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Bobster
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Keller
Jun 11th, 2021 at 9:33am
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I know there's a school of thought that says Keller has nothing more to prove in the minors. I think that's the problem. Look at his minor league stats. The dominance he demonstrated through AA disappeared when he reached AAA.

Career AAA Stats:
IP: 156   Hits: 153   ERA: 3.98.  WHIP: 1.346

Those are pretty ordinary numbers vs AAA batters. The only area where he excelled was in strikeouts, averaging 10.4 Ks per 9 IP. He could overpower AAA batters. At least those who weren't solving him for about a hit per inning, more than 1 baserunner per inning, and about 4 runs per 9 innings.

It's not as if he didn't have good games in AAA. The problem was consistency. He made it to AAA in 2018 and began poorly. But he reeled off 4 solid starts toward the end of the season before ending with a poor one.
2018 minor league game log

That was encouraging heading in to 2019 but he again started poorly before mixing in both good and bad starts. The Pirates recalled him for a poor MLB debut. He returned to Indy for 2 solid starts so the Bucs again recalled him for 2 more starts-one (3 innings) awful and one (5 innings) so-so. Then it was back to Indy for 8 more starts, 4 of which were good and 4 of which were bad. Those were his last minor league games.
2019 minor league game log

Since then he has mostly struggled against MLB batters. And his better games are generally only 5 innings. In 28 MLB starts he has completed 6 innings only twice with 6.0 innings his career best.

Part of the problem may be his development at AAA. In 29 AAA starts, 15 of them (52%) lasted less than 6 innings. Only 2 of them (7%) lasted longer than 6 innings. Given the fact that he had a lot of poor starts in AAA and that his good starts didn't involve a lot of innings, it might have been more informative to see if he could go longer into games with continued effectiveness. As a result we have a MLB pitcher who often struggled in AAA and whose better AAA games seem to have been cut short to ensure good stats before anything bad could happen. That hints of manipulating his stats to support an agenda to declare him the next great pitching prospect instead of finding out if he's really up to the task.

He has now become so bad and admittedly clueless as to why he can't do better that I think he would really benefit from returning to AAA. He needs to consistently dominate AAA batters, which is something he never previously demonstrated he could do. And he needs to pitch longer into games to show he can sustain effectiveness and not just pull him for the sake of good stats before he has a chance to struggle. IMHO, he still has a lot to prove in the minors.
  

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skinnyhorse
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Re: Keller
Reply #1 - Jun 11th, 2021 at 9:57am
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Bobster wrote on Jun 11th, 2021 at 9:33am:
I know there's a school of thought that says Keller has nothing more to prove in the minors. I think that's the problem. Look at his minor league stats. The dominance he demonstrated through AA disappeared when he reached AAA.

Career AAA Stats:
IP: 156   Hits: 153   ERA: 3.98.  WHIP: 1.346

Those are pretty ordinary numbers vs AAA batters. The only area where he excelled was in strikeouts, averaging 10.4 Ks per 9 IP. He could overpower AAA batters. At least those who weren't solving him for about a hit per inning, more than 1 baserunner per inning, and about 4 runs per 9 innings.

It's not as if he didn't have good games in AAA. The problem was consistency. He made it to AAA in 2018 and began poorly. But he reeled off 4 solid starts toward the end of the season before ending with a poor one.
2018 minor league game log

That was encouraging heading in to 2019 but he again started poorly before mixing in both good and bad starts. The Pirates recalled him for a poor MLB debut. He returned to Indy for 2 solid starts so the Bucs again recalled him for 2 more starts-one (3 innings) awful and one (5 innings) so-so. Then it was back to Indy for 8 more starts, 4 of which were good and 4 of which were bad. Those were his last minor league games.
2019 minor league game log

Since then he has mostly struggled against MLB batters. And his better games are generally only 5 innings. In 28 MLB starts he has completed 6 innings only twice with 6.0 innings his career best.

Part of the problem may be his development at AAA. In 29 AAA starts, 15 of them (52%) lasted less than 6 innings. Only 2 of them (7%) lasted longer than 6 innings. Given the fact that he had a lot of poor starts in AAA and that his good starts didn't involve a lot of innings, it might have been more informative to see if he could go longer into games with continued effectiveness. As a result we have a MLB pitcher who often struggled in AAA and whose better AAA games seem to have been cut short to ensure good stats before anything bad could happen. That hints of manipulating his stats to support an agenda to declare him the next great pitching prospect instead of finding out if he's really up to the task.

