle third.
What does NH do to improve the team for 2018?
Mostly bank on Polanco, Marte, Cutch, Bell and Harrison provide the offense?
Expect that Cole and Taillon have very good years and 3 other starters will be at least ok?
For bullpen, Hudson pitches like they expected when signing him (does what Nicasio did last year).
Rivero is still lights out
The rookies come through too (Santana and Neverouskas)
or are there other moves NH will make?
If those things don't happen just wait for 2019?
I think you have identified "The Plan." But for a team that annually maintains one of MLB's lowest payrolls and never acquires players proven to be productive because they come with large contracts, there isn't much else they can do. It's always hope that the players already under contract have good years and hope that the marginal players they obtain exceed expectations. This is the case every year so there's no reason to expect 2018 to be different. I don't say this to knock the team. It's just how they operate so I'm just stating the obvious. As Pirate fans, we have little choice but to hope it all comes together like it did in 2015 (but with better results).
Maybe this at least partially explains why NH was happy to sign a 4 year extension. His job is relatively easy if this is the plan. Most of the time he can sit around and dream about some magical future season while enjoying his job security.
I would prefer they acquire a young 3Bman but I don't think they would have taken on the salary Rodriguez signed for with Atlanta for 2 years just to make him a utility player. Barring a Kang return I expected to see Rodriguez get the bulk of the PT at 3B next year. That wouldn't be my plan but I suspect its NH's.
That may well be plan B. Looking at what's available on the market does not give a lot of hope for significant improvement.
Let's say that Kang doesn't come back and team feels like S-Rod and Freese can handle third.
What does NH do to improve the team for 2018?
Mostly bank on Polanco, Marte, Cutch, Bell and Harrison provide the offense?
Expect that Cole and Taillon have very good years and 3 other starters will be at least ok?
For bullpen, Hudson pitches like they expected when signing him (does what Nicasio did last year).
Rivero is still lights out
The rookies come through too (Santana and Neverouskas)
or are there other moves NH will make?
If those things don't happen just wait for 2019?
I think you have identified "The Plan." But for a team that annually maintains one of MLB's lowest payrolls and never acquires players proven to be productive because they come with large contracts, there isn't much else they can do. It's always hope that the players already under contract have good years and hope that the marginal players they obtain exceed expectations. This is the case every year so there's no reason to expect 2018 to be different. I don't say this to knock the team. It's just how they operate so I'm just stating the obvious. As Pirate fans, we have little choice but to hope it all comes together like it did in 2015 (but with better results).
Maybe this at least partially explains why NH was happy to sign a 4 year extension. His job is relatively easy if this is the plan. Most of the time he can sit around and dream about some magical future season while enjoying his job security.
-
dogknot17@yahoo.co
Who would be a good pickup to Play 3rd if Kang fails
6D6566514762454A240 wrote:
This is the point, and this is my problem with their approach. It seems to me that they are hoping guys can closely duplicate career years. To their credit, they had a bunch of guys do this in 2015: McCutchen, Cervelli, Marte, Watson, Cole, Burnett, Liriano, Melancon, Rodriguez, Blanton, and Happ come to mind. The result: a 98 win team. Great.
But, what are the odds that everyone has a career year? Not likely. The key to building a great team is to get a bunch of guys whose AVERAGE years are on par with your players' career years. As an example, let's take Gerrit Cole. Cole's best year thus far was 2015. He was a legitimate ace and a legit contender for the Cy Young. But, every other year of his career has been rather pedestrian. Not Jeff Lockian, mind you, but not anywhere close to the consistency of a guy like David Price or Max Scherzer. And I believe that Cole's pure stuff is as good as though two guys.
Regardless, if a key to the Pirates' season is Gerrit Cole having a career year, they are already behind the 8-ball. But that's the approach, and it's not just with Cole. It's the case with everyone: Taillon, Polanco, Marte, Cervelli (duplicate 2015), Glasnow, Rodriguez. That's not going to happen. Those guys aren't ALL going to have career years. It would be great if they did, but they won't.
