2024 Off-Season Thread

[Doc]

Just a guess, but I think the Pirates choices for a corner outfielder are the following players: Verdugo, Grichuk, Hayes, Winker and as a long shots Laureano or Bader. Currently there have not been many rumors as to where these free agents may end up, but as long as they remain on the open market their asking price may decrease. I am sure many fans will be disappointed if one of these players get signed by the Pirates, but at this time the high end players have been signed by other teams.

When I drafted this post I didn’t mention Santander and Profar as possible Bucs free agent additions, but unfortunately we know they are not in the Pirates price range.

It’s not those two aren’t in the Pirates “price” range, it’s that they’re not in the Pirates “willingness to pay” range.

[JollyRoger8]

I’m still baffled by the Pirates declining to resign Chapman.
The Red Sox are paying him basically the same salary. At the time I thought they were going to use the savings from Chapman and from DeLa Cruz and put that money towards a significant upgrade at 1B or OF. Then I thought that they may be anticipating a significant increase in arbitration awards. Neither of those scenarios have happened. In fact the payroll is currently lower than last year and most of the high priced free agents have signed. Not bringing back the dominating LH Chapman was a mistake if the team was serious about contending. Maybe it was Chapman that did not want to return; but I didn’t even hear or read that the Pirates even made an offer. Ferguson is no Chapman, I don’t know too much about the Marlin pitcher that was added to the roster. I feel that the Pirates have done a poor job in providing risk reduction if Bednar does not return to 2023 form.

[fjk090852-7]

I’m still baffled by the Pirates declining to resign Chapman.
The Red Sox are paying him basically the same salary. At the time I thought they were going to use the savings from Chapman and from DeLa Cruz and put that money towards a significant upgrade at 1B or OF. Then I thought that they may be anticipating a significant increase in arbitration awards. Neither of those scenarios have happened. In fact the payroll is currently lower than last year and most of the high priced free agents have signed. Not bringing back the dominating LH Chapman was a mistake if the team was serious about contending. Maybe it was Chapman that did not want to return; but I didn’t even hear or read that the Pirates even made an offer. Ferguson is no Chapman, I don’t know too much about the Marlin pitcher that was added to the roster. I feel that the Pirates have done a poor job in providing risk reduction if Bednar does not return to 2023 form.

I think the big reason that Chapman was not signed for 2025 was due to budget. Last offseason the FO spent in the 30 million dollar range for free agents, but so far this year they have spent approximately 8 million dollars. I feel that Bob N. gave Ben C a smaller free agent budget since Keller’s contract kicks in this season as well as IKF is on the roster this year. My guess is,if they can get a corner outfielder signed it will be in the 8 to 12 million dollar range meaning they will spend about 20 million dollars in free agent money this offseason. After that player is signed, they may sign a couple pitchers who remain on the free agent list to minor league contracts and invite them to spring training.

[Bobster]

Here's a Chapman quote from when he signed with Boston:

"This is a franchise that is always looking to be in the playoffs, to win, and for me to be here is a huge honor. When they contacted me, I knew that this was somewhere that I wanted to be. And everything went very quickly.”
https://www.mlb.com/news/aroldis-chapma ... th-red-sox

Chapman wanted to play for a team he thought could be a playoff contender.

[Surgnbuck]

I’m still baffled by the Pirates declining to resign Chapman.
The Red Sox are paying him basically the same salary. At the time I thought they were going to use the savings from Chapman and from DeLa Cruz and put that money towards a significant upgrade at 1B or OF. Then I thought that they may be anticipating a significant increase in arbitration awards. Neither of those scenarios have happened. In fact the payroll is currently lower than last year and most of the high priced free agents have signed. Not bringing back the dominating LH Chapman was a mistake if the team was serious about contending. Maybe it was Chapman that did not want to return; but I didn’t even hear or read that the Pirates even made an offer. Ferguson is no Chapman, I don’t know too much about the Marlin pitcher that was added to the roster. I feel that the Pirates have done a poor job in providing risk reduction if Bednar does not return to 2023 form.