He has now become so bad and admittedly clueless as to why he can't do better that I think he would really benefit from returning to AAA. He needs to consistently dominate AAA batters, which is something he never previously demonstrated he could do. And he needs to pitch longer into games to show he can sustain effectiveness and not just pull him for the sake of good stats before he has a chance to struggle. IMHO, he still has a lot to prove in the minors.

Very revealing, he's clearly not ready for prime time.
  
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Ecbucs
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Re: Keller
Reply #2 - Jun 11th, 2021 at 10:53am
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Bobster wrote on Jun 11th, 2021 at 9:33am:
I know there's a school of thought that says Keller has nothing more to prove in the minors. I think that's the problem. Look at his minor league stats. The dominance he demonstrated through AA disappeared when he reached AAA.

Career AAA Stats:
IP: 156   Hits: 153   ERA: 3.98.  WHIP: 1.346

Those are pretty ordinary numbers vs AAA batters. The only area where he excelled was in strikeouts, averaging 10.4 Ks per 9 IP. He could overpower AAA batters. At least those who weren't solving him for about a hit per inning, more than 1 baserunner per inning, and about 4 runs per 9 innings.

It's not as if he didn't have good games in AAA. The problem was consistency. He made it to AAA in 2018 and began poorly. But he reeled off 4 solid starts toward the end of the season before ending with a poor one.
2018 minor league game log

That was encouraging heading in to 2019 but he again started poorly before mixing in both good and bad starts. The Pirates recalled him for a poor MLB debut. He returned to Indy for 2 solid starts so the Bucs again recalled him for 2 more starts-one (3 innings) awful and one (5 innings) so-so. Then it was back to Indy for 8 more starts, 4 of which were good and 4 of which were bad. Those were his last minor league games.
2019 minor league game log

Since then he has mostly struggled against MLB batters. And his better games are generally only 5 innings. In 28 MLB starts he has completed 6 innings only twice with 6.0 innings his career best.

Part of the problem may be his development at AAA. In 29 AAA starts, 15 of them (52%) lasted less than 6 innings. Only 2 of them (7%) lasted longer than 6 innings. Given the fact that he had a lot of poor starts in AAA and that his good starts didn't involve a lot of innings, it might have been more informative to see if he could go longer into games with continued effectiveness. As a result we have a MLB pitcher who often struggled in AAA and whose better AAA games seem to have been cut short to ensure good stats before anything bad could happen. That hints of manipulating his stats to support an agenda to declare him the next great pitching prospect instead of finding out if he's really up to the task.

He has now become so bad and admittedly clueless as to why he can't do better that I think he would really benefit from returning to AAA. He needs to consistently dominate AAA batters, which is something he never previously demonstrated he could do. And he needs to pitch longer into games to show he can sustain effectiveness and not just pull him for the sake of good stats before he has a chance to struggle. IMHO, he still has a lot to prove in the minors.


Sending him down should take some pressure off of him and give him a chance to earn his way back to Pittsburgh.  IMO, he doesn't have the stuff to be a reliever so going to Indy to work on being a starter is better than sending him to the bullpen.
  
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Re: Keller
Reply #3 - Jun 11th, 2021 at 11:24am
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Other than when the previous regime started tooting this guys horn, I never heard about him.

Then, it's all I heard. He has now pitched what is almost the equivalent of a full season. He has 28 starts and has posted 117 IP in those starts.

We can talk about ERA, WHIP, FIP, ERA Plus, WPA, and so on.  The telling number for a SP at some point is innings pitched. What good is a SP if they aren't giving you innings, regardless of the quality of those innings?

The "quality start" that gets used a lot, and often mocked, comes out to an ERA of 4.50. As I've said before, the reason I think that's a good level of average effectiveness is because a guy who pitches to that level isn't going to win you games, but he isn't going to lose you games. He's pitched well enough to keep you in the game. And it's a good measure of a starter who won't tax today's bullpens, going 6 every time.

Keller has averaged less than 4 1/3 IP per start. You can throw every kind of analytic you want out there, to show either how bad he really is, how unlucky he is, how good he might be.

He doesn't go far in games. He's not a starting pitcher. He is a mop up, long inning reliever. At best.

