OnlyBucs

The Nats just signed Trevor Williams to a 2 year $13 million contract. Frankly, I would be disappointed if the Pirates brought him back, even if it was for the amount paid out to Velasquez.



BC needs to be talking with both Keller and Contreras about a long term deal.

Mainer, I agree. I'm only wondering if current market conditions, which feature sky high pitcher contracts, are scaring Pittsburgh management off, given the previously cyclical nature of such spending outbursts.



Not that Bob needs a reason to be cheap. ::)

I have supported most of BC's moves to try and rebuild the organization, recognizing that not every move will work out and pay dividends. I also have no real information regarding the financial parameters that Nutting has established in which BC can operate. Frankly, they could be so strict that no one could succeed in Pittsburgh without Zeus or some other mythical god creating a magical path to a championship.



That said, I have a growing concern regarding some of BC's recent moves or the lack of such, including the following:



1 - Losing 11 players in the recent minor league draft when he easily could have protected more of the players (prospects) who had an upside by simply putting them on a AAA roster that had no real meaning. Hard to grow an organization when you are unnecessarily bleeding potential talent.



2 - At present, it looks like next year's catching core at the start of the season may be Heineman (just resigned to a minor league contract) and Delay, both of whom were found wanting by the end of the season. Clearly, the Bucs were never in on the likes of Contreras or Murphy, but I now see that Zunino has signed for $6 mil. This likely means that catchers like Barnhart are even too expensive. BC struck early to acquire 2 first baseman (I am not excited by the acquisition of either Santana or Choi, but at least they are only 1 year deals), but I would rather have used some of that money (nearly $11 mil) to acquire only one 1st baseman and a better quality catcher. Andujar at first should have been at least a platoon option.



3) The cost of pitching has really exploded this off-season; Trevor Williams is but one example. I view a key quality for a general manager is to recognize how the game is changing and to act prior to getting bit in the butt by changes that will hinder the potential success of your organization. I believe BC is making a real mistake by not trying to ink Keller and Contreras to long term deals. Atlanta has made such moves and may have locked up the heart of a decent rotation for the next 5+ years at a fixed (albeit at some expense) cost.



Collectively, the acquisitions of Santana, Choi, Velasquez, Garcia, Moreta, and Hernandez (Rule V) for a total salary commitment of about $18 mil (again, all 1 year deals) don't do a lot for me. The only good news has been gaining the # 1 pick (which was luck, not skill), and the return of the scoreboard. Otherwise, an underwhelming winter to date.

I'm not impressed enough with Keller to be all that upset that he hasn't been extended. I don't know which Keller I'm getting from one start to the next and a short stretch of good performance doesn't change that. I give Cherington a pass on it.

I agree that Keller has often been consistent, and will add that he often has been lousy. However, from July - October, he regularly took the mound (16 starts), and only yielded more than 3 runs in 3 games, and in one of those games, a number of the runs were unearned.



Keller was a different (more mature) pitcher as the season wore on. I would take the risk that he has turned the corner and I would try to sign him to a longer term deal.

I'll agree to disagree.



As things stand, he's not hard to replace.  I'd be willing to extend him after, but not before, he shows more.

406C6463684F786E7E0D0 wrote: I agree that Keller has often been consistent, and will add that he often has been lousy.  However, from July - October, he regularly took the mound (16 starts), and only yielded more than 3 runs in 3 games, and in one of those games, a number of the runs were unearned. 



Keller was a different (more mature) pitcher as the season wore on.   I would take the risk that he has turned the corner and I would try to sign him to a longer term deal.   
On June 6, Keller had an ERA of 5.21. For the rest of the season, covering 15 starts, his ERA was a fine 2.71. That's great improvement. However, in those 15 starts he went 7 innings 2 times. He went 6 innings in 8 of those 15 starts. He went 5 to 5.1 innings on 3 of them and 3.2 innings or less in 2 of those starts.



Considering the Pirates' spending (or lack thereof), I can't believe they would give big money to a starting pitcher who, even in the best of times, covers only 5-6 innings of each game. They pay relievers a lot less and they cover 3-4 innings every game. Nutting's bean counters are likely telling him it's not cost effective to pay big bucks for 5-6 innings when they could get by with cheaper, less effective pitchers since the BP pitches nearly half of every game anyway.

As we all know, Shelton has a bit of a quick hook, even though the bullpen's performance faded as the season wore on. I also note that Keller's innings/start post July was actually pretty decent when compared to other MLB starters.



While I couldn't (quickly) put my hands on the MLB stat for the 2022 season, in 2021, the average start lasted 5.02 innings.



I know signing Keller (and Contreras) to a longer term deal has risks (what move doesn't), but I believe it is time to roll the dice based on what we saw last year. With a Pirate payroll in the range of $55 mil (last year's) and perhaps a high of $70, the team can't afford too many players earning $10+ million, which is what will happen 2 years out if all of the current players remain (and yes I know that anyone who becomes too expensive will be shipped out).