The Power within

[INbuc]

With recent talk on Ohtani, Stanton, and Kang on my mind, I decided to do a little study of the power prospects within the Pirate Organization in 2017. I started by looking at all players who hit 10 or more HRs in the minors this season. There were 13 -- most of whom will likely never see the majors. The four with the best AB to HR efficiency were:

HR AB AB/HR

Jordan Luplow 26 492 18.9

Max Moroff 16 305 19.1

Logan Hill 18 346 19.2

Mason Martin 11 127 11.5



With only 127 AB, Martin had to homer with Ruthian-type frequency to even make the list. Naturally, we hope that continues.



As I sorted all the info, I went several different paths: comparing players within the organization; comparing the Bucs with other organizations, etc. But I ended up comparing the two upper level prospects, Luplow and Moroff, to the best current Pirate sluggers -- Bell and McCutchen.



I think there is a general consensus the organization doesn't have the most homer-friendly parks. Bradenton and the entire FSL are difficult for power production. I have heard/read Altoona is not particularly power friendly -- although the outfield dimensions don't seem daunting. Victory Field in Indy is very spacious--especially in center and the leftfield power alley. Few players have strong HR numbers in Indy.



To contrast, here is what Josh Bell and Cutch produced as they moved through Altoona, Indy, and their first years in Pittsburgh.



Josh Bell Age HR AB AB/HR

2017 Pit 26 549 21.1

2016 Pit 3 128 42.7

2016 Ind 23 14 421 30.1

2015 Ind Alt 7 489 69.9

2014 Brd Alt 9 425 47.2



Andrew McCutchen

2010 Pit 16 570 35.6

2009 Pit 12 433 36.1

2009 Ind 22 4 201 50.3

2008 Ind 9 512 56.9

2007 Alt Ind 11 513 46.6



Luplow

2017 Pit 3 78 26.0

2017 Ind 23 7 160 22.9

2017 Alt 16 254 15.9

2016 Brd 10 354 35.4



Moroff

2017 Pit 3 120 40.0

2017 Ind 24 13 185 14.2

2016 Ind 8 421 52.6

2015 Alt 7 523 74.7



It is interesting to note, both Bell and Cutch had modest power numbers in AA and AAA, yet almost immediately improved their HR rates upon arriving in Pitt. Perhaps that is some testament to the difficulty of hitting in Altoona or Indy (or maybe the league parks in general).



Also interesting is how much better Luplow's power numbers were in AA and AAA than Cutch or Bell. And his transition periods were much shorter at each level. Moreover, Moroff's HR rates in Indy were significantly better as well. In addition, in 2017 Moroff showed power from each side of the plate. Between both levels he hit 6 HR in 92 AB righty, and 10 HR in 213 AB lefty.



Although both Moroff and Luplow only hit 3 HRs each in the majors, as I remember each one was crushed. They both have seem to have smooth, easy swings that produces solid HR distance. They have some things to work on -- both appeared to struggle with pitch recognition and breaking pitches (which means they fit right in with this team). But maybe, just MAYBE, it means we have a couple burgeoning power prospects sitting on the Pirate bench right now. If Kang never returns or one of the outfielders is moved, I hope management gives these two a long look for regular playing time.

[Ecbucs]

great post.



I have wondered whether Luplow and Moroff changed their approach this past season in order to hit more flyballs and thus homers.



That seemed to be talked about a lot by broadcasters during the playoffs. (launch angles, etc.). Luplow was able to do it without increasing his k rate while Moroff struck out often.



For Cutch, I wonder how much was his gaining strength and experience in learning which pitches he could drive or even in anticipating a pitch in a particular location. I could see the team thinking he was going to be a speed and doubles type hitter and his power surprising almost everyone.

[Bobster21]

I don't think it's unusual for young players to develop more power as they get to the majors. They are often still growing into bigger and stronger--and just better--players. Had they remained in the minors the increased power might have become evident there too. They are also developing better skills such as pitch recognition as well as facing more pitchers who throw strikes. It makes it difficult to predict how minor league production will play at the MLB level.