His numbers show it now. From AAA, to an almost full season in the majors over the course of three different seasons.

He's had plenty of time to "figure it out". He's never going to figure it out.

I'm still trying to figure out what he does that's supposed to be exceptional in the first place. I don't see any kind of plus breaking ball, his fastball is above average but looks like it's as straight as an arrow.  Maybe they thought he was the next Greg Maddux with a higher velocity fastball, IDK.

He doesn't have "stuff" and he doesn't look like he has the command to be a "pitcher".

Just my opinion.
  

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Re: Keller
Reply #4 - Jun 11th, 2021 at 12:47pm
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Keller was nothing more than hype from Huntington for a future that never arrives in Pittsburgh.  The current Management's hype for the future that never arrives in Pittsburgh is Jose Soriano.
  
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Re: Keller
Reply #5 - Jun 11th, 2021 at 1:02pm
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shedman wrote on Jun 11th, 2021 at 12:47pm:
Keller was nothing more than hype from Huntington for a future that never arrives in Pittsburgh.  The current Management's hype for the future that never arrives in Pittsburgh is Jose Soriano.   

That's a fictional hype. Make up anything you want. This administration isn't hyping anyone.
  

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Bobster
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Re: Keller
Reply #6 - Jun 11th, 2021 at 1:13pm
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shedman wrote on Jun 11th, 2021 at 12:47pm:
Keller was nothing more than hype from Huntington for a future that never arrives in Pittsburgh.  The current Management's hype for the future that never arrives in Pittsburgh is Jose Soriano.   

For decades, the Prates have been telling their fan base that they will compensate for not spending by developing their own starting pitchers either through the draft or trading for prospects. And for decades they have failed. Just since 2000 there have been the disappointments of Benson, Wells, O. Perez, Burnett, Gorzelanny, Snell, Duke, Maholm, Morton, Locke, Taillon, Kingham and Glasnow. Even Cole never reached his potential until leaving and he is the most success they've had in developing a pitcher in over 20 years. They always need another name to sell to the fans. So now it's Keller. All hype, no substance.
  

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Re: Keller
Reply #7 - Jun 11th, 2021 at 1:52pm
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Bobster wrote on Jun 11th, 2021 at 9:33am:
I know there's a school of thought that says Keller has nothing more to prove in the minors. I think that's the problem. Look at his minor league stats. The dominance he demonstrated through AA disappeared when he reached AAA.

Career AAA Stats:
IP: 156   Hits: 153   ERA: 3.98.  WHIP: 1.346

Those are pretty ordinary numbers vs AAA batters. The only area where he excelled was in strikeouts, averaging 10.4 Ks per 9 IP. He could overpower AAA batters. At least those who weren't solving him for about a hit per inning, more than 1 baserunner per inning, and about 4 runs per 9 innings.

It's not as if he didn't have good games in AAA. The problem was consistency. He made it to AAA in 2018 and began poorly. But he reeled off 4 solid starts toward the end of the season before ending with a poor one.
2018 minor league game log

That was encouraging heading in to 2019 but he again started poorly before mixing in both good and bad starts. The Pirates recalled him for a poor MLB debut. He returned to Indy for 2 solid starts so the Bucs again recalled him for 2 more starts-one (3 innings) awful and one (5 innings) so-so. Then it was back to Indy for 8 more starts, 4 of which were good and 4 of which were bad. Those were his last minor league games.
2019 minor league game log

Since then he has mostly struggled against MLB batters. And his better games are generally only 5 innings. In 28 MLB starts he has completed 6 innings only twice with 6.0 innings his career best.

Part of the problem may be his development at AAA. In 29 AAA starts, 15 of them (52%) lasted less than 6 innings. Only 2 of them (7%) lasted longer than 6 innings. Given the fact that he had a lot of poor starts in AAA and that his good starts didn't involve a lot of innings, it might have been more informative to see if he could go longer into games with continued effectiveness. As a result we have a MLB pitcher who often struggled in AAA and whose better AAA games seem to have been cut short to ensure good stats before anything bad could happen. That hints of manipulating his stats to support an agenda to declare him the next great pitching prospect instead of finding out if he's really up to the task.