Yet, the Pirates seem to be planning 2018 around it happening.
I agree with your point, but you do kind of contradict yourself. You say career years won't happen for the handful of guys you mentioned after saying that is what happened in 2015.
I don't know if this is wrong to think this way, but I feel guys can still get better. I feel Cole and Taillon can still get better. I feel Polanco can break out. Polanco is still only 26 years old. Cole, Taillon, and Polanco haven't reached their "prime years" yet according to MLB. Then you have guys like Harrison, Marte, Nova and McCutchen who are supposed to be in their prime years. Really, only Cervelli and Freese are considered past their prime. And Cervelli will be 32.
I know these guys have been around for a while as we watched them come up through the minors and be part of a playoff run, but they are still pretty young. The rotation has an average age of 26. If every baseball historian is correct, the Pirates are before or in their prime.
I don't see it as a contradiction at all. I'm saying it's LIKELY that it won't happen.
They grade players on an 20-80 scale when scouting, reason being that MOST players will fall in that range. You might have an outlier that is below 20 or above 80, but on average, the vast, vast majority of players will fall in that range.
So, let's look at the potential possibilities of Pirates' seasons next year. Yes, McCutchen could be an MVP candidate again, and Cole could be a CY contender, Taillon could make the All-Star team, Harrison could duplicate last year, Rodriguez could duplicate 2016, Marte and Polanco could break out, and Cervelli could duplicate 2015. All of that COULD happen. But on the 80/20 scale, where would this potential scenario fall? I'd say on the 75-85 range. Meaning, it's possible, but not likely.
It's also not likely that Cole gets injured, McCutchen hits .218 with five homers on the year, Cervelli misses half the year (well, actually, that is likely, but just follow the analogy for a minute), and Mercer and Bell don't build off their breakout 2016s. Again, possible...not likely. Call this a 15-25 range on the scale.
Rather, what's likely is that most guys have career average years. A few might break out (Bell and Mercer last year). A few will be major disappointments (Marte and Kang). There will some unfortunate circumstances out of your control (Taillon cancer diagnosis). The end result is you likely have a team in the middle...if more good than bad, you'll be about at 60...if more bad than good...40. Bottom line...neither of those are playoff scenarios.
Know why the Astros were good? Because Springer, Altuve, Gurriel, Correa, Keuchel, McCullers, and Bregman are all studs. Even in a down year, they are above average. The Pirates have a couple of guys like that, and even that's debatable. At the end of the day, the Pirates are probably about an 80 win team, as currently structured. If things break right, they could win 90. If they break wrong, they could win 70. But, if you play 2018 out 100 times, I'd wager about 75% of the time, they'd finish with 75-85 wins, which isn't gonna get it done most years.
Blow it up.
Good post. Good reasoning. I just feel the players are a little better or at least can be better. I'd like to add this year with the McCutchen window (probably) closing. Yes, more good than bad has to happen. But that is true for every contending team. Need a 3B or Kang. I still think that is a huge missing piece.
This is the point, and this is my problem with their approach. It seems to me that they are hoping guys can closely duplicate career years. To their credit, they had a bunch of guys do this in 2015: McCutchen, Cervelli, Marte, Watson, Cole, Burnett, Liriano, Melancon, Rodriguez, Blanton, and Happ come to mind. The result: a 98 win team. Great.
But, what are the odds that everyone has a career year? Not likely. The key to building a great team is to get a bunch of guys whose AVERAGE years are on par with your players' career years. As an example, let's take Gerrit Cole. Cole's best year thus far was 2015. He was a legitimate ace and a legit contender for the Cy Young. But, every other year of his career has been rather pedestrian. Not Jeff Lockian, mind you, but not anywhere close to the consistency of a guy like David Price or Max Scherzer. And I believe that Cole's pure stuff is as good as though two guys.
