OnlyBucs

Mitch Keller just signed a 5yr. 75 million extension

good news

Ecbucs wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:18 pmgood news

When I look at the 19.25 million per year guarantee it still acknowledges that Nutting is cheap.

Possum wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:34 pm

Ecbucs wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:18 pmgood news

When I look at the 19.25 million per year guarantee it still acknowledges that Nutting is cheap.

They are paying him 2 million more this season that what they had previously agreed upon, moving him from 81st highest paid SP to 71st. As he accepted the Pirates offer, one can conclude that he's now being paid more then he would have been asking for had he gone to arbitration.

Based upon salaries already under contract, Keller stacks up this way:
His 15 million salary for 2025, his final arbitration year, will make him the 33rd highest paid starting pitcher in MLB.
His 2026 salary of 16.5 will move him up to 25th in MLB.
His 18 million for 2027 will move him up to 17th in MLB.
His 20 million salary in the final year in 2028 ranks him tied for 11th.

Now certainly, as the years go on, he'll slide down as players sign more lucrative contracts. But as it stands, I'm confused as to where Nutting is being cheap here. No matter what, if a player signs a contract, he signed for what he felt his value was. No one put a gun to his head.

I think it's a fair deal. Pitchers get injured so often that it's a risk guaranteeing 5 years. But Keller had expressed interest in staying and likely wanted that term. He is clearly the Pirates #1, but he's only had one good year and even then, he had a poor ERA of 5.24 after June. So if he gets hurt or regresses, he'll be well paid and if he does great, the Bucs will not have broken the bank to keep him 5 years. Keller could have insisted on fewer years to put himself on the market sooner for a bigger payday if he's dominant. So there's some risk on both sides.