He has now become so bad and admittedly clueless as to why he can't do better that I think he would really benefit from returning to AAA. He needs to consistently dominate AAA batters, which is something he never previously demonstrated he could do. And he needs to pitch longer into games to show he can sustain effectiveness and not just pull him for the sake of good stats before he has a chance to struggle. IMHO, he still has a lot to prove in the minors.

definitely agree
  
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shedman
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Re: Keller
Reply #8 - Jun 11th, 2021 at 2:02pm
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Surgnbuck wrote on Jun 11th, 2021 at 1:02pm:
shedman wrote on Jun 11th, 2021 at 12:47pm:
Keller was nothing more than hype from Huntington for a future that never arrives in Pittsburgh.  The current Management's hype for the future that never arrives in Pittsburgh is Jose Soriano.   

That's a fictional hype. Make up anything you want. This administration isn't hyping anyone.

______
This sounds like hype to me:

"One of the Pirates’ top prospects is nearing a return to the mound.

Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said on Wednesday that José Soriano, the club’s No. 25 prospect per MLB Pipeline, is expected to begin a rehab assignment in the next five to seven days.

“There's no magic solution. There's no magic number or games,” Tomczyk said. “We'll take that as we see how the body responds, how the stuff plays with each outing.”
  
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Re: Keller
Reply #9 - Jun 11th, 2021 at 4:03pm
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shedman wrote on Jun 11th, 2021 at 2:02pm:
Surgnbuck wrote on Jun 11th, 2021 at 1:02pm:
shedman wrote on Jun 11th, 2021 at 12:47pm:
Keller was nothing more than hype from Huntington for a future that never arrives in Pittsburgh.  The current Management's hype for the future that never arrives in Pittsburgh is Jose Soriano.   

That's a fictional hype. Make up anything you want. This administration isn't hyping anyone.

______
This sounds like hype to me:

"One of the Pirates’ top prospects is nearing a return to the mound.

Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said on Wednesday that José Soriano, the club’s No. 25 prospect per MLB Pipeline, is expected to begin a rehab assignment in the next five to seven days.

“There's no magic solution. There's no magic number or games,” Tomczyk said. “We'll take that as we see how the body responds, how the stuff plays with each outing.”

That's not hype. Nice stretch though. Maybe Doc's team needs a first baseman.
  

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Re: Keller
Reply #10 - Jun 11th, 2021 at 4:27pm
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You know things are tough when the hype...is all hype.  Smiley
  
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Re: Keller
Reply #11 - Jun 11th, 2021 at 4:39pm
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Surgnbuck wrote on Jun 11th, 2021 at 4:03pm:
shedman wrote on Jun 11th, 2021 at 2:02pm:
Surgnbuck wrote on Jun 11th, 2021 at 1:02pm:
shedman wrote on Jun 11th, 2021 at 12:47pm:
Keller was nothing more than hype from Huntington for a future that never arrives in Pittsburgh.  The current Management's hype for the future that never arrives in Pittsburgh is Jose Soriano.   

That's a fictional hype. Make up anything you want. This administration isn't hyping anyone.

______
This sounds like hype to me:

"One of the Pirates’ top prospects is nearing a return to the mound.

Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said on Wednesday that José Soriano, the club’s No. 25 prospect per MLB Pipeline, is expected to begin a rehab assignment in the next five to seven days.

“There's no magic solution. There's no magic number or games,” Tomczyk said. “We'll take that as we see how the body responds, how the stuff plays with each outing.”

That's not hype. Nice stretch though. Maybe Doc's team needs a first baseman.


Actually, Surge, at our age, everyone wants to play first.
  
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Re: Keller
Reply #12 - Jun 11th, 2021 at 5:11pm
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3pirates3 wrote on Jun 11th, 2021 at 5:08pm:
Well the Padres just signed 44-year old lefty Joe Beimel to a minor league deal.


Shocked
  
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Re: Keller
Reply #13 - Jun 11th, 2021 at 5:58pm
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If he goes to AAA and struggles that could completely destroy any confidence he has at all  - not to be seems like he has much  lately.  As bad as it may be for the major league team, I'd rather he stick it out in majors this whole season and they can make a decision on his future at the end of the season.  Having said that, he needs to be able to go more than two or three innings most of his starts. If he can't even do that then he does need time in AAA.
  
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Re: Keller
Reply #14 - Jun 11th, 2021 at 6:59pm
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What will we know about the guy in September that we don't know today?
  
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