Regardless, if a key to the Pirates' season is Gerrit Cole having a career year, they are already behind the 8-ball. But that's the approach, and it's not just with Cole. It's the case with everyone: Taillon, Polanco, Marte, Cervelli (duplicate 2015), Glasnow, Rodriguez. That's not going to happen. Those guys aren't ALL going to have career years. It would be great if they did, but they won't.
Yet, the Pirates seem to be planning 2018 around it happening.
I agree with your point, but you do kind of contradict yourself. You say career years won't happen for the handful of guys you mentioned after saying that is what happened in 2015.
I don't know if this is wrong to think this way, but I feel guys can still get better. I feel Cole and Taillon can still get better. I feel Polanco can break out. Polanco is still only 26 years old. Cole, Taillon, and Polanco haven't reached their "prime years" yet according to MLB. Then you have guys like Harrison, Marte, Nova and McCutchen who are supposed to be in their prime years. Really, only Cervelli and Freese are considered past their prime. And Cervelli will be 32.
I know these guys have been around for a while as we watched them come up through the minors and be part of a playoff run, but they are still pretty young. The rotation has an average age of 26. If every baseball historian is correct, the Pirates are before or in their prime.
I don't see it as a contradiction at all. I'm saying it's LIKELY that it won't happen.
They grade players on an 20-80 scale when scouting, reason being that MOST players will fall in that range. You might have an outlier that is below 20 or above 80, but on average, the vast, vast majority of players will fall in that range.
So, let's look at the potential possibilities of Pirates' seasons next year. Yes, McCutchen could be an MVP candidate again, and Cole could be a CY contender, Taillon could make the All-Star team, Harrison could duplicate last year, Rodriguez could duplicate 2016, Marte and Polanco could break out, and Cervelli could duplicate 2015. All of that COULD happen. But on the 80/20 scale, where would this potential scenario fall? I'd say on the 75-85 range. Meaning, it's possible, but not likely.
It's also not likely that Cole gets injured, McCutchen hits .218 with five homers on the year, Cervelli misses half the year (well, actually, that is likely, but just follow the analogy for a minute), and Mercer and Bell don't build off their breakout 2016s. Again, possible...not likely. Call this a 15-25 range on the scale.
Rather, what's likely is that most guys have career average years. A few might break out (Bell and Mercer last year). A few will be major disappointments (Marte and Kang). There will some unfortunate circumstances out of your control (Taillon cancer diagnosis). The end result is you likely have a team in the middle...if more good than bad, you'll be about at 60...if more bad than good...40. Bottom line...neither of those are playoff scenarios.
Know why the Astros were good? Because Springer, Altuve, Gurriel, Correa, Keuchel, McCullers, and Bregman are all studs. Even in a down year, they are above average. The Pirates have a couple of guys like that, and even that's debatable. At the end of the day, the Pirates are probably about an 80 win team, as currently structured. If things break right, they could win 90. If they break wrong, they could win 70. But, if you play 2018 out 100 times, I'd wager about 75% of the time, they'd finish with 75-85 wins, which isn't gonna get it done most years.
Blow it up.
Good post. Good reasoning. I just feel the players are a little better or at least can be better. I'd like to add this year with the McCutchen window (probably) closing. Yes, more good than bad has to happen. But that is true for every contending team. Need a 3B or Kang. I still think that is a huge missing piece.
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DemDog
Who would be a good pickup to Play 3rd if Kang fails
John Drekker from Pirates Prospects is reporting that Jose Osuna expects to be ready for the Venezuelan Winter League in 7-10 days and that Osuna expects to play 3b about 4 days per week. Is this another hat to throw in the ring if Kang is unavailable? Will be interesting to see how this turns out.
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SammyKhalifa
- Posts: 3642
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:19 am
Who would be a good pickup to Play 3rd if Kang fails
I hope so. I know people were discussing it during the season but at the time I dismissed it as wishful thinking. Don't think he'd be a game changer over there but it should sure do wonders for his future on the 25 man.