OnlyBucs

The way Nova has pitched so far the Bucs will have an interesting decision to make with regards to Ivan Nova's upcoming free agency. I am sure some team will attempt to overpay for Nova, but what do you think the Bucs should offer ? Would 2 years for $25 million do it, or does 3 years at $39 million get it done?

3/24 would be my starting point. Hope to get him around 3/30.

Man it's so hard to say.  How much do you base on what we've seen as a Pirate?  I know they're different kinds of pitchers but Ivan Nova's career stats look a lot like Jon Niese's. 



Career Whip 1.38 to 1.36

K-bb 2.49 to 2.4

bb/9 2.78 to 2.79

HR/9 1.11 to .99 (in Niese's favor)

Etc.



Now of course he's not Jon Niese, but that doesn't mean he's JA Happ if we don't sign him.  Like you said it's a very interesting decision. 



(I used this: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/reports/compare.asp which doesn't show most advanced stats but was the one I quickly found when thinking of this.)

NH most recent comparables:



They didn't sign Happ and he may win a the Cy Young this year.



They did sign Liriano and he is a major contributor in sabotaging this season and costing two prospects.



Who knows.

3F3332696069616C6B746E590 wrote: The way Nova has pitched so far the Bucs will have an interesting decision to make with regards to Ivan Nova's upcoming free agency. I am sure some team will attempt to overpay for Nova, but what do you think the Bucs should offer ? Would 2 years for $25 million do it, or does 3 years at $39 million get it done?




IMO ,3 years at 39 mill would be the minimum it would take to get it done. Probably a touch more.

786541434D280 wrote: NH most recent comparables:



They didn't sign Happ and he may win a the Cy Young this year.



They did sign Liriano and he is a major contributor in sabotaging this season and costing two prospects.



Who knows.


How come you are forgetting how they got both players? Liriano was strong for the Pirates for three years. Happ was traded for and Huntington was laughed at by many.



People didn't like the Volquez signing or the Nova trade either. People thought Burnett was washed up when he was acquired.



It looks like Huntington got rid of Liriano at a good time too. He was terrible and having a bad attitude.



Also funny how people want Nova to sign now too?

2027362536676A530 wrote: The way Nova has pitched so far the Bucs will have an interesting decision to make with regards to Ivan Nova's upcoming free agency. I am sure some team will attempt to overpay for Nova, but what do you think the Bucs should offer ? Would 2 years for $25 million do it, or does 3 years at $39 million get it done?




IMO ,3 years at 39 mill would be the minimum it would take to get it done. Probably a touch more.


This is where I stand. The lower age is canceled out by lower K-rate than Happ. I would take Nova at 3/40 given the market.

092F22222F3A27204E0 wrote: The way Nova has pitched so far the Bucs will have an interesting decision to make with regards to Ivan Nova's upcoming free agency. I am sure some team will attempt to overpay for Nova, but what do you think the Bucs should offer ? Would 2 years for $25 million do it, or does 3 years at $39 million get it done?




IMO ,3 years at 39 mill would be the minimum it would take to get it done. Probably a touch more.


This is where I stand. The lower age is canceled out by lower K-rate than Happ. I would take Nova at 3/40 given the market.


The SP FA market is so bad I think you are in the right range. It's a great year to be a mediocre SP because the costs for starting arms have run so high. I think the determining point will be if someone offers 4 years -- because we won't. I don't think this will be about money, but # of guaranteed contract years -- just like Happ. We were ready to go market value for Happ, but not number of years Toronto was willing to guarantee.

1736232A122B30233627420 wrote: The way Nova has pitched so far the Bucs will have an interesting decision to make with regards to Ivan Nova's upcoming free agency. I am sure some team will attempt to overpay for Nova, but what do you think the Bucs should offer ? Would 2 years for $25 million do it, or does 3 years at $39 million get it done?




IMO ,3 years at 39 mill would be the minimum it would take to get it done. Probably a touch more.


This is where I stand. The lower age is canceled out by lower K-rate than Happ. I would take Nova at 3/40 given the market.


The SP FA market is so bad I think you are in the right range. It's a great year to be a mediocre SP because the costs for starting arms have run so high. I think the determining point will be if someone offers 4 years -- because we won't. I don't think this will be about money, but # of guaranteed contract years -- just like Happ. We were ready to go market value for Happ, but not number of years Toronto was willing to guarantee.




I would rather trade for somebody than pay Nova over 10 million a year for multiple years. He is pitching lights out but I can't see him sustaining anything close to this.

Just like in 2015 when the Bucs acquired a pitcher in which few were interested in Happ, who went on to have some of the best 2 months of any pitcher acquired at the deadline, the Bucs this year acquired Nova who similarly drew little interest and who has gone on to post some of the best numbers of any pitcher acquired at the deadline. Two complete games in 7 starts is a season worth for the Pirates and many other teams.



I make note of this because many are quick to criticize NH. Two great deadline deals in 2 years when no one - read no one - was giving any fanfare of either of the moves. And, Nova's value next year, like Happ's this past off-season, were all a product of them joining the Pirates and then performing after they got here.



So --- my thoughts on Nova Last year, I stated that I would not go beyond 3 years and $30 mil for Happ, and hoped that they could do a 2 year deal with an option. After looking at what free agent pitchers commanded last year, and recognizing that this year's crop of free agent pitchers is really bad, I believe Nova is in for a big payday.



While the Pirates have little margin for error, and do need to completely rebuild their bullpen for next year, after watching him pitch 2 complete games with low pitch counts and walking nearly no one, I believe the Bucs should be aggressive in pursuing Nova. While Happ was very good last year, he was a 6 inning pitcher. Next year the Bucs likely will have a very young staff and one that often doesn't go deep into a game. In short, Nova could have an exaggerated value to the Bucs simply by helping to save innings for the pen. He also is only 29.



Thus, I offer 3 years at $13 mil per year, and an option for year 4, with a $2,000,000 buy-out. Unfortunately, they may not even be enough when qualifying offers are topping $15 mil.