I think the big reason that Chapman was not signed for 2025 was due to budget. Last offseason the FO spent in the 30 million dollar range for free agents, but so far this year they have spent approximately 8 million dollars. I feel that Bob N. gave Ben C a smaller free agent budget since Keller’s contract kicks in this season as well as IKF is on the roster this year. My guess is,if they can get a corner outfielder signed it will be in the 8 to 12 million dollar range meaning they will spend about 20 million dollars in free agent money this offseason. After that player is signed, they may sign a couple pitchers who remain on the free agent list to minor league contracts and invite them to spring training.

Here's my post about the Pirates budget from Dec 7th (I'll update the actual numbers we now know for the guys who aren't going to arbitration):

The Pirates have shed 43.55 in payroll from free agents or guys who were on contracts exceeding league minimum, and are no longer on the roster. (Gonzales, Perez, Chapman, McCutchen, Grandal, Borucki, Joe, Olivares, Brubaker, Taylor, Tellez). Keller is getting approximately a 9.5 million bump, Reynolds is getting a 2 million bump, a full season of IKF they're on the tag for approximately 6.3 million, projected 1.5 million bump on Bednar, projected 1.7 bump on Falter, projected 800K bump on Bart, and about another 1.5 million bump combined with Santana, Holderman, and Oviedo. That adds up to me as a savings of 20.25 million already, and when you consider that's with the projected top end arbitration bump, it's likely to be even more.

One other thing to look at, Ke'Bryan Hayes went DOWN from 10 million in 2023 to 7 million in 2024, and stays at 7 million thrugh 2027, 8 million for 28 and 29, then a 12 million club option with a 6 million buyout in 30. Which means Hayes contract is probably now starting to look attractive for a light hitting/gold glove caliber third baseman when you consider inflation in salaries in MLB. He's fast NOT becoming a white elephant.

My ticket increase was 5.7 percent this year, across the board I have no idea what ticket prices went up this season for the Pirates. But even a modest estimate of 5 percent has to increase revenue, because I'm speculating they will increase in attendance. They increased last season from 2023 by almost 90,000. That's about 1.5 million in gate receipts without doing anything more than just changing the price. Any attendance increase is more gravy on the potatoes, over 3 million with just 100,000 increase. Easily the Pirates are looking at a gate revenue increase of probably well over 5 million this season.
********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
So here's the update from that post:

The bump on Bednar was 1.39 The bump on Falter was 1.467 The bump on Bart was .98 The bump on Holderman was .745 That totals 4.582 million for them. If Santana wins his case, it's a 1.36 bump If Oviedo wins his case, it's a .385 bump for another increase in salary of 1.745 should the Pirates lose both cases, and adding in the guys that signed, their total maximum increase in salary towards all the arbitration eligible guys comes to 6.327 million. So, I was off by 827K on the projections, and if the Pirates win both case, it's spot on practically. So that 20.25 savings is now reduced 827K to 19.423 million. Now, subtract Cutch's 5 million, and Ferguson's 3 million, the Pirates are still 11.423 million below what they spent last season. Keep in mind what I said about ticket price increase, and a likely bump in attendance. That's a very modest figure, as well as the reduction in discounts to STH's, which is impossible to estimate, but what ever it comes to, it's money FOR the Pirates.

Just by the greater value of the contracts lost minus the value of the increase of arb eligible and free agent signing, as well as ticket revenue increase, the Pirates have easily saved close to 20 million dollars from what they paid last season.

I wonder, if they were to actually spend another 20 million dollars, what that could mean for the 2025 team, and BOB not having spent one dollar more than last season? It's mind boggling to think that they could have had Treinen, they could have had Hoffman, they could have brought Chapman back, and really shored up the bullpen. They could have paid for Bellinger, and kept Ortiz.

And this is all public information.

[Surgnbuck]

MLB bans the two guys who assaulted Mookie Betts during game 4 of the World Series:

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/mlb-bans-y ... 01146.html

[JollyRoger8]

I’m still baffled by the Pirates declining to resign Chapman.
The Red Sox are paying him basically the same salary. At the time I thought they were going to use the savings from Chapman and from DeLa Cruz and put that money towards a significant upgrade at 1B or OF. Then I thought that they may be anticipating a significant increase in arbitration awards. Neither of those scenarios have happened. In fact the payroll is currently lower than last year and most of the high priced free agents have signed. Not bringing back the dominating LH Chapman was a mistake if the team was serious about contending. Maybe it was Chapman that did not want to return; but I didn’t even hear or read that the Pirates even made an offer. Ferguson is no Chapman, I don’t know too much about the Marlin pitcher that was added to the roster. I feel that the Pirates have done a poor job in providing risk reduction if Bednar does not return to 2023 form.