[SCBucco]

587578696E7F68282B1A0 wrote: I don't think it's unusual for young players to develop more power as they get to the majors. They are often still growing into bigger and stronger--and just better--players. Had they remained in the minors the increased power might have become evident there too. They are also developing better skills such as pitch recognition as well as facing more pitchers who throw strikes. It makes it difficult to predict how minor league production will play at the MLB level. 


Agree.  Its only unusual in the fashion Brady Anderson did it in his career and when.

[Bobster21]

1303023523232F400 wrote: I don't think it's unusual for young players to develop more power as they get to the majors. They are often still growing into bigger and stronger--and just better--players. Had they remained in the minors the increased power might have become evident there too. They are also developing better skills such as pitch recognition as well as facing more pitchers who throw strikes. It makes it difficult to predict how minor league production will play at the MLB level. 


Agree.  Its only unusual in the fashion Brady Anderson did it in his career and when.
Most Oriole fans think Brady had some "help."

[BucsFaninGA]

Great post guys. Especially the research INbuc. Good stuff. Appreciated the discussion.



About time our Buccos had something good happen to them. I just keep thinking, sooner or later this team has to come together and something positive happen.



Man, we are due for some good luck...



Beatt'em Bucs

[dogknot17@yahoo.co]

4F626F7E79687F3F3C0D0 wrote: I don't think it's unusual for young players to develop more power as they get to the majors. They are often still growing into bigger and stronger--and just better--players. Had they remained in the minors the increased power might have become evident there too. They are also developing better skills such as pitch recognition as well as facing more pitchers who throw strikes. It makes it difficult to predict how minor league production will play at the MLB level. 


Agree.  Its only unusual in the fashion Brady Anderson did it in his career and when.
Most Oriole fans think Brady had some "help." 




Or everyone who follows baseball...



Didn't Anderson have one of the biggest drop offs in HR one season to another with more at bats? He hit 50 then less than 20 the following year with more at bats.

[Bobster21]

6368606C6968733630477E666F6868296468070 wrote: I don't think it's unusual for young players to develop more power as they get to the majors. They are often still growing into bigger and stronger--and just better--players. Had they remained in the minors the increased power might have become evident there too. They are also developing better skills such as pitch recognition as well as facing more pitchers who throw strikes. It makes it difficult to predict how minor league production will play at the MLB level. 


Agree.  Its only unusual in the fashion Brady Anderson did it in his career and when.
Most Oriole fans think Brady had some "help." 




Or everyone who follows baseball...



Didn't Anderson have one of the biggest drop offs in HR one season to another with more at bats?  He hit 50 then less than 20 the following year with more at bats. 


Anderson went from 16 to 50 to 18 HRs. Aside from the 50, he topped 19 only twice with his 2nd highest career total being 24.

[SCBucco]

416C61707766713132030 wrote: I don't think it's unusual for young players to develop more power as they get to the majors. They are often still growing into bigger and stronger--and just better--players. Had they remained in the minors the increased power might have become evident there too. They are also developing better skills such as pitch recognition as well as facing more pitchers who throw strikes. It makes it difficult to predict how minor league production will play at the MLB level. 


Agree.  Its only unusual in the fashion Brady Anderson did it in his career and when.
Most Oriole fans think Brady had some "help." 




there were a few naive ones who thought he improved his power by working hard.

[Bobster21]

05151423353539560 wrote: I don't think it's unusual for young players to develop more power as they get to the majors. They are often still growing into bigger and stronger--and just better--players. Had they remained in the minors the increased power might have become evident there too. They are also developing better skills such as pitch recognition as well as facing more pitchers who throw strikes. It makes it difficult to predict how minor league production will play at the MLB level. 


Agree.  Its only unusual in the fashion Brady Anderson did it in his career and when.
Most Oriole fans think Brady had some "help." 




there were a few naive ones who thought he improved his power by working hard.
Apparently, he chose not to work hard in any other year.