OnlyBucs

I'm going to be in the minority on this, but I've never been a huge Keller fan.

I think he's overrated by Pirates fans (not by the rest of baseball).

I think he's an above-average MLB starter, and that's it. His numbers are mostly pedestrian and he's not consistent. I don't trust him the way people trust big-time No. 1 starters to go out and be great pretty much every time out.

A lot of Pirates fans think of Keller as a No. 1 starter ... because they are comparing him to the rest of the Pirates' starting rotation. The rest of the rotation is terrible. They make Keller look much better than he really is.

Don't get me wrong. I'm glad the Pirates signed him long-term. That was a smart move. It had to be done. But all we were doing was locking up an average starter for several years.

Based on his numbers, Keller would probably be a No. 3 starter, maybe No. 4, for most good teams.

I hope I'm wrong. In an ideal world, Skenes will be starting and dominating in Pittsburgh in very short order, and Keller will become more consistent and a legit No. 2 starter. Man that would be wonderful.

But here's what I expect to happen ... the Pirates screw-up Skenes and keep him in the minors for months, and Keller continues along with his inconsistent starts and his 4.50 ERA. The rest of the rotation is terrible and/or injured and the Pirates lose 100.

Sorry for the downer ... but after watching this franchise for a half-century, how can you not expect the worst? I've been doing it since the 1970s and I keep coming back for more!

I agree about Keller. He's their best and I'm glad they extended him. But on a good staff, he's probably a #3. That's still good, but he's not ace material. At least not yet. Last year he had 18 "quality starts" out of 32. Quality starts aren't too hard to get, requiring just 6 or more innings and 3 or fewer ERs. But Keller managed it in just 56% of his starts. It's also concerning that his ERA for July thru September was 5.24. And his 4.21 ERA last year ranked only 32nd of 44 qualifying pitchers. Ideally, maybe Skenes and someone else (Jones?) passes him in the rotation and lets Keller settle in as a solid #3. Even better, maybe Keller gets better and becomes a legit #1 or #2. But it's possible he never becomes what the Pirates need him to be: a legit #1 instead of a #3 trying to fill the role of a #1.

Bobster wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2024 4:49 pm I agree about Keller. He's their best and I'm glad they extended him. But on a good staff, he's probably a #3. That's still good, but he's not ace material. At least not yet. Last year he had 18 "quality starts" out of 32. Quality starts aren't too hard to get, requiring just 6 or more innings and 3 or fewer ERs. But Keller managed it in just 56% of his starts. It's also concerning that his ERA for July thru September was 5.24. And his 4.21 ERA last year ranked only 32nd of 44 qualifying pitchers. Ideally, maybe Skenes and someone else (Jones?) passes him in the rotation and lets Keller settle in as a solid #3. Even better, maybe Keller gets better and becomes a legit #1 or #2. But it's possible he never becomes what the Pirates need him to be: a legit #1 instead of a #3 trying to fill the role of a #1.

I'm concerned with Keller's velocity so far this season. Is he moving toward TJ or is he reverting back to the pre-2022 Keller?

Starting pitchers have been named for Wednesday and Thursday, Keller is not listed. I was a little concerned when it was reported his velocity was down. I hope he is ok, and the Pirates are just settling him up so his spot falls on Opening Day. It seems the Pirates have had their share of pitchers needing TJ surgery.