I think the big reason that Chapman was not signed for 2025 was due to budget. Last offseason the FO spent in the 30 million dollar range for free agents, but so far this year they have spent approximately 8 million dollars. I feel that Bob N. gave Ben C a smaller free agent budget since Keller’s contract kicks in this season as well as IKF is on the roster this year. My guess is,if they can get a corner outfielder signed it will be in the 8 to 12 million dollar range meaning they will spend about 20 million dollars in free agent money this offseason. After that player is signed, they may sign a couple pitchers who remain on the free agent list to minor league contracts and invite them to spring training.

Here's my post about the Pirates budget from Dec 7th (I'll update the actual numbers we now know for the guys who aren't going to arbitration):

The Pirates have shed 43.55 in payroll from free agents or guys who were on contracts exceeding league minimum, and are no longer on the roster. (Gonzales, Perez, Chapman, McCutchen, Grandal, Borucki, Joe, Olivares, Brubaker, Taylor, Tellez). Keller is getting approximately a 9.5 million bump, Reynolds is getting a 2 million bump, a full season of IKF they're on the tag for approximately 6.3 million, projected 1.5 million bump on Bednar, projected 1.7 bump on Falter, projected 800K bump on Bart, and about another 1.5 million bump combined with Santana, Holderman, and Oviedo. That adds up to me as a savings of 20.25 million already, and when you consider that's with the projected top end arbitration bump, it's likely to be even more.

One other thing to look at, Ke'Bryan Hayes went DOWN from 10 million in 2023 to 7 million in 2024, and stays at 7 million thrugh 2027, 8 million for 28 and 29, then a 12 million club option with a 6 million buyout in 30. Which means Hayes contract is probably now starting to look attractive for a light hitting/gold glove caliber third baseman when you consider inflation in salaries in MLB. He's fast NOT becoming a white elephant.

My ticket increase was 5.7 percent this year, across the board I have no idea what ticket prices went up this season for the Pirates. But even a modest estimate of 5 percent has to increase revenue, because I'm speculating they will increase in attendance. They increased last season from 2023 by almost 90,000. That's about 1.5 million in gate receipts without doing anything more than just changing the price. Any attendance increase is more gravy on the potatoes, over 3 million with just 100,000 increase. Easily the Pirates are looking at a gate revenue increase of probably well over 5 million this season.
********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
So here's the update from that post:

The bump on Bednar was 1.39 The bump on Falter was 1.467 The bump on Bart was .98 The bump on Holderman was .745 That totals 4.582 million for them. If Santana wins his case, it's a 1.36 bump If Oviedo wins his case, it's a .385 bump for another increase in salary of 1.745 should the Pirates lose both cases, and adding in the guys that signed, their total maximum increase in salary towards all the arbitration eligible guys comes to 6.327 million. So, I was off by 827K on the projections, and if the Pirates win both case, it's spot on practically. So that 20.25 savings is now reduced 827K to 19.423 million. Now, subtract Cutch's 5 million, and Ferguson's 3 million, the Pirates are still 11.423 million below what they spent last season. Keep in mind what I said about ticket price increase, and a likely bump in attendance. That's a very modest figure, as well as the reduction in discounts to STH's, which is impossible to estimate, but what ever it comes to, it's money FOR the Pirates.

Just by the greater value of the contracts lost minus the value of the increase of arb eligible and free agent signing, as well as ticket revenue increase, the Pirates have easily saved close to 20 million dollars from what they paid last season.

I wonder, if they were to actually spend another 20 million dollars, what that could mean for the 2025 team, and BOB not having spent one dollar more than last season? It's mind boggling to think that they could have had Treinen, they could have had Hoffman, they could have brought Chapman back, and really shored up the bullpen. They could have paid for Bellinger, and kept Ortiz.

And this is all public information.

Great financial summary. Thanks for digging into the details.
Just the average ML payroll is approximately $150M
The fact that the Pirates are not even in the same ballpark as an average payroll salary; they may even be lower than last year is a travesty. Chapman’s comments are damning. The organization not trying hard enough to win, pulling cheap stunts like the Tellez bonus fiasco, trying to squeeze every penny in arbitration, it’s no wonder any good ballplayer that wants to win would not consider Pittsburgh.
I was fortunate enough to see the 1971 and 1979 WS teams. I keep hoping to have a chance to see the Pirates reach the WS one more time in my lifetime. With Skenes and the pitching talent they have at the ML level and at AAA ready to make an impact; I feel now is that window of opportunity. However it seems that we have lost one year of having control over Skenes by not upgrading the offense significantly. I will have to hope for the “proverbial” improvement from within strategy.

[Bobster]

With Skenes and the pitching talent they have at the ML level and at AAA ready to make an impact; I feel now is that window of opportunity. However it seems that we have lost one year of having control over Skenes by not upgrading the offense significantly. I will have to hope for the “proverbial” improvement from within strategy.

I don't believe Nutting shares the fans' perception of a window of opportunity with Skenes. We see the same method of operating every year. Nutting seems to appreciate whatever amount of winning can be done under the self-imposed financial constraints. But winning is not a priority and that's not going to change just because Skenes is on the roster for a few years. Skenes gives the team some positive PR throughout MLB, he increases fan interest, and he improves attendance when he pitches. But nothing else changes. If Skenes' teammates, such as they are, put it all together and they have a winning year, Nutting will enjoy it like the rest of us. But there seems to be no intention of changing how they operate and trying to build a strong team around Skenes.

[Doc]

I’m still baffled by the Pirates declining to resign Chapman.
The Red Sox are paying him basically the same salary. At the time I thought they were going to use the savings from Chapman and from DeLa Cruz and put that money towards a significant upgrade at 1B or OF. Then I thought that they may be anticipating a significant increase in arbitration awards. Neither of those scenarios have happened. In fact the payroll is currently lower than last year and most of the high priced free agents have signed. Not bringing back the dominating LH Chapman was a mistake if the team was serious about contending. Maybe it was Chapman that did not want to return; but I didn’t even hear or read that the Pirates even made an offer. Ferguson is no Chapman, I don’t know too much about the Marlin pitcher that was added to the roster. I feel that the Pirates have done a poor job in providing risk reduction if Bednar does not return to 2023 form.

I think the big reason that Chapman was not signed for 2025 was due to budget. Last offseason the FO spent in the 30 million dollar range for free agents, but so far this year they have spent approximately 8 million dollars. I feel that Bob N. gave Ben C a smaller free agent budget since Keller’s contract kicks in this season as well as IKF is on the roster this year. My guess is,if they can get a corner outfielder signed it will be in the 8 to 12 million dollar range meaning they will spend about 20 million dollars in free agent money this offseason. After that player is signed, they may sign a couple pitchers who remain on the free agent list to minor league contracts and invite them to spring training.

Even if the Pirates had been able to sign Juan Soto to the same $51 million/year contract the Mets gave him, the team's 26-man payroll would end-up ranking around 20th at about $125 million, still well under the league average. No one can convince me that the Pirates can't afford that amount, especially with the inevitable increase in attendance. Of course, the team would never offer that amount of money to any one player (not because they can't but because they're unwilling to), but it just shows the Pirates can pay a lot more for players than they do now. And until they do, they'll remain the mediocre group they've largely been since the current ownership took control.

[fjk090852-7]

Great posts about the Pirates payroll breakdown. With the average payroll and the Pirates well below average baseball somehow needs to implement some type of payroll minimum system. Possibly if this would happen an owner such as Bob Nutting would want to sell the team. I guess wishful thinking on my part!
If I could guess how Bob operates he gives the Operations Staff an annual figure for the budget. Imagine the budget is in 4 buckets:

Bucket 1 Existing player contracts
Bucket 2 Players under arbitration
Bucket 3 Players who have not yet reached arbitration
Bucket 4 Free Agent Acquisitions

Ben C has to juggle the money allocated to each bucket accordingly, and I really feel Bob Nutting doesn’t give the staff any wiggle room when it comes to the proposed budget. A very tough way to operate a baseball franchise especially if you